Weekly structural research · MIL · Financial Services

MET Stage Analysis

Met.Extra Group S.p.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 2.44Tenure DevelopingBenchmark FTSEMIB.MI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 11−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 12/100directional strength

Maturity 55/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +13.4%EUR 2.15 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	2.44	2.31	11.44	9812	Deceleration	11	12
2026-10-02	2.50	2.29	12.58	2836	Deceleration	11	21
2026-09-25	2.32	2.27	1.69	1696	Deceleration	-7	25
2026-09-18	2.40	2.26	6.28	2726	Deceleration	17	18
2026-09-11	2.34	2.24	2.22	20459	Deceleration	16	17
2026-09-04	2.48	2.22	9.69	700	Deceleration	45	40
2026-08-28	2.56	2.20	12.82	445	Deceleration	50	55
2026-08-21	2.58	2.18	14.25	656	Deceleration	49	44
2026-08-14	2.48	2.16	8.59	500	Deceleration	39	27
2026-08-07	2.54	2.14	11.48	6900	Deceleration	43	32
2026-07-31	2.50	2.11	13.55	500	Upward Expansion	46	38
2026-07-24	2.46	2.08	13.05	30	Upward Expansion	61	52
2026-07-17	2.58	2.05	18.83	1288	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-07-10	2.62	2.02	19.63	1736	Upward Expansion	67	80
2026-07-03	2.78	1.99	27.11	2710	Upward Expansion	82	90
2026-06-26	2.76	1.96	30.85	23339	Upward Expansion	87	92
2026-06-19	2.50	1.93	15.50	5198	Upward Expansion	72	87
2026-06-12	2.44	1.91	15.87	2040	Upward Expansion	71	84
2026-06-05	2.48	1.89	21.83	2101	Upward Expansion	78	83
2026-05-29	2.38	1.87	16.96	104212	Upward Expansion	74	69
2026-05-22	2.40	1.86	19.44	120034	Upward Expansion	69	46
2026-05-15	1.79	1.85	-9.99	38119	Balance	-22	29
2026-05-08	1.80	1.85	-9.91	11064	Balance	-22	28
2026-05-01	1.68	1.86	-14.09	21044	Balance	-34	26
2026-04-24	1.80	1.87	-6.95	14188	Balance	-10	9
2026-04-17	1.89	1.86	-4.79	1281	Upward Expansion	31	15
2026-04-10	1.84	1.85	-4.96	29200	Upward Expansion	40	22
2026-04-03	1.91	1.84	2.47	10232	Upward Expansion	46	24
2026-03-27	2.00	1.82	12.77	1103	Upward Expansion	54	27
2026-03-20	2.02	1.81	15.54	20980	Upward Expansion	59	30
2026-03-13	1.79	1.79	-0.81	1607	Upward Expansion	29	15
2026-03-06	1.84	1.78	2.17	11304	Upward Expansion	50	29
2026-02-27	2.02	1.77	4.73	31631	Upward Expansion	65	48
2026-02-20	1.85	1.75	-2.79	25151	Upward Expansion	52	38
2026-02-13	1.94	1.74	3.69	13530	Upward Expansion	60	47
2026-02-06	1.89	1.73	-0.47	5136	Balance	44	34
2026-01-30	1.88	1.72	-0.93	6481	Balance	43	31
2026-01-23	1.83	1.71	-2.77	12577	Balance	29	15
2026-01-16	1.89	1.70	-2.50	24162	Rotation Down	19	16
2026-01-09	1.78	1.70	-8.79	6884	Rotation Down	-19	35
2026-01-02	1.52	1.70	-22.28	3914	Deceleration	-35	45
2025-12-26	1.60	1.70	-17.95	290	Deceleration	-4	16
2025-12-19	1.75	1.71	-11.61	11581	Deceleration	24	16
2025-12-12	1.68	1.71	-13.58	1319	Deceleration	21	15
2025-12-05	1.81	1.70	-7.58	1000	Deceleration	39	22
2025-11-28	1.97	1.69	-0.08	8797	Deceleration	46	28
2025-11-21	1.81	1.67	-7.48	1079	Upward Expansion	43	30
2025-11-14	1.92	1.66	-5.70	3474	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-11-07	1.90	1.65	-5.11	8350	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-10-31	2.00	1.64	-1.63	16348	Upward Expansion	64	77
2025-10-24	1.96	1.62	-2.76	9383	Upward Expansion	64	79
2025-10-17	2.00	1.61	0.14	7493	Upward Expansion	70	79
2025-10-10	2.00	1.60	-1.24	30789	Rotation Up	75	73
2025-10-03	2.14	1.59	2.16	159709	Rotation Up	39	34
2025-09-26	1.52	1.58	-26.79	6715	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2025-09-19	1.49	1.59	-28.37	3319	Downward Expansion	-54	42
2025-09-12	1.46	1.60	-31.09	6205	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2025-09-05	1.40	1.62	-33.28	5205	Downward Expansion	-68	45
2025-08-29	1.50	1.65	-30.37	15997	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2025-08-22	1.55	1.67	-30.86	8988	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2025-08-15	1.52	1.68	-31.74	11538	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2025-08-08	1.50	1.71	-31.60	6526	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2025-08-01	1.51	1.73	-29.12	16863	Balance	-56	42
2025-07-25	1.60	1.75	-27.19	25079	Balance	-39	31
2025-07-18	1.54	1.77	-29.91	4782	Balance	-45	37
2025-07-11	1.54	1.79	-30.21	5125	Balance	-44	26
2025-07-04	1.54	1.81	-30.21	1556	Balance	-39	18
2025-06-27	1.75	1.83	-21.72	5966	Balance	-6	14
2025-06-20	1.73	1.84	-22.32	221	Downward Expansion	-10	17
2025-06-13	1.68	1.86	-25.80	12098	Downward Expansion	-25	24
2025-06-06	1.74	1.87	-26.28	7318	Downward Expansion	-29	26
2025-05-30	1.73	1.89	-26.60	9061	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2025-05-23	1.72	1.91	-26.60	8673	Downward Expansion	-48	36
2025-05-16	1.58	1.93	-35.27	11463	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-05-09	1.43	1.95	-40.15	3032	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2025-05-02	1.45	1.97	-38.38	1428	Downward Expansion	-72	65
2025-04-25	1.47	1.99	-36.65	310	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2025-04-18	1.47	2.02	-34.96	2369	Downward Expansion	-78	66
2025-04-11	1.65	2.04	-23.78	7074	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-04-04	1.51	2.06	-32.03	8138	Downward Expansion	-83	91
2025-03-28	1.63	2.09	-35.05	8940	Downward Expansion	-77	88
2025-03-21	1.66	2.11	-35.23	5356	Downward Expansion	-81	91
2025-03-14	1.70	2.13	-33.82	7761	Downward Expansion	-84	88
2025-03-07	1.74	2.14	-32.94	5444	Downward Expansion	-87	84
2025-02-28	1.85	2.15	-29.64	2499	Downward Expansion	-83	76
2025-02-21	1.99	2.16	-24.88	26585	Downward Expansion	-67	60
2025-02-14	2.04	2.18	-22.87	7522	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2025-02-07	2.08	2.18	-20.45	634	Downward Expansion	-53	38
2025-01-31	2.08	2.20	-20.41	2835	Downward Expansion	-54	30
2025-01-24	2.12	2.20	-19.30	4829	Downward Expansion	-37	15
2025-01-17	2.18	2.21	-17.90	6416	Downward Expansion	-32	14
2025-01-10	2.12	2.22	-18.32	6359	Downward Expansion	-41	20
2025-01-03	2.24	2.24	-12.00	3150	Downward Expansion	-29	17
2024-12-27	2.14	2.26	-16.08	2950	Downward Expansion	-53	41
2024-12-20	2.10	2.27	-16.64	4850	Balance	-58	45
2024-12-13	2.10	2.29	-19.56	15693	Balance	-57	42
2024-12-06	2.14	2.30	-18.00	2635	Balance	-53	37
2024-11-29	2.18	2.32	-13.34	10489	Balance	-45	26
2024-11-22	2.16	2.33	-14.67	6988	Balance	-46	22
2024-11-15	2.16	2.34	-16.77	11716	Balance	-36	15
2024-11-08	2.26	2.36	-12.57	3774	Balance	-18	13
2024-11-01	2.24	2.37	-16.00	5671	Downward Expansion	-31	14
2024-10-25	2.30	2.39	-14.50	0	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2024-10-18	2.30	2.41	-15.99	600	Downward Expansion	-49	30
2024-10-11	2.10	2.43	-21.84	1210	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2024-10-04	2.12	2.46	-20.09	6701	Downward Expansion	-54	31
2024-09-27	2.10	2.48	-24.19	12994	Downward Expansion	-48	26
2024-09-20	2.26	2.52	-16.82	5498	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2024-09-13	2.30	2.54	-15.55	511	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2024-09-06	2.20	2.57	-19.08	2794	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2024-08-30	2.48	2.61	-12.34	21719	Downward Expansion	-54	40
2024-08-23	1.99	2.64	-28.57	3680	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2024-08-16	2.00	2.66	-27.64	3030	Downward Expansion	-78	68
2024-08-09	2.22	2.70	-17.25	6234	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2024-08-02	2.24	2.72	-17.80	2133	Downward Expansion	-66	56
2024-07-26	2.30	2.71	-20.83	11222	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2024-07-19	2.28	2.70	-23.01	4054	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-07-12	2.48	2.70	-17.83	20006	Downward Expansion	-55	54
2024-07-05	2.30	2.69	-23.06	22764	Downward Expansion	-69	60
2024-06-28	2.36	2.68	-19.88	6559	Deceleration	-38	32
2024-06-21	2.58	2.69	-13.56	14958	Deceleration	-14	13
2024-06-14	2.62	2.68	-11.40	4988	Deceleration	-11	10
2024-06-07	2.68	2.68	-15.40	12565	Deceleration	-14	13
2024-05-31	2.50	2.68	-21.40	9461	Deceleration	-25	20
2024-05-24	2.72	2.68	-15.49	6250	Rotation Down	-16	20
2024-05-17	2.56	2.67	-23.16	9841	Rotation Down	-21	37
2024-05-10	2.54	2.67	-23.03	7104	Rotation Down	-22	37
2024-05-03	2.56	2.67	-20.98	3004	Deceleration	-19	32
2024-04-26	2.56	2.69	-23.26	3743	Deceleration	-19	22
2024-04-19	2.80	2.69	-15.97	5960	Deceleration	12	14
2024-04-12	2.52	2.70	-24.75	2610	Deceleration	2	9
2024-04-05	2.66	2.70	-22.03	9405	Deceleration	24	14
2024-03-29	3.04	2.71	-13.82	10379	Deceleration	36	18
2024-03-22	2.88	2.70	-18.24	14250	Deceleration	34	16
2024-03-15	2.88	2.70	-18.31	30070	Deceleration	37	18
2024-03-08	2.86	2.70	-18.62	15057	Rotation Up	42	26
2024-03-01	3.18	2.70	-9.21	7035	Rotation Up	60	43
2024-02-23	2.86	2.70	-18.44	11538	Rotation Up	33	51
2024-02-16	3.22	2.71	-6.34	22458	Rotation Up	36	62
2024-02-09	3.52	2.70	3.58	25087	Rotation Up	44	62
2024-02-02	3.22	2.69	-4.33	7564	Rotation Up	38	42
2024-01-26	2.80	2.68	-16.52	4443	Downward Expansion	18	26
2024-01-19	3.00	2.70	-11.10	72018	Downward Expansion	-5	10
2024-01-12	2.82	2.71	-17.71	25293	Downward Expansion	-24	24
2024-01-05	2.10	2.73	-39.36	8965	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2023-12-29	1.84	2.77	-47.48	7948	Downward Expansion	-87	84
2023-12-22	2.24	2.83	-37.24	3643	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2023-12-15	2.26	2.86	-37.60	1640	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2023-12-08	2.16	2.90	-41.28	13183	Downward Expansion	-78	56
2023-12-01	2.40	2.95	-34.65	5399	Downward Expansion	-68	47
2023-11-24	2.40	2.99	-34.45	3027	Downward Expansion	-72	49
2023-11-17	2.68	3.02	-27.92	702	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2023-11-10	2.60	3.05	-28.46	1570	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2023-11-03	2.52	3.09	-31.98	1319	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2023-10-27	2.40	3.13	-32.79	7121	Downward Expansion	-78	60
2023-10-20	2.56	3.18	-29.40	6388	Downward Expansion	-74	52

Price vs TrendAbove+5.7%

Trend directionRising+9.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+13.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+11.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-8.2%

Price momentumPositive+32.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.39×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

11 / ±100

-4.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

12 /100

-4.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MET Directional State ↗ MET Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion43

Deceleration84

Rotation Down32

Downward Expansion33

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 13%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 43%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-10-09	Developing	-3.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-07-31	Developing	+4.2%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-0.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-04-17	Developing	-2.6%
Balance	2026-01-23	2026-02-06	New	+3.3%
Rotation Down	2026-01-09	2026-01-16	New	+6.2%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2026-01-02	Developing	-22.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-17	2025-11-21	Developing	-9.5%
Rotation Up	2025-10-03	2025-10-10	New	-6.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-09-26	Developing	+1.3%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-08-01	Developing	-13.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-06-20	Established	-19.2%
Balance	2024-11-08	2024-12-20	Developing	-7.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-05	2024-11-01	Established	-2.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing12

Stage 2 · Advancing99

Stage 3 · Distribution65

Stage 4 · Declining1

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus FTSEMIB.MI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 11/100
Current Relative Strength: 11.44
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +32.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +28.1%
Financial Services regime cohort: 17th percentile12 in cohort

Test MET trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.03×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.39×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MET Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 2.42falling

Slow Activity EUR 2.43rising

Trend Reference EUR 2.31+5.7% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 2.15+13.4% close margin

Structural low EUR 1.68shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.5%

Annualized volatility +50.8%

From structural high -14.7%

From structural low +60.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs FTSEMIB.MI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	-1.8%-18.8% to +14.4%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-2.7%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-9.0%-12.2% to +2.5%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-8.4%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	-14.2%-20.1% to +20.8%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-19.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-46.9%-52.8% to -41.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-46.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MET Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map