Weekly structural research · SHZ · Utilities

300614 Stage Analysis

Henan BCCY Environmental Energy Co., Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CNY 10.26Tenure NewBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -39−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 29/100directional strength

Maturity 25/100lifecycle context

Confidence 62/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -19.8%CNY 12.80 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	10.26	11.37	-9.44	6478096	Deceleration	-39	29
2026-10-02	10.39	11.53	-10.71	7074225	Deceleration	-41	34
2026-09-25	10.31	11.73	-14.97	10644624	Downward Expansion	-42	34
2026-09-18	9.94	11.94	-20.68	16722920	Downward Expansion	-53	33
2026-09-11	10.23	12.11	-18.14	12577404	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2026-09-04	10.76	12.28	-14.96	2226100	Downward Expansion	-32	29
2026-08-28	10.75	12.44	-18.29	1843500	Downward Expansion	-36	32
2026-08-21	10.75	12.58	-19.97	1890329	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2026-08-14	10.55	12.65	-23.71	2597500	Downward Expansion	-50	46
2026-08-07	10.46	12.72	-25.04	2507612	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2026-07-31	9.50	12.80	-29.13	2754800	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2026-07-24	8.82	12.89	-35.94	2809500	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2026-07-17	9.13	13.00	-34.34	3418900	Downward Expansion	-81	92
2026-07-10	9.76	13.13	-36.85	3463929	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2026-07-03	9.96	13.26	-38.53	4177600	Downward Expansion	-79	89
2026-06-26	9.77	13.37	-41.09	3982767	Downward Expansion	-87	89
2026-06-19	10.89	13.50	-36.06	19256731	Downward Expansion	-79	80
2026-06-12	11.93	13.63	-25.65	7502305	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2026-06-05	11.68	13.70	-29.37	3672378	Downward Expansion	-72	67
2026-05-29	11.82	13.79	-30.26	17791125	Balance	-71	47
2026-05-22	13.14	13.87	-23.11	15634197	Balance	-32	16
2026-05-15	13.26	13.91	-22.66	16225054	Balance	-13	9
2026-05-08	13.92	13.97	-19.21	10743900	Balance	-10	10
2026-05-01	13.84	14.03	-17.60	16470701	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2026-04-24	13.35	14.09	-19.91	20101582	Downward Expansion	-47	44
2026-04-17	13.08	14.17	-21.52	15538400	Balance	-48	46
2026-04-10	13.13	14.25	-18.37	13134793	Balance	-47	41
2026-04-03	12.42	14.31	-17.56	17968712	Balance	-30	33
2026-03-27	13.48	14.39	-13.39	26844765	Balance	-12	13
2026-03-20	13.78	14.46	-12.36	19808335	Rotation Up	5	16
2026-03-13	15.13	14.51	-6.66	37367675	Rotation Up	33	42
2026-03-06	16.38	14.50	1.88	40946738	Rotation Up	37	62
2026-02-27	16.44	14.46	0.26	28981892	Rotation Up	42	65
2026-02-13	15.09	14.41	-5.16	25096177	Rotation Up	23	38
2026-02-06	15.35	14.42	-2.02	40179539	Downward Expansion	30	37
2026-01-30	15.66	14.38	-1.80	44188508	Downward Expansion	5	21
2026-01-23	15.00	14.30	-7.13	51588822	Downward Expansion	-14	13
2026-01-16	12.74	14.24	-20.01	13211653	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2026-01-09	12.75	14.22	-19.04	15814705	Downward Expansion	-62	66
2026-01-02	12.68	14.20	-15.89	8190083	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2025-12-26	12.32	14.18	-18.68	14857621	Rotation Down	-74	77
2025-12-19	12.27	14.17	-16.23	33038876	Rotation Down	-51	66
2025-12-12	12.81	14.15	-13.51	17291080	Rotation Down	-49	62
2025-12-05	13.64	14.11	-7.38	17246902	Rotation Down	-25	38
2025-11-28	13.45	14.04	-7.57	11732805	Deceleration	-32	42
2025-11-21	13.60	13.97	-3.25	22757659	Deceleration	-11	19
2025-11-14	14.65	13.88	-1.26	13375008	Deceleration	5	14
2025-11-07	14.24	13.75	-5.24	10462680	Deceleration	3	18
2025-10-31	14.26	13.64	-4.85	11341384	Deceleration	6	17
2025-10-24	14.35	13.56	-3.49	9945601	Deceleration	28	19
2025-10-17	14.30	13.46	0.80	12467637	Upward Expansion	38	24
2025-10-10	14.87	13.39	-0.20	7148768	Upward Expansion	57	40
2025-10-03	15.71	13.28	4.32	6861560	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-09-26	15.86	13.12	8.10	24006769	Upward Expansion	67	50
2025-09-19	15.70	12.94	8.55	17815269	Upward Expansion	66	47
2025-09-12	15.44	12.78	8.34	22966731	Upward Expansion	64	48
2025-09-05	15.03	12.62	8.60	18455983	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-08-29	14.68	12.43	5.45	22648682	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-08-22	15.76	12.24	18.38	14169429	Upward Expansion	78	68
2025-08-15	15.15	12.02	19.58	20801247	Upward Expansion	70	67
2025-08-08	14.92	11.81	23.68	10317777	Upward Expansion	68	82
2025-08-01	14.97	11.60	26.28	19858485	Upward Expansion	73	90
2025-07-25	15.01	11.39	25.33	22453338	Upward Expansion	82	93
2025-07-18	15.40	11.23	32.38	33513069	Upward Expansion	95	97
2025-07-11	14.17	11.10	25.32	17714799	Upward Expansion	91	94
2025-07-04	13.20	11.03	19.49	17764019	Upward Expansion	77	76
2025-06-27	13.12	10.97	20.78	17830120	Upward Expansion	79	69
2025-06-20	12.29	10.91	17.88	21394646	Upward Expansion	66	58
2025-06-13	12.05	10.90	14.69	19108283	Upward Expansion	62	57
2025-06-06	12.10	10.87	14.81	8317504	Upward Expansion	66	62
2025-05-30	12.01	10.85	15.84	13354400	Upward Expansion	65	56
2025-05-23	11.63	10.79	11.23	16000500	Upward Expansion	57	44
2025-05-16	11.81	10.77	12.36	16758680	Deceleration	62	37
2025-05-09	11.42	10.72	9.18	11888107	Deceleration	42	20
2025-05-02	11.26	10.68	9.60	9203000	Deceleration	36	20
2025-04-25	11.11	10.66	7.98	10099116	Deceleration	38	20
2025-04-18	10.75	10.60	5.96	12303891	Upward Expansion	42	25
2025-04-11	10.87	10.51	6.60	21494668	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-04-04	11.84	10.42	9.72	14859684	Upward Expansion	69	73
2025-03-28	11.40	10.31	2.76	18557624	Upward Expansion	64	70
2025-03-21	12.03	10.22	7.03	18823484	Upward Expansion	78	74
2025-03-14	11.58	10.10	-0.20	15274317	Balance	62	57
2025-03-07	11.11	10.00	-3.66	12747900	Balance	45	38
2025-02-28	10.52	9.93	-7.29	16104200	Balance	12	22
2025-02-21	10.86	9.87	-8.22	21433166	Balance	24	20
2025-02-14	10.44	9.80	-10.48	19209580	Rotation Down	5	9
2025-02-07	9.49	9.74	-17.63	7677140	Rotation Down	-21	29
2025-01-31	9.06	9.72	-19.09	3325500	Rotation Down	-25	51
2025-01-24	8.93	9.71	-22.62	12472700	Rotation Down	-26	50
2025-01-17	9.09	9.72	-21.62	14739700	Rotation Down	-23	35
2025-01-10	8.50	9.72	-25.44	12591115	Upward Expansion	-32	35
2025-01-03	8.77	9.76	-25.36	13103800	Upward Expansion	5	12
2024-12-27	10.22	9.79	-20.63	19349629	Upward Expansion	38	24
2024-12-20	11.34	9.82	-13.23	36139015	Upward Expansion	56	37
2024-12-13	11.99	9.81	-10.35	25673298	Upward Expansion	67	48
2024-12-06	11.58	9.79	-15.36	26930532	Upward Expansion	61	47
2024-11-29	11.20	9.85	-18.18	39484565	Rotation Up	61	51
2024-11-22	12.16	9.84	-11.40	42926789	Rotation Up	50	48
2024-11-15	11.00	9.78	-23.41	21575094	Rotation Up	37	48
2024-11-08	11.39	9.75	-24.94	34620255	Rotation Up	47	58
2024-11-01	10.37	9.78	-28.50	17099815	Rotation Up	24	52
2024-10-25	11.03	9.87	-26.51	15139199	Rotation Up	37	55
2024-10-18	10.40	9.94	-30.04	15334981	Rotation Up	27	37
2024-10-11	10.00	10.04	-31.84	23178625	Rotation Up	-1	20
2024-10-04	10.79	10.15	-30.78	7331385	Rotation Up	9	13
2024-09-27	9.32	10.21	-34.85	11115059	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2024-09-20	8.10	10.32	-34.45	5615366	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2024-09-13	8.09	10.48	-34.76	7852038	Downward Expansion	-72	57
2024-09-06	8.58	10.57	-32.97	8106800	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2024-08-30	8.69	10.71	-34.79	8551574	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2024-08-23	8.29	10.96	-37.43	9009026	Downward Expansion	-70	53
2024-08-16	8.75	11.25	-36.16	21197063	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2024-08-09	8.88	11.57	-36.45	8839231	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2024-08-02	8.89	11.91	-38.43	7981149	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2024-07-26	8.66	12.24	-41.18	10204570	Downward Expansion	-68	58
2024-07-19	8.51	12.56	-45.26	9102287	Downward Expansion	-73	67
2024-07-12	9.00	12.95	-42.80	11291349	Downward Expansion	-67	57
2024-07-05	8.85	13.32	-43.62	11003638	Downward Expansion	-72	72
2024-06-28	9.09	13.75	-43.88	12528220	Downward Expansion	-73	77
2024-06-21	9.19	14.22	-45.33	9756951	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2024-06-14	9.55	14.67	-45.27	9035659	Downward Expansion	-76	68
2024-06-07	9.87	15.09	-44.36	16407603	Downward Expansion	-78	57
2024-05-31	10.90	15.57	-40.11	29757061	Downward Expansion	-67	45
2024-05-24	11.13	15.97	-39.88	19522898	Downward Expansion	-67	47
2024-05-17	11.44	16.30	-40.64	33527701	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2024-05-10	13.42	16.66	-31.21	39280810	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2024-05-03	10.80	16.93	-44.32	6286049	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2024-04-26	10.42	17.33	-46.22	12836416	Downward Expansion	-74	63
2024-04-19	10.05	17.78	-47.64	21196676	Downward Expansion	-80	62
2024-04-12	12.21	18.20	-36.64	11535926	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2024-04-05	13.28	18.53	-33.89	5712914	Downward Expansion	-48	46
2024-03-29	12.93	18.83	-35.12	10275944	Downward Expansion	-52	52
2024-03-22	13.38	19.18	-34.60	13840657	Downward Expansion	-61	57
2024-03-15	13.43	19.51	-35.22	12798946	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2024-03-08	12.49	19.91	-38.71	11157593	Downward Expansion	-67	77
2024-03-01	12.85	20.34	-38.00	15701699	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2024-02-23	12.89	20.74	-35.88	14916173	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2024-02-09	10.61	21.33	-46.21	20221022	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2024-02-02	12.80	21.90	-29.59	13997944	Downward Expansion	-95	96
2024-01-26	16.28	22.39	-18.13	10288880	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2024-01-19	16.85	22.70	-15.83	7424734	Downward Expansion	-82	80
2024-01-12	18.50	23.00	-10.13	9889414	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2024-01-05	19.01	23.34	-8.86	12935172	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2023-12-29	18.73	23.66	-14.21	8915081	Downward Expansion	-73	82
2023-12-22	18.24	23.94	-13.99	10473786	Downward Expansion	-81	80
2023-12-15	20.20	24.16	-6.71	6631687	Downward Expansion	-68	62
2023-12-08	20.30	24.31	-8.18	7216700	Downward Expansion	-68	48
2023-12-01	21.62	24.46	-4.01	11523842	Downward Expansion	-56	30
2023-11-24	23.08	24.62	1.20	12307541	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2023-11-17	22.77	24.76	-1.52	18346628	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2023-11-10	22.31	24.87	-3.90	25093581	Downward Expansion	-44	26
2023-11-03	24.21	24.96	5.50	19151298	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2023-10-27	22.97	25.01	1.19	12367933	Downward Expansion	-60	59
2023-10-20	20.91	25.09	-5.77	6739285	Downward Expansion	-73	62
2023-10-13	22.11	25.29	-5.17	9713857	Downward Expansion	-62	41
2023-09-29	21.71	25.43	-7.20	10482474	Downward Expansion	-69	45

Price vs TrendBelow-9.8%

Trend directionFalling-11.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-19.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+10.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-9.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+27.4%

Price momentumNegative-21.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.71×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-39 / ±100

-0.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

29 /100

+4.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

300614 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance46

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration64

Rotation Down40

Downward Expansion62

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 49%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	-1.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-09-25	Established	-11.7%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-05-29	New	-15.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-05-01	New	+3.7%
Balance	2026-03-27	2026-04-17	New	-3.0%
Rotation Up	2026-02-13	2026-03-20	Developing	-8.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-02-06	Developing	+21.1%
Rotation Down	2025-12-05	2025-12-26	New	-9.7%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-11-28	Developing	-6.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-10-17	Established	+23.0%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-16	New	+6.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-04-18	Developing	-10.6%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	+6.6%
Rotation Down	2025-01-17	2025-02-14	Developing	+14.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing68

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution4

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 86/100
Current Relative Strength: -9.44
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -21.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.2%
Utilities regime cohort: 83th percentile6 in cohort

Test 300614 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.97×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.71×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 300614 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 10.26falling

Slow Activity CNY 10.68falling

Trend Reference CNY 11.37-9.8% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 12.80-19.8% close margin

Structural low CNY 8.57shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +6.4%

Annualized volatility +34.7%

From structural high -40.8%

From structural low +19.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	-5.2%-9.8% to +4.7%	+33.3%	+33.3%	+0.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	2	+19.8%+4.5% to +35.1%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+9.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+12.8%-3.6% to +29.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-11.0%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+24.6%+24.6% to +24.6%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-27.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

300614 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map