Weekly structural research · CBOE · Market

PSFM Stage Analysis

PACER SWAN SOS FLEX (APRIL) ETF

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 35.80Tenure ExtendedBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 80−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 71/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 84/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +19.5%USD 29.97 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	35.80	34.53	-1.19	524	Upward Expansion	80	71
2026-09-25	35.76	34.41	-1.53	1262	Upward Expansion	81	72
2026-09-18	35.59	34.29	-0.80	1293	Upward Expansion	70	68
2026-09-11	35.58	34.17	-0.97	32	Upward Expansion	70	68
2026-09-04	35.66	34.05	-1.54	753	Upward Expansion	80	81
2026-08-28	35.56	33.93	-1.79	41	Upward Expansion	77	84
2026-08-21	35.44	33.82	-1.72	2461	Upward Expansion	75	77
2026-08-14	35.52	33.70	-2.95	419	Upward Expansion	88	75
2026-08-07	35.42	33.58	-3.14	109	Upward Expansion	91	76
2026-07-31	35.09	33.47	-0.81	1157	Upward Expansion	79	83
2026-07-24	34.84	33.36	-0.53	141	Upward Expansion	66	82
2026-07-17	34.88	33.26	-1.05	1150	Upward Expansion	70	80
2026-07-10	35.03	33.16	-2.24	741	Upward Expansion	82	72
2026-07-03	34.83	33.04	-1.57	1874	Upward Expansion	75	68
2026-06-26	34.51	32.94	-0.46	1173	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-06-19	34.78	32.84	-2.17	1577	Upward Expansion	75	69
2026-06-12	34.62	32.72	-1.85	12059	Upward Expansion	69	68
2026-06-05	34.51	32.61	-1.73	9862	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-05-29	34.79	32.50	-3.55	10497	Upward Expansion	84	74
2026-05-22	34.58	32.39	-2.93	3664	Upward Expansion	80	83
2026-05-15	34.45	32.28	-2.60	40861	Upward Expansion	80	93
2026-05-08	34.43	32.17	-2.60	10684	Upward Expansion	88	96
2026-05-01	34.20	32.06	-1.18	3084	Upward Expansion	89	96
2026-04-24	34.04	31.96	-0.87	34313	Upward Expansion	94	98
2026-04-17	33.95	31.86	-0.75	6259	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-04-10	33.31	31.77	1.55	13209	Upward Expansion	93	78
2026-04-03	32.58	31.69	2.78	15752	Upward Expansion	87	64
2026-03-27	32.04	31.64	4.36	7160	Upward Expansion	48	43
2026-03-20	32.08	31.60	2.13	742	Upward Expansion	62	59
2026-03-13	32.10	31.55	0.23	525	Upward Expansion	64	63
2026-03-06	32.07	31.51	-1.49	646	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-02-27	32.21	31.46	-3.19	15096	Upward Expansion	87	88
2026-02-20	32.08	31.40	-4.21	1799	Upward Expansion	73	69
2026-02-13	32.05	31.35	-3.39	4033	Upward Expansion	71	68
2026-02-06	32.01	31.29	-4.90	2839	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-01-30	32.05	31.24	-5.14	1082	Upward Expansion	77	77
2026-01-23	32.03	31.18	-5.00	810	Upward Expansion	80	82
2026-01-16	31.96	31.11	-5.71	1	Upward Expansion	77	85
2026-01-09	31.95	31.04	-6.23	242	Upward Expansion	82	88
2026-01-02	31.85	30.96	-5.25	2090	Upward Expansion	77	85
2025-12-26	31.86	30.89	-6.34	2882	Upward Expansion	83	91
2025-12-19	31.76	30.80	-5.47	815	Upward Expansion	82	86
2025-12-12	31.66	30.72	-5.83	907	Upward Expansion	81	71
2025-12-05	31.61	30.64	-6.65	1282	Upward Expansion	84	71
2025-11-28	31.57	30.55	-6.61	725	Upward Expansion	86	70
2025-11-21	31.19	30.45	-4.48	2354	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-11-14	31.29	30.36	-6.13	17983	Upward Expansion	66	67
2025-11-07	31.30	30.23	-6.11	2700	Upward Expansion	69	68
2025-10-31	31.38	30.11	-7.57	14	Upward Expansion	82	72
2025-10-24	31.38	29.96	-7.09	257	Upward Expansion	87	74
2025-10-17	31.16	29.86	-6.12	417	Upward Expansion	72	72
2025-10-10	31.03	29.78	-5.04	686	Upward Expansion	68	83
2025-10-03	31.21	29.71	-6.92	468	Upward Expansion	78	86
2025-09-26	31.14	29.65	-6.27	3185	Upward Expansion	77	87
2025-09-19	31.14	29.62	-6.69	0	Upward Expansion	81	84
2025-09-12	31.06	29.59	-5.93	2007	Upward Expansion	82	87
2025-09-05	30.91	29.58	-5.05	2118	Upward Expansion	76	89
2025-08-29	30.84	29.56	-5.13	53699	Upward Expansion	76	89
2025-08-22	30.80	29.54	-5.41	46397	Upward Expansion	78	89
2025-08-15	30.74	29.53	-5.45	2715	Upward Expansion	80	91
2025-08-08	30.64	29.51	-4.98	1596	Upward Expansion	77	88
2025-08-01	30.33	29.47	-3.76	2081	Rotation Up	67	86
2025-07-25	30.57	29.46	-5.48	2476	Rotation Up	52	81
2025-07-18	30.38	29.44	-4.77	4412	Rotation Up	47	75
2025-07-11	30.32	29.42	-4.47	9392	Rotation Up	40	69
2025-07-04	30.30	29.41	-4.87	6072	Rotation Up	41	62
2025-06-27	30.10	29.40	-4.03	7441	Rotation Up	36	51
2025-06-20	29.63	29.40	-2.35	1506	Rotation Up	24	36
2025-06-13	29.60	29.40	-2.67	5177	Balance	23	28
2025-06-06	29.67	29.40	-2.88	2898	Balance	6	22
2025-05-30	29.38	29.40	-2.33	3936	Downward Expansion	-12	21
2025-05-23	29.12	29.39	-1.57	5723	Downward Expansion	-23	25
2025-05-16	29.51	29.40	-2.85	602	Downward Expansion	-21	22
2025-05-09	28.71	29.39	-0.59	16730	Downward Expansion	-44	29
2025-05-02	28.75	29.41	-0.93	53031	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2025-04-25	28.28	29.42	0.21	2788	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2025-04-18	27.51	29.44	1.91	2075	Downward Expansion	-73	87
2025-04-11	27.64	29.49	0.94	12795	Rotation Down	-74	87
2025-04-04	26.81	29.52	3.40	39234	Rotation Down	-68	87
2025-03-28	28.47	29.55	-0.12	21371	Rotation Down	-46	62
2025-03-21	28.90	29.56	-0.13	3096	Deceleration	-39	45
2025-03-14	28.84	29.54	0.11	4702	Deceleration	-19	27
2025-03-07	29.47	29.53	-0.07	2425	Upward Expansion	17	14
2025-02-28	30.20	29.46	-0.84	1309	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-02-21	30.34	29.38	-1.40	5466	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-02-14	30.56	29.29	-2.38	2414	Upward Expansion	77	84
2025-02-07	30.34	29.21	-1.78	1582	Upward Expansion	69	70
2025-01-31	30.30	29.14	-2.20	10195	Upward Expansion	69	56
2025-01-24	30.40	29.07	-3.00	8367	Deceleration	76	55
2025-01-17	30.16	28.99	-2.27	3096	Deceleration	62	45
2025-01-10	29.59	28.91	-1.46	4131	Upward Expansion	46	39
2025-01-03	29.88	28.85	-2.58	6590	Upward Expansion	61	55
2024-12-27	29.92	28.77	-3.14	19063	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-12-20	29.76	28.68	-3.22	6841	Upward Expansion	68	82
2024-12-13	30.04	28.60	-4.29	2371	Upward Expansion	74	90
2024-12-06	30.13	28.51	-4.77	1340	Upward Expansion	82	92
2024-11-29	30.02	28.40	-4.53	1227	Upward Expansion	83	89
2024-11-22	29.77	28.29	-4.39	3429	Upward Expansion	79	76
2024-11-15	29.51	28.19	-3.86	727	Upward Expansion	71	71
2024-11-08	29.79	28.07	-5.19	3000	Upward Expansion	86	78
2024-11-01	29.03	27.97	-3.44	6979	Upward Expansion	66	64
2024-10-25	29.24	27.89	-4.32	1411	Upward Expansion	69	79
2024-10-18	29.37	27.81	-5.05	2672	Upward Expansion	78	85
2024-10-11	29.23	27.73	-4.94	2270	Upward Expansion	76	81
2024-10-04	29.01	27.65	-4.76	5114	Upward Expansion	75	77
2024-09-27	28.98	27.58	-4.85	7172	Upward Expansion	77	58
2024-09-20	28.85	27.50	-4.93	1234	Upward Expansion	78	60
2024-09-13	28.60	27.43	-4.64	2516	Upward Expansion	72	62
2024-09-06	27.85	27.36	-3.58	784	Upward Expansion	60	54
2024-08-30	28.63	27.32	-5.13	2424	Upward Expansion	79	66
2024-08-23	28.54	27.25	-5.35	32791	Deceleration	77	51
2024-08-16	28.34	27.18	-4.85	8806	Deceleration	63	36
2024-08-09	27.57	27.11	-3.92	31120	Upward Expansion	41	26
2024-08-02	27.52	27.06	-4.20	9957	Upward Expansion	51	47
2024-07-26	27.89	27.00	-5.11	2764	Upward Expansion	66	70
2024-07-19	28.02	26.94	-5.60	344	Upward Expansion	68	82
2024-07-12	28.35	26.87	-6.49	3216	Upward Expansion	85	92
2024-07-05	28.21	26.78	-6.22	1034	Upward Expansion	86	91
2024-06-28	27.89	26.69	-5.71	11398	Upward Expansion	78	83
2024-06-21	27.85	26.60	-6.02	4501	Upward Expansion	84	84
2024-06-14	27.75	26.51	-5.95	7550	Upward Expansion	86	89
2024-06-07	27.49	26.42	-5.44	18306	Upward Expansion	80	88
2024-05-31	27.23	26.32	-5.34	51655	Upward Expansion	69	83
2024-05-24	27.33	26.23	-5.51	22250	Upward Expansion	81	84
2024-05-17	27.28	26.10	-5.86	22970	Deceleration	83	61
2024-05-10	27.01	25.98	-5.42	9603	Deceleration	61	33
2024-05-03	26.68	25.89	-5.01	9134	Deceleration	37	30
2024-04-26	26.56	25.80	-5.05	11346	Deceleration	33	30
2024-04-19	26.07	25.72	-4.46	2585	Upward Expansion	23	28
2024-04-12	26.60	25.65	-5.67	19871	Upward Expansion	56	61
2024-04-05	26.81	25.58	-6.49	28242	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-03-29	26.90	25.51	-7.17	3404	Upward Expansion	76	75
2024-03-22	26.88	25.44	-7.10	6531	Upward Expansion	77	81
2024-03-15	26.82	25.35	-5.47	3806	Upward Expansion	76	73
2024-03-08	26.81	25.27	-5.78	6888	Upward Expansion	79	82
2024-03-01	26.75	25.19	-6.44	13675	Upward Expansion	79	88
2024-02-23	26.71	25.11	-5.85	24383	Upward Expansion	81	93
2024-02-16	26.59	25.05	-4.88	3438	Upward Expansion	78	92
2024-02-09	26.58	24.99	-5.35	6320	Upward Expansion	82	93
2024-02-02	26.47	24.92	-4.55	7679	Upward Expansion	83	93
2024-01-26	26.38	24.85	-3.60	731	Upward Expansion	82	89
2024-01-19	26.26	24.78	-3.15	3836	Upward Expansion	81	86
2024-01-12	26.11	24.71	-2.64	7949	Upward Expansion	79	88
2024-01-05	25.78	24.65	-2.14	22939	Upward Expansion	68	87
2023-12-29	25.98	24.59	-3.01	4883	Upward Expansion	82	93
2023-12-22	25.86	24.52	-3.26	1388	Upward Expansion	84	93
2023-12-15	25.77	24.44	-2.83	6144	Upward Expansion	86	93
2023-12-08	25.39	24.36	-2.05	2448	Upward Expansion	79	88
2023-12-01	25.34	24.28	-2.09	9578	Upward Expansion	80	86
2023-11-24	25.18	24.21	-1.88	746	Deceleration	78	59
2023-11-17	25.00	24.15	-1.66	15620	Deceleration	60	37
2023-11-10	24.59	24.09	-1.05	3632	Deceleration	37	20
2023-11-03	24.36	24.04	-0.63	8250	Deceleration	-9	21
2023-10-27	23.40	24.00	0.99	508	Deceleration	-49	61
2023-10-20	23.82	23.98	0.23	6630	Deceleration	-16	28
2023-10-13	24.20	23.96	-0.61	30951	Deceleration	5	23

Price vs TrendAbove+3.7%

Trend directionRising+3.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+19.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.4%

Price momentumPositive+9.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.66×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

80 / ±100

+0.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

71 /100

-9.4 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PSFM Directional State ↗ PSFM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance6

Rotation Up65

Upward Expansion90

Deceleration61

Rotation Down29

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 77%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 5%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2026-10-02	Extended	+16.9%
Rotation Up	2025-06-20	2025-08-01	Developing	+2.4%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-06-13	New	-0.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-05-30	Developing	+6.8%
Rotation Down	2025-03-28	2025-04-11	New	-2.9%
Deceleration	2025-03-14	2025-03-21	New	+0.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-31	2025-03-07	Developing	-2.7%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-01-24	New	+0.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-30	2025-01-10	Established	+3.4%
Deceleration	2024-08-16	2024-08-23	New	+0.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-24	2024-08-09	Developing	+0.9%
Deceleration	2024-04-26	2024-05-17	New	+2.7%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-01	2024-04-19	Established	+2.9%
Deceleration	2023-09-01	2023-11-24	Established	+1.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing86

Stage 3 · Distribution71

Stage 4 · Declining14

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 54/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.19
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +9.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -7.8%
Sector regime cohort: 92th percentile941 in cohort

Test PSFM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.21×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.66×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PSFM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 35.71rising

Slow Activity USD 35.09rising

Trend Reference USD 34.53+3.7% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 29.97+19.5% close margin

Structural low USD 32.57shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +0.5%

Annualized volatility +4.7%

From structural high +0.0%

From structural low +15.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	41	+0.9%-5.7% to +5.8%	+87.8%	+87.8%	-0.5%	+87.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	+3.1%-2.7% to +7.6%	+92.9%	+92.9%	-1.8%	+85.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+7.2%-2.1% to +10.7%	+85.7%	+85.7%	-2.0%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+13.7%+5.2% to +18.5%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-9.6%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PSFM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map