Weekly structural research · MEX · Industrials

RYAAYN Stage Analysis

Ryanair Holdings plc

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 906.25Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -83−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 94/100directional strength

Maturity 26/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -34.8%MXN 1,390.37 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	906.25	1,040.66	-15.67	0	Downward Expansion	-83	94
2026-09-18	906.25	1,048.29	-13.82	1950	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-09-11	928.34	1,055.91	-12.99	0	Downward Expansion	-89	94
2026-09-04	928.34	1,064.75	-14.71	450	Downward Expansion	-94	93
2026-08-28	1,010.89	1,074.40	-8.56	0	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2026-08-21	1,010.89	1,081.30	-9.40	0	Downward Expansion	-65	82
2026-08-14	1,010.89	1,088.19	-8.01	0	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2026-08-07	1,010.89	1,094.39	-11.97	0	Downward Expansion	-74	62
2026-07-31	1,003.41	1,100.56	-13.13	0	Rotation Down	-66	43
2026-07-24	1,003.34	1,106.99	-12.94	4830	Rotation Down	-36	33
2026-07-17	1,110.15	1,113.42	-4.58	2045	Rotation Up	7	47
2026-07-10	1,132.01	1,116.28	-2.77	0	Rotation Up	30	53
2026-07-03	1,116.55	1,118.42	-5.11	0	Rotation Up	-8	25
2026-06-26	1,125.00	1,121.08	-4.85	0	Rotation Up	-36	56
2026-06-19	1,002.82	1,123.45	-16.00	0	Downward Expansion	-94	98
2026-06-12	1,002.82	1,128.17	-16.72	0	Downward Expansion	-94	98
2026-06-05	1,002.82	1,132.89	-14.83	1385	Downward Expansion	-94	97
2026-05-29	1,052.28	1,137.62	-13.89	97	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2026-05-22	1,065.33	1,140.69	-12.55	0	Downward Expansion	-65	88
2026-05-15	1,065.33	1,141.83	-12.11	0	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2026-05-08	1,065.33	1,142.97	-14.50	0	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2026-05-01	1,065.33	1,144.11	-12.08	0	Downward Expansion	-69	87
2026-04-24	1,065.33	1,143.69	-13.90	0	Downward Expansion	-72	90
2026-04-17	1,065.33	1,143.27	-14.72	0	Rotation Down	-76	91
2026-04-10	1,065.33	1,147.34	-15.12	0	Rotation Down	-60	84
2026-04-03	1,065.33	1,151.41	-14.82	2365	Rotation Down	-69	89
2026-03-27	1,080.13	1,155.49	-9.82	1170	Rotation Down	-70	90
2026-03-20	1,083.00	1,159.07	-6.05	181	Rotation Down	-62	87
2026-03-13	1,135.05	1,162.55	-3.90	0	Rotation Down	-41	75
2026-03-06	1,135.05	1,164.30	-6.33	0	Rotation Down	-54	64
2026-02-27	1,135.05	1,166.02	-11.89	0	Rotation Down	-51	62
2026-02-20	1,135.05	1,166.92	-12.12	950	Rotation Down	8	21
2026-02-13	1,193.49	1,167.83	-7.78	1426	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-02-06	1,217.80	1,163.93	-5.06	0	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-01-30	1,217.80	1,159.22	-0.66	0	Upward Expansion	92	97
2026-01-23	1,217.80	1,155.01	-1.47	4070	Upward Expansion	91	77
2026-01-16	1,196.63	1,150.79	-1.63	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2026-01-09	1,196.18	1,147.28	-0.07	0	Upward Expansion	66	88
2026-01-02	1,196.18	1,143.78	2.93	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2025-12-26	1,196.18	1,134.67	0.55	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2025-12-19	1,196.18	1,125.55	3.10	0	Upward Expansion	73	89
2025-12-12	1,196.18	1,116.44	1.91	0	Upward Expansion	80	90
2025-12-05	1,196.18	1,107.32	4.13	0	Rotation Up	88	89
2025-11-28	1,196.18	1,098.21	3.88	745	Rotation Up	81	76
2025-11-21	1,144.49	1,089.10	2.11	0	Rotation Up	51	50
2025-11-14	1,144.49	1,081.67	1.32	0	Deceleration	54	48
2025-11-07	1,144.49	1,073.71	-0.41	0	Deceleration	48	40
2025-10-31	1,144.49	1,063.33	0.64	960	Deceleration	24	21
2025-10-24	1,099.58	1,052.95	-0.68	0	Deceleration	-8	47
2025-10-17	1,099.58	1,046.17	-1.57	0	Deceleration	-5	43
2025-10-10	1,099.58	1,040.75	0.45	8	Rotation Down	4	40
2025-10-03	1,052.60	1,035.42	-5.92	0	Rotation Down	-2	41
2025-09-26	1,052.60	1,033.58	-6.41	1040	Rotation Down	20	36
2025-09-19	1,187.55	1,029.72	7.50	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2025-09-12	1,187.55	1,021.04	6.72	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2025-09-05	1,187.55	1,012.36	6.37	0	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-08-29	1,187.55	1,004.88	6.74	0	Upward Expansion	72	70
2025-08-22	1,187.55	995.18	3.36	0	Upward Expansion	74	86
2025-08-15	1,187.55	985.49	2.62	400	Upward Expansion	83	74
2025-08-08	1,186.55	975.79	0.81	205	Upward Expansion	93	91
2025-08-01	1,162.15	966.11	-1.39	0	Upward Expansion	93	78
2025-07-25	1,162.15	958.33	-4.22	5772	Upward Expansion	97	99
2025-07-18	1,076.61	950.55	-11.50	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2025-07-11	1,076.61	945.62	-13.82	920	Upward Expansion	67	89
2025-07-04	1,091.29	940.43	-16.40	0	Upward Expansion	81	93
2025-06-27	1,091.29	934.74	-17.33	0	Upward Expansion	92	97
2025-06-20	1,091.29	930.21	-17.39	0	Upward Expansion	96	98
2025-06-13	1,091.29	925.67	-20.66	3064	Upward Expansion	95	92
2025-06-06	922.76	921.14	-34.94	0	Balance	14	18
2025-05-30	922.76	920.15	-36.08	0	Rotation Up	5	17
2025-05-23	922.76	919.17	-37.94	0	Rotation Up	5	21
2025-05-16	922.76	918.18	-38.68	0	Balance	3	23
2025-05-09	922.76	917.14	-38.23	0	Balance	-16	23
2025-05-02	922.76	916.10	-38.47	5564	Rotation Down	-41	24
2025-04-25	921.68	915.06	-40.54	4095	Rotation Down	-52	64
2025-04-18	905.65	914.06	-38.51	3565	Rotation Down	-36	64
2025-04-11	833.03	913.59	-42.73	0	Downward Expansion	-60	81
2025-04-04	833.03	960.13	-43.62	410	Downward Expansion	-85	61
2025-03-28	896.26	1,009.18	-42.26	22	Balance	-55	31
2025-03-21	937.15	1,056.13	-40.02	222	Balance	-11	12
2025-03-14	939.61	1,101.71	-40.58	97	Rotation Up	-16	19
2025-03-07	997.37	1,147.22	-38.32	690	Rotation Up	3	27
2025-02-28	936.70	1,190.79	-42.39	1573	Downward Expansion	-42	51
2025-02-21	927.23	1,236.38	-45.31	0	Downward Expansion	-56	63
2025-02-14	927.23	1,282.28	-46.46	63	Downward Expansion	-58	65
2025-02-07	963.09	1,328.18	-43.89	2407	Downward Expansion	-58	65
2025-01-31	896.63	1,372.89	-46.77	0	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2025-01-24	896.63	1,419.81	-47.56	0	Downward Expansion	-80	73
2025-01-17	896.63	1,466.73	-46.74	0	Downward Expansion	-89	76
2025-01-10	896.16	1,513.66	-47.00	3148	Downward Expansion	-94	98
2025-01-03	928.75	1,560.59	-44.98	0	Downward Expansion	-65	88
2024-12-27	928.75	1,606.44	-45.72	0	Downward Expansion	-65	88
2024-12-20	928.75	1,652.30	-46.38	30	Downward Expansion	-56	84
2024-12-13	920.76	1,698.15	-49.27	0	Downward Expansion	-55	61
2024-12-06	920.76	1,744.27	-49.35	102	Deceleration	-54	60
2024-11-29	955.27	1,790.38	-46.25	0	Deceleration	-52	62
2024-11-22	955.27	1,835.35	-47.28	0	Downward Expansion	-53	63
2024-11-15	955.27	1,880.32	-47.72	92	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2024-11-08	893.15	1,925.28	-52.77	0	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2024-11-01	893.15	1,972.02	-52.06	0	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2024-10-25	893.15	2,021.59	-53.53	199	Downward Expansion	-67	89
2024-10-18	891.60	2,071.15	-55.13	0	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2024-10-11	891.60	2,120.77	-55.03	0	Rotation Down	-86	95
2024-10-04	891.60	2,170.40	-55.63	0	Rotation Down	-96	79
2024-09-27	891.60	2,220.02	-56.07	0	Downward Expansion	-96	79
2024-09-20	891.60	2,269.64	-55.87	0	Downward Expansion	-95	78
2024-09-13	2,229.00	2,319.26	10.03	116	Downward Expansion	-93	77
2024-09-06	2,304.69	2,324.30	16.60	0	Downward Expansion	-44	60
2024-08-30	2,304.69	2,321.60	13.48	0	Downward Expansion	-44	80
2024-08-23	2,304.69	2,318.89	13.10	0	Downward Expansion	-44	80
2024-08-16	2,304.69	2,316.19	12.68	0	Deceleration	-53	84
2024-08-09	2,304.69	2,309.73	15.70	0	Deceleration	-2	66
2024-08-02	2,304.29	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-07-26	2,304.29	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-07-19	2,304.29	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-07-12	2,304.29	2,247.52	15.30	0	Deceleration	20	72
2024-07-05	2,304.29	2,228.95	21.95	0	Deceleration	24	43
2024-06-28	2,304.29	2,210.37	22.74	0	Deceleration	28	50
2024-06-21	2,304.29	2,191.80	22.95	0	Deceleration	35	53
2024-06-14	2,304.29	2,173.23	25.31	0	Upward Expansion	46	59
2024-06-07	2,304.29	2,154.65	24.64	0	Upward Expansion	42	78
2024-05-31	2,304.29	2,136.08	20.71	0	Upward Expansion	43	79
2024-05-24	2,304.29	2,117.50	21.08	0	Upward Expansion	43	79
2024-05-17	2,304.29	2,098.93	17.40	0	Upward Expansion	43	79
2024-05-10	2,304.29	2,080.35	17.93	0	Upward Expansion	47	49
2024-05-03	2,304.29	2,061.78	19.97	0	Upward Expansion	46	66
2024-04-26	2,304.29	2,035.68	19.38	0	Upward Expansion	51	80
2024-04-19	2,304.29	2,009.57	24.47	5161	Upward Expansion	52	68
2024-04-12	2,295.10	1,983.47	23.38	1784	Upward Expansion	54	82
2024-04-05	2,380.22	1,957.68	25.52	0	Upward Expansion	64	67
2024-03-29	2,380.22	1,929.04	28.04	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-03-22	2,380.22	1,900.41	30.79	0	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-03-15	2,380.22	1,871.77	32.73	0	Upward Expansion	69	69
2024-03-08	2,380.22	1,843.14	36.93	0	Upward Expansion	75	71
2024-03-01	2,380.22	1,814.51	36.65	0	Rotation Up	85	75
2024-02-23	2,380.22	1,785.87	35.17	0	Rotation Up	94	78
2024-02-16	2,380.22	1,757.24	35.15	8850	Upward Expansion	99	80
2024-02-09	2,223.62	1,728.61	26.89	0	Upward Expansion	83	94
2024-02-02	2,223.62	1,705.19	25.70	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-01-26	2,223.62	1,681.78	29.56	18900	Upward Expansion	96	99
2024-01-19	2,110.72	1,658.37	27.01	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-01-12	2,110.33	1,638.72	27.44	3441	Deceleration	93	78
2024-01-05	1,747.06	1,619.08	5.05	0	Deceleration	56	62
2023-12-29	1,747.06	1,611.55	2.98	0	Deceleration	57	63
2023-12-22	1,747.06	1,604.02	3.05	0	Deceleration	57	64
2023-12-15	1,747.06	1,596.49	3.40	0	Deceleration	57	65
2023-12-08	1,747.06	1,588.97	8.60	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2023-12-01	1,747.06	1,581.44	9.73	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2023-11-24	1,747.06	1,573.91	11.93	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2023-11-17	1,747.06	1,566.38	12.73	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2023-11-10	1,747.06	1,558.85	16.14	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2023-11-03	1,747.06	1,551.33	16.49	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2023-10-27	1,747.06	1,543.80	22.30	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2023-10-20	1,747.06	1,536.27	24.45	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2023-10-13	1,747.06	1,528.74	21.98	1293	Upward Expansion	93	97
2023-10-06	1,521.21	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—

Price vs TrendBelow-12.9%

Trend directionFalling-6.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-34.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-13.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-15.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-10.8%

Price momentumNegative-16.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-83 / ±100

-19.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

94 /100

+16.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

RYAAYN Directional State ↗ RYAAYN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance15

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down83

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 152 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 3%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 36%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 13%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	-10.4%
Rotation Down	2026-07-24	2026-07-31	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-06-26	2026-07-17	New	-1.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-06-19	Developing	-5.9%
Rotation Down	2026-02-20	2026-04-17	Developing	-6.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-02-13	Developing	-0.2%
Rotation Up	2025-11-21	2025-12-05	New	+4.5%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	+4.1%
Rotation Down	2025-09-26	2025-10-10	New	+4.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-13	2025-09-19	Established	+8.8%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-06-06	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2025-05-23	2025-05-30	New	+0.0%
Balance	2025-05-09	2025-05-16	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2025-04-18	2025-05-02	New	+1.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution23

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: -15.67
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -16.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -13.6%
Industrials regime cohort: 57th percentile23 in cohort

Test RYAAYN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore RYAAYN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 920.59falling

Slow Activity MXN 1,014.83falling

Trend Reference MXN 1,040.66-12.9% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 1,390.37-34.8% close margin

Structural low MXN 906.25shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +2.2%

Annualized volatility +25.9%

From structural high -25.6%

From structural low +0.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	21	+0.0%-61.3% to +15.5%	+42.9%	+28.6%	+1.5%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-1.7%-58.6% to +15.5%	+37.5%	+62.5%	-6.8%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-11.1%-59.8% to +56.5%	+40.0%	+60.0%	-9.2%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-26.3%-41.4% to +23.3%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-26.4%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

RYAAYN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map