Weekly structural research · SHH · Basic Materials

600282 Stage Analysis

Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 4.54Tenure EstablishedBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -56−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 43/100directional strength

Maturity 45/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +3.5%CNY 4.39 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	4.54	4.91	-7.10	110004834	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2026-09-25	4.40	4.95	-11.18	163768753	Downward Expansion	-71	52
2026-09-18	4.50	5.00	-9.85	168978737	Downward Expansion	-66	47
2026-09-11	4.64	5.02	-6.56	177264591	Downward Expansion	-55	50
2026-09-04	4.63	5.04	-7.76	166964165	Downward Expansion	-57	60
2026-08-28	4.64	5.08	-8.08	29230560	Downward Expansion	-57	58
2026-08-21	4.51	5.11	-9.73	37392892	Downward Expansion	-67	44
2026-08-14	4.49	5.13	-10.60	19521540	Downward Expansion	-60	32
2026-08-07	4.82	5.16	-4.38	48395760	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2026-07-31	5.03	5.17	2.62	40363100	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2026-07-24	4.86	5.18	-0.29	36319607	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2026-07-17	4.74	5.18	-1.40	49206860	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2026-07-10	4.64	5.18	-9.05	35460003	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2026-07-03	4.70	5.20	-9.02	22487057	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-06-26	4.63	5.22	-9.98	27493941	Downward Expansion	-71	65
2026-06-19	4.70	5.24	-10.04	183576117	Downward Expansion	-69	61
2026-06-12	4.84	5.27	-6.03	39454240	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2026-06-05	4.96	5.29	-3.57	30843515	Downward Expansion	-59	62
2026-05-29	4.92	5.29	-5.27	208960828	Balance	-62	61
2026-05-22	4.75	5.30	-9.55	141315806	Balance	-34	48
2026-05-15	5.04	5.31	-4.62	186972095	Balance	-21	27
2026-05-08	5.35	5.31	0.19	184059788	Balance	13	10
2026-05-01	5.26	5.31	0.07	184076142	Balance	9	5
2026-04-24	5.12	5.30	-1.69	193874650	Upward Expansion	11	5
2026-04-17	5.59	5.28	8.13	146257986	Upward Expansion	36	15
2026-04-10	5.63	5.26	10.94	154421242	Upward Expansion	35	19
2026-04-03	5.31	5.22	7.81	201996838	Upward Expansion	26	14
2026-03-27	5.22	5.20	5.01	240201292	Upward Expansion	27	13
2026-03-20	5.20	5.18	3.50	405632725	Upward Expansion	42	27
2026-03-13	5.76	5.14	10.89	213215078	Upward Expansion	61	38
2026-03-06	5.66	5.10	8.21	221520685	Upward Expansion	57	33
2026-02-27	5.76	5.05	9.27	198867126	Upward Expansion	64	39
2026-02-13	5.27	5.01	2.29	219631689	Upward Expansion	51	40
2026-02-06	5.32	4.98	3.76	270430596	Upward Expansion	54	49
2026-01-30	5.68	4.95	9.42	317600215	Upward Expansion	66	59
2026-01-23	5.66	4.90	8.65	296292519	Deceleration	67	45
2026-01-16	5.13	4.84	-0.66	478973104	Deceleration	34	21
2026-01-09	5.38	4.80	3.74	297169921	Deceleration	57	28
2026-01-02	5.13	4.75	2.61	183789011	Deceleration	26	20
2025-12-26	5.05	4.71	1.11	166324624	Deceleration	25	23
2025-12-19	5.01	4.68	2.23	299469172	Deceleration	30	22
2025-12-12	4.69	4.64	-4.28	394576036	Upward Expansion	23	16
2025-12-05	5.13	4.62	4.26	162794559	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-11-28	5.37	4.59	9.77	162241655	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-11-21	5.37	4.55	11.67	144737282	Upward Expansion	66	63
2025-11-14	5.45	4.50	9.26	140283212	Upward Expansion	75	62
2025-11-07	5.43	4.45	8.99	202857116	Upward Expansion	79	61
2025-10-31	5.12	4.40	4.10	156498089	Upward Expansion	65	57
2025-10-24	5.06	4.38	3.10	137872812	Upward Expansion	64	67
2025-10-17	5.04	4.36	5.73	234129169	Upward Expansion	66	74
2025-10-10	5.25	4.34	8.40	131448318	Upward Expansion	83	87
2025-10-03	5.12	4.31	6.20	97858271	Upward Expansion	83	86
2025-09-26	4.95	4.29	4.17	167049905	Upward Expansion	79	79
2025-09-19	4.73	4.27	-0.50	152759190	Upward Expansion	67	74
2025-09-12	4.88	4.25	1.24	226972455	Upward Expansion	84	81
2025-09-05	4.58	4.22	-3.80	178914507	Upward Expansion	68	50
2025-08-29	4.55	4.21	-5.80	257534692	Rotation Up	70	46
2025-08-22	4.54	4.21	-5.46	290240001	Rotation Up	46	34
2025-08-15	4.20	4.19	-9.78	138944481	Rotation Up	20	27
2025-08-08	4.36	4.19	-5.02	128349632	Rotation Up	26	57
2025-08-01	4.29	4.18	-4.80	220185201	Rotation Up	25	57
2025-07-25	4.51	4.18	-1.19	201428213	Rotation Up	44	54
2025-07-18	4.37	4.18	-2.94	155803919	Downward Expansion	33	36
2025-07-11	4.32	4.17	-3.65	199706257	Downward Expansion	-5	11
2025-07-04	4.20	4.17	-5.82	301198823	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-06-27	3.90	4.17	-11.68	137019427	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2025-06-20	3.89	4.17	-10.73	123891792	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2025-06-13	3.92	4.17	-10.98	162202687	Balance	-65	52
2025-06-06	3.97	4.17	-10.58	129094889	Balance	-33	26
2025-05-30	4.06	4.17	-8.09	107014790	Balance	-15	14
2025-05-23	4.08	4.17	-7.88	116774770	Balance	-22	17
2025-05-16	4.06	4.17	-9.13	130663526	Rotation Down	-25	23
2025-05-09	4.13	4.18	-7.27	150403659	Rotation Down	-17	37
2025-05-02	4.03	4.18	-8.11	104841672	Balance	-20	33
2025-04-25	4.05	4.20	-8.52	155004607	Balance	-19	28
2025-04-18	3.96	4.21	-10.47	164106443	Balance	-25	24
2025-04-11	3.93	4.20	-10.46	232995779	Upward Expansion	6	7
2025-04-04	4.39	4.19	-3.45	110677964	Upward Expansion	53	38
2025-03-28	4.42	4.18	-2.99	233305006	Upward Expansion	54	54
2025-03-21	4.41	4.16	-3.82	227238784	Upward Expansion	54	60
2025-03-14	4.49	4.14	-3.52	194251169	Upward Expansion	62	57
2025-03-07	4.46	4.12	-2.76	270392866	Balance	62	40
2025-02-28	4.48	4.10	-0.82	260112520	Balance	64	29
2025-02-21	4.05	4.09	-11.70	117571266	Balance	18	8
2025-02-14	4.10	4.09	-9.82	134160640	Balance	28	15
2025-02-07	4.26	4.10	-5.12	121894827	Balance	41	21
2025-01-31	4.33	4.11	-1.70	46872920	Balance	50	23
2025-01-24	4.13	4.12	-6.13	150237306	Balance	8	7
2025-01-17	4.13	4.13	-5.36	182714677	Rotation Up	23	29
2025-01-10	4.18	4.15	-1.85	188772733	Rotation Up	28	43
2025-01-03	4.28	4.16	-0.53	153459827	Balance	28	36
2024-12-27	4.32	4.17	-4.88	139442564	Balance	30	26
2024-12-20	4.27	4.18	-4.78	224388913	Balance	-5	8
2024-12-13	4.20	4.19	-6.86	270654475	Balance	-23	13
2024-12-06	4.15	4.20	-8.08	185974249	Balance	-43	32
2024-11-29	3.88	4.22	-11.88	125022176	Balance	-48	45
2024-11-22	3.83	4.25	-11.45	185939723	Balance	-52	35
2024-11-15	3.93	4.28	-10.66	174632290	Balance	-45	27
2024-11-08	4.13	4.30	-9.14	235001215	Balance	-27	14
2024-11-01	4.09	4.31	-5.05	289707746	Balance	-15	11
2024-10-25	4.08	4.31	-5.83	177267366	Balance	-11	21
2024-10-18	4.29	4.31	0.54	170611769	Balance	-5	25
2024-10-11	4.27	4.30	1.88	309203379	Downward Expansion	-18	24
2024-10-04	4.53	4.29	4.51	97550017	Downward Expansion	-10	15
2024-09-27	4.30	4.27	7.87	159878516	Downward Expansion	-39	34
2024-09-20	3.74	4.25	6.43	60654547	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2024-09-13	3.67	4.25	6.18	103756953	Rotation Down	-80	83
2024-09-06	3.84	4.24	9.24	106410925	Rotation Down	-43	70
2024-08-30	3.85	4.22	7.13	106030605	Rotation Down	-46	72
2024-08-23	3.86	4.20	7.50	132880769	Rotation Down	-48	71
2024-08-16	3.88	4.17	7.69	122128322	Rotation Down	-42	67
2024-08-09	4.04	4.15	13.59	144506189	Deceleration	-31	51
2024-08-02	4.08	4.13	13.68	111588248	Deceleration	-12	27
2024-07-26	4.08	4.10	15.09	181594806	Deceleration	-9	15
2024-07-19	4.34	4.07	19.69	139896835	Deceleration	22	15
2024-07-12	4.55	4.03	26.75	192388548	Deceleration	39	26
2024-07-05	4.63	3.99	31.26	111065262	Deceleration	47	31
2024-06-28	4.54	3.95	29.29	138865392	Deceleration	43	33
2024-06-21	4.49	3.90	27.97	148389388	Upward Expansion	46	39
2024-06-14	4.59	3.86	30.56	146773035	Upward Expansion	49	43
2024-06-07	4.65	3.82	32.60	159031230	Upward Expansion	54	47
2024-05-31	4.68	3.77	33.47	204091724	Upward Expansion	67	55
2024-05-24	4.46	3.72	28.52	204839177	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-05-17	4.61	3.68	31.20	208296804	Upward Expansion	67	70
2024-05-10	4.74	3.63	36.18	218530933	Upward Expansion	74	84
2024-05-03	4.72	3.58	39.36	92336501	Upward Expansion	78	88
2024-04-26	4.62	3.53	38.70	217879276	Upward Expansion	78	87
2024-04-19	4.70	3.49	43.54	223354802	Upward Expansion	90	89
2024-04-12	4.35	3.44	36.14	170682758	Upward Expansion	82	81
2024-04-05	4.23	3.40	31.60	96632675	Upward Expansion	81	81
2024-03-29	4.09	3.36	29.22	156351078	Upward Expansion	78	86
2024-03-22	3.91	3.33	24.33	175666479	Upward Expansion	71	84
2024-03-15	3.94	3.30	25.59	267919402	Upward Expansion	75	85
2024-03-08	4.00	3.28	28.64	227350487	Upward Expansion	87	88
2024-03-01	3.68	3.25	19.76	213621139	Upward Expansion	74	75
2024-02-23	3.60	3.23	18.62	268661081	Balance	71	63
2024-02-09	3.55	3.21	23.45	331969537	Balance	66	32
2024-02-02	3.16	3.19	16.14	248555260	Balance	-13	15
2024-01-26	3.25	3.18	12.61	217906235	Balance	18	10
2024-01-19	3.09	3.17	10.76	309919421	Balance	-7	10
2024-01-12	3.19	3.17	13.15	292821114	Balance	25	12
2024-01-05	3.35	3.16	17.43	313423730	Upward Expansion	65	30
2023-12-29	3.21	3.15	11.50	175357412	Upward Expansion	36	20
2023-12-22	3.21	3.14	14.35	270193175	Upward Expansion	49	29
2023-12-15	3.21	3.13	13.86	299771488	Upward Expansion	53	35
2023-12-08	3.35	3.12	18.31	221879484	Upward Expansion	73	53
2023-12-01	3.25	3.10	13.19	120787664	Upward Expansion	55	33
2023-11-24	3.26	3.10	13.65	120381160	Upward Expansion	58	36
2023-11-17	3.22	3.09	12.14	158719124	Upward Expansion	51	35
2023-11-10	3.21	3.09	12.95	178158105	Upward Expansion	52	34
2023-11-03	3.26	3.08	15.60	145808720	Upward Expansion	60	39
2023-10-27	3.27	3.08	16.92	168624686	Upward Expansion	63	37
2023-10-20	3.18	3.07	15.49	155696940	Upward Expansion	53	33
2023-10-13	3.20	3.07	13.27	127600999	Upward Expansion	58	41
2023-09-29	3.21	3.07	13.47	89467830	Upward Expansion	61	46
2023-09-22	3.23	3.07	13.96	167068629	Upward Expansion	66	58

Price vs TrendBelow-7.6%

Trend directionFalling-5.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+3.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-7.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.9%

Price momentumNegative-14.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.80×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-56 / ±100

+1.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

43 /100

-17.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

600282 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance24

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion6

Deceleration51

Rotation Down50

Downward Expansion74

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 41%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 17%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-10-02	Established	-8.5%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-05-29	Developing	-6.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-04-24	Developing	-9.9%
Deceleration	2025-12-19	2026-01-23	Developing	+13.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-12-12	Established	+2.4%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-29	Developing	+0.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-07-18	Developing	+12.2%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-13	New	-4.0%
Rotation Down	2025-05-09	2025-05-16	New	-1.6%
Balance	2025-04-18	2025-05-02	New	+1.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-04-11	Developing	-12.5%
Balance	2025-01-24	2025-03-07	Developing	+8.1%
Rotation Up	2025-01-10	2025-01-17	New	-1.1%
Balance	2024-10-18	2025-01-03	Developing	-0.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing46

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution32

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 80/100
Current Relative Strength: -7.10
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -14.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -13.6%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 47th percentile159 in cohort

Test 600282 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.27×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.80×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 600282 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 4.51falling

Slow Activity CNY 4.74falling

Trend Reference CNY 4.91-7.6% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 4.39+3.5% close margin

Structural low CNY 4.33shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.8%

Annualized volatility +26.1%

From structural high -23.0%

From structural low +4.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+0.7%-7.7% to +14.7%	+53.3%	+46.7%	+0.1%	+73.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+6.8%-9.1% to +21.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+2.2%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+8.2%-2.8% to +28.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+8.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+12.7%-0.9% to +26.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

600282 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map