Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

CVL Stage Analysis

Civmec Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 1.72Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -1−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 28/100lifecycle context

Confidence 69/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +42.8%AUD 1.20 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.72	1.71	7.58	880872	Deceleration	-1	20
2026-10-02	1.72	1.70	8.17	824004	Upward Expansion	-3	20
2026-09-25	1.72	1.70	9.17	900724	Upward Expansion	-1	15
2026-09-18	1.77	1.70	12.04	800851	Upward Expansion	34	18
2026-09-11	1.78	1.70	13.24	917037	Upward Expansion	52	36
2026-09-04	1.80	1.69	12.17	183763	Upward Expansion	58	57
2026-08-28	1.86	1.68	15.26	391459	Upward Expansion	60	63
2026-08-21	1.93	1.67	21.04	744567	Deceleration	76	59
2026-08-14	1.88	1.66	18.31	606650	Deceleration	57	30
2026-08-07	1.82	1.65	13.71	371583	Deceleration	38	30
2026-07-31	1.71	1.65	11.07	212645	Deceleration	30	30
2026-07-24	1.70	1.64	13.40	682631	Upward Expansion	38	26
2026-07-17	1.71	1.63	14.85	359430	Upward Expansion	48	39
2026-07-10	1.81	1.62	22.41	286005	Upward Expansion	65	73
2026-07-03	1.88	1.60	27.69	31599	Upward Expansion	67	85
2026-06-26	1.94	1.59	33.93	190719	Upward Expansion	77	90
2026-06-19	2.00	1.57	38.64	302619	Upward Expansion	91	91
2026-06-12	1.85	1.55	30.53	550807	Upward Expansion	82	82
2026-06-05	1.76	1.53	28.10	1525697	Upward Expansion	74	74
2026-05-29	1.73	1.51	25.70	607761	Upward Expansion	73	71
2026-05-22	1.68	1.50	23.93	1109503	Balance	65	46
2026-05-15	1.64	1.50	23.17	745676	Balance	50	33
2026-05-08	1.59	1.49	18.65	663843	Balance	38	19
2026-05-01	1.58	1.48	19.48	1113624	Rotation Down	20	13
2026-04-24	1.45	1.47	9.74	572433	Rotation Down	-19	36
2026-04-17	1.41	1.47	5.59	753032	Balance	-26	35
2026-04-10	1.48	1.46	11.05	934198	Balance	3	23
2026-04-03	1.42	1.46	12.86	569428	Balance	-1	17
2026-03-27	1.44	1.45	15.70	1221130	Upward Expansion	16	15
2026-03-20	1.48	1.44	21.44	812690	Upward Expansion	36	25
2026-03-13	1.61	1.43	30.12	1287575	Upward Expansion	59	48
2026-03-06	1.64	1.41	30.33	1888418	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-02-27	1.68	1.40	29.66	1657944	Upward Expansion	70	51
2026-02-20	1.71	1.38	34.60	2664711	Upward Expansion	79	53
2026-02-13	1.53	1.36	24.59	2493961	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-02-06	1.50	1.35	25.70	1668049	Upward Expansion	64	73
2026-01-30	1.61	1.33	32.89	1425603	Upward Expansion	67	85
2026-01-23	1.65	1.32	37.40	1870805	Upward Expansion	82	90
2026-01-16	1.60	1.30	32.98	1205853	Upward Expansion	80	83
2026-01-09	1.64	1.28	40.16	4355939	Upward Expansion	88	79
2026-01-02	1.44	1.26	23.52	619198	Upward Expansion	64	45
2025-12-26	1.42	1.24	21.21	1386030	Deceleration	60	36
2025-12-19	1.38	1.23	20.06	788818	Deceleration	51	31
2025-12-12	1.38	1.22	19.10	864648	Deceleration	41	26
2025-12-05	1.35	1.20	17.50	1038676	Deceleration	38	25
2025-11-28	1.37	1.19	19.64	1216387	Deceleration	41	26
2025-11-21	1.35	1.17	21.31	813425	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-11-14	1.35	1.16	18.16	562438	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-11-07	1.34	1.14	15.66	1096861	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-10-31	1.44	1.12	22.59	1891252	Upward Expansion	74	62
2025-10-24	1.41	1.10	18.75	2927166	Upward Expansion	74	64
2025-10-17	1.32	1.08	11.73	1288109	Upward Expansion	66	72
2025-10-10	1.39	1.07	18.26	904387	Upward Expansion	77	86
2025-10-03	1.41	1.05	19.73	1045247	Upward Expansion	89	93
2025-09-26	1.33	1.04	16.18	1059543	Upward Expansion	81	86
2025-09-19	1.28	1.02	11.71	2266274	Upward Expansion	74	69
2025-09-12	1.28	1.01	10.84	1429489	Upward Expansion	83	70
2025-09-05	1.22	0.9991	6.41	2129596	Upward Expansion	79	56
2025-08-29	1.15	0.9987	-0.95	1111497	Upward Expansion	65	48
2025-08-22	1.12	1.00	-3.37	567611	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-08-15	1.12	1.01	-2.98	305571	Upward Expansion	63	63
2025-08-08	1.15	1.01	0.61	1081238	Rotation Up	67	72
2025-08-01	1.15	1.01	2.73	500198	Rotation Up	44	64
2025-07-25	1.16	1.01	3.35	948191	Rotation Up	51	65
2025-07-18	1.09	1.02	-3.73	389932	Rotation Up	38	56
2025-07-11	1.12	1.02	0.33	1063329	Rotation Up	50	56
2025-07-04	1.11	1.03	-0.57	1025275	Rotation Up	44	55
2025-06-27	1.06	1.03	-4.11	532733	Rotation Up	34	54
2025-06-20	1.03	1.04	-5.99	306834	Rotation Up	10	38
2025-06-13	1.05	1.04	-4.97	332384	Rotation Up	17	37
2025-06-06	0.9978	1.05	-8.85	807344	Downward Expansion	-0	28
2025-05-30	1.02	1.06	-6.09	322054	Downward Expansion	6	28
2025-05-23	1.01	1.07	-5.57	767844	Downward Expansion	-20	27
2025-05-16	0.945	1.07	-11.54	604683	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2025-05-09	0.945	1.08	-10.31	1509757	Downward Expansion	-52	47
2025-05-02	0.8155	1.08	-22.57	1054919	Downward Expansion	-70	65
2025-04-25	0.8491	1.09	-16.76	330430	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2025-04-18	0.8203	1.10	-18.07	726038	Downward Expansion	-75	68
2025-04-11	0.8347	1.11	-14.79	938418	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2025-04-04	0.8635	1.12	-12.08	358785	Downward Expansion	-72	69
2025-03-28	0.8923	1.12	-12.68	332172	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2025-03-21	0.8873	1.13	-12.50	606969	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2025-03-14	0.864	1.13	-13.18	1164486	Rotation Down	-80	93
2025-03-07	0.906	1.13	-10.71	1506312	Rotation Down	-52	83
2025-02-28	0.892	1.14	-14.40	789325	Rotation Down	-64	87
2025-02-21	0.9107	1.15	-13.85	2417293	Rotation Down	-53	79
2025-02-14	0.9901	1.15	-9.12	2436293	Rotation Down	-42	44
2025-02-07	1.21	1.15	11.78	228565	Upward Expansion	41	28
2025-01-31	1.23	1.15	14.32	596798	Upward Expansion	53	37
2025-01-24	1.24	1.13	17.53	383238	Deceleration	55	36
2025-01-17	1.25	1.12	20.12	1139322	Deceleration	47	29
2025-01-10	1.23	1.11	19.77	489175	Upward Expansion	43	29
2025-01-03	1.23	1.10	20.73	104257	Upward Expansion	45	33
2024-12-27	1.20	1.08	18.13	227595	Upward Expansion	56	41
2024-12-20	1.25	1.07	26.82	677706	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-12-13	1.26	1.06	25.54	825168	Upward Expansion	67	50
2024-12-06	1.25	1.05	23.08	849903	Upward Expansion	65	48
2024-11-29	1.25	1.03	23.81	1293396	Upward Expansion	68	52
2024-11-22	1.18	1.02	17.98	504404	Upward Expansion	62	62
2024-11-15	1.20	1.01	22.35	1274564	Upward Expansion	65	78
2024-11-08	1.27	0.9925	29.36	747505	Upward Expansion	77	85
2024-11-01	1.27	0.9783	32.82	1550490	Upward Expansion	81	80
2024-10-25	1.21	0.9641	26.22	1406205	Upward Expansion	78	72
2024-10-18	1.11	0.9511	14.64	731537	Upward Expansion	60	52
2024-10-11	1.17	0.9416	22.77	832768	Upward Expansion	76	57
2024-10-04	1.09	0.9296	15.65	537790	Upward Expansion	63	40
2024-09-27	1.06	0.921	12.36	392779	Upward Expansion	58	40
2024-09-20	1.05	0.9125	11.71	455391	Upward Expansion	58	40
2024-09-13	1.05	0.9043	12.54	85389	Deceleration	56	36
2024-09-06	1.09	0.8963	18.59	28982	Deceleration	58	35
2024-08-30	1.04	0.8867	13.01	493253	Upward Expansion	50	30
2024-08-23	0.9632	0.8797	5.95	293577	Upward Expansion	58	44
2024-08-16	0.9814	0.8746	8.88	213729	Upward Expansion	64	65
2024-08-09	1.01	0.8687	14.96	756713	Upward Expansion	67	85
2024-08-02	1.14	0.8617	28.31	755101	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-07-26	1.12	0.8502	26.34	1090730	Upward Expansion	93	95
2024-07-19	1.04	0.8414	17.09	443675	Upward Expansion	90	84
2024-07-12	0.9178	0.835	4.27	83080	Upward Expansion	71	51
2024-07-05	0.8951	0.8323	3.67	409534	Upward Expansion	66	37
2024-06-28	0.8496	0.8319	-0.63	54086	Upward Expansion	38	22
2024-06-21	0.8496	0.8323	-0.79	78734	Upward Expansion	50	29
2024-06-14	0.8633	0.8315	1.91	88783	Upward Expansion	57	50
2024-06-07	0.8542	0.831	-0.64	66234	Rotation Up	54	57
2024-05-31	0.8542	0.8311	1.67	36507	Rotation Up	25	46
2024-05-24	0.8724	0.8312	3.73	111068	Balance	35	44
2024-05-17	0.8724	0.8288	2.84	350713	Balance	37	23
2024-05-10	0.8269	0.8266	-1.26	775545	Balance	-27	14
2024-05-03	0.8178	0.8259	-0.47	311979	Balance	-28	12
2024-04-26	0.8178	0.824	0.56	327927	Balance	5	12
2024-04-19	0.8178	0.8237	1.05	288434	Balance	17	23
2024-04-12	0.8451	0.823	1.89	105662	Balance	32	34
2024-04-05	0.8451	0.8214	2.51	280480	Balance	31	21
2024-03-29	0.8224	0.8195	-1.46	171108	Balance	6	8
2024-03-22	0.8224	0.8173	0.49	225191	Balance	2	5
2024-03-15	0.8135	0.8156	1.00	146782	Balance	-3	4
2024-03-08	0.8312	0.8145	1.18	131069	Deceleration	12	6
2024-03-01	0.8091	0.8125	0.12	81089	Deceleration	-9	12
2024-02-23	0.8091	0.8124	1.93	300434	Balance	-9	9
2024-02-16	0.8047	0.8114	1.70	391230	Balance	-12	11
2024-02-09	0.7959	0.8111	1.26	136473	Balance	-18	18
2024-02-02	0.8312	0.81	5.58	121132	Balance	12	14
2024-01-26	0.8091	0.8055	5.47	56547	Balance	7	17
2024-01-19	0.8047	0.802	7.59	69018	Balance	7	13
2024-01-12	0.8003	0.7987	6.69	207589	Upward Expansion	17	13
2024-01-05	0.8003	0.7954	7.56	226939	Upward Expansion	25	14
2023-12-29	0.8533	0.791	13.97	73699	Upward Expansion	52	32
2023-12-22	0.8445	0.7857	15.07	58918	Upward Expansion	53	35
2023-12-15	0.8356	0.781	15.77	149457	Upward Expansion	56	38
2023-12-08	0.8843	0.7743	27.92	35629	Upward Expansion	72	49
2023-12-01	0.8622	0.766	28.21	152046	Upward Expansion	65	49
2023-11-24	0.8234	0.7585	24.35	303450	Upward Expansion	59	55
2023-11-17	0.8492	0.7524	29.35	162637	Upward Expansion	66	65
2023-11-10	0.8578	0.7447	33.33	77086	Upward Expansion	71	55
2023-11-03	0.8578	0.7371	34.79	172482	Upward Expansion	75	49
2023-10-27	0.7977	0.7299	29.54	96949	Upward Expansion	53	33
2023-10-20	0.8063	0.7238	30.75	139566	Upward Expansion	63	42

Price vs TrendAbove+0.7%

Trend directionRising+3.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+42.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-18.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-14.8%

Price momentumPositive+16.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.56×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-1 / ±100

-53.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

20 /100

-15.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CVL Directional State ↗ CVL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance59

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion42

Deceleration78

Rotation Down45

Downward Expansion36

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 56%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 8%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-02	Developing	-7.8%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-21	New	+12.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-07-24	Developing	-2.0%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-05-22	New	+5.3%
Rotation Down	2026-04-24	2026-05-01	New	+9.3%
Balance	2026-04-03	2026-04-17	New	-1.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-03-27	Established	-0.0%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2025-12-26	Developing	+3.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-11-21	Established	+20.4%
Rotation Up	2025-06-13	2025-08-08	Developing	+9.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-06-06	Developing	+12.4%
Rotation Down	2025-02-14	2025-03-14	Developing	-12.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-31	2025-02-07	New	-1.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing20

Stage 2 · Advancing81

Stage 3 · Distribution81

Stage 4 · Declining19

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 28/100
Current Relative Strength: 7.58
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +16.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +19.3%
Industrials regime cohort: 25th percentile12 in cohort

Test CVL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.55×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.56×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CVL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 1.73falling

Slow Activity AUD 1.77rising

Trend Reference AUD 1.71+0.7% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 1.20+42.8% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.38shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.9%

Annualized volatility +27.0%

From structural high -15.7%

From structural low +32.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	10	+1.9%-20.6% to +16.7%	+70.0%	+70.0%	+0.8%	+30.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+8.8%-34.2% to +23.0%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+7.9%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+5.3%-16.6% to +30.6%	+60.0%	+60.0%	-1.5%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+12.7%-7.5% to +37.6%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+1.9%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CVL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map