Weekly structural research · ASX · Utilities

ORG Stage Analysis

Origin Energy Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close AUD 10.84Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Emerging rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -18−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 16/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 57/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +7.8%AUD 10.05 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	10.84	11.39	-3.64	18582768	Rotation Up	-18	16
2026-09-18	11.66	11.43	2.65	26837186	Rotation Up	32	48
2026-09-11	11.57	11.44	1.65	19503913	Rotation Up	29	43
2026-09-04	11.35	11.44	-3.27	21071799	Rotation Up	3	33
2026-08-28	11.41	11.42	-3.83	18961728	Downward Expansion	4	31
2026-08-21	11.59	11.42	-2.16	3496621	Downward Expansion	1	23
2026-08-14	11.76	11.42	-1.45	5631916	Downward Expansion	-12	16
2026-08-07	10.54	11.38	-13.16	2088526	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2026-07-31	10.48	11.40	-11.09	4922961	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2026-07-24	10.62	11.42	-8.00	2773943	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2026-07-17	10.53	11.43	-9.18	5053307	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2026-07-10	10.47	11.44	-9.94	2206134	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2026-07-03	10.36	11.47	-11.42	3901482	Rotation Down	-77	63
2026-06-26	10.96	11.51	-5.47	3928994	Rotation Down	-34	44
2026-06-19	10.75	11.52	-7.91	9012319	Rotation Down	-42	59
2026-06-12	11.09	11.54	-4.74	2882755	Rotation Down	-27	56
2026-06-05	10.89	11.56	-4.54	12142520	Rotation Down	-31	58
2026-05-29	10.87	11.59	-5.77	8381349	Upward Expansion	-33	48
2026-05-22	10.90	11.62	-4.66	20662909	Upward Expansion	-32	34
2026-05-15	11.49	11.66	0.81	17228648	Upward Expansion	16	16
2026-05-08	11.38	11.68	-1.34	16028770	Upward Expansion	23	14
2026-05-01	12.07	11.70	4.86	22606286	Upward Expansion	57	37
2026-04-24	12.77	11.70	10.43	12523984	Upward Expansion	71	66
2026-04-17	12.47	11.68	6.24	17539699	Upward Expansion	62	61
2026-04-10	12.38	11.67	5.55	20282109	Rotation Up	61	57
2026-04-03	12.59	11.66	12.34	19763553	Rotation Up	44	48
2026-03-27	12.46	11.64	12.41	23303380	Rotation Up	44	44
2026-03-20	12.01	11.64	9.79	32652928	Rotation Up	25	35
2026-03-13	11.63	11.65	4.20	24859460	Rotation Up	17	33
2026-03-06	11.94	11.67	4.28	17756544	Balance	25	31
2026-02-27	11.85	11.65	-0.23	20790454	Balance	20	21
2026-02-20	11.90	11.63	1.54	21116926	Balance	2	12
2026-02-13	11.78	11.62	2.58	22503594	Downward Expansion	-16	14
2026-02-06	10.64	11.60	-4.85	18839182	Downward Expansion	-66	34
2026-01-30	11.51	11.62	1.26	11774846	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2026-01-23	11.44	11.58	1.01	13946637	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2026-01-16	10.67	11.55	-6.20	15790373	Rotation Down	-71	56
2026-01-09	11.08	11.54	-0.59	8929505	Rotation Down	-33	46
2026-01-02	11.06	11.53	-0.83	5533208	Rotation Down	-36	47
2025-12-26	11.05	11.50	-1.25	4840424	Rotation Down	-38	47
2025-12-19	10.84	11.47	-1.51	24970245	Rotation Down	-38	48
2025-12-12	11.37	11.46	2.53	12884306	Rotation Down	-22	37
2025-12-05	11.40	11.43	3.77	14181250	Deceleration	-20	33
2025-11-28	11.39	11.40	4.17	24180172	Deceleration	-1	19
2025-11-21	11.15	11.37	4.53	13754928	Deceleration	-10	18
2025-11-14	11.80	11.32	8.05	10203806	Deceleration	21	12
2025-11-07	11.66	11.25	5.48	10918026	Deceleration	32	17
2025-10-31	11.95	11.18	7.04	15535717	Deceleration	40	26
2025-10-24	12.20	11.09	8.04	10151912	Deceleration	49	33
2025-10-17	11.93	11.03	6.33	12861679	Deceleration	44	34
2025-10-10	11.98	10.97	7.58	12181147	Upward Expansion	47	41
2025-10-03	11.97	10.90	7.45	16914264	Upward Expansion	50	44
2025-09-26	12.23	10.82	12.58	14829789	Upward Expansion	64	55
2025-09-19	12.24	10.75	13.33	19951219	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-09-12	12.09	10.67	11.27	17467799	Upward Expansion	65	77
2025-09-05	12.11	10.59	11.81	17053707	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-08-29	12.31	10.50	12.75	17295803	Upward Expansion	75	87
2025-08-22	12.42	10.41	14.35	30550972	Upward Expansion	84	82
2025-08-15	12.17	10.34	12.94	16058216	Upward Expansion	84	80
2025-08-08	11.37	10.28	7.56	9028848	Upward Expansion	65	75
2025-08-01	11.20	10.25	7.84	15505784	Upward Expansion	62	75
2025-07-25	11.47	10.21	10.52	11776219	Upward Expansion	74	77
2025-07-18	11.43	10.16	9.25	13322042	Upward Expansion	77	68
2025-07-11	11.19	10.11	9.36	18431218	Upward Expansion	72	47
2025-07-04	10.31	10.06	0.60	10471433	Upward Expansion	37	24
2025-06-27	10.33	10.04	1.86	14632646	Upward Expansion	48	26
2025-06-20	10.38	10.03	2.36	24300056	Upward Expansion	50	29
2025-06-13	10.91	10.02	6.96	13410285	Upward Expansion	70	42
2025-06-06	10.09	9.98	-0.54	11839688	Upward Expansion	52	34
2025-05-30	10.31	9.95	2.59	28355501	Upward Expansion	56	57
2025-05-23	10.53	9.91	5.75	12511055	Upward Expansion	62	62
2025-05-16	10.41	9.86	4.91	16111719	Balance	57	52
2025-05-09	10.51	9.81	7.49	25329024	Balance	59	42
2025-05-02	10.34	9.78	5.96	17005027	Balance	45	18
2025-04-25	9.83	9.75	4.30	5981038	Balance	-7	12
2025-04-18	9.69	9.73	4.88	8969729	Balance	-6	11
2025-04-11	9.53	9.72	5.59	25347280	Balance	6	6
2025-04-04	9.36	9.70	3.70	22674440	Balance	0	3
2025-03-28	10.16	9.69	8.39	11795979	Balance	44	31
2025-03-21	10.19	9.65	9.79	17090473	Balance	45	27
2025-03-14	9.89	9.60	8.85	17515185	Balance	29	17
2025-03-07	9.72	9.56	5.18	22587022	Balance	13	7
2025-02-28	10.14	9.55	7.06	23114075	Upward Expansion	37	24
2025-02-21	9.87	9.53	3.05	21634376	Upward Expansion	20	25
2025-02-14	9.56	9.52	-2.92	23392924	Upward Expansion	17	19
2025-02-07	9.26	9.52	-5.25	24468887	Upward Expansion	15	11
2025-01-31	9.68	9.53	-1.01	18178666	Upward Expansion	56	41
2025-01-24	10.52	9.53	9.52	14425864	Upward Expansion	76	78
2025-01-17	10.33	9.51	9.31	13826942	Upward Expansion	72	74
2025-01-10	10.27	9.48	9.37	11710124	Upward Expansion	72	61
2025-01-03	10.11	9.44	8.77	4951077	Upward Expansion	67	45
2024-12-27	10.04	9.42	8.37	3916338	Upward Expansion	66	43
2024-12-20	9.76	9.39	8.37	21227988	Upward Expansion	57	50
2024-12-13	9.64	9.37	4.50	13075198	Upward Expansion	60	70
2024-12-06	9.85	9.35	5.53	12230081	Upward Expansion	61	74
2024-11-29	10.07	9.32	8.13	31420774	Upward Expansion	73	76
2024-11-22	10.19	9.27	10.33	18223549	Upward Expansion	68	64
2024-11-15	9.63	9.23	5.86	12781371	Balance	20	10
2024-11-08	9.18	9.20	1.02	10693433	Balance	-18	18
2024-11-01	9.01	9.19	1.28	14371015	Balance	-22	15
2024-10-25	8.95	9.16	-0.37	13039449	Balance	6	6
2024-10-18	9.09	9.14	0.15	13768374	Deceleration	27	20
2024-10-11	9.49	9.11	5.29	11888586	Deceleration	44	33
2024-10-04	9.58	9.07	7.18	21382953	Deceleration	47	30
2024-09-27	9.22	9.02	2.50	16011245	Deceleration	22	13
2024-09-20	9.35	8.97	4.04	23828074	Deceleration	15	11
2024-09-13	9.01	8.93	1.66	16017513	Deceleration	-19	29
2024-09-06	8.90	8.88	1.73	21034805	Deceleration	-3	25
2024-08-30	8.97	8.83	1.61	27926419	Deceleration	2	22
2024-08-23	8.82	8.77	0.88	25086064	Deceleration	-5	18
2024-08-16	8.70	8.72	0.31	36933432	Deceleration	7	14
2024-08-09	9.45	8.67	11.75	14024757	Deceleration	43	33
2024-08-02	9.49	8.59	10.40	26628486	Upward Expansion	47	39
2024-07-26	9.46	8.52	10.81	11962070	Upward Expansion	61	53
2024-07-19	9.57	8.45	11.80	12868449	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-07-12	9.58	8.38	12.47	13414245	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-07-05	9.70	8.29	16.26	19173621	Upward Expansion	73	67
2024-06-28	9.78	8.20	18.52	15556629	Upward Expansion	84	71
2024-06-21	9.69	8.11	17.56	27755553	Upward Expansion	87	72
2024-06-14	9.08	8.03	11.62	13814684	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-06-07	9.32	7.98	13.00	16256599	Upward Expansion	77	82
2024-05-31	9.18	7.92	13.91	14400610	Upward Expansion	73	75
2024-05-24	9.33	7.86	15.84	18996885	Upward Expansion	88	82
2024-05-17	8.93	7.82	10.12	13860268	Upward Expansion	74	68
2024-05-10	8.94	7.79	11.51	18260091	Upward Expansion	78	77
2024-05-03	8.68	7.76	10.31	12620996	Upward Expansion	68	82
2024-04-26	8.74	7.72	12.19	9370388	Upward Expansion	74	86
2024-04-19	8.79	7.69	13.28	19243959	Upward Expansion	83	89
2024-04-12	8.80	7.65	10.59	20842042	Upward Expansion	90	92
2024-04-05	8.36	7.61	5.58	19013615	Upward Expansion	75	85
2024-03-29	8.28	7.58	3.22	16480785	Upward Expansion	76	87
2024-03-22	8.22	7.55	4.23	20854864	Upward Expansion	78	87
2024-03-15	8.21	7.52	5.65	27575471	Rotation Up	81	85
2024-03-08	8.04	7.49	1.28	19781393	Rotation Up	43	68
2024-03-01	7.86	7.47	0.38	23897343	Rotation Up	36	58
2024-02-23	7.91	7.44	2.54	70475383	Balance	38	44
2024-02-16	7.62	7.42	-1.28	71410972	Balance	2	10
2024-02-09	7.31	7.41	-4.71	23291879	Balance	-34	18
2024-02-02	7.39	7.41	-4.07	37498747	Balance	-36	21
2024-01-26	7.23	7.41	-4.12	11384930	Balance	-39	22
2024-01-19	7.09	7.40	-3.90	16788813	Balance	-47	23
2024-01-12	7.21	7.41	-3.11	14307860	Balance	-13	11
2024-01-05	7.36	7.41	-0.82	14264009	Rotation Down	-13	13
2023-12-29	7.39	7.40	-1.53	6296668	Rotation Down	-29	30
2023-12-22	7.33	7.39	-1.07	28156088	Rotation Down	-25	50
2023-12-15	6.96	7.39	-5.15	36639423	Rotation Down	-34	57
2023-12-08	6.84	7.39	-3.44	72203117	Deceleration	-45	48
2023-12-01	7.14	7.40	2.58	55780007	Deceleration	-31	30
2023-11-24	7.47	7.40	8.06	39675218	Deceleration	17	24
2023-11-17	7.50	7.39	8.75	186606891	Deceleration	29	23
2023-11-10	7.55	7.37	10.93	184641391	Upward Expansion	41	27
2023-11-03	7.31	7.36	7.87	142296838	Upward Expansion	44	44
2023-10-27	8.04	7.35	22.03	22408181	Upward Expansion	78	88
2023-10-20	8.02	7.32	21.70	65360833	Upward Expansion	83	89
2023-10-13	8.09	7.28	21.37	64692245	Upward Expansion	93	92
2023-10-06	7.61	7.24	16.80	24336946	Upward Expansion	66	76

Price vs TrendBelow-4.9%

Trend directionFalling-0.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+7.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-4.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.8%

Price momentumNegative-13.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.90×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-18 / ±100

-21.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

16 /100

-14.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ORG Directional State ↗ ORG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance45

Rotation Up34

Upward Expansion33

Deceleration40

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion48

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 44%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 8%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-09-04	2026-09-25	New	-4.5%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-08-28	Developing	+9.0%
Rotation Down	2026-06-05	2026-07-03	Developing	-4.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-05-29	Developing	-12.8%
Rotation Up	2026-03-13	2026-04-10	Developing	+6.4%
Balance	2026-02-20	2026-03-06	New	+0.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-02-13	New	+3.0%
Rotation Down	2025-12-12	2026-01-16	Developing	-6.2%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-12-05	Developing	-4.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-10-10	Established	+13.8%
Balance	2025-03-07	2025-05-16	Developing	+7.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-02-28	Established	-0.5%
Balance	2024-10-25	2024-11-15	New	+7.6%
Deceleration	2024-08-09	2024-10-18	Developing	-3.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing59

Stage 2 · Advancing21

Stage 3 · Distribution56

Stage 4 · Declining79

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 67/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.64
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -13.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -14.7%
Utilities regime cohort: 33th percentile3 in cohort

Test ORG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.78×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.90×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ORG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 11.31falling

Slow Activity AUD 11.18falling

Trend Reference AUD 11.39-4.9% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 10.05+7.8% close margin

Structural low AUD 10.30shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +4.0%

Annualized volatility +25.8%

From structural high -15.6%

From structural low +5.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	+2.9%-8.1% to +6.4%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+2.1%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+4.3%-6.9% to +16.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+13.3%-0.5% to +21.8%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+10.3%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+28.9%+19.2% to +30.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+23.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ORG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map