Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

KPG Stage Analysis

Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 4.22Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Emerging rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -2−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 14/100directional strength

Maturity 66/100lifecycle context

Confidence 64/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -45.0%AUD 7.67 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	4.22	4.33	-26.98	114121	Rotation Up	-2	14
2026-10-02	4.34	4.37	-26.09	148542	Rotation Up	17	20
2026-09-25	4.27	4.40	-28.51	576320	Rotation Up	30	38
2026-09-18	5.00	4.46	-18.49	162812	Rotation Up	51	78
2026-09-11	4.89	4.53	-21.71	246491	Rotation Up	42	75
2026-09-04	5.06	4.59	-22.72	48575	Rotation Up	57	79
2026-08-28	4.65	4.61	-30.85	456958	Balance	22	37
2026-08-21	4.39	4.67	-35.60	40687	Balance	4	24
2026-08-14	4.40	4.77	-36.93	20259	Downward Expansion	-3	17
2026-08-07	4.35	4.89	-39.69	9376	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2026-07-31	4.10	5.02	-42.34	11984	Downward Expansion	-43	36
2026-07-24	3.95	5.17	-44.28	11513	Downward Expansion	-47	43
2026-07-17	3.87	5.30	-46.57	36186	Downward Expansion	-51	50
2026-07-10	3.96	5.46	-46.51	172580	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2026-07-03	4.03	5.58	-46.78	120955	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2026-06-26	3.62	5.74	-52.61	113740	Downward Expansion	-73	78
2026-06-19	3.57	5.90	-54.44	39711	Downward Expansion	-78	79
2026-06-12	3.80	6.07	-52.22	91229	Downward Expansion	-72	74
2026-06-05	4.01	6.25	-49.40	507604	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2026-05-29	3.91	6.42	-52.05	60271	Downward Expansion	-75	82
2026-05-22	4.07	6.61	-50.48	343078	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2026-05-15	4.24	6.81	-49.04	408034	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2026-05-08	4.51	7.01	-47.36	261800	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2026-05-01	4.30	7.22	-50.63	282210	Downward Expansion	-70	59
2026-04-24	4.39	7.42	-50.84	670887	Downward Expansion	-71	59
2026-04-17	4.68	7.62	-49.38	421839	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2026-04-10	4.90	7.82	-47.94	502341	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2026-04-03	4.69	8.01	-48.71	440844	Downward Expansion	-73	77
2026-03-27	4.90	8.21	-46.77	884455	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2026-03-20	4.80	8.40	-48.05	778550	Downward Expansion	-80	78
2026-03-13	5.32	8.59	-44.54	586932	Downward Expansion	-77	62
2026-03-06	5.48	8.76	-45.23	956059	Downward Expansion	-78	61
2026-02-27	6.05	8.92	-42.79	542729	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2026-02-20	7.15	9.09	-32.55	368915	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2026-02-13	6.43	9.22	-39.06	1073513	Downward Expansion	-69	85
2026-02-06	5.71	9.39	-45.28	1915346	Downward Expansion	-87	88
2026-01-30	6.65	9.56	-38.13	690955	Downward Expansion	-83	69
2026-01-23	7.18	9.70	-33.80	787752	Downward Expansion	-77	55
2026-01-16	8.05	9.81	-26.71	624758	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2026-01-09	8.35	9.89	-22.81	758378	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2026-01-02	8.40	9.96	-22.76	273470	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2025-12-26	8.10	10.04	-26.20	407988	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2025-12-19	8.47	10.12	-22.01	427079	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2025-12-12	7.79	10.18	-29.18	328499	Downward Expansion	-86	90
2025-12-05	8.55	10.29	-22.08	320149	Downward Expansion	-74	84
2025-11-28	8.69	10.40	-20.80	175657	Downward Expansion	-74	86
2025-11-21	8.62	10.51	-19.72	124373	Downward Expansion	-83	88
2025-11-14	9.05	10.59	-17.93	762931	Downward Expansion	-77	79
2025-11-07	9.10	10.66	-18.82	300340	Downward Expansion	-80	76
2025-10-31	9.55	10.70	-15.84	307694	Balance	-72	57
2025-10-24	10.20	10.72	-11.40	246468	Balance	-55	34
2025-10-17	10.37	10.75	-9.51	249009	Balance	-49	29
2025-10-10	10.55	10.78	-7.35	225362	Balance	-44	24
2025-10-03	10.55	10.82	-7.36	119670	Balance	-44	22
2025-09-26	10.38	10.90	-6.46	126087	Balance	-50	23
2025-09-19	10.48	10.98	-5.06	274114	Balance	-47	20
2025-09-12	10.73	11.08	-3.43	211009	Balance	-44	21
2025-09-05	10.76	11.15	-2.89	177634	Balance	-45	31
2025-08-29	10.61	11.18	-5.05	232893	Balance	-49	40
2025-08-22	10.38	11.22	-6.78	202831	Balance	-51	39
2025-08-15	10.44	11.24	-5.70	278556	Balance	-50	28
2025-08-08	10.34	11.25	-5.02	360584	Balance	-40	18
2025-08-01	11.15	11.24	4.30	106835	Balance	-12	12
2025-07-25	10.82	11.23	1.54	142188	Balance	-28	16
2025-07-18	11.69	11.22	8.97	133434	Balance	-15	11
2025-07-11	10.77	11.17	2.97	85752	Balance	-37	20
2025-07-04	10.80	11.15	3.47	208374	Balance	-49	26
2025-06-27	10.60	11.11	3.14	198125	Balance	-25	27
2025-06-20	10.46	11.07	2.18	257467	Balance	-29	35
2025-06-13	10.55	11.02	2.90	290207	Balance	-26	37
2025-06-06	10.58	10.98	3.93	190650	Balance	-24	31
2025-05-30	10.62	10.90	5.81	155613	Deceleration	-13	17
2025-05-23	10.25	10.82	3.42	354445	Deceleration	9	8
2025-05-16	10.99	10.76	11.64	329195	Deceleration	25	17
2025-05-09	11.92	10.67	23.61	245594	Deceleration	39	23
2025-05-02	11.99	10.54	25.42	328637	Deceleration	33	15
2025-04-25	11.03	10.39	20.46	168327	Deceleration	6	18
2025-04-18	11.04	10.28	23.91	128162	Deceleration	5	21
2025-04-11	10.30	10.17	19.19	519829	Deceleration	-1	21
2025-04-04	10.20	10.10	18.61	192379	Deceleration	10	22
2025-03-28	11.04	10.03	24.33	244171	Upward Expansion	39	24
2025-03-21	11.50	9.93	31.57	233889	Upward Expansion	49	38
2025-03-14	11.72	9.81	37.85	320820	Upward Expansion	65	57
2025-03-07	12.93	9.70	50.83	294031	Upward Expansion	69	82
2025-02-28	12.85	9.54	47.97	336466	Upward Expansion	71	82
2025-02-21	13.43	9.39	54.37	544142	Upward Expansion	87	89
2025-02-14	12.81	9.21	45.11	837650	Upward Expansion	85	74
2025-02-07	11.59	9.06	33.86	443312	Upward Expansion	72	60
2025-01-31	11.88	8.93	38.59	341538	Upward Expansion	85	66
2025-01-24	10.95	8.77	31.35	166690	Upward Expansion	74	61
2025-01-17	10.61	8.68	30.26	117795	Upward Expansion	70	62
2025-01-10	10.23	8.59	27.21	217318	Upward Expansion	66	71
2025-01-03	10.70	8.52	35.22	225570	Upward Expansion	78	87
2024-12-27	10.71	8.41	36.86	108825	Upward Expansion	86	90
2024-12-20	10.05	8.32	33.28	261217	Upward Expansion	76	84
2024-12-13	10.05	8.22	31.17	247823	Upward Expansion	81	84
2024-12-06	9.65	8.12	25.59	192967	Upward Expansion	79	82
2024-11-29	9.34	8.02	22.58	235822	Upward Expansion	76	77
2024-11-22	9.19	7.93	22.44	169618	Upward Expansion	78	74
2024-11-15	9.16	7.85	24.81	86827	Upward Expansion	81	69
2024-11-08	8.34	7.78	14.64	56843	Balance	56	48
2024-11-01	8.29	7.73	17.46	190078	Balance	52	39
2024-10-25	8.20	7.68	15.98	69802	Balance	39	23
2024-10-18	8.31	7.63	17.51	125973	Balance	42	18
2024-10-11	8.00	7.58	15.16	183428	Balance	16	13
2024-10-04	7.73	7.53	13.18	65096	Balance	10	12
2024-09-27	7.69	7.48	12.67	128947	Balance	24	13
2024-09-20	7.77	7.44	14.79	171108	Upward Expansion	34	17
2024-09-13	7.99	7.37	20.61	77112	Upward Expansion	39	22
2024-09-06	8.19	7.29	26.14	55569	Upward Expansion	55	32
2024-08-30	8.04	7.20	23.80	90007	Upward Expansion	54	35
2024-08-23	7.95	7.11	24.60	79422	Upward Expansion	58	41
2024-08-16	8.33	7.03	32.54	60828	Upward Expansion	63	49
2024-08-09	8.30	6.93	36.69	222468	Upward Expansion	63	50
2024-08-02	8.30	6.83	35.30	183759	Upward Expansion	67	47
2024-07-26	8.08	6.72	33.39	165600	Upward Expansion	62	40
2024-07-19	8.15	6.61	34.99	134096	Upward Expansion	69	45
2024-07-12	7.62	6.51	27.66	289624	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-07-05	7.28	6.41	25.08	227361	Upward Expansion	62	50
2024-06-28	8.25	6.33	43.74	142461	Upward Expansion	78	78
2024-06-21	7.95	6.20	39.50	118359	Upward Expansion	74	82
2024-06-14	7.89	6.09	41.13	85227	Upward Expansion	75	79
2024-06-07	7.53	5.98	33.81	132131	Upward Expansion	67	73
2024-05-31	7.89	5.87	44.35	119741	Upward Expansion	82	65
2024-05-24	7.20	5.75	32.73	247097	Upward Expansion	67	45
2024-05-17	6.96	5.65	27.92	88952	Upward Expansion	53	38
2024-05-10	6.73	5.55	25.66	158350	Upward Expansion	46	37
2024-05-03	6.62	5.46	26.42	92063	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-04-26	6.69	5.38	29.62	270910	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-04-19	7.00	5.29	36.86	83768	Upward Expansion	71	63
2024-04-12	7.00	5.20	34.21	222369	Upward Expansion	76	68
2024-04-05	6.66	5.11	29.10	67486	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-03-29	6.68	5.04	28.45	178730	Upward Expansion	71	71
2024-03-22	6.98	4.96	37.38	226259	Upward Expansion	89	91
2024-03-15	6.40	4.88	28.75	146003	Upward Expansion	78	84
2024-03-08	6.25	4.82	23.80	246191	Upward Expansion	79	82
2024-03-01	6.56	4.77	32.49	198284	Upward Expansion	95	85
2024-02-23	5.66	4.71	16.73	160189	Upward Expansion	75	66
2024-02-16	5.68	4.68	17.36	171427	Upward Expansion	81	75
2024-02-09	5.41	4.64	12.63	300257	Upward Expansion	69	78
2024-02-02	5.41	4.62	12.27	199236	Upward Expansion	73	86
2024-01-26	5.43	4.60	15.33	66569	Upward Expansion	81	90
2024-01-19	5.42	4.57	17.69	113548	Upward Expansion	86	88
2024-01-12	5.14	4.54	11.08	158267	Upward Expansion	77	81
2024-01-05	5.09	4.52	10.41	144488	Rotation Up	77	76
2023-12-29	4.91	4.50	5.36	172925	Rotation Up	44	64
2023-12-22	4.97	4.49	7.97	431997	Rotation Up	43	62
2023-12-15	4.73	4.47	3.43	85944	Rotation Up	30	53
2023-12-08	4.79	4.47	8.42	77621	Rotation Up	37	41
2023-12-01	4.51	4.46	4.01	99847	Balance	17	27
2023-11-24	4.64	4.45	7.59	332202	Balance	-2	17
2023-11-17	4.58	4.44	6.32	281479	Downward Expansion	-14	15
2023-11-10	4.22	4.44	-1.18	112105	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2023-11-03	4.13	4.44	-3.42	148769	Downward Expansion	-59	43
2023-10-27	4.24	4.45	1.05	167431	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2023-10-20	4.03	4.45	-5.21	178948	Downward Expansion	-71	73

Price vs TrendBelow-2.5%

Trend directionFalling-13.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-45.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+3.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-27.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+19.5%

Price momentumNegative-13.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.86×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-2 / ±100

-44.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

14 /100

-61.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

KPG Directional State ↗ KPG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion32

Deceleration64

Rotation Down46

Downward Expansion29

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 37%Deceleration 6%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-09-04	2026-10-09	Developing	-16.6%
Balance	2026-08-21	2026-08-28	New	+5.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-07	2026-08-14	Extended	-51.6%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-10-31	Established	-9.7%
Deceleration	2025-04-04	2025-05-30	Developing	+4.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-15	2025-03-28	Established	+20.5%
Balance	2024-09-27	2024-11-08	Developing	+8.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-01-12	2024-09-20	Extended	+51.1%
Rotation Up	2023-12-08	2024-01-05	Developing	+6.3%
Balance	2023-11-24	2023-12-01	New	-2.8%
Downward Expansion	2023-10-20	2023-11-17	Developing	+13.9%
Rotation Down	2023-09-29	2023-10-13	New	-3.6%
Balance	2023-09-08	2023-09-22	New	-5.0%
Upward Expansion	2023-06-30	2023-09-01	Developing	-5.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing76

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution9

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 24/100
Current Relative Strength: -26.98
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -13.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.2%
Industrials regime cohort: 9th percentile11 in cohort

Test KPG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.76×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.86×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore KPG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 4.41falling

Slow Activity AUD 4.32rising

Trend Reference AUD 4.33-2.5% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 7.67-45.0% close margin

Structural low AUD 3.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +7.9%

Annualized volatility +39.7%

From structural high -60.2%

From structural low +20.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	+2.3%-14.2% to +6.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.8%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-0.2%-8.7% to +30.5%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-2.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+1.5%-19.4% to +57.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+2.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+46.6%-8.4% to +101.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+37.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

KPG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map