Weekly structural research · NYSE · Basic Materials

CE Stage Analysis

Celanese Corporation

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 45.02Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -53−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 31/100directional strength

Maturity 55/100lifecycle context

Confidence 86/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -46.0%USD 83.30 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	45.02	51.78	-16.63	7392598	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2026-10-02	44.19	52.20	-17.28	8464877	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2026-09-25	47.09	52.37	-12.30	11020878	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2026-09-18	45.41	52.47	-14.38	11483039	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2026-09-11	46.09	52.75	-13.36	8165175	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2026-09-04	44.67	53.18	-16.89	7955962	Downward Expansion	-61	43
2026-08-28	45.00	53.52	-16.59	5532177	Downward Expansion	-62	45
2026-08-21	46.80	53.50	-13.22	5962256	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-08-14	45.66	53.52	-16.83	6693829	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2026-08-07	43.89	53.56	-20.10	16651168	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2026-07-31	44.72	53.61	-16.17	10100806	Rotation Down	-69	68
2026-07-24	46.40	53.53	-12.52	8648719	Rotation Down	-38	56
2026-07-17	45.67	53.41	-15.08	7217223	Rotation Down	-43	60
2026-07-10	46.89	53.29	-14.86	9171296	Rotation Down	-42	53
2026-07-03	47.65	53.18	-13.13	9632923	Rotation Down	-32	44
2026-06-26	49.39	52.94	-8.83	8773052	Rotation Down	-30	46
2026-06-19	51.16	52.68	-8.40	5119268	Deceleration	-23	36
2026-06-12	53.48	52.24	-3.91	7715232	Deceleration	1	22
2026-06-05	51.03	51.76	-8.26	8791426	Upward Expansion	-3	22
2026-05-29	53.13	51.43	-7.45	5729155	Upward Expansion	14	22
2026-05-22	52.39	50.94	-7.88	10281715	Upward Expansion	22	16
2026-05-15	56.80	50.60	0.21	9702959	Upward Expansion	43	29
2026-05-08	57.17	50.04	0.72	15323113	Upward Expansion	57	41
2026-05-01	69.24	49.44	24.42	7874927	Upward Expansion	74	56
2026-04-24	64.97	48.64	18.26	9947250	Upward Expansion	67	57
2026-04-17	62.00	47.83	13.78	13536399	Upward Expansion	64	66
2026-04-10	63.10	47.23	21.35	9518010	Upward Expansion	67	72
2026-04-03	64.03	46.65	28.23	13292555	Upward Expansion	74	73
2026-03-27	63.38	46.13	31.81	10218300	Upward Expansion	78	55
2026-03-20	56.92	45.61	15.62	13119658	Upward Expansion	66	43
2026-03-13	57.71	45.33	14.70	17075815	Upward Expansion	73	46
2026-03-06	49.30	44.82	-3.87	15743152	Upward Expansion	59	45
2026-02-27	49.92	44.77	-5.15	11356295	Upward Expansion	64	75
2026-02-20	54.05	44.72	1.85	15344819	Rotation Up	67	79
2026-02-13	58.79	44.87	11.73	13737032	Rotation Up	62	76
2026-02-06	54.82	44.82	2.19	13429639	Rotation Up	57	65
2026-01-30	44.39	45.02	-18.12	7995869	Rotation Up	18	36
2026-01-23	47.47	45.57	-13.27	8954666	Balance	27	38
2026-01-16	46.89	45.87	-15.72	12007190	Balance	7	17
2026-01-09	45.52	46.09	-19.52	11100230	Balance	-0	10
2026-01-02	42.12	46.39	-25.19	4952348	Balance	-18	14
2025-12-26	42.81	46.83	-25.64	4096481	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2025-12-19	42.25	47.16	-26.48	11096682	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2025-12-12	43.46	47.50	-25.21	11069774	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2025-12-05	40.59	47.83	-31.34	11158064	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-11-28	41.61	48.18	-30.27	7372672	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2025-11-21	37.89	48.32	-35.04	10367613	Downward Expansion	-68	59
2025-11-14	38.90	48.50	-35.55	12295302	Downward Expansion	-65	49
2025-11-07	41.26	48.54	-32.55	18647690	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2025-10-31	38.40	48.44	-39.28	11607974	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-10-24	42.14	48.52	-35.11	6407955	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2025-10-17	40.12	49.02	-38.99	6883572	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2025-10-10	39.22	49.58	-41.29	8234581	Downward Expansion	-73	67
2025-10-03	45.06	50.17	-36.29	8798906	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2025-09-26	40.71	50.51	-43.56	11686516	Downward Expansion	-71	53
2025-09-19	44.17	50.84	-40.84	9928608	Downward Expansion	-63	40
2025-09-12	45.52	51.12	-39.90	9241752	Downward Expansion	-33	28
2025-09-05	48.64	51.86	-36.37	8213268	Downward Expansion	-47	50
2025-08-29	47.55	52.50	-39.06	8665576	Rotation Down	-49	60
2025-08-22	48.54	53.28	-39.34	11075183	Rotation Down	-49	45
2025-08-15	42.41	54.12	-48.14	25821756	Balance	-66	49
2025-08-08	47.97	55.12	-42.23	9011151	Balance	-41	30
2025-08-01	48.46	55.68	-41.59	10643738	Rotation Up	-10	8
2025-07-25	58.57	56.26	-32.76	7660083	Rotation Up	22	42
2025-07-18	57.18	56.59	-34.85	8359125	Rotation Up	23	47
2025-07-11	60.89	56.95	-31.70	7462998	Rotation Up	35	54
2025-07-04	60.74	57.20	-33.45	7810828	Balance	17	36
2025-06-27	56.64	57.52	-38.04	8187151	Balance	2	14
2025-06-20	53.39	58.06	-40.76	5817868	Balance	-10	14
2025-06-13	54.51	58.76	-40.83	9080817	Balance	-9	15
2025-06-06	55.33	59.40	-41.35	6667495	Downward Expansion	-20	22
2025-05-30	52.71	60.37	-44.44	8079043	Downward Expansion	-29	26
2025-05-23	52.38	62.76	-45.11	7912756	Downward Expansion	-35	25
2025-05-16	53.40	65.27	-46.69	10339879	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-05-09	51.09	67.98	-47.53	21774732	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2025-05-02	45.85	70.78	-54.19	16226581	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2025-04-25	43.40	73.76	-56.44	11507559	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2025-04-18	39.97	76.92	-59.01	12080875	Downward Expansion	-75	70
2025-04-11	38.27	79.78	-62.23	25460613	Downward Expansion	-85	72
2025-04-04	40.87	82.57	-58.36	15691264	Downward Expansion	-88	70
2025-03-28	57.03	85.17	-48.34	14410506	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2025-03-21	56.93	87.59	-50.27	36038466	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2025-03-14	56.88	90.05	-51.05	12567041	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2025-03-07	55.16	92.42	-54.51	21005542	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2025-02-28	50.79	94.76	-60.15	28794706	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2025-02-21	52.57	97.41	-59.91	27909650	Downward Expansion	-92	87
2025-02-14	67.82	100.23	-50.01	10110460	Downward Expansion	-61	71
2025-02-07	67.81	102.53	-50.09	11640990	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2025-01-31	70.79	104.95	-48.78	12708689	Downward Expansion	-52	54
2025-01-24	73.75	106.93	-47.94	7434913	Downward Expansion	-55	59
2025-01-17	72.36	108.91	-48.78	9042125	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2025-01-10	64.78	111.00	-53.46	9911718	Downward Expansion	-74	70
2025-01-03	65.90	113.42	-54.29	6584361	Downward Expansion	-74	70
2024-12-27	68.52	116.04	-53.47	6721676	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2024-12-20	68.01	118.75	-54.26	18571882	Downward Expansion	-74	86
2024-12-13	68.34	121.51	-55.59	13176151	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2024-12-06	70.29	124.40	-55.29	16005040	Downward Expansion	-77	92
2024-11-29	72.95	127.21	-53.84	9553304	Downward Expansion	-82	94
2024-11-22	74.44	129.94	-52.97	19153512	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2024-11-15	73.52	132.54	-53.33	16723924	Downward Expansion	-94	97
2024-11-08	84.50	135.14	-48.07	24669472	Downward Expansion	-88	85
2024-11-01	124.37	137.43	-20.64	3598076	Balance	-46	24
2024-10-25	127.71	138.61	-19.96	2736239	Balance	-22	15
2024-10-18	134.75	139.97	-16.66	3089091	Balance	-8	20
2024-10-11	134.96	140.90	-16.04	3924683	Downward Expansion	-23	21
2024-10-04	135.44	141.63	-15.00	3744174	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2024-09-27	138.04	142.21	-13.37	5644908	Downward Expansion	-36	31
2024-09-20	125.76	142.63	-20.89	7103055	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2024-09-13	122.04	143.32	-22.48	5137896	Downward Expansion	-70	61
2024-09-06	118.96	144.20	-21.76	3889164	Downward Expansion	-81	66
2024-08-30	129.43	145.08	-18.70	3522347	Downward Expansion	-61	62
2024-08-23	130.79	145.55	-17.91	2938961	Downward Expansion	-62	67
2024-08-16	127.90	145.95	-18.77	4329855	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2024-08-09	125.37	146.42	-17.39	6344936	Downward Expansion	-78	57
2024-08-02	130.37	147.04	-14.32	4645839	Downward Expansion	-69	45
2024-07-26	137.14	147.58	-11.95	3387188	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2024-07-19	136.93	148.07	-12.93	3562442	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2024-07-12	140.26	148.57	-12.64	3883818	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2024-07-05	130.34	148.85	-18.10	2966212	Downward Expansion	-80	88
2024-06-28	133.01	149.11	-14.97	5393033	Rotation Down	-79	83
2024-06-21	135.09	149.27	-13.75	4869605	Rotation Down	-53	68
2024-06-14	137.45	149.09	-11.68	3130235	Deceleration	-41	51
2024-06-07	144.43	148.74	-5.67	2897861	Deceleration	-9	16
2024-05-31	149.92	147.79	-0.77	3067294	Deceleration	7	7
2024-05-24	150.74	146.73	-0.47	2637839	Deceleration	25	13
2024-05-17	155.15	145.40	2.67	3531787	Deceleration	32	16
2024-05-10	154.51	143.96	4.23	4114102	Deceleration	31	19
2024-05-03	154.98	142.68	6.91	2381723	Deceleration	33	23
2024-04-26	152.34	141.41	6.09	2616085	Upward Expansion	38	21
2024-04-19	151.61	140.39	8.74	2959705	Upward Expansion	47	38
2024-04-12	153.17	139.35	6.92	3690701	Upward Expansion	63	54
2024-04-05	159.63	138.39	10.09	4079943	Upward Expansion	67	81
2024-03-29	168.70	137.10	15.75	2441881	Upward Expansion	89	93
2024-03-22	162.37	135.65	12.30	4095847	Upward Expansion	85	86
2024-03-15	157.11	134.07	11.56	3589449	Upward Expansion	80	71
2024-03-08	152.63	132.64	8.71	2818721	Upward Expansion	71	53
2024-03-01	150.64	131.63	7.22	4077024	Upward Expansion	69	51
2024-02-23	146.64	130.62	5.35	5314335	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-02-16	148.29	129.81	8.31	3122707	Deceleration	57	44
2024-02-09	145.51	128.77	6.02	2917368	Deceleration	46	36
2024-02-02	143.60	127.78	6.12	3321310	Deceleration	44	37
2024-01-26	142.79	126.76	7.00	3178161	Upward Expansion	48	43
2024-01-19	141.81	125.73	7.39	2518047	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-01-12	144.00	124.52	10.34	3525036	Upward Expansion	66	76
2024-01-05	146.69	123.39	14.57	2901299	Upward Expansion	68	87
2023-12-29	151.81	122.16	16.91	2076254	Upward Expansion	80	92
2023-12-22	151.88	120.79	17.87	2832815	Upward Expansion	88	95
2023-12-15	148.52	119.19	16.83	5656602	Upward Expansion	89	93
2023-12-08	138.11	117.69	11.73	4729121	Upward Expansion	80	85
2023-12-01	137.81	116.33	12.13	5776451	Upward Expansion	82	80
2023-11-24	129.90	115.15	6.89	2442117	Balance	69	51
2023-11-17	126.96	114.24	5.77	4770654	Balance	52	25
2023-11-10	115.80	113.35	-1.06	4445290	Balance	9	14
2023-11-03	118.19	113.03	2.32	4631081	Upward Expansion	10	17
2023-10-27	110.90	112.49	1.88	3733878	Upward Expansion	-4	20
2023-10-20	111.89	112.27	0.45	3354160	Upward Expansion	2	11

Price vs TrendBelow-13.1%

Trend directionFalling-3.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-46.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-16.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.8%

Price momentumNegative-28.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.71×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-53 / ±100

-7.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

31 /100

-3.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CE Directional State ↗ CE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance34

Rotation Up26

Upward Expansion4

Deceleration59

Rotation Down42

Downward Expansion77

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 47%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-10-09	Developing	+2.6%
Rotation Down	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	-9.4%
Deceleration	2026-06-12	2026-06-19	New	-4.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-06-05	Established	+2.2%
Rotation Up	2026-01-30	2026-02-20	New	+21.8%
Balance	2026-01-02	2026-01-23	New	+12.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-12-26	Established	-12.0%
Rotation Down	2025-08-22	2025-08-29	New	-2.1%
Balance	2025-08-08	2025-08-15	New	-11.6%
Rotation Up	2025-07-11	2025-08-01	New	-20.4%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-07-04	New	+11.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-06-06	Extended	-34.5%
Balance	2024-10-18	2024-11-01	New	-7.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-05	2024-10-11	Established	+3.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing65

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution16

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 91/100
Current Relative Strength: -16.63
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -28.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -43.5%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 7th percentile46 in cohort

Test CE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.87×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.71×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 45.34falling

Slow Activity USD 48.14falling

Trend Reference USD 51.78-13.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 83.30-46.0% close margin

Structural low USD 41.11shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.8%

Annualized volatility +36.8%

From structural high -36.3%

From structural low +28.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	28	+1.9%-28.3% to +20.7%	+60.7%	+39.3%	+0.3%	+82.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+3.9%-51.3% to +48.6%	+55.6%	+44.4%	+0.3%	+55.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-7.8%-49.4% to +1.3%	+20.0%	+80.0%	-13.1%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-19.0%-53.4% to -8.2%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-28.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map