Weekly structural research · PAR · Consumer Defensive

MLSDN Stage Analysis

La Savonnerie De Nyons

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 31.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^FCHI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and stable.

Direction 19−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 18/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatestable separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +7.7%EUR 28.79 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	31.00	30.38	7.96	1	Deceleration	19	18
2026-10-02	29.40	30.44	1.31	80	Deceleration	-31	29
2026-09-25	30.00	30.49	1.25	205	Deceleration	11	11
2026-09-18	31.00	30.53	4.80	276	Deceleration	38	28
2026-09-11	31.20	30.49	4.06	87	Deceleration	40	19
2026-09-04	31.00	30.45	2.31	0	Deceleration	14	26
2026-08-28	30.80	30.42	0.35	1	Deceleration	-12	25
2026-08-21	29.80	30.37	-3.73	0	Deceleration	-18	26
2026-08-14	29.80	30.33	-5.30	20	Deceleration	6	15
2026-08-07	31.00	30.30	-2.42	0	Deceleration	35	23
2026-07-31	31.00	30.22	0.02	0	Upward Expansion	39	21
2026-07-24	31.40	30.16	3.05	0	Upward Expansion	45	30
2026-07-17	30.60	30.11	0.97	15	Upward Expansion	57	39
2026-07-10	31.80	30.09	5.04	0	Upward Expansion	64	72
2026-07-03	32.20	30.02	4.53	2	Upward Expansion	72	80
2026-06-26	31.80	29.99	4.72	14	Upward Expansion	68	79
2026-06-19	31.99	29.91	4.84	20	Balance	71	71
2026-06-12	31.59	29.88	4.30	0	Balance	37	35
2026-06-05	31.99	29.86	7.31	0	Balance	21	22
2026-05-29	29.69	29.72	0.15	65	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2026-05-22	29.50	29.74	0.50	141	Downward Expansion	-50	28
2026-05-15	29.12	29.75	1.42	132	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2026-05-08	27.58	29.69	-5.69	276	Rotation Down	-77	67
2026-05-01	29.69	29.76	1.31	1	Rotation Down	-28	35
2026-04-24	27.97	29.67	-5.06	0	Deceleration	-45	45
2026-04-17	29.20	29.71	-4.17	61	Deceleration	-9	27
2026-04-10	29.20	29.71	-2.40	272	Upward Expansion	11	19
2026-04-03	29.20	29.66	1.05	19	Upward Expansion	22	16
2026-03-27	29.00	29.56	3.83	273	Upward Expansion	39	36
2026-03-20	32.00	29.47	15.44	845	Upward Expansion	74	83
2026-03-13	32.60	29.27	14.55	316	Upward Expansion	92	89
2026-03-06	31.00	29.11	8.34	100	Upward Expansion	71	72
2026-02-27	31.20	28.96	1.96	1	Deceleration	69	54
2026-02-20	29.80	28.80	-1.79	40	Deceleration	36	25
2026-02-13	30.00	28.71	1.30	271	Deceleration	37	20
2026-02-06	30.00	28.62	1.81	195	Deceleration	22	11
2026-01-30	29.40	28.48	1.59	43	Deceleration	6	15
2026-01-23	28.60	28.49	-1.19	288	Deceleration	-2	18
2026-01-16	28.80	28.52	-1.89	5	Deceleration	15	17
2026-01-09	28.80	28.57	-3.22	28	Deceleration	23	16
2026-01-02	29.00	28.59	-0.86	69	Upward Expansion	32	16
2025-12-26	30.00	28.57	3.42	11	Upward Expansion	41	27
2025-12-19	30.00	28.43	2.92	103	Upward Expansion	52	31
2025-12-12	29.80	28.28	3.34	866	Upward Expansion	54	37
2025-12-05	31.20	28.18	7.39	793	Upward Expansion	68	59
2025-11-28	29.40	28.10	1.31	2	Upward Expansion	58	46
2025-11-21	31.00	28.06	8.50	11	Upward Expansion	71	69
2025-11-14	31.00	27.96	5.97	27	Upward Expansion	74	64
2025-11-07	28.00	27.84	-1.72	20	Upward Expansion	49	31
2025-10-31	30.00	27.83	2.90	0	Upward Expansion	68	62
2025-10-24	30.00	27.69	1.52	200	Balance	68	44
2025-10-17	27.40	27.54	-6.89	699	Balance	44	35
2025-10-10	29.40	27.48	3.00	4	Balance	66	58
2025-10-03	27.20	27.36	-6.60	201	Balance	32	29
2025-09-26	29.20	27.32	2.80	300	Balance	61	44
2025-09-19	29.20	27.29	3.32	250	Balance	23	14
2025-09-12	27.60	27.26	-1.92	168	Balance	-7	17
2025-09-05	26.20	27.30	-5.11	737	Balance	-54	33
2025-08-29	26.20	27.39	-5.60	540	Balance	-46	29
2025-08-22	26.00	27.38	-9.45	174	Balance	-21	21
2025-08-15	28.00	27.44	-2.06	241	Balance	-7	13
2025-08-08	26.40	27.46	-5.53	0	Balance	-18	24
2025-08-01	26.40	27.57	-3.19	83	Balance	-18	22
2025-07-25	27.20	27.68	-4.09	69	Balance	-7	13
2025-07-18	27.20	27.63	-4.02	657	Upward Expansion	25	12
2025-07-11	25.80	27.59	-9.13	638	Upward Expansion	30	24
2025-07-04	29.60	27.73	6.01	146	Upward Expansion	57	61
2025-06-27	29.65	27.59	6.53	26	Balance	59	56
2025-06-20	30.23	27.56	10.26	363	Balance	37	43
2025-06-13	29.27	27.51	5.79	194	Balance	21	10
2025-06-06	28.69	27.49	2.23	47	Balance	-13	15
2025-05-30	25.61	27.48	-8.17	5	Balance	-57	33
2025-05-23	25.42	27.57	-8.90	344	Rotation Up	-50	20
2025-05-16	26.96	27.73	-5.48	387	Rotation Up	7	21
2025-05-09	28.88	27.75	2.98	350	Rotation Up	34	39
2025-05-02	28.11	27.70	0.00	0	Downward Expansion	9	25
2025-04-25	28.11	27.68	3.04	347	Downward Expansion	-15	17
2025-04-18	27.34	27.57	3.61	153	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2025-04-11	27.73	27.56	7.68	5	Downward Expansion	-52	59
2025-04-04	25.61	27.53	-2.78	0	Downward Expansion	-69	88
2025-03-28	25.61	27.57	-10.68	0	Rotation Down	-69	81
2025-03-21	25.61	27.59	-12.32	11	Rotation Down	-45	68
2025-03-14	25.80	27.63	-11.62	100	Balance	-38	49
2025-03-07	25.80	27.66	-12.84	299	Balance	-23	16
2025-02-28	28.31	27.68	-4.56	40	Balance	43	27
2025-02-21	28.31	27.66	-5.17	36	Balance	42	16
2025-02-14	28.88	27.63	-3.44	0	Balance	41	17
2025-02-07	28.88	27.59	-0.84	107	Balance	32	14
2025-01-31	26.00	27.49	-10.54	63	Balance	-5	5
2025-01-24	27.73	27.49	-4.54	1	Balance	44	32
2025-01-17	28.69	27.44	1.34	5	Balance	48	36
2025-01-10	29.65	27.34	8.47	0	Balance	55	23
2025-01-03	29.65	27.24	10.66	2	Balance	37	14
2024-12-27	25.80	27.26	-4.65	1	Balance	-20	21
2024-12-20	26.00	27.42	-3.10	114	Balance	13	12
2024-12-13	29.85	27.56	9.04	14	Rotation Up	53	23
2024-12-06	25.61	27.58	-6.54	5	Rotation Up	-17	11
2024-11-29	28.69	27.69	7.19	0	Rotation Up	27	22
2024-11-22	28.69	27.73	6.95	0	Rotation Up	27	24
2024-11-15	28.69	27.80	6.76	4	Rotation Up	30	43
2024-11-08	28.31	27.88	4.22	0	Rotation Up	20	38
2024-11-01	28.31	27.93	3.02	130	Rotation Up	18	26
2024-10-25	30.23	27.95	8.49	140	Balance	44	39
2024-10-18	27.54	27.96	-2.86	0	Balance	-11	8
2024-10-11	27.54	27.98	-2.79	193	Downward Expansion	-26	16
2024-10-04	27.54	28.06	-2.63	19	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2024-09-27	24.65	28.14	-15.89	48	Downward Expansion	-81	61
2024-09-20	26.96	28.30	-4.93	73	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2024-09-13	26.96	28.28	-4.75	0	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2024-09-06	26.96	28.25	-3.51	59	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2024-08-30	26.00	28.29	-10.48	5	Downward Expansion	-68	56
2024-08-23	26.96	28.37	-6.81	80	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2024-08-16	26.57	28.47	-6.66	0	Downward Expansion	-49	32
2024-08-09	26.57	28.59	-4.63	99	Downward Expansion	-46	25
2024-08-02	27.73	28.70	-0.44	120	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2024-07-26	27.15	28.78	-6.09	40	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2024-07-19	27.73	28.87	-4.30	21	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2024-07-12	26.00	28.93	-12.48	0	Downward Expansion	-68	82
2024-07-05	26.00	29.02	-12.07	334	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2024-06-28	26.28	29.15	-8.93	126	Downward Expansion	-67	72
2024-06-21	25.54	29.22	-13.48	104	Balance	-64	59
2024-06-14	26.84	29.32	-7.90	218	Balance	-17	13
2024-06-07	30.20	29.43	-3.05	8	Balance	47	30
2024-05-31	30.39	29.42	-2.53	297	Balance	50	23
2024-05-24	30.39	29.40	-3.62	20	Balance	42	18
2024-05-17	30.39	29.39	-4.35	92	Rotation Up	52	24
2024-05-10	28.89	29.37	-9.56	254	Rotation Up	12	15
2024-05-03	29.83	29.40	-3.63	230	Rotation Up	53	44
2024-04-26	30.95	29.40	-1.50	0	Rotation Up	32	29
2024-04-19	30.95	29.36	-0.49	50	Rotation Up	27	24
2024-04-12	29.83	29.32	-3.97	176	Rotation Up	13	12
2024-04-05	28.89	29.33	-7.56	22	Rotation Up	-2	13
2024-03-29	30.57	29.32	-4.02	3	Downward Expansion	22	30
2024-03-22	28.15	29.29	-11.08	13	Downward Expansion	-33	32
2024-03-15	30.01	29.25	-5.57	128	Downward Expansion	-6	15
2024-03-08	30.01	29.24	-4.13	356	Downward Expansion	-35	33
2024-03-01	29.45	29.24	-4.86	44	Downward Expansion	-51	70
2024-02-23	26.28	29.25	-15.48	196	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2024-02-16	25.91	29.27	-14.94	86	Downward Expansion	-89	89
2024-02-09	28.34	29.32	-5.73	0	Upward Expansion	-42	42
2024-02-02	28.34	29.28	-5.14	55	Upward Expansion	6	4
2024-01-26	30.01	29.23	-0.11	0	Upward Expansion	58	56
2024-01-19	30.01	29.23	3.48	0	Upward Expansion	57	53
2024-01-12	30.01	29.22	2.26	30	Upward Expansion	51	38
2024-01-05	30.01	29.21	2.92	32	Deceleration	48	29
2023-12-29	29.83	29.20	0.64	50	Deceleration	43	23
2023-12-22	29.64	29.06	-0.29	144	Deceleration	19	17
2023-12-15	28.71	28.92	-4.09	2	Deceleration	-12	31
2023-12-08	29.83	28.86	0.18	107	Deceleration	27	25
2023-12-01	28.52	28.77	-2.07	0	Deceleration	-12	23
2023-11-24	28.52	28.68	-1.60	53	Upward Expansion	14	11
2023-11-17	30.01	28.58	4.35	0	Upward Expansion	55	37
2023-11-10	30.01	28.57	7.22	5	Upward Expansion	57	38
2023-11-03	29.83	28.50	6.64	0	Upward Expansion	56	52
2023-10-27	29.83	28.44	10.46	1	Upward Expansion	56	48
2023-10-20	29.83	28.37	10.16	3	Upward Expansion	59	59

Price vs TrendAbove+2.0%

Trend directionRising+0.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+7.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+8.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.9%

Price momentumPositive+6.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.15×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

19 / ±100

-20.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

18 /100

-0.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MLSDN Directional State ↗ MLSDN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance43

Rotation Up34

Upward Expansion46

Deceleration65

Rotation Down33

Downward Expansion37

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 27%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 23%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 20%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-10-09	Developing	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	-2.5%
Balance	2026-06-05	2026-06-19	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-05-29	New	+2.0%
Rotation Down	2026-05-01	2026-05-08	New	-7.1%
Deceleration	2026-04-17	2026-04-24	New	-4.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-04-10	Developing	-5.8%
Deceleration	2026-01-09	2026-02-27	Developing	+8.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-31	2026-01-02	Developing	-3.3%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-10-24	Established	+10.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-07-18	New	-8.1%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-06-27	Developing	+15.8%
Rotation Up	2025-05-09	2025-05-23	New	-12.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-05-02	Developing	+9.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing68

Stage 3 · Distribution71

Stage 4 · Declining32

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FCHI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 62/100
Current Relative Strength: 7.96
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +6.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +11.7%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 33th percentile6 in cohort

Test MLSDN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.03×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.15×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MLSDN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 30.39falling

Slow Activity EUR 30.62falling

Trend Reference EUR 30.38+2.0% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 28.79+7.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 27.20shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +2.7%

Annualized volatility +24.3%

From structural high -8.3%

From structural low +14.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FCHI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+1.1%-7.3% to +11.0%	+61.5%	+61.5%	+5.0%	+61.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+1.5%-1.7% to +4.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-0.1%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+3.4%-1.7% to +10.4%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+3.1%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-0.4%-1.4% to +0.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+4.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MLSDN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map