Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

B7E Stage Analysis

Blue Cap AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 15.45Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -74−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 53/100directional strength

Maturity 34/100lifecycle context

Confidence 89/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -8.7%EUR 16.92 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	15.45	17.03	-15.08	5767	Downward Expansion	-74	53
2026-09-25	16.05	17.11	-12.99	3557	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2026-09-18	15.90	17.17	-13.99	6855	Downward Expansion	-68	47
2026-09-11	16.20	17.24	-13.71	12705	Downward Expansion	-63	47
2026-09-04	16.35	17.30	-14.99	6084	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-08-28	16.40	17.36	-16.93	288	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2026-08-21	15.95	17.43	-18.33	4399	Downward Expansion	-81	84
2026-08-14	16.30	17.51	-17.88	451	Downward Expansion	-71	81
2026-08-07	16.40	17.61	-17.28	947	Downward Expansion	-70	79
2026-07-31	16.55	17.63	-14.49	4	Downward Expansion	-65	74
2026-07-24	16.50	17.66	-13.21	16	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2026-07-17	16.00	17.69	-15.04	2046	Balance	-77	60
2026-07-10	17.40	17.77	-8.64	4	Balance	-41	18
2026-07-03	17.65	17.79	-9.93	973	Balance	-32	13
2026-06-26	17.90	17.82	-4.65	9	Balance	-23	11
2026-06-19	17.62	17.85	-7.28	300	Balance	-31	15
2026-06-12	17.57	17.89	-6.26	1066	Balance	-21	8
2026-06-05	17.66	17.97	-6.25	700	Balance	-14	14
2026-05-29	17.71	18.04	-7.22	5832	Balance	-23	17
2026-05-22	17.89	18.11	-5.42	7441	Balance	-23	14
2026-05-15	18.49	18.17	1.65	7567	Downward Expansion	-16	12
2026-05-08	17.62	18.22	-4.50	5710	Downward Expansion	-51	38
2026-05-01	17.16	18.32	-6.64	9192	Downward Expansion	-56	36
2026-04-24	16.61	18.45	-8.97	8291	Downward Expansion	-72	41
2026-04-17	17.85	18.58	-4.50	4300	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2026-04-10	17.95	18.64	-0.43	12602	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2026-04-03	17.50	18.71	-0.30	48	Downward Expansion	-55	41
2026-03-27	17.40	18.81	2.87	2966	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2026-03-20	17.70	18.89	4.30	9333	Downward Expansion	-56	50
2026-03-13	17.30	18.95	-2.52	1936	Downward Expansion	-66	54
2026-03-06	17.60	18.98	-1.36	6225	Downward Expansion	-61	45
2026-02-27	17.90	18.97	-6.37	2397	Balance	-56	37
2026-02-20	18.00	18.97	-5.84	4300	Balance	-39	20
2026-02-13	18.10	18.95	-4.15	3530	Balance	-36	18
2026-02-06	18.00	18.92	-4.09	10591	Rotation Down	-36	22
2026-01-30	18.70	18.90	0.28	9349	Rotation Down	-35	18
2026-01-23	18.30	18.85	-3.18	5122	Rotation Down	-15	17
2026-01-16	19.20	18.80	0.02	12749	Rotation Down	-24	26
2026-01-09	17.20	18.73	-10.16	9599	Rotation Down	-44	61
2026-01-02	17.30	18.72	-7.07	7417	Rotation Down	-45	59
2025-12-26	17.50	18.69	-5.35	2090	Rotation Down	-36	54
2025-12-19	18.20	18.66	-1.41	9590	Deceleration	-25	35
2025-12-12	18.20	18.60	-0.98	3967	Deceleration	-26	28
2025-12-05	18.40	18.54	0.79	1842	Deceleration	-4	15
2025-11-28	18.80	18.44	3.90	11103	Deceleration	5	10
2025-11-21	19.00	18.33	8.45	6110	Deceleration	24	17
2025-11-14	19.80	18.23	9.39	3032	Deceleration	36	20
2025-11-07	19.80	18.11	10.88	2472	Deceleration	39	23
2025-10-31	19.80	17.97	9.14	13793	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-10-24	19.70	17.86	7.33	1341	Upward Expansion	49	42
2025-10-17	19.90	17.78	10.27	4889	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-10-10	20.60	17.66	12.23	4754	Upward Expansion	66	59
2025-10-03	21.20	17.52	14.89	19996	Upward Expansion	82	70
2025-09-26	20.60	17.38	14.76	29779	Upward Expansion	78	68
2025-09-19	19.40	17.25	8.70	6636	Upward Expansion	68	86
2025-09-12	20.20	17.18	12.90	4502	Upward Expansion	76	91
2025-09-05	20.40	17.10	14.53	8060	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-08-29	20.00	16.98	10.79	20090	Upward Expansion	90	94
2025-08-22	19.30	16.83	4.81	8590	Upward Expansion	88	85
2025-08-15	18.30	16.70	-0.75	7756	Upward Expansion	78	65
2025-08-08	17.40	16.58	-5.15	3244	Upward Expansion	59	44
2025-08-01	17.90	16.49	0.18	6987	Upward Expansion	75	63
2025-07-25	17.20	16.39	-7.32	1985	Upward Expansion	60	57
2025-07-18	17.30	16.32	-7.41	4418	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-07-11	17.30	16.23	-7.91	3335	Upward Expansion	68	65
2025-07-04	17.30	16.16	-6.70	5423	Upward Expansion	69	63
2025-06-27	16.80	16.08	-10.89	10797	Upward Expansion	55	54
2025-06-20	16.99	16.02	-7.94	1882	Deceleration	63	55
2025-06-13	16.89	15.96	-9.75	880	Deceleration	50	40
2025-06-06	16.52	15.92	-15.24	3896	Deceleration	38	27
2025-05-30	16.71	15.89	-13.73	13679	Deceleration	39	20
2025-05-23	16.24	15.86	-15.30	2008	Deceleration	9	10
2025-05-16	16.42	15.85	-15.25	2623	Deceleration	11	15
2025-05-09	15.30	15.85	-20.61	3454	Deceleration	-29	30
2025-05-02	15.67	15.88	-17.66	2095	Deceleration	0	15
2025-04-25	16.05	15.89	-12.98	4444	Deceleration	21	18
2025-04-18	16.05	15.87	-9.12	1733	Deceleration	28	15
2025-04-11	15.67	15.85	-8.05	8961	Deceleration	23	13
2025-04-04	16.52	15.86	-4.69	5469	Deceleration	40	25
2025-03-28	17.27	15.85	-8.64	6917	Deceleration	57	36
2025-03-21	16.42	15.82	-15.00	5078	Upward Expansion	44	30
2025-03-14	16.33	15.80	-16.14	3291	Upward Expansion	59	45
2025-03-07	16.89	15.78	-13.73	1649	Upward Expansion	65	78
2025-02-28	16.71	15.76	-13.25	3229	Rotation Up	65	81
2025-02-21	17.27	15.76	-9.57	3977	Rotation Up	49	75
2025-02-14	17.74	15.71	-8.30	8956	Rotation Up	51	63
2025-02-07	16.80	15.72	-10.51	17594	Rotation Up	39	34
2025-01-31	15.58	15.76	-17.13	2473	Downward Expansion	-27	17
2025-01-24	15.39	15.85	-17.16	2586	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2025-01-17	14.83	15.95	-18.66	5061	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-01-10	14.55	16.08	-17.92	3214	Downward Expansion	-73	54
2025-01-03	15.11	16.20	-13.81	3745	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2024-12-27	14.83	16.28	-16.12	756	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2024-12-20	14.74	16.36	-16.63	3611	Downward Expansion	-74	69
2024-12-13	15.20	16.43	-16.55	2913	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2024-12-06	14.92	16.50	-18.38	1320	Downward Expansion	-76	79
2024-11-29	15.02	16.56	-15.08	5143	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2024-11-22	15.30	16.61	-12.49	1755	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2024-11-15	15.49	16.65	-11.24	3864	Downward Expansion	-69	58
2024-11-08	15.77	16.70	-9.96	1159	Downward Expansion	-50	33
2024-11-01	15.86	16.73	-9.98	1235	Downward Expansion	-44	25
2024-10-25	15.86	16.74	-11.31	2004	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2024-10-18	16.33	16.77	-9.99	1071	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2024-10-11	16.24	16.76	-9.53	5772	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2024-10-04	15.86	16.76	-10.84	2245	Downward Expansion	-59	58
2024-09-27	15.67	16.76	-13.86	2118	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2024-09-20	15.39	16.76	-12.47	676	Rotation Down	-73	52
2024-09-13	15.77	16.77	-10.66	1321	Rotation Down	-42	40
2024-09-06	16.24	16.77	-6.44	935	Rotation Down	-33	42
2024-08-30	16.42	16.77	-8.87	4097	Rotation Down	-26	51
2024-08-23	15.77	16.72	-11.72	1396	Rotation Down	-34	59
2024-08-16	15.96	16.71	-9.79	788	Deceleration	-33	42
2024-08-09	16.05	16.70	-6.89	4130	Deceleration	-32	36
2024-08-02	16.80	16.68	-2.79	5315	Rotation Down	13	21
2024-07-26	15.86	16.65	-12.45	9558	Rotation Down	6	13
2024-07-19	17.93	16.66	-0.29	92	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-07-12	18.21	16.59	-2.37	1006	Upward Expansion	64	73
2024-07-05	18.21	16.52	-1.53	1410	Upward Expansion	66	79
2024-06-28	18.21	16.44	-0.93	1397	Upward Expansion	65	78
2024-06-21	18.71	16.36	1.64	2451	Upward Expansion	82	82
2024-06-14	18.35	16.25	0.20	4060	Upward Expansion	77	64
2024-06-07	17.53	16.16	-7.43	4411	Upward Expansion	65	53
2024-05-31	17.08	16.09	-10.02	2354	Upward Expansion	55	42
2024-05-24	16.80	16.04	-12.84	1233	Upward Expansion	52	37
2024-05-17	17.44	15.98	-10.08	2803	Upward Expansion	69	41
2024-05-10	16.62	15.89	-15.04	1967	Upward Expansion	52	33
2024-05-03	16.62	15.87	-11.97	2778	Upward Expansion	54	39
2024-04-26	16.44	15.84	-14.20	2971	Upward Expansion	55	43
2024-04-19	16.99	15.84	-9.82	2245	Upward Expansion	68	62
2024-04-12	16.62	15.82	-13.20	1559	Upward Expansion	59	51
2024-04-05	16.35	15.84	-16.30	4487	Balance	54	50
2024-03-29	16.71	15.89	-16.55	2929	Balance	36	40
2024-03-22	15.90	15.94	-19.98	15041	Balance	16	14
2024-03-15	16.44	16.03	-16.71	12449	Balance	7	10
2024-03-08	15.71	16.13	-20.49	2365	Balance	-28	11
2024-03-01	15.81	16.25	-20.31	933	Balance	-28	15
2024-02-23	15.62	16.37	-20.31	5418	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2024-02-16	15.71	16.49	-18.96	6727	Downward Expansion	-47	28
2024-02-09	16.08	16.65	-16.69	3108	Downward Expansion	-36	28
2024-02-02	15.08	16.80	-22.36	3614	Downward Expansion	-72	58
2024-01-26	15.44	17.00	-21.28	3772	Downward Expansion	-52	38
2024-01-19	15.71	17.18	-18.55	3296	Deceleration	-39	27
2024-01-12	15.44	17.30	-21.26	2499	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2024-01-05	15.99	17.44	-18.53	874	Downward Expansion	-24	18
2023-12-29	16.08	17.56	-19.55	1177	Downward Expansion	-35	22
2023-12-22	15.90	17.67	-20.99	1106	Downward Expansion	-37	25
2023-12-15	15.99	17.77	-21.57	3433	Downward Expansion	-39	29
2023-12-08	15.81	17.89	-23.31	312	Downward Expansion	-42	35
2023-12-01	15.81	18.02	-22.35	1756	Downward Expansion	-46	40
2023-11-24	15.53	18.16	-22.65	440	Downward Expansion	-58	48
2023-11-17	15.44	18.31	-23.27	572	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2023-11-10	15.44	18.47	-20.56	1623	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2023-11-03	15.53	18.63	-20.52	2690	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2023-10-27	15.08	18.80	-20.84	19670	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2023-10-20	14.90	18.99	-22.82	3899	Downward Expansion	-84	84
2023-10-13	15.90	19.17	-20.25	2276	Downward Expansion	-74	87

Price vs TrendBelow-9.3%

Trend directionFalling-3.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-8.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-11.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-15.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.1%

Price momentumNegative-11.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.10×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-74 / ±100

-12.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

53 /100

+2.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

B7E Directional State ↗ B7E Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance12

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion7

Deceleration53

Rotation Down62

Downward Expansion80

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 39%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-10-02	Developing	-6.4%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-07-17	Developing	-10.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-05-15	Developing	+5.1%
Balance	2026-02-13	2026-02-27	New	-1.1%
Rotation Down	2025-12-26	2026-02-06	Developing	+2.9%
Deceleration	2025-11-07	2025-12-19	Developing	-8.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-27	2025-10-31	Established	+17.9%
Deceleration	2025-03-28	2025-06-20	Established	-1.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-03-21	New	-2.8%
Rotation Up	2025-02-07	2025-02-28	New	-0.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-27	2025-01-31	Established	-0.6%
Rotation Down	2024-08-23	2024-09-20	Developing	-2.4%
Deceleration	2024-08-09	2024-08-16	New	-0.6%
Rotation Down	2024-07-26	2024-08-02	New	+5.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing52

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution30

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: -15.08
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -11.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -20.6%
Financial Services regime cohort: 45th percentile20 in cohort

Test B7E trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.94×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.10×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore B7E Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 15.86falling

Slow Activity EUR 16.70falling

Trend Reference EUR 17.03-9.3% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 16.92-8.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 15.20shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.3%

Annualized volatility +21.3%

From structural high -34.0%

From structural low +1.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	29	-0.8%-12.6% to +24.3%	+41.4%	+58.6%	-2.4%	+79.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-0.2%-17.0% to +17.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.7%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+0.2%-21.6% to +10.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-15.2%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-8.8%-15.6% to +31.4%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-22.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

B7E Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map