Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Cyclical

LULU Stage Analysis

lululemon athletica inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 89.30Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -68−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 88/100directional strength

Maturity 66/100lifecycle context

Confidence 85/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -63.8%EUR 246.91 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	89.30	111.21	-45.40	0	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2026-09-18	87.40	113.48	-46.27	2	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2026-09-11	84.10	115.75	-49.68	30	Downward Expansion	-90	94
2026-09-04	85.80	117.85	-49.16	100	Downward Expansion	-90	69
2026-08-28	102.20	119.91	-39.69	0	Downward Expansion	-60	38
2026-08-21	103.60	121.38	-38.49	90	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2026-08-14	102.20	123.36	-41.16	0	Downward Expansion	-53	42
2026-08-07	110.00	125.82	-36.83	0	Downward Expansion	-47	42
2026-07-31	103.00	128.01	-39.84	0	Downward Expansion	-51	50
2026-07-24	101.20	130.56	-41.80	0	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2026-07-17	102.80	133.19	-41.08	0	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2026-07-10	105.80	135.74	-41.63	4	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2026-07-03	103.40	138.06	-44.75	0	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2026-06-26	101.40	140.04	-45.64	0	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2026-06-19	97.90	142.01	-49.48	0	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2026-06-12	104.00	143.56	-45.12	0	Downward Expansion	-69	66
2026-06-05	99.10	144.98	-47.29	13	Downward Expansion	-82	87
2026-05-29	112.60	146.36	-42.03	0	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2026-05-22	108.40	147.53	-44.15	0	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2026-05-15	103.60	149.05	-46.91	0	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2026-05-08	112.80	150.31	-43.98	0	Downward Expansion	-84	89
2026-05-01	119.40	151.50	-41.07	0	Downward Expansion	-82	72
2026-04-24	122.80	152.51	-40.21	0	Downward Expansion	-80	55
2026-04-17	141.80	153.41	-34.61	13	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2026-04-10	140.40	153.46	-34.77	20	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2026-04-03	135.78	153.35	-34.03	20	Rotation Down	-66	77
2026-03-27	127.10	153.61	-37.27	39	Rotation Down	-58	73
2026-03-20	143.42	155.11	-29.61	82	Rotation Down	-30	48
2026-03-13	138.44	156.15	-34.30	57	Deceleration	-41	43
2026-03-06	146.44	157.16	-33.60	106	Deceleration	-30	29
2026-02-27	157.58	157.63	-33.70	127	Deceleration	-19	30
2026-02-20	155.48	158.02	-37.41	71	Deceleration	-21	35
2026-02-13	146.98	159.02	-40.46	0	Deceleration	-29	38
2026-02-06	147.76	160.71	-42.13	149	Deceleration	-27	33
2026-01-30	146.18	162.53	-43.92	0	Rotation Up	-21	22
2026-01-23	163.18	164.63	-38.43	5	Rotation Up	19	24
2026-01-16	175.82	165.89	-34.82	61	Rotation Up	35	44
2026-01-09	175.74	166.62	-35.65	56	Rotation Up	38	63
2026-01-02	179.60	167.89	-35.37	0	Rotation Up	34	68
2025-12-26	180.02	169.64	-35.53	0	Rotation Up	38	66
2025-12-19	179.40	172.87	-37.13	15	Balance	23	40
2025-12-12	175.36	176.08	-38.43	127	Balance	17	29
2025-12-05	162.70	179.91	-43.93	134	Downward Expansion	-17	17
2025-11-28	160.42	182.79	-45.31	67	Downward Expansion	-44	35
2025-11-21	144.62	185.50	-49.33	68	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2025-11-14	146.54	188.53	-50.26	0	Downward Expansion	-59	54
2025-11-07	140.38	190.98	-52.20	0	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2025-10-31	147.80	193.73	-51.03	217	Downward Expansion	-50	54
2025-10-24	153.96	196.68	-48.27	89	Downward Expansion	-52	56
2025-10-17	141.52	200.57	-52.21	1	Downward Expansion	-74	67
2025-10-10	148.38	205.78	-51.44	67	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2025-10-03	149.82	210.37	-52.43	0	Downward Expansion	-66	75
2025-09-26	149.62	215.75	-51.96	7	Downward Expansion	-66	87
2025-09-19	143.28	222.39	-54.24	1	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2025-09-12	137.32	229.15	-56.74	111	Downward Expansion	-90	94
2025-09-05	143.46	236.37	-54.79	8	Downward Expansion	-90	91
2025-08-29	172.10	244.66	-46.44	50	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2025-08-22	174.74	252.41	-47.93	0	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2025-08-15	168.66	258.98	-50.75	85	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2025-08-08	160.60	265.50	-52.25	0	Downward Expansion	-84	76
2025-08-01	169.18	272.85	-47.12	0	Downward Expansion	-85	73
2025-07-25	185.58	279.43	-43.85	100	Downward Expansion	-80	77
2025-07-18	197.46	285.58	-39.41	0	Downward Expansion	-72	86
2025-07-11	202.40	291.17	-38.30	0	Downward Expansion	-70	88
2025-07-04	209.30	296.78	-35.23	0	Downward Expansion	-67	87
2025-06-27	200.85	302.62	-38.75	0	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2025-06-20	197.74	306.11	-39.04	5	Downward Expansion	-83	76
2025-06-13	214.00	309.85	-34.93	50	Downward Expansion	-78	53
2025-06-06	231.85	312.92	-31.54	0	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2025-05-30	277.15	314.85	-18.38	0	Downward Expansion	-34	32
2025-05-23	275.60	315.39	-18.35	0	Downward Expansion	-40	30
2025-05-16	290.20	315.66	-15.33	37	Downward Expansion	-48	43
2025-05-09	249.25	314.77	-25.45	0	Downward Expansion	-64	68
2025-05-02	241.65	314.90	-24.95	0	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2025-04-25	235.55	315.07	-26.38	0	Rotation Down	-68	88
2025-04-18	219.95	315.67	-29.36	37	Rotation Down	-56	84
2025-04-11	223.05	316.22	-25.18	127	Rotation Down	-61	84
2025-04-04	236.20	316.79	-22.31	37	Rotation Down	-53	79
2025-03-28	270.50	316.47	-20.40	0	Rotation Down	-46	73
2025-03-21	298.10	315.23	-14.74	0	Deceleration	-36	62
2025-03-14	285.80	313.27	-19.78	0	Deceleration	-27	43
2025-03-07	311.50	311.58	-13.60	0	Deceleration	-12	28
2025-02-28	348.75	308.54	-1.13	0	Deceleration	38	24
2025-02-21	346.15	304.16	-0.42	0	Upward Expansion	47	39
2025-02-14	353.85	300.33	0.03	0	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-02-07	391.95	297.20	15.72	0	Upward Expansion	69	63
2025-01-31	404.70	293.08	19.24	0	Upward Expansion	83	69
2025-01-24	371.85	288.79	9.65	0	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-01-17	364.25	285.76	8.52	54	Upward Expansion	65	63
2025-01-10	381.10	283.33	16.66	0	Upward Expansion	77	70
2025-01-03	366.70	280.10	11.66	0	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-12-27	370.05	277.97	12.55	0	Upward Expansion	74	90
2024-12-20	365.20	275.21	11.59	0	Upward Expansion	76	90
2024-12-13	370.65	272.35	10.67	0	Upward Expansion	89	95
2024-12-06	384.40	270.33	16.06	0	Rotation Up	98	97
2024-11-29	305.55	268.38	-7.02	0	Rotation Up	44	76
2024-11-22	310.10	269.12	-6.25	0	Rotation Up	54	81
2024-11-15	306.00	270.16	-8.72	5	Rotation Up	49	79
2024-11-08	289.75	270.92	-14.01	44	Rotation Up	39	72
2024-11-01	293.45	271.98	-13.04	0	Rotation Up	47	63
2024-10-25	283.70	273.22	-17.82	40	Downward Expansion	22	33
2024-10-18	263.35	275.69	-25.28	0	Downward Expansion	-3	17
2024-10-11	253.30	280.01	-28.57	0	Downward Expansion	-33	23
2024-10-04	246.55	285.80	-30.96	0	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2024-09-27	253.55	291.68	-30.32	57	Downward Expansion	-45	41
2024-09-20	236.50	297.48	-34.98	0	Downward Expansion	-50	54
2024-09-13	240.05	303.74	-34.41	0	Downward Expansion	-52	56
2024-09-06	226.75	309.64	-38.22	0	Downward Expansion	-72	66
2024-08-30	233.40	316.46	-39.56	36	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2024-08-23	239.20	322.85	-38.00	0	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2024-08-16	235.05	329.57	-38.52	0	Downward Expansion	-68	70
2024-08-09	220.45	336.39	-41.75	72	Downward Expansion	-83	87
2024-08-02	217.20	343.77	-42.56	0	Downward Expansion	-94	89
2024-07-26	231.25	351.61	-41.74	0	Downward Expansion	-93	88
2024-07-19	260.05	359.22	-34.98	0	Downward Expansion	-83	85
2024-07-12	268.30	365.88	-33.97	0	Downward Expansion	-80	87
2024-07-05	275.85	371.90	-32.56	0	Downward Expansion	-78	86
2024-06-28	281.20	377.05	-29.76	0	Downward Expansion	-75	69
2024-06-21	291.10	381.75	-27.32	0	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-06-14	284.30	385.20	-28.26	0	Downward Expansion	-75	70
2024-06-07	302.95	388.71	-26.53	0	Downward Expansion	-68	71
2024-05-31	287.20	391.34	-31.16	22	Downward Expansion	-80	82
2024-05-24	279.20	394.52	-34.48	0	Downward Expansion	-92	84
2024-05-17	310.20	397.49	-27.63	0	Downward Expansion	-83	72
2024-05-10	325.90	399.41	-22.97	0	Downward Expansion	-72	76
2024-05-03	327.70	400.50	-20.75	0	Downward Expansion	-72	89
2024-04-26	341.35	401.03	-16.70	0	Rotation Down	-68	88
2024-04-19	328.85	401.73	-19.60	0	Rotation Down	-49	82
2024-04-12	321.50	402.96	-21.95	0	Rotation Down	-63	87
2024-04-05	330.50	404.25	-20.19	0	Rotation Down	-56	81
2024-03-29	357.90	405.61	-12.98	0	Rotation Down	-50	65
2024-03-22	392.95	405.94	-3.49	0	Deceleration	-17	21
2024-03-15	427.10	404.03	7.95	0	Deceleration	18	13
2024-03-08	422.75	401.24	8.52	0	Deceleration	17	17
2024-03-01	427.55	398.74	10.55	0	Deceleration	20	19
2024-02-23	424.40	396.05	10.32	0	Deceleration	30	26
2024-02-16	416.95	393.29	8.43	18	Deceleration	35	27
2024-02-09	431.35	390.87	14.49	0	Deceleration	41	32
2024-02-02	425.20	387.71	11.02	0	Upward Expansion	45	41
2024-01-26	440.70	384.63	15.27	0	Upward Expansion	52	55
2024-01-19	439.75	381.44	19.77	22	Upward Expansion	64	64
2024-01-12	441.80	378.25	19.34	45	Upward Expansion	67	77
2024-01-05	452.45	375.23	22.01	0	Upward Expansion	68	88
2023-12-29	459.55	371.14	24.56	0	Upward Expansion	80	93
2023-12-22	459.85	367.32	26.54	0	Upward Expansion	89	96
2023-12-15	449.05	362.65	25.85	0	Upward Expansion	91	96
2023-12-08	430.25	359.01	23.14	0	Upward Expansion	90	95
2023-12-01	422.25	356.18	21.72	0	Upward Expansion	92	92
2023-11-24	394.60	353.77	16.26	0	Upward Expansion	76	80
2023-11-17	389.45	351.92	14.35	0	Upward Expansion	75	75
2023-11-10	381.85	350.38	14.88	0	Upward Expansion	69	69
2023-11-03	382.80	348.72	15.99	0	Upward Expansion	73	59
2023-10-27	368.20	347.02	18.03	0	Deceleration	59	31
2023-10-20	367.70	345.77	17.61	0	Deceleration	51	27
2023-10-13	358.80	343.13	10.91	27	Deceleration	42	25
2023-10-06	343.45	340.32	7.20	0	Upward Expansion	43	29

Price vs TrendBelow-19.7%

Trend directionFalling-16.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-63.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-45.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.2%

Price momentumNegative-29.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.74×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-68 / ±100

-7.7 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

88 /100

+49.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

LULU Directional State ↗ LULU Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance14

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down81

Downward Expansion98

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 53%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-04-10	2026-09-25	Established	-36.4%
Rotation Down	2026-03-20	2026-04-03	New	-5.3%
Deceleration	2026-02-06	2026-03-13	Developing	-6.3%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-01-30	Developing	-18.8%
Balance	2025-12-12	2025-12-19	New	+2.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-12-05	Extended	-32.7%
Rotation Down	2025-03-28	2025-04-25	Developing	-12.9%
Deceleration	2025-02-28	2025-03-21	New	-14.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-02-21	Developing	-6.6%
Rotation Up	2024-11-01	2024-12-06	Developing	+31.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-03	2024-10-25	Established	-13.4%
Rotation Down	2024-03-29	2024-04-26	Developing	-4.6%
Deceleration	2024-02-09	2024-03-22	Developing	-8.9%
Upward Expansion	2023-11-03	2024-02-02	Established	+11.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing63

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution7

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 91/100
Current Relative Strength: -45.40
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -29.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -61.5%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 80th percentile46 in cohort

Test LULU trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.74×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore LULU Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 88.15falling

Slow Activity EUR 102.44falling

Trend Reference EUR 111.21-19.7% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 246.91-63.8% close margin

Structural low EUR 83.30shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.9%

Annualized volatility +45.8%

From structural high -53.1%

From structural low +7.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	23	-1.2%-27.5% to +19.7%	+34.8%	+65.2%	-2.7%	+87.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-12.6%-33.7% to +35.1%	+28.6%	+71.4%	-20.5%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-14.8%-38.8% to +19.9%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-24.2%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-26.3%-50.6% to +48.7%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-41.0%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

LULU Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map