Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Financial Services

AFRM Stage Analysis

Affirm Holdings Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 80.70Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 42−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 18/100directional strength

Maturity 45/100lifecycle context

Confidence 88/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +47.4%USD 54.75 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	80.70	68.70	5.16	21020448	Deceleration	42	18
2026-10-02	70.77	67.57	-7.81	16543276	Deceleration	8	12
2026-09-25	71.52	66.94	-6.72	23937073	Deceleration	13	13
2026-09-18	71.21	66.12	-4.63	19183223	Deceleration	19	12
2026-09-11	71.44	65.45	-4.42	17094045	Deceleration	35	17
2026-09-04	72.35	64.73	-4.50	33548940	Deceleration	49	29
2026-08-28	77.76	64.22	2.05	45823303	Deceleration	54	34
2026-08-21	77.03	63.64	0.66	14753054	Deceleration	42	27
2026-08-14	78.35	63.45	-0.74	13684784	Deceleration	45	24
2026-08-07	75.25	63.33	-4.12	13693466	Deceleration	38	22
2026-07-31	71.51	63.55	-4.62	15728802	Upward Expansion	44	31
2026-07-24	70.23	63.63	-6.08	18965149	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-07-17	76.07	63.82	-0.18	19138258	Upward Expansion	64	75
2026-07-10	83.42	63.82	4.65	18863270	Upward Expansion	72	80
2026-07-03	84.58	63.28	7.99	15269046	Rotation Up	80	76
2026-06-26	79.49	62.73	2.25	24550538	Rotation Up	47	40
2026-06-19	73.92	62.45	-9.38	23343314	Rotation Up	43	36
2026-06-12	66.17	62.13	-16.98	18836824	Rotation Up	20	25
2026-06-05	63.61	62.27	-18.64	24318541	Rotation Up	22	29
2026-05-29	73.65	62.61	-10.38	22859222	Rotation Up	41	55
2026-05-22	65.22	62.55	-18.35	23212387	Rotation Up	25	46
2026-05-15	65.82	62.89	-16.69	28031566	Rotation Up	27	42
2026-05-08	64.01	62.96	-19.36	30421839	Rotation Up	23	38
2026-05-01	67.54	63.19	-10.31	22030204	Downward Expansion	4	27
2026-04-24	63.72	63.44	-14.18	24854130	Downward Expansion	-13	22
2026-04-17	64.50	63.85	-11.34	33447873	Downward Expansion	-26	23
2026-04-10	48.53	64.77	-29.12	21378292	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2026-04-03	46.31	65.92	-29.47	16638355	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2026-03-27	42.53	67.29	-32.71	22923358	Downward Expansion	-75	65
2026-03-20	43.81	68.82	-33.19	34136377	Downward Expansion	-77	76
2026-03-13	46.88	70.01	-30.26	26718457	Downward Expansion	-72	79
2026-03-06	51.70	71.07	-24.20	31302254	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2026-02-27	46.98	71.76	-32.20	37266730	Downward Expansion	-80	90
2026-02-20	51.09	72.41	-27.06	25287480	Downward Expansion	-77	86
2026-02-13	49.81	72.94	-28.64	49306250	Downward Expansion	-82	82
2026-02-06	57.03	73.58	-20.23	53905219	Balance	-73	65
2026-01-30	60.30	73.83	-18.00	29693739	Balance	-54	34
2026-01-23	71.43	74.13	-3.32	19163166	Balance	4	9
2026-01-16	74.76	74.02	1.57	36349240	Balance	21	24
2026-01-09	81.80	73.59	10.34	20874132	Balance	35	29
2026-01-02	74.03	72.84	2.41	10696602	Balance	4	10
2025-12-26	75.81	72.33	2.92	10985451	Balance	4	7
2025-12-19	76.22	71.54	4.71	38812493	Balance	-1	4
2025-12-12	67.25	70.64	-7.15	21964485	Deceleration	-20	30
2025-12-05	67.99	70.15	-8.27	25263593	Deceleration	-19	28
2025-11-28	70.95	69.43	-3.76	17244642	Deceleration	4	18
2025-11-21	64.38	68.81	-8.70	27110954	Deceleration	-7	15
2025-11-14	70.51	68.30	-3.45	31379023	Deceleration	6	8
2025-11-07	73.62	67.35	0.69	41729530	Deceleration	11	12
2025-10-31	71.88	66.25	-4.25	23006848	Deceleration	10	15
2025-10-24	75.39	65.04	2.79	25218318	Deceleration	23	21
2025-10-17	67.90	64.07	-4.79	25106414	Deceleration	17	22
2025-10-10	71.14	63.47	2.56	30033834	Upward Expansion	37	20
2025-10-03	74.83	62.77	5.86	40989260	Upward Expansion	45	32
2025-09-26	76.03	62.01	9.63	32910661	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-09-19	92.18	61.61	33.25	38767645	Upward Expansion	77	68
2025-09-12	83.08	60.82	23.94	36049996	Upward Expansion	66	70
2025-09-05	87.35	60.74	33.80	46445460	Upward Expansion	75	85
2025-08-29	88.46	60.34	38.38	88966186	Upward Expansion	83	85
2025-08-22	79.49	59.43	25.34	26805281	Upward Expansion	77	77
2025-08-15	78.72	58.63	24.55	23655835	Upward Expansion	80	70
2025-08-08	72.33	57.94	16.56	37324930	Upward Expansion	71	51
2025-08-01	66.41	57.38	12.40	20531419	Upward Expansion	59	45
2025-07-25	67.09	57.38	12.30	19953459	Rotation Up	62	64
2025-07-18	68.90	57.30	17.66	29747859	Rotation Up	43	65
2025-07-11	64.72	57.19	13.17	28625135	Rotation Up	29	62
2025-07-04	69.19	57.39	21.83	16766142	Rotation Up	40	67
2025-06-27	68.06	57.48	23.16	33423167	Rotation Up	39	57
2025-06-20	62.06	57.54	18.34	19356212	Balance	28	34
2025-06-13	59.11	57.69	13.90	35491980	Balance	1	15
2025-06-06	58.92	57.59	13.95	27720822	Balance	-9	14
2025-05-30	51.90	57.18	3.40	19476199	Balance	-31	17
2025-05-23	49.30	56.89	0.82	29436205	Balance	-32	20
2025-05-16	52.57	56.60	5.63	61694747	Downward Expansion	-34	21
2025-05-09	46.41	56.34	0.18	64658822	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-05-02	52.34	56.36	13.31	31771207	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2025-04-25	49.09	55.92	10.53	31538706	Rotation Down	-60	50
2025-04-18	42.10	55.66	1.40	20739002	Rotation Down	-37	60
2025-04-11	40.49	55.75	-4.30	62411193	Rotation Down	-42	65
2025-04-04	35.75	55.87	-8.89	50181401	Rotation Down	-53	68
2025-03-28	46.20	55.96	6.33	28611754	Balance	-33	40
2025-03-21	49.90	55.89	12.50	65018393	Balance	-26	34
2025-03-14	50.08	55.27	13.72	39716236	Balance	-7	18
2025-03-07	51.97	54.55	15.74	44661414	Upward Expansion	16	15
2025-02-28	64.15	53.67	38.75	29801476	Upward Expansion	57	57
2025-02-21	68.55	52.39	44.45	25649072	Upward Expansion	58	62
2025-02-14	80.69	51.01	67.84	43210814	Deceleration	79	59
2025-02-07	75.22	49.32	63.15	55668324	Deceleration	71	38
2025-01-31	61.07	47.79	33.87	24912732	Deceleration	29	24
2025-01-24	55.73	46.71	21.03	19418999	Deceleration	32	25
2025-01-17	57.99	45.86	28.04	30449878	Deceleration	39	25
2025-01-10	55.31	44.92	25.92	21495623	Upward Expansion	45	36
2025-01-03	66.50	44.11	48.28	17324580	Upward Expansion	62	56
2024-12-27	64.64	42.89	43.65	11508699	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-12-20	65.64	41.71	47.30	52249495	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-12-13	70.70	40.53	55.31	30326799	Upward Expansion	74	90
2024-12-06	71.88	39.30	59.97	42024268	Upward Expansion	85	94
2024-11-29	70.01	37.96	61.97	29000371	Upward Expansion	89	95
2024-11-22	66.55	36.79	56.59	59174043	Upward Expansion	90	85
2024-11-15	56.15	35.68	36.57	88848535	Upward Expansion	82	53
2024-11-08	46.48	34.84	10.43	72454960	Upward Expansion	64	41
2024-11-01	43.22	34.38	9.10	41387492	Upward Expansion	57	41
2024-10-25	40.70	34.03	1.75	28806878	Upward Expansion	57	40
2024-10-18	44.54	33.92	12.42	54458098	Upward Expansion	63	47
2024-10-11	47.08	33.64	20.21	58971193	Upward Expansion	75	55
2024-10-04	39.36	33.19	2.88	29041814	Upward Expansion	63	65
2024-09-27	41.16	33.17	8.54	37003449	Upward Expansion	66	78
2024-09-20	44.93	33.06	20.45	64090022	Rotation Up	78	85
2024-09-13	44.01	32.80	20.84	52702544	Rotation Up	53	70
2024-09-06	38.44	32.60	12.56	48583284	Rotation Up	29	37
2024-08-30	44.01	32.78	22.18	118533497	Rotation Up	38	32
2024-08-23	31.46	32.68	-12.58	37754684	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2024-08-16	28.45	33.01	-19.78	25485518	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2024-08-09	25.44	33.47	-23.97	27634703	Downward Expansion	-67	55
2024-08-02	25.77	34.02	-22.41	34383758	Downward Expansion	-66	43
2024-07-26	27.10	34.59	-20.65	23019136	Downward Expansion	-64	40
2024-07-19	29.96	35.33	-14.25	38856655	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2024-07-12	29.54	35.96	-18.43	31792942	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2024-07-05	28.55	36.44	-21.04	17233622	Downward Expansion	-62	40
2024-06-28	30.21	36.89	-13.02	45141758	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-06-21	29.87	37.14	-13.57	27756359	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2024-06-14	30.90	37.02	-9.89	62408267	Downward Expansion	-57	51
2024-06-07	30.05	36.82	-8.84	20549487	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2024-05-31	29.27	36.56	-8.40	15568115	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2024-05-24	30.03	36.34	-7.00	27756925	Downward Expansion	-64	41
2024-05-17	33.83	35.90	6.93	40265058	Deceleration	-25	21
2024-05-10	31.59	35.38	3.00	53944401	Deceleration	-34	31
2024-05-03	34.93	34.93	16.71	23630517	Rotation Down	-27	28
2024-04-26	33.33	34.36	14.01	28417557	Rotation Down	-30	41
2024-04-19	31.01	33.96	11.74	26769120	Deceleration	-30	38
2024-04-12	32.62	33.60	12.49	22436512	Deceleration	-6	25
2024-04-05	32.87	33.32	14.10	22968026	Deceleration	-6	19
2024-03-29	37.26	32.98	29.88	23358136	Deceleration	9	13
2024-03-22	36.04	32.46	26.79	31016325	Deceleration	8	14
2024-03-15	33.71	31.85	23.93	41150815	Deceleration	3	12
2024-03-08	38.76	31.21	42.87	37528700	Deceleration	20	17
2024-03-01	38.01	30.43	40.31	33435069	Deceleration	32	18
2024-02-23	36.98	29.72	41.03	31681615	Deceleration	36	21
2024-02-16	38.14	29.06	49.45	57989402	Deceleration	40	27
2024-02-09	43.86	28.36	71.83	105981662	Deceleration	46	36
2024-02-02	41.01	27.44	66.88	65385971	Deceleration	44	36
2024-01-26	41.34	26.53	72.36	65507299	Upward Expansion	48	42
2024-01-19	42.18	25.66	79.53	42200051	Upward Expansion	62	58
2024-01-12	41.79	24.75	86.09	63203285	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-01-05	43.01	23.92	101.66	59238780	Upward Expansion	68	82
2023-12-29	49.14	23.06	129.33	67729902	Upward Expansion	81	93
2023-12-22	49.06	21.95	136.98	180405410	Upward Expansion	90	96
2023-12-15	43.97	20.78	121.60	132999501	Upward Expansion	90	96
2023-12-08	42.07	19.77	125.46	132661411	Upward Expansion	95	97
2023-12-01	37.67	18.77	108.67	179284882	Upward Expansion	92	90
2023-11-24	26.23	17.87	48.31	35767065	Upward Expansion	72	71
2023-11-17	24.79	17.33	42.73	78637840	Deceleration	66	47
2023-11-10	22.43	16.87	32.68	118414379	Deceleration	57	30
2023-11-03	22.43	16.49	36.53	73633641	Deceleration	47	21
2023-10-27	16.93	16.09	9.72	73405817	Deceleration	17	20
2023-10-20	18.25	15.91	14.01	55662117	Deceleration	32	21

Price vs TrendAbove+17.5%

Trend directionRising+8.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+47.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-19.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+5.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.5%

Price momentumPositive+66.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.96×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

42 / ±100

+7.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

18 /100

+0.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AFRM Directional State ↗ AFRM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance53

Rotation Up34

Upward Expansion57

Deceleration85

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 28%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 19%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-10-09	Developing	+7.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-07-31	New	-14.3%
Rotation Up	2026-05-08	2026-07-03	Developing	+32.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-05-01	Developing	+35.6%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-02-06	Developing	-25.2%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-12-12	Developing	-1.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-10-10	Developing	+7.1%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-07-25	Developing	-1.4%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-20	Developing	+25.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-05-16	New	+0.4%
Rotation Down	2025-04-04	2025-04-25	New	+37.3%
Balance	2025-03-14	2025-03-28	New	-7.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-03-07	New	-24.2%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-02-14	Developing	+39.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing6

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution65

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 69/100
Current Relative Strength: 5.16
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +66.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +43.3%
Financial Services regime cohort: 62th percentile162 in cohort

Test AFRM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.96×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AFRM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 74.33rising

Slow Activity USD 73.05rising

Trend Reference USD 68.70+17.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 54.75+47.4% close margin

Structural low USD 47.97shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +10.2%

Annualized volatility +60.0%

From structural high -10.8%

From structural low +91.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	14	-3.0%-37.9% to +77.4%	+35.7%	+35.7%	-3.7%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-2.5%-27.4% to +131.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-2.8%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+6.9%-37.2% to +155.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+54.6%+28.9% to +80.2%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+29.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AFRM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map