Weekly structural research · SHH · Basic Materials

688303 Stage Analysis

Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 15.99Tenure ExtendedBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -70−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 81/100directional strength

Maturity 83/100lifecycle context

Confidence 92/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -34.3%CNY 24.34 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	15.99	19.23	-26.47	23633241	Downward Expansion	-70	81
2026-09-25	15.83	19.46	-28.89	37327383	Downward Expansion	-77	85
2026-09-18	16.34	19.73	-27.93	25512074	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2026-09-11	16.27	19.97	-28.67	34490919	Downward Expansion	-74	66
2026-09-04	16.76	20.23	-28.45	51469285	Downward Expansion	-68	43
2026-08-28	17.45	20.48	-26.88	5122276	Downward Expansion	-43	25
2026-08-21	18.02	20.79	-24.20	9685215	Downward Expansion	-37	25
2026-08-14	18.53	21.04	-23.08	8564676	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2026-08-07	18.97	21.31	-22.12	23451634	Downward Expansion	-49	40
2026-07-31	18.13	21.57	-24.10	14294436	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2026-07-24	16.72	21.91	-30.23	9132547	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2026-07-17	15.80	22.26	-33.79	11250854	Downward Expansion	-79	89
2026-07-10	16.52	22.65	-35.38	14221572	Downward Expansion	-78	84
2026-07-03	17.16	23.02	-34.24	12469590	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2026-06-26	17.46	23.40	-33.13	16447552	Downward Expansion	-79	60
2026-06-19	19.20	23.73	-27.85	119245968	Downward Expansion	-70	52
2026-06-12	20.95	24.12	-20.34	45738461	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2026-06-05	20.41	24.49	-22.46	53662008	Downward Expansion	-60	54
2026-05-29	19.47	24.81	-26.92	92761182	Downward Expansion	-72	55
2026-05-22	20.65	25.06	-23.55	81461716	Downward Expansion	-64	41
2026-05-15	21.19	25.31	-22.21	102375702	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2026-05-08	22.69	25.53	-17.70	66755511	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2026-05-01	22.25	25.73	-17.97	68404672	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2026-04-24	22.90	25.95	-14.93	122475949	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2026-04-17	22.24	26.17	-16.80	95627199	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2026-04-10	20.80	26.45	-20.97	38007940	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2026-04-03	20.26	26.90	-21.02	58324190	Downward Expansion	-81	74
2026-03-27	21.85	27.30	-15.73	64854217	Downward Expansion	-72	59
2026-03-20	22.32	27.46	-14.99	60032590	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2026-03-13	23.80	27.58	-12.56	75193909	Downward Expansion	-63	65
2026-03-06	23.01	27.67	-16.16	57526671	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2026-02-27	23.90	27.78	-13.94	40674776	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2026-02-13	23.51	27.86	-13.79	49760875	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2026-02-06	24.00	27.94	-11.81	98712922	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2026-01-30	24.25	27.99	-12.29	96558960	Downward Expansion	-68	58
2026-01-23	26.83	27.99	-3.58	96224172	Deceleration	-26	33
2026-01-16	25.46	27.76	-7.76	96888830	Deceleration	-36	33
2026-01-09	26.61	27.53	-4.29	84740553	Deceleration	-28	22
2026-01-02	26.82	27.27	0.05	26823274	Deceleration	1	12
2025-12-26	28.23	27.04	5.28	50165951	Deceleration	7	11
2025-12-19	27.29	26.74	3.64	41910094	Deceleration	5	12
2025-12-12	27.60	26.47	4.79	76896734	Deceleration	9	13
2025-12-05	27.43	26.23	3.62	48850808	Deceleration	14	9
2025-11-28	28.67	25.94	8.47	55570820	Deceleration	36	22
2025-11-21	27.35	25.58	4.54	83164245	Deceleration	44	28
2025-11-14	30.90	25.27	13.19	157759909	Deceleration	55	35
2025-11-07	32.00	24.85	16.90	132058747	Deceleration	63	35
2025-10-31	29.95	24.40	10.38	130083222	Deceleration	41	20
2025-10-24	26.89	24.04	-1.33	60858806	Deceleration	31	20
2025-10-17	28.39	23.80	5.75	109047205	Deceleration	35	20
2025-10-10	27.64	23.54	1.28	41163361	Deceleration	39	24
2025-10-03	28.73	23.33	5.40	38487529	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-09-26	28.98	23.07	7.70	102078584	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-09-19	29.51	22.82	10.00	107274005	Upward Expansion	62	58
2025-09-12	30.50	22.54	12.42	147788807	Upward Expansion	64	65
2025-09-05	34.39	22.24	28.95	198607061	Upward Expansion	88	79
2025-08-29	32.19	21.86	20.14	212496303	Upward Expansion	89	66
2025-08-22	26.66	21.50	0.89	95497404	Upward Expansion	67	54
2025-08-15	25.97	21.33	1.80	90398332	Upward Expansion	65	59
2025-08-08	26.30	21.24	4.87	71314346	Upward Expansion	68	76
2025-08-01	26.56	21.08	8.18	114025997	Upward Expansion	73	84
2025-07-25	26.30	20.98	6.34	144476290	Rotation Up	75	86
2025-07-18	25.86	20.93	6.50	102053701	Rotation Up	53	75
2025-07-11	25.41	20.87	5.67	147368113	Rotation Up	46	62
2025-07-04	24.35	20.89	2.58	140775605	Rotation Up	39	30
2025-06-27	19.93	20.96	-14.73	47644782	Downward Expansion	-33	19
2025-06-20	18.43	21.26	-19.88	33257271	Downward Expansion	-59	34
2025-06-13	18.99	21.53	-18.39	28408501	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2025-06-06	19.65	21.79	-16.39	25536698	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2025-05-30	19.25	22.14	-17.69	21517056	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-05-23	19.35	22.54	-17.91	33169205	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2025-05-16	20.31	23.18	-14.86	87535455	Downward Expansion	-50	42
2025-05-09	18.73	23.37	-21.22	22650884	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2025-05-02	17.78	23.60	-24.25	11837407	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2025-04-25	18.16	23.88	-23.48	23486716	Downward Expansion	-74	87
2025-04-18	18.44	24.02	-22.35	32217478	Downward Expansion	-74	83
2025-04-11	18.55	24.05	-21.45	61668996	Downward Expansion	-76	78
2025-04-04	18.85	24.07	-23.18	30347517	Downward Expansion	-78	73
2025-03-28	19.97	24.03	-19.45	30005264	Downward Expansion	-71	63
2025-03-21	20.61	23.97	-17.79	35856414	Downward Expansion	-66	53
2025-03-14	21.19	23.91	-17.43	38411532	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2025-03-07	21.04	23.87	-17.55	46535277	Downward Expansion	-37	47
2025-02-28	21.38	23.85	-15.64	57479829	Downward Expansion	-35	34
2025-02-21	21.14	23.79	-18.65	44023205	Rotation Down	-38	45
2025-02-14	21.55	23.73	-16.93	43528284	Rotation Down	-36	47
2025-02-07	23.00	23.64	-10.89	33899056	Rotation Down	-22	40
2025-01-31	21.36	23.51	-16.37	5871418	Rotation Down	-30	54
2025-01-24	21.36	23.44	-17.01	55316504	Rotation Down	-30	49
2025-01-17	23.29	23.41	-10.03	52352446	Deceleration	-17	29
2025-01-10	21.60	23.41	-15.25	28832198	Deceleration	-27	27
2025-01-03	23.45	23.53	-9.84	34944796	Deceleration	2	13
2024-12-27	24.85	23.57	-10.29	59008841	Deceleration	21	17
2024-12-20	24.23	23.62	-12.15	29891348	Deceleration	24	17
2024-12-13	25.95	23.64	-7.09	39117984	Deceleration	32	20
2024-12-06	26.53	23.58	-5.85	46675061	Deceleration	36	22
2024-11-29	28.80	23.52	4.08	47182598	Upward Expansion	42	27
2024-11-22	26.50	23.37	-2.89	58285890	Upward Expansion	56	38
2024-11-15	26.97	23.29	-3.67	82182788	Upward Expansion	64	56
2024-11-08	30.04	23.21	2.75	93518992	Upward Expansion	67	79
2024-11-01	31.18	23.04	11.84	166282325	Rotation Up	70	85
2024-10-25	38.44	22.87	36.04	146924357	Rotation Up	70	88
2024-10-18	26.03	22.47	-6.80	51639745	Rotation Up	38	54
2024-10-11	25.65	22.52	-7.88	76766269	Rotation Up	40	47
2024-10-04	26.20	22.62	-10.22	21793000	Rotation Up	24	34
2024-09-27	22.41	22.72	-17.87	34229920	Downward Expansion	-21	16
2024-09-20	19.24	22.93	-21.38	15885934	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2024-09-13	19.33	23.23	-21.00	34092839	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2024-09-06	17.75	23.51	-29.94	18501927	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2024-08-30	18.11	23.77	-31.38	35373095	Downward Expansion	-71	53
2024-08-23	18.87	24.08	-29.70	13048250	Downward Expansion	-58	48
2024-08-16	19.99	24.42	-27.03	22446504	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2024-08-09	20.35	24.74	-26.01	35405173	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2024-08-02	19.46	25.01	-31.00	22671778	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2024-07-26	19.41	25.33	-31.63	22217257	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2024-07-19	18.80	25.61	-36.49	31214482	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2024-07-12	19.22	25.92	-35.57	20903798	Downward Expansion	-81	91
2024-07-05	19.15	26.26	-36.07	15413804	Downward Expansion	-88	88
2024-06-28	20.39	26.62	-33.08	31389668	Downward Expansion	-84	68
2024-06-21	23.37	27.00	-24.90	24387502	Downward Expansion	-67	36
2024-06-14	25.24	27.32	-20.67	16974503	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2024-06-07	24.68	27.64	-23.56	36094179	Downward Expansion	-46	30
2024-05-31	26.36	27.96	-19.87	40450955	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2024-05-24	24.92	28.27	-24.74	35020509	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2024-05-17	23.88	28.59	-29.85	18358733	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2024-05-10	24.97	29.11	-27.16	23241324	Downward Expansion	-65	72
2024-05-03	24.06	29.60	-29.22	13603012	Downward Expansion	-72	80
2024-04-26	24.22	30.11	-29.16	22211425	Downward Expansion	-74	78
2024-04-19	24.49	30.62	-28.53	19558468	Downward Expansion	-76	78
2024-04-12	25.00	31.11	-26.59	16850887	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2024-04-05	26.12	31.63	-25.21	12607414	Downward Expansion	-68	48
2024-03-29	26.58	32.08	-23.85	12984896	Downward Expansion	-64	39
2024-03-22	27.25	32.50	-22.76	18601029	Downward Expansion	-48	28
2024-03-15	28.75	32.91	-19.30	23272642	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2024-03-08	29.28	33.25	-18.08	28331270	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2024-03-01	28.69	33.61	-19.73	29443783	Downward Expansion	-58	48
2024-02-23	28.33	33.98	-20.66	24426390	Downward Expansion	-60	56
2024-02-09	27.71	34.36	-19.15	35459371	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-02-02	25.31	34.73	-22.97	30735005	Downward Expansion	-84	69
2024-01-26	27.51	35.21	-22.09	47731708	Downward Expansion	-76	65
2024-01-19	29.26	35.62	-15.40	26111971	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2024-01-12	29.40	36.03	-16.97	28666538	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2024-01-05	28.41	36.51	-21.55	18566065	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2023-12-29	29.11	36.97	-21.40	30922552	Downward Expansion	-68	83
2023-12-22	27.79	37.28	-24.02	24705170	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2023-12-15	28.07	37.65	-24.71	29151616	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2023-12-08	29.44	38.00	-22.47	35954128	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2023-12-01	30.00	38.29	-23.25	27322832	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2023-11-24	31.74	38.65	-19.76	23634389	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2023-11-17	33.17	39.14	-17.21	30364702	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2023-11-10	34.61	39.52	-13.87	29635345	Downward Expansion	-74	89
2023-11-03	34.49	39.83	-14.51	16268612	Downward Expansion	-83	88
2023-10-27	35.47	40.16	-12.16	16921053	Downward Expansion	-81	81
2023-10-20	34.71	40.47	-13.51	27075982	Downward Expansion	-88	73
2023-10-13	39.20	40.80	-6.05	12299352	Downward Expansion	-51	26
2023-09-29	39.81	40.95	-5.62	10846987	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2023-09-22	39.46	41.08	-7.38	12234653	Downward Expansion	-38	19

Price vs TrendBelow-16.9%

Trend directionFalling-12.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-34.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+0.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-26.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+7.8%

Price momentumNegative-21.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.56×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ±100

-1.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

81 /100

+37.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

688303 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance5

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration37

Rotation Down76

Downward Expansion97

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 9%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 67%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-10-02	Extended	-34.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2026-01-23	Established	-2.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-10-03	Developing	+8.2%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-07-25	New	+8.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-06-27	Established	-6.8%
Rotation Down	2025-01-24	2025-02-21	Developing	-1.0%
Deceleration	2024-12-06	2025-01-17	Developing	-12.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-08	2024-11-29	New	-4.1%
Rotation Up	2024-10-04	2024-11-01	Developing	+19.0%
Downward Expansion	2023-05-05	2024-09-27	Extended	-41.5%
Balance	2023-04-21	2023-04-28	New	-11.9%
Downward Expansion	2023-02-17	2023-04-14	Developing	+4.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing68

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution2

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -26.47
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -21.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -20.1%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 96th percentile159 in cohort

Test 688303 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.69×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.56×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 688303 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 16.11falling

Slow Activity CNY 18.03falling

Trend Reference CNY 19.23-16.9% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 24.34-34.3% close margin

Structural low CNY 15.49shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.6%

Annualized volatility +33.2%

From structural high -52.7%

From structural low +3.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	34	-4.5%-19.6% to +40.3%	+35.3%	+64.7%	-3.1%	+94.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-9.1%-31.3% to +67.2%	+27.3%	+72.7%	-10.1%	+81.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-15.1%-36.9% to +50.6%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-11.5%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-25.5%-33.1% to +7.6%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-27.0%	+100.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

688303 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map