Weekly structural research · SHZ · Industrials

002108 Stage Analysis

Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CNY 4.44Tenure EstablishedBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -40−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 30/100directional strength

Maturity 50/100lifecycle context

Confidence 46/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +13.5%CNY 3.91 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	4.44	4.69	3.94	51855561	Downward Expansion	-40	30
2026-10-02	4.26	4.71	-1.89	38142350	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2026-09-25	4.36	4.73	-2.64	53072515	Downward Expansion	-32	21
2026-09-18	4.38	4.76	-4.44	129458979	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2026-09-11	4.60	4.78	1.65	176997249	Downward Expansion	-35	22
2026-09-04	4.34	4.79	-4.33	22184693	Downward Expansion	-42	35
2026-08-28	4.46	4.80	-4.63	16027304	Downward Expansion	-43	38
2026-08-21	4.31	4.83	-8.77	19754000	Downward Expansion	-45	39
2026-08-14	4.35	4.86	-9.74	18960149	Downward Expansion	-48	43
2026-08-07	4.32	4.88	-10.19	15654291	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2026-07-31	4.34	4.90	-5.08	23233147	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2026-07-24	4.14	4.92	-10.84	18053500	Downward Expansion	-69	76
2026-07-17	4.34	4.95	-6.29	37296147	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2026-07-10	4.10	4.96	-19.50	26942833	Downward Expansion	-75	79
2026-07-03	4.23	4.98	-20.23	48467641	Rotation Down	-74	77
2026-06-26	4.21	5.00	-22.08	62856350	Rotation Down	-50	64
2026-06-19	4.58	5.01	-16.79	151146415	Upward Expansion	-28	34
2026-06-12	4.69	5.03	-8.94	43204629	Upward Expansion	-13	24
2026-06-05	4.70	5.04	-10.96	42630059	Upward Expansion	8	15
2026-05-29	4.93	5.04	-8.47	260186636	Upward Expansion	27	17
2026-05-22	5.24	5.02	-2.93	358222628	Upward Expansion	56	38
2026-05-15	5.62	4.98	4.14	832692359	Upward Expansion	61	68
2026-05-08	5.79	4.93	7.27	376981293	Upward Expansion	70	75
2026-05-01	5.56	4.87	6.36	484051396	Upward Expansion	63	66
2026-04-24	5.74	4.82	11.15	1389686067	Deceleration	70	61
2026-04-17	5.58	4.76	8.72	535360307	Deceleration	66	31
2026-04-10	4.84	4.72	-1.58	203965283	Deceleration	10	16
2026-04-03	4.63	4.69	0.95	369821278	Deceleration	4	12
2026-03-27	4.92	4.66	4.24	424205767	Deceleration	20	11
2026-03-20	4.57	4.63	-3.74	308855680	Deceleration	16	10
2026-03-13	5.08	4.61	4.02	316068652	Deceleration	53	32
2026-03-06	5.03	4.56	4.09	312354892	Deceleration	40	24
2026-02-27	5.15	4.51	4.44	209014403	Deceleration	49	26
2026-02-13	4.88	4.46	2.07	239789701	Upward Expansion	39	24
2026-02-06	4.90	4.43	4.11	243785316	Upward Expansion	52	33
2026-01-30	4.89	4.39	1.89	377225936	Upward Expansion	56	38
2026-01-23	5.24	4.35	7.53	361980781	Upward Expansion	64	46
2026-01-16	5.13	4.31	6.69	397583502	Upward Expansion	61	44
2026-01-09	5.12	4.25	7.87	385029520	Upward Expansion	63	41
2026-01-02	4.77	4.18	5.11	195777215	Upward Expansion	53	34
2025-12-26	5.08	4.14	11.40	417439033	Upward Expansion	65	41
2025-12-19	4.87	4.09	10.80	398662336	Upward Expansion	49	32
2025-12-12	4.63	4.05	4.56	361638585	Upward Expansion	54	34
2025-12-05	4.83	4.02	9.95	614613527	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-11-28	4.70	3.97	8.35	399246620	Upward Expansion	63	59
2025-11-21	4.64	3.93	10.76	996222674	Upward Expansion	65	74
2025-11-14	5.30	3.89	20.31	792506186	Upward Expansion	90	90
2025-11-07	4.93	3.82	10.86	805391226	Upward Expansion	87	80
2025-10-31	4.66	3.76	5.27	763829128	Upward Expansion	82	62
2025-10-24	4.16	3.72	-5.27	786956020	Upward Expansion	60	42
2025-10-17	4.26	3.70	1.55	334560630	Upward Expansion	72	51
2025-10-10	4.08	3.67	-7.50	102378876	Upward Expansion	63	44
2025-10-03	4.06	3.65	-9.22	176772717	Upward Expansion	61	55
2025-09-26	3.91	3.62	-10.64	304839985	Upward Expansion	60	62
2025-09-19	4.11	3.60	-5.30	664599182	Upward Expansion	64	55
2025-09-12	4.09	3.57	-4.94	526543794	Upward Expansion	66	60
2025-09-05	4.10	3.55	-2.42	554773979	Upward Expansion	70	59
2025-08-29	3.77	3.53	-11.21	268905788	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-08-22	3.91	3.51	-4.22	367627951	Upward Expansion	62	36
2025-08-15	3.89	3.49	-0.56	514805708	Upward Expansion	64	35
2025-08-08	3.59	3.47	-4.19	154892921	Upward Expansion	49	28
2025-08-01	3.67	3.46	-1.03	172704106	Upward Expansion	54	39
2025-07-25	3.78	3.45	0.22	300879873	Upward Expansion	57	55
2025-07-18	3.73	3.44	1.16	223903350	Upward Expansion	55	61
2025-07-11	3.73	3.44	3.30	318506570	Rotation Up	54	55
2025-07-04	3.67	3.44	3.53	851928277	Rotation Up	49	28
2025-06-27	4.10	3.45	17.15	659834681	Rotation Up	44	22
2025-06-20	3.23	3.45	-3.94	82336847	Balance	-39	27
2025-06-13	3.30	3.45	-3.05	122585960	Balance	-8	5
2025-06-06	3.43	3.46	0.07	138217428	Rotation Up	25	34
2025-05-30	3.59	3.46	6.19	77879336	Rotation Up	33	51
2025-05-23	3.59	3.46	5.20	101305697	Rotation Up	23	43
2025-05-16	3.65	3.45	6.37	105524363	Balance	29	36
2025-05-09	3.60	3.44	5.46	164709338	Balance	7	12
2025-05-02	3.36	3.43	0.56	41457115	Balance	-32	21
2025-04-25	3.41	3.43	1.68	135665238	Balance	-39	26
2025-04-18	3.37	3.43	1.79	130733282	Balance	-43	30
2025-04-11	3.10	3.41	-6.75	146765163	Balance	-66	32
2025-04-04	3.40	3.40	-3.55	72417326	Balance	2	11
2025-03-28	3.42	3.39	-5.19	143723174	Balance	-1	8
2025-03-21	3.48	3.37	-4.53	166659932	Balance	3	6
2025-03-14	3.38	3.35	-10.09	103309949	Deceleration	-24	20
2025-03-07	3.29	3.34	-11.61	126533660	Deceleration	-20	21
2025-02-28	3.33	3.33	-8.87	113746386	Deceleration	-14	14
2025-02-21	3.27	3.32	-13.80	109563766	Deceleration	-2	10
2025-02-14	3.37	3.31	-9.62	93808605	Deceleration	6	12
2025-02-07	3.40	3.30	-7.70	54480523	Deceleration	4	14
2025-01-31	3.32	3.28	-6.40	14980276	Deceleration	1	20
2025-01-24	3.31	3.27	-8.28	65492362	Deceleration	-0	21
2025-01-17	3.36	3.26	-6.16	73208592	Deceleration	16	24
2025-01-10	3.24	3.25	-6.52	86249613	Deceleration	12	20
2025-01-03	3.33	3.25	-5.40	80250923	Upward Expansion	34	21
2024-12-27	3.59	3.24	-5.61	96506598	Upward Expansion	58	45
2024-12-20	3.66	3.23	-4.21	121959727	Upward Expansion	61	60
2024-12-13	3.81	3.23	-1.01	184407872	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-12-06	3.94	3.22	1.34	573394967	Upward Expansion	79	69
2024-11-29	3.86	3.20	0.85	174676144	Upward Expansion	83	67
2024-11-22	3.44	3.19	-8.74	114323427	Rotation Up	60	47
2024-11-15	3.43	3.19	-11.93	124387819	Rotation Up	36	48
2024-11-08	3.60	3.19	-11.45	151233825	Rotation Up	55	63
2024-11-01	3.40	3.18	-11.19	122277843	Rotation Up	40	53
2024-10-25	3.41	3.19	-12.68	120266125	Rotation Up	34	60
2024-10-18	3.30	3.19	-13.64	120356514	Rotation Up	23	38
2024-10-11	3.27	3.20	-12.21	177544880	Rotation Up	20	34
2024-10-04	3.50	3.20	-10.42	61983443	Rotation Up	22	30
2024-09-27	3.20	3.20	-9.65	98867780	Downward Expansion	-21	18
2024-09-20	2.91	3.20	-3.52	29194399	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2024-09-13	2.86	3.22	-4.17	40300023	Downward Expansion	-71	55
2024-09-06	2.94	3.24	-3.44	50074220	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2024-08-30	2.98	3.24	-4.86	41915039	Downward Expansion	-54	42
2024-08-23	2.91	3.26	-5.32	34681659	Downward Expansion	-67	48
2024-08-16	3.00	3.28	-4.60	34678308	Downward Expansion	-48	41
2024-08-09	3.01	3.31	-4.95	42971913	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-08-02	3.01	3.33	-6.88	49371417	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2024-07-26	2.98	3.36	-8.44	89060541	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2024-07-19	2.92	3.40	-13.51	39835177	Downward Expansion	-76	89
2024-07-12	2.97	3.42	-11.91	52444278	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2024-07-05	2.98	3.45	-10.25	41034982	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2024-06-28	2.98	3.48	-11.98	53664819	Downward Expansion	-85	93
2024-06-21	3.03	3.51	-12.87	42294180	Downward Expansion	-85	87
2024-06-14	3.16	3.54	-11.10	28498285	Downward Expansion	-75	74
2024-06-07	3.17	3.57	-11.03	71466894	Balance	-74	60
2024-05-31	3.41	3.59	-5.75	40638539	Balance	-41	21
2024-05-24	3.42	3.61	-6.13	62867571	Balance	-28	14
2024-05-17	3.53	3.62	-5.93	50732495	Balance	-18	11
2024-05-10	3.51	3.64	-6.65	61654516	Balance	-24	15
2024-05-03	3.53	3.65	-4.73	30868673	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2024-04-26	3.43	3.66	-5.97	54181770	Downward Expansion	-45	22
2024-04-19	3.37	3.68	-5.82	77543018	Downward Expansion	-41	20
2024-04-12	3.48	3.70	-1.96	71287083	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2024-04-05	3.58	3.72	-2.50	55524012	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2024-03-29	3.44	3.73	-4.60	68866290	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2024-03-22	3.45	3.75	-5.99	118910018	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2024-03-15	3.47	3.78	-5.99	80836236	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2024-03-08	3.33	3.81	-7.52	65179916	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2024-03-01	3.42	3.84	-5.87	89308354	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2024-02-23	3.41	3.87	-2.38	75626560	Downward Expansion	-64	74
2024-02-09	3.38	3.90	-0.46	93326788	Downward Expansion	-65	78
2024-02-02	3.07	3.93	-1.07	62875817	Downward Expansion	-93	90
2024-01-26	3.50	3.97	3.90	65984228	Downward Expansion	-77	74
2024-01-19	3.57	4.00	5.73	68757272	Downward Expansion	-75	46
2024-01-12	3.80	4.02	10.24	82168781	Downward Expansion	-51	23
2024-01-05	3.77	4.04	8.17	85738326	Downward Expansion	-58	32
2023-12-29	3.89	4.05	6.75	304386777	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2023-12-22	4.02	4.06	14.08	127959853	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2023-12-15	3.69	4.07	3.02	39211881	Downward Expansion	-79	80
2023-12-08	3.74	4.08	2.35	52046615	Downward Expansion	-76	65
2023-12-01	3.86	4.09	3.65	42300934	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2023-11-24	3.89	4.10	3.11	45643191	Downward Expansion	-47	30
2023-11-17	3.95	4.10	3.33	53806473	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2023-11-10	3.93	4.10	2.55	56883270	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2023-11-03	3.93	4.10	3.82	47491142	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2023-10-27	3.95	4.11	5.38	86167436	Downward Expansion	-61	45
2023-10-20	3.82	4.12	3.96	71793635	Downward Expansion	-76	60
2023-10-13	3.93	4.13	1.48	53607235	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2023-09-29	3.93	4.14	0.94	32105255	Downward Expansion	-68	70

Price vs TrendBelow-5.2%

Trend directionFalling-4.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+13.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+3.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+23.4%

Price momentumNegative-8.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.09×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-40 / ±100

-5.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

30 /100

+8.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

002108 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance38

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration63

Rotation Down42

Downward Expansion65

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 29%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 39%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-10-09	Established	+8.3%
Rotation Down	2026-06-26	2026-07-03	New	+0.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-06-19	Developing	-17.6%
Deceleration	2026-02-27	2026-04-24	Developing	+11.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2026-02-13	Extended	+30.8%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-07-11	New	-9.0%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-06-20	New	-2.1%
Rotation Up	2025-05-23	2025-06-06	New	-4.5%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-05-16	Developing	+4.7%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-03-14	Developing	+4.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-01-03	Developing	-13.9%
Rotation Up	2024-10-04	2024-11-22	Developing	-1.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-14	2024-09-27	Established	+1.2%
Balance	2024-05-10	2024-06-07	Developing	-9.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing55

Stage 2 · Advancing23

Stage 3 · Distribution29

Stage 4 · Declining77

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 32/100
Current Relative Strength: 3.94
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -8.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +3.4%
Industrials regime cohort: 10th percentile428 in cohort

Test 002108 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.83×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.09×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 002108 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 4.38falling

Slow Activity CNY 4.51falling

Trend Reference CNY 4.69-5.2% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 3.91+13.5% close margin

Structural low CNY 4.02shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.3%

Annualized volatility +35.1%

From structural high -30.3%

From structural low +15.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	27	+0.3%-18.3% to +20.2%	+51.9%	+48.1%	-0.5%	+85.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-3.7%-27.1% to +27.4%	+45.5%	+54.5%	+0.1%	+72.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-7.2%-17.8% to +20.6%	+20.0%	+80.0%	-1.1%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-23.1%-28.7% to -1.2%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-17.0%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

002108 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map