Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

MXL Stage Analysis

MaxLinear Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 96.16Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 59−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 60/100directional strength

Maturity 22/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +250.1%USD 27.46 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	96.16	72.27	81.39	15063986	Upward Expansion	59	60
2026-10-02	105.93	69.63	106.09	15406454	Deceleration	69	51
2026-09-25	93.84	66.62	89.88	18403774	Deceleration	45	24
2026-09-18	81.12	64.08	74.57	15354933	Deceleration	26	14
2026-09-11	74.57	61.99	66.19	10401183	Deceleration	7	14
2026-09-04	62.74	60.15	42.40	11410534	Deceleration	1	12
2026-08-28	61.73	58.69	43.30	8657631	Deceleration	1	7
2026-08-21	66.61	57.21	58.24	12472981	Deceleration	9	10
2026-08-14	84.84	55.60	100.73	11027640	Deceleration	22	15
2026-08-07	74.98	53.42	84.87	12180741	Deceleration	16	18
2026-07-31	66.82	51.55	77.86	21949911	Deceleration	29	20
2026-07-24	71.59	49.94	96.41	30921955	Deceleration	38	21
2026-07-17	71.84	48.14	99.39	15789604	Upward Expansion	44	31
2026-07-10	91.30	46.34	149.76	13907732	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-07-03	93.12	43.87	169.51	21076258	Upward Expansion	61	48
2026-06-26	96.60	41.40	194.12	20613711	Upward Expansion	60	52
2026-06-19	88.76	38.70	170.49	11711792	Upward Expansion	64	57
2026-06-12	84.46	36.19	175.60	18413518	Upward Expansion	64	63
2026-06-05	80.92	33.84	182.27	26675091	Upward Expansion	67	67
2026-05-29	92.93	31.63	223.57	24223818	Upward Expansion	69	77
2026-05-22	99.16	29.04	274.48	20067584	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-05-15	92.34	26.26	275.54	27055963	Upward Expansion	89	96
2026-05-08	99.83	23.74	330.04	27175765	Upward Expansion	100	100
2026-05-01	77.18	20.89	276.73	51387093	Upward Expansion	98	99
2026-04-24	60.32	18.87	217.58	55528727	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-04-17	26.27	17.40	48.27	9265052	Upward Expansion	84	77
2026-04-10	20.69	17.06	25.53	5355402	Balance	52	30
2026-04-03	17.98	16.89	14.94	4015692	Balance	15	10
2026-03-27	17.00	16.82	13.71	3887861	Balance	-13	19
2026-03-20	16.56	16.77	7.71	6476736	Balance	-13	20
2026-03-13	16.89	16.77	7.85	4672908	Balance	11	15
2026-03-06	15.72	16.71	-0.49	5960577	Upward Expansion	12	10
2026-02-27	17.43	16.69	8.99	6279141	Upward Expansion	38	23
2026-02-20	18.47	16.62	15.19	3507236	Upward Expansion	50	28
2026-02-13	19.53	16.55	23.07	4670079	Upward Expansion	63	35
2026-02-06	18.72	16.44	16.66	6898566	Upward Expansion	57	34
2026-01-30	17.35	16.31	5.92	8671997	Upward Expansion	56	36
2026-01-23	18.41	16.23	11.72	4202158	Upward Expansion	61	56
2026-01-16	19.30	16.08	16.18	6269325	Upward Expansion	70	65
2026-01-09	19.00	15.88	12.15	5350041	Upward Expansion	70	65
2026-01-02	18.51	15.64	10.84	2574533	Upward Expansion	66	64
2025-12-26	17.73	15.43	3.62	2596879	Upward Expansion	59	60
2025-12-19	17.63	15.22	3.52	6863774	Balance	58	48
2025-12-12	17.41	15.02	2.20	7069001	Balance	54	40
2025-12-05	18.82	14.85	7.57	10262684	Balance	53	25
2025-11-28	15.57	14.60	-10.52	5961572	Balance	-8	16
2025-11-21	13.60	14.44	-18.24	4749265	Balance	-22	29
2025-11-14	13.90	14.32	-19.44	4156522	Balance	-2	11
2025-11-07	14.76	14.20	-14.94	6039426	Balance	14	8
2025-10-31	15.15	14.04	-15.78	7978100	Upward Expansion	32	15
2025-10-24	15.62	13.84	-11.70	13378795	Upward Expansion	37	21
2025-10-17	16.97	13.69	-2.30	6968125	Upward Expansion	59	31
2025-10-10	14.33	13.54	-15.51	5369553	Upward Expansion	32	20
2025-10-03	16.45	13.49	-5.51	5659248	Upward Expansion	58	36
2025-09-26	16.09	13.36	-6.49	4517610	Upward Expansion	56	35
2025-09-19	16.19	13.31	-6.60	6127836	Upward Expansion	57	36
2025-09-12	15.75	13.33	-7.30	5533760	Upward Expansion	53	36
2025-09-05	15.63	13.34	-6.53	4413917	Upward Expansion	54	37
2025-08-29	15.72	13.37	-5.20	9377167	Upward Expansion	56	38
2025-08-22	16.35	13.44	-1.97	7430594	Upward Expansion	65	43
2025-08-15	15.29	13.67	-9.06	5550784	Rotation Up	31	33
2025-08-08	15.13	13.96	-9.58	7912347	Rotation Up	34	40
2025-08-01	15.21	14.14	-5.67	9419611	Rotation Up	37	54
2025-07-25	16.36	14.32	-0.80	18557789	Rotation Up	40	67
2025-07-18	16.20	14.46	-0.81	5830028	Rotation Up	45	70
2025-07-11	14.94	14.56	-8.67	3836133	Rotation Up	19	54
2025-07-04	14.79	14.75	-11.02	2840708	Balance	16	29
2025-06-27	14.14	14.90	-14.64	5710497	Balance	6	16
2025-06-20	13.17	14.93	-18.05	4312364	Downward Expansion	-18	14
2025-06-13	11.67	15.01	-28.19	4149722	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2025-06-06	12.28	15.10	-25.60	6462310	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2025-05-30	11.39	15.22	-30.16	4329370	Downward Expansion	-38	26
2025-05-23	11.57	15.29	-28.46	4040392	Downward Expansion	-40	29
2025-05-16	12.43	15.40	-25.75	5325872	Downward Expansion	-44	37
2025-05-09	11.36	15.46	-28.32	5418249	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2025-05-02	10.69	15.55	-33.41	7242164	Downward Expansion	-62	69
2025-04-25	10.14	15.65	-35.57	11828854	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2025-04-18	10.22	15.81	-31.95	4511568	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2025-04-11	9.84	15.94	-36.85	8697350	Downward Expansion	-73	78
2025-04-04	9.31	16.09	-36.79	9552776	Rotation Down	-82	83
2025-03-28	10.99	16.22	-33.83	5073599	Rotation Down	-52	73
2025-03-21	12.70	16.35	-26.08	6028588	Rotation Down	-35	65
2025-03-14	12.68	16.36	-26.58	6749611	Rotation Down	-39	64
2025-03-07	12.63	16.35	-29.23	12966486	Rotation Down	-41	54
2025-02-28	14.61	16.31	-21.70	13210982	Deceleration	-28	35
2025-02-21	16.60	16.24	-14.82	3598889	Deceleration	13	26
2025-02-14	16.21	16.12	-19.16	7134792	Deceleration	17	20
2025-02-07	16.46	16.37	-16.20	13220960	Upward Expansion	33	24
2025-01-31	17.86	16.58	-9.53	22316492	Upward Expansion	60	44
2025-01-24	23.17	16.71	15.30	7856216	Upward Expansion	73	73
2025-01-17	24.05	16.61	20.95	8318172	Upward Expansion	84	77
2025-01-10	20.63	16.48	6.36	5917966	Rotation Up	67	69
2025-01-03	20.61	16.40	3.33	4022167	Rotation Up	44	69
2024-12-27	20.50	16.28	1.22	2646293	Rotation Up	47	69
2024-12-20	19.07	16.19	-5.87	8934181	Rotation Up	37	61
2024-12-13	20.68	16.17	-1.28	7670439	Rotation Up	44	59
2024-12-06	19.26	16.13	-8.03	12172386	Balance	37	39
2024-11-29	15.13	16.11	-25.85	3857730	Balance	-13	12
2024-11-22	15.54	16.27	-23.96	3843219	Balance	-13	9
2024-11-15	14.30	16.44	-29.26	4387450	Balance	-22	12
2024-11-08	16.04	16.62	-23.98	8983755	Downward Expansion	-15	9
2024-11-01	13.47	16.82	-33.07	12265220	Downward Expansion	-55	30
2024-10-25	14.85	17.12	-28.03	11408924	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2024-10-18	14.15	17.25	-31.73	5732878	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2024-10-11	14.24	17.38	-32.03	3973016	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2024-10-04	13.42	17.50	-36.00	6663243	Downward Expansion	-45	28
2024-09-27	15.20	17.75	-28.47	4438929	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2024-09-20	13.93	17.92	-34.67	4814041	Downward Expansion	-44	32
2024-09-13	14.34	18.07	-32.67	4304917	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2024-09-06	13.13	18.25	-35.47	6140103	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2024-08-30	15.18	18.44	-30.68	7911040	Downward Expansion	-64	75
2024-08-23	12.76	18.53	-42.96	3431745	Downward Expansion	-65	85
2024-08-16	12.55	18.84	-44.10	5210436	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2024-08-09	11.48	19.16	-46.88	4868047	Downward Expansion	-80	84
2024-08-02	12.47	19.49	-42.91	10075841	Rotation Down	-74	63
2024-07-26	12.78	19.79	-44.11	18048489	Rotation Down	-49	21
2024-07-19	23.93	20.16	0.50	5086755	Rotation Up	53	68
2024-07-12	22.60	20.16	-10.24	3197191	Balance	35	42
2024-07-05	21.88	20.13	-14.63	2310374	Balance	17	21
2024-06-28	20.14	20.05	-19.82	4097342	Downward Expansion	-25	12
2024-06-21	20.16	20.01	-21.07	4692323	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2024-06-14	18.16	19.94	-29.72	2595634	Downward Expansion	-56	53
2024-06-07	17.21	19.92	-32.17	2339446	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2024-05-31	17.77	19.90	-29.20	1754219	Balance	-61	50
2024-05-24	18.43	19.88	-28.77	2150190	Balance	-29	27
2024-05-17	19.45	19.76	-24.96	1983110	Balance	-9	11
2024-05-10	18.52	19.78	-28.01	2535816	Balance	-16	11
2024-05-03	19.99	19.87	-21.95	3828456	Balance	28	16
2024-04-26	20.59	19.93	-19.52	6492651	Balance	42	27
2024-04-19	19.65	19.99	-20.87	3553951	Balance	26	19
2024-04-12	22.05	20.05	-17.38	4174064	Balance	44	23
2024-04-05	22.61	20.03	-17.00	8532162	Balance	17	12
2024-03-29	18.67	20.05	-33.16	1839930	Balance	-41	31
2024-03-22	18.10	20.23	-36.86	3062347	Balance	-47	26
2024-03-15	17.75	20.36	-37.58	3516715	Balance	-53	27
2024-03-08	20.97	20.52	-28.61	2486052	Balance	-27	14
2024-03-01	20.30	20.57	-33.21	3694065	Balance	-47	31
2024-02-23	18.53	20.68	-39.04	2526723	Balance	-60	43
2024-02-16	19.57	20.89	-36.04	3511849	Balance	-39	32
2024-02-09	19.04	21.37	-39.95	3986780	Balance	-44	31
2024-02-02	17.77	21.82	-44.12	6236415	Balance	-50	29
2024-01-26	22.14	22.25	-31.17	2726328	Balance	-1	10
2024-01-19	22.15	22.56	-32.22	2459008	Balance	-1	17
2024-01-12	21.25	22.79	-34.42	2170605	Balance	2	24
2024-01-05	21.69	23.10	-32.23	2548022	Downward Expansion	3	29
2023-12-29	23.77	23.35	-29.27	2111894	Downward Expansion	15	34
2023-12-22	23.90	23.52	-29.80	3171389	Downward Expansion	5	23
2023-12-15	21.80	23.71	-36.38	8861309	Downward Expansion	-27	25
2023-12-08	19.39	23.94	-42.48	2806828	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2023-12-01	18.99	24.09	-44.28	3426542	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2023-11-24	18.05	24.25	-47.87	2235060	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2023-11-17	17.60	24.45	-49.57	4431154	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2023-11-10	16.65	24.91	-52.15	5721828	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2023-11-03	17.04	25.41	-50.47	5665269	Downward Expansion	-78	90
2023-10-27	14.92	25.96	-54.53	7487940	Downward Expansion	-95	95
2023-10-20	20.09	26.64	-41.22	3311975	Downward Expansion	-72	57

Price vs TrendAbove+33.1%

Trend directionRising+40.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+250.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-48.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+81.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-68.4%

Price momentumPositive+364.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.90×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

59 / ±100

+52.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

60 /100

+45.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MXL Directional State ↗ MXL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance24

Rotation Up71

Upward Expansion84

Deceleration47

Rotation Down11

Downward Expansion13

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 26%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2026-07-24	2026-10-02	Developing	+48.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-07-17	Established	+173.5%
Balance	2026-03-13	2026-04-10	Developing	+22.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-03-06	Developing	-11.3%
Balance	2025-11-07	2025-12-19	Developing	+19.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2025-10-31	Developing	-7.3%
Rotation Up	2025-07-11	2025-08-15	Developing	+2.3%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-07-04	New	+4.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-06-20	Developing	+33.8%
Rotation Down	2025-03-07	2025-04-04	Developing	-26.3%
Deceleration	2025-02-14	2025-02-28	New	-9.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-17	2025-02-07	New	-31.6%
Rotation Up	2024-12-13	2025-01-10	Developing	-0.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing0

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution70

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: 81.39
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +364.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +341.8%
Technology regime cohort: 40th percentile97 in cohort

Test MXL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.90×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.90×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MXL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 94.86rising

Slow Activity USD 80.42rising

Trend Reference USD 72.27+33.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 27.46+250.1% close margin

Structural low USD 20.61shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +18.7%

Annualized volatility +146.2%

From structural high -25.1%

From structural low +653.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	-0.1%-32.6% to +251.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.9%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-4.1%-57.5% to +173.5%	+42.9%	+42.9%	+5.6%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+13.0%-46.2% to +260.6%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+6.3%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	2	-18.4%-19.8% to -17.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-19.4%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MXL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map