Weekly structural research ยท ASX ยท Industrials

MAD Stage Analysis

Mader Group Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 6.44Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: wide and contracting.
Direction -58โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 48/100directional strength
Maturity 79/100lifecycle context
Confidence 73/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Widecontracting separation
Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -5.4%AUD 6.81 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-096.447.45-15.962709157Downward Expansion-5848
2026-10-026.557.48-14.561745786Downward Expansion-6258
2026-09-256.217.53-19.181583389Downward Expansion-6682
2026-09-186.317.60-18.898559714Downward Expansion-6886
2026-09-116.067.68-22.513176147Downward Expansion-8191
2026-09-046.217.76-23.34154206Downward Expansion-8391
2026-08-286.157.81-25.21212782Downward Expansion-8985
2026-08-217.077.88-14.1771837Downward Expansion-6776
2026-08-146.927.93-16.7445040Downward Expansion-7780
2026-08-077.437.96-12.2684110Downward Expansion-6171
2026-07-316.907.96-16.06100583Downward Expansion-8177
2026-07-247.337.98-8.8556518Balance-6758
2026-07-177.467.99-7.4971866Balance-3526
2026-07-107.987.99-1.06101484Balance2315
2026-07-038.197.981.3977229Balance3116
2026-06-267.757.96-2.9266480Balance209
2026-06-198.157.981.59194106Upward Expansion5036
2026-06-128.237.973.3956158Upward Expansion5046
2026-06-058.517.989.68387690Balance5548
2026-05-298.377.987.2256167Balance4936
2026-05-228.327.998.05303004Balance1913
2026-05-158.308.048.71644331Balance-104
2026-05-087.708.040.03326561Balance-4418
2026-05-017.868.062.52536879Balance-2811
2026-04-247.818.091.47256047Balance-2914
2026-04-178.128.103.87678392Balance-2310
2026-04-107.858.100.60714776Balance-4225
2026-04-038.198.119.893142813Balance-3927
2026-03-277.668.124.04336727Balance-4834
2026-03-207.378.141.44851385Balance-4831
2026-03-137.408.17-0.071271522Balance-4518
2026-03-068.168.197.661329643Balance1220
2026-02-278.338.176.243778520Balance1321
2026-02-208.678.1312.41599448Balance2829
2026-02-138.518.0913.00329937Balance1219
2026-02-067.738.045.68469702Balance-613
2026-01-308.218.0010.64563432Balance512
2026-01-238.447.9614.40571144Rotation Down57
2026-01-167.777.895.381040787Rotation Down-3026
2026-01-097.477.833.78242226Rotation Down-3741
2026-01-027.527.784.63164328Rotation Down-2647
2025-12-267.657.736.35173042Deceleration-2338
2025-12-197.607.677.79593305Deceleration-628
2025-12-127.517.625.93757764Deceleration-924
2025-12-057.777.5710.73439417Deceleration113
2025-11-288.107.5316.18648520Deceleration2821
2025-11-217.947.4717.24576738Upward Expansion3320
2025-11-148.627.4124.87405339Upward Expansion5746
2025-11-078.397.3220.23541276Upward Expansion6050
2025-10-318.877.2426.00673588Upward Expansion6356
2025-10-249.637.1335.52820933Upward Expansion8867
2025-10-178.347.0118.80315656Upward Expansion6251
2025-10-108.426.9321.16390601Upward Expansion6653
2025-10-038.566.8323.62412606Upward Expansion7559
2025-09-268.236.7422.55554837Upward Expansion6558
2025-09-198.016.6720.51519443Upward Expansion6661
2025-09-128.356.5925.374321134Upward Expansion7169
2025-09-058.386.5226.761521695Upward Expansion7687
2025-08-298.396.4426.451300585Upward Expansion8492
2025-08-228.186.3724.39512968Upward Expansion8894
2025-08-157.866.2920.78479059Upward Expansion8693
2025-08-087.776.2421.28512759Upward Expansion8992
2025-08-017.116.1913.25520604Upward Expansion7183
2025-07-257.236.1515.27370585Upward Expansion8087
2025-07-187.066.1111.64393378Upward Expansion7781
2025-07-116.646.077.33298698Upward Expansion6168
2025-07-046.866.0510.62828598Balance7162
2025-06-276.566.037.01613013Balance5726
2025-06-205.856.00-4.62642032Balance-1413
2025-06-135.976.00-3.40574543Balance39
2025-06-065.956.02-3.59258394Balance-46
2025-05-306.076.04-0.86352421Balance1610
2025-05-235.956.04-2.20316226Balance1621
2025-05-166.136.030.64347181Balance2331
2025-05-096.386.025.73392121Balance4641
2025-05-026.435.986.15627356Balance3222
2025-04-256.165.944.90740879Balance116
2025-04-185.915.902.17389703Balance-44
2025-04-115.855.863.16790701Balance-157
2025-04-045.685.84-0.14448183Balance-2417
2025-03-286.125.823.41840328Rotation Down1917
2025-03-215.845.78-0.77673778Rotation Down-1328
2025-03-145.485.76-5.36816986Balance-2935
2025-03-075.675.79-4.32685005Balance09
2025-02-286.125.800.362039808Upward Expansion3817
2025-02-215.835.80-6.05520517Upward Expansion1811
2025-02-146.125.80-4.78349464Upward Expansion5026
2025-02-076.125.80-4.51185450Upward Expansion5031
2025-01-316.125.80-4.94553388Deceleration5031
2025-01-246.015.79-5.56751414Deceleration4726
2025-01-176.205.80-1.90491750Deceleration5328
2025-01-106.175.80-2.63649695Deceleration4422
2025-01-036.015.79-4.96186814Deceleration3618
2024-12-275.905.79-7.09370324Deceleration910
2024-12-205.975.80-4.13499909Deceleration1111
2024-12-136.095.83-5.32624304Rotation Up1310
2024-12-066.155.86-6.29502758Rotation Up2020
2024-11-295.875.89-11.13495194Rotation Up1836
2024-11-225.645.91-14.821003701Rotation Up1942
2024-11-156.665.941.481291286Rotation Up3956
2024-11-086.585.94-0.02908025Downward Expansion3738
2024-11-016.135.92-5.20565161Downward Expansion-519
2024-10-255.585.91-15.121277311Downward Expansion-3324
2024-10-185.665.94-15.03536153Downward Expansion-4226
2024-10-115.465.95-17.60326887Downward Expansion-6045
2024-10-045.125.97-22.49522091Downward Expansion-6558
2024-09-274.866.00-27.46650251Downward Expansion-7381
2024-09-204.896.06-27.49903742Downward Expansion-7384
2024-09-135.066.12-24.35747428Downward Expansion-7283
2024-09-065.176.16-22.62876113Downward Expansion-7479
2024-08-305.056.19-25.771365446Downward Expansion-8375
2024-08-235.186.23-23.962967072Downward Expansion-7846
2024-08-166.416.29-6.02785652Downward Expansion-2514
2024-08-095.916.30-11.39522444Downward Expansion-6239
2024-08-026.036.33-11.841370672Downward Expansion-5433
2024-07-266.026.34-11.91219674Downward Expansion-5637
2024-07-196.076.36-11.90600151Downward Expansion-5538
2024-07-126.036.38-12.39618812Downward Expansion-5846
2024-07-055.976.42-11.77270999Downward Expansion-6358
2024-06-286.166.44-8.37376291Downward Expansion-5449
2024-06-216.126.46-9.23917369Balance-4439
2024-06-146.056.47-9.15460867Balance-4734
2024-06-075.956.47-11.96859409Balance-2714
2024-05-316.276.49-5.14617372Rotation Up723
2024-05-246.856.503.49498118Rotation Up2550
2024-05-176.946.474.14259536Rotation Up2847
2024-05-106.886.434.72549862Balance3431
2024-05-036.716.414.21461401Balance814
2024-04-266.566.383.20317076Downward Expansion-2211
2024-04-196.466.372.281756444Downward Expansion-3317
2024-04-126.076.36-6.05350872Downward Expansion-2730
2024-04-055.976.40-6.91456056Balance-5644
2024-03-296.256.45-3.72545757Balance-5042
2024-03-225.996.49-5.671052831Balance-5838
2024-03-156.146.53-1.561038293Balance-4424
2024-03-086.066.55-4.37962239Balance-4930
2024-03-016.716.577.861155192Balance-2617
2024-02-236.496.556.44839807Balance-3626
2024-02-166.206.542.191154000Balance-5231
2024-02-096.096.531.131197492Deceleration-107
2024-02-026.526.527.981990424Deceleration2915
2024-01-266.726.4814.31287175Deceleration3617
2024-01-196.926.4420.72260127Deceleration4520
2024-01-126.616.3615.47366658Deceleration3415
2024-01-056.406.3013.00296092Deceleration4424
2023-12-296.666.2617.13403486Deceleration5244
2023-12-226.816.2022.32434610Deceleration5246
2023-12-156.966.1427.46517541Deceleration5741
2023-12-086.816.0630.48384973Deceleration4425
2023-12-016.715.9932.56507438Deceleration4021
2023-11-246.265.9225.83250682Deceleration2717
2023-11-176.195.8725.45557246Deceleration2413
2023-11-106.465.8133.74276351Deceleration2513
2023-11-036.645.7339.151256940Deceleration1913
2023-10-275.855.6426.821124636Deceleration317
2023-10-205.725.5924.13531589Deceleration1020
Price vs TrendBelow-13.5%
Trend directionFalling-6.4%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-5.4%
Fair Value directionMoving away-22.8%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-16.0%
Relative strength directionWeakening-14.9%
Price momentumNegative-18.0%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.33ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-58 / ยฑ100

+22.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

48 /100

-43.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance17
Rotation Up28
Upward Expansion13
Deceleration61
Rotation Down42
Downward Expansion73

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 34%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 22%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-07-312026-10-09Developing-6.7%
Balance2026-06-262026-07-24Developing-5.4%
Upward Expansion2026-06-122026-06-19New-1.0%
Balance2026-01-302026-06-05Established+3.7%
Rotation Down2026-01-022026-01-23New+12.2%
Deceleration2025-11-282025-12-26Developing-5.6%
Upward Expansion2025-07-112025-11-21Established+19.5%
Balance2025-04-042025-07-04Established+20.8%
Rotation Down2025-03-212025-03-28New+4.8%
Balance2025-03-072025-03-14New-3.3%
Upward Expansion2025-02-072025-02-28New+0.0%
Deceleration2024-12-202025-01-31Developing+2.5%
Rotation Up2024-11-152024-12-13Developing-8.6%
Downward Expansion2024-06-282024-11-08Established+6.9%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing39
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution34
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
78/100
Current Relative Strength
-15.96
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-18.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-15.2%
Industrials regime cohort
29th percentile38 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.78ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.33ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity AUD 6.38rising
Slow Activity AUD 7.12falling
Trend Reference AUD 7.45-13.5% close margin
Current Fair Value AUD 6.81-5.4% close margin
Structural low AUD 5.90shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.3%
Annualized volatility +34.5%
From structural high -33.1%
From structural low +9.2%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^AXJO Regime survived Read
Near term9+1.0%-14.0% to +17.8%+55.6%+44.4%+4.9%+66.7%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate4+6.2%-9.5% to +73.4%+50.0%+50.0%+4.6%+50.0%Too little matched history
Extended3+7.1%-10.1% to +169.0%+66.7%+33.3%+14.0%+33.3%Too little matched history
Full cycle2+89.6%-3.7% to +182.8%+50.0%+50.0%+94.4%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context