Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

MDWD Stage Analysis

Mediwound Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 12.54Tenure ExtendedBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -70−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 42/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -23.0%USD 16.28 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	12.54	14.85	-32.77	378295	Downward Expansion	-70	42
2026-10-02	13.52	14.98	-28.14	300241	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2026-09-25	13.84	15.10	-26.53	359967	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2026-09-18	13.40	15.21	-27.15	453658	Downward Expansion	-61	56
2026-09-11	13.11	15.36	-28.60	639262	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2026-09-04	13.29	15.50	-28.68	556995	Downward Expansion	-64	76
2026-08-28	12.66	15.65	-32.32	753232	Downward Expansion	-80	80
2026-08-21	13.21	15.83	-29.69	345259	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2026-08-14	13.56	15.98	-30.27	277802	Downward Expansion	-71	54
2026-08-07	14.39	16.07	-25.87	284962	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2026-07-31	14.12	16.22	-24.24	318021	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2026-07-24	14.23	16.36	-23.94	349604	Downward Expansion	-64	43
2026-07-17	14.61	16.51	-23.97	409176	Downward Expansion	-58	37
2026-07-10	14.29	16.65	-29.49	441134	Downward Expansion	-66	45
2026-07-03	15.16	16.81	-24.70	244847	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2026-06-26	15.19	16.89	-24.60	619134	Downward Expansion	-61	66
2026-06-19	14.24	16.98	-33.12	263862	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2026-06-12	14.22	17.08	-32.20	459972	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2026-06-05	14.18	17.21	-31.70	603216	Downward Expansion	-76	71
2026-05-29	14.33	17.32	-34.97	934907	Downward Expansion	-77	62
2026-05-22	16.58	17.46	-23.71	193820	Downward Expansion	-49	34
2026-05-15	16.41	17.52	-24.40	316777	Downward Expansion	-51	34
2026-05-08	16.57	17.60	-24.68	441907	Downward Expansion	-38	19
2026-05-01	16.63	17.65	-20.87	200682	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2026-04-24	16.72	17.67	-19.75	242437	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2026-04-17	17.72	17.71	-13.77	439249	Downward Expansion	-29	16
2026-04-10	17.85	17.69	-8.40	673080	Downward Expansion	-43	25
2026-04-03	16.81	17.69	-10.27	599717	Downward Expansion	-57	52
2026-03-27	15.05	17.67	-16.81	493735	Downward Expansion	-77	67
2026-03-20	16.96	17.72	-9.67	323110	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2026-03-13	16.58	17.74	-13.68	349812	Balance	-34	36
2026-03-06	17.03	17.80	-12.80	421303	Balance	-26	25
2026-02-27	17.30	17.85	-12.83	487346	Balance	-21	15
2026-02-20	17.87	17.89	-10.42	322449	Balance	-5	5
2026-02-13	17.27	17.97	-12.66	292464	Balance	-37	23
2026-02-06	17.79	18.08	-11.50	468602	Balance	-32	22
2026-01-30	18.13	18.15	-11.87	787127	Balance	-28	19
2026-01-23	17.70	18.19	-14.50	560095	Balance	-30	21
2026-01-16	16.25	18.25	-21.74	827627	Balance	-39	19
2026-01-09	18.70	18.34	-11.11	503973	Balance	21	26
2026-01-02	18.42	18.40	-10.68	281805	Balance	12	21
2025-12-26	18.79	18.50	-10.71	195228	Balance	12	20
2025-12-19	18.77	18.61	-9.90	445954	Balance	-6	10
2025-12-12	19.05	18.66	-8.12	524808	Balance	-6	5
2025-12-05	17.68	18.71	-16.43	432386	Balance	-35	20
2025-11-28	17.92	18.70	-14.64	329439	Balance	-34	21
2025-11-21	17.06	18.68	-14.99	592626	Balance	-43	22
2025-11-14	18.25	18.72	-12.06	191445	Balance	-18	9
2025-11-07	17.56	18.68	-15.62	216840	Balance	-34	18
2025-10-31	18.33	18.64	-14.86	180482	Balance	-25	18
2025-10-24	18.44	18.53	-13.12	318719	Balance	-28	17
2025-10-17	18.80	18.44	-9.80	498221	Balance	1	7
2025-10-10	18.17	18.36	-10.89	400131	Deceleration	-13	13
2025-10-03	17.19	18.37	-17.77	423014	Deceleration	-28	21
2025-09-26	17.89	18.36	-13.67	382684	Rotation Down	-28	26
2025-09-19	16.98	18.32	-18.71	448247	Rotation Down	-35	44
2025-09-12	17.84	18.34	-13.15	1502950	Rotation Down	-24	48
2025-09-05	16.29	18.37	-19.54	440591	Rotation Down	-40	62
2025-08-29	16.70	18.44	-17.10	684965	Rotation Down	-36	54
2025-08-22	17.60	18.53	-13.30	444683	Deceleration	-26	30
2025-08-15	18.10	18.61	-12.08	423757	Deceleration	1	13
2025-08-08	18.63	18.59	-9.53	447183	Deceleration	15	9
2025-08-01	18.53	18.53	-7.05	241604	Deceleration	29	18
2025-07-25	20.33	18.51	-0.57	297191	Deceleration	55	32
2025-07-18	20.46	18.42	0.60	348021	Deceleration	45	25
2025-07-11	20.03	18.29	-0.42	287060	Deceleration	37	23
2025-07-04	19.34	18.20	-4.54	127469	Upward Expansion	38	22
2025-06-27	19.26	18.12	-3.78	361341	Upward Expansion	45	31
2025-06-20	19.09	18.06	-0.53	165946	Upward Expansion	61	61
2025-06-13	20.42	17.97	6.82	234626	Upward Expansion	65	75
2025-06-06	21.60	17.82	12.80	332591	Upward Expansion	73	80
2025-05-30	21.96	17.68	17.30	334731	Upward Expansion	82	79
2025-05-23	20.37	17.56	11.27	351625	Balance	69	63
2025-05-16	20.48	17.46	9.47	809067	Balance	71	43
2025-05-09	17.52	17.37	0.19	146184	Balance	-4	10
2025-05-02	17.25	17.34	-1.74	152808	Balance	-29	16
2025-04-25	18.08	17.33	6.09	307173	Downward Expansion	-26	14
2025-04-18	17.10	17.31	6.53	237714	Downward Expansion	-50	40
2025-04-11	16.37	17.33	-0.32	455292	Downward Expansion	-53	50
2025-04-04	14.97	17.37	-2.04	485916	Balance	-65	49
2025-03-28	15.95	17.42	-5.88	392260	Balance	-22	26
2025-03-21	16.27	17.50	-6.14	566752	Balance	-20	17
2025-03-14	18.54	17.58	7.09	373306	Balance	29	18
2025-03-07	16.93	17.61	-4.54	319324	Balance	-3	11
2025-02-28	16.60	17.64	-9.65	536356	Balance	14	11
2025-02-21	17.68	17.67	-7.01	118622	Rotation Up	46	25
2025-02-14	18.76	17.74	-3.41	272251	Rotation Up	25	43
2025-02-07	18.13	17.74	-3.71	409752	Rotation Up	26	42
2025-01-31	19.58	17.84	4.52	329718	Rotation Up	38	47
2025-01-24	19.83	17.84	4.88	352464	Balance	31	33
2025-01-17	17.64	17.70	-4.93	458852	Balance	-11	9
2025-01-10	16.72	17.56	-7.17	269672	Balance	-34	14
2025-01-03	17.99	17.50	-2.21	230457	Balance	-15	10
2024-12-27	17.70	17.47	-4.23	141862	Balance	-26	11
2024-12-20	16.49	17.42	-9.52	383622	Balance	-52	23
2024-12-13	17.29	17.42	-6.93	255831	Balance	-18	12
2024-12-06	16.97	17.41	-7.62	374793	Balance	-21	28
2024-11-29	17.47	17.42	-1.38	224066	Balance	-20	27
2024-11-22	16.48	17.46	-5.65	218348	Balance	-25	26
2024-11-15	16.00	17.52	-6.16	220935	Balance	-33	16
2024-11-08	17.28	17.51	-1.50	319414	Balance	3	6
2024-11-01	18.37	17.46	11.24	174134	Balance	33	15
2024-10-25	17.48	17.36	5.07	135191	Balance	-8	13
2024-10-18	17.58	17.25	6.62	194016	Balance	-8	16
2024-10-11	16.81	17.20	2.93	131565	Balance	-14	18
2024-10-04	16.72	17.17	4.22	172580	Balance	5	9
2024-09-27	17.57	17.18	10.12	195732	Balance	14	11
2024-09-20	17.58	17.07	11.73	263291	Balance	25	14
2024-09-13	17.69	16.93	14.86	172892	Balance	27	13
2024-09-06	16.60	16.78	15.04	167582	Upward Expansion	23	11
2024-08-30	18.39	16.62	21.34	481027	Upward Expansion	36	20
2024-08-23	18.55	16.42	22.69	227855	Upward Expansion	37	19
2024-08-16	19.27	16.22	29.92	406072	Upward Expansion	54	29
2024-08-09	18.05	16.02	29.66	558369	Upward Expansion	50	29
2024-08-02	17.48	15.84	27.26	451923	Upward Expansion	55	56
2024-07-26	19.80	15.64	41.01	294319	Upward Expansion	61	66
2024-07-19	18.60	15.31	30.54	1125059	Upward Expansion	52	55
2024-07-12	21.16	15.04	43.79	1336854	Deceleration	70	46
2024-07-05	19.60	14.68	34.24	4059353	Deceleration	51	21
2024-06-28	15.52	14.35	10.85	1341804	Deceleration	11	15
2024-06-21	13.46	14.13	-3.71	404597	Deceleration	-5	13
2024-06-14	14.98	13.97	7.32	235513	Deceleration	26	16
2024-06-07	17.04	13.75	26.66	206677	Deceleration	40	25
2024-05-31	16.31	13.44	25.35	325446	Upward Expansion	40	26
2024-05-24	16.39	13.17	24.88	212858	Upward Expansion	56	42
2024-05-17	16.98	12.88	31.83	179088	Upward Expansion	62	56
2024-05-10	17.32	12.58	38.19	194646	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-05-03	18.65	12.30	51.74	357008	Upward Expansion	77	60
2024-04-26	18.24	12.01	50.84	267878	Upward Expansion	80	56
2024-04-19	15.77	11.75	36.15	660813	Upward Expansion	61	43
2024-04-12	15.99	11.53	30.62	346766	Upward Expansion	69	52
2024-04-05	15.11	11.30	22.42	392671	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-03-29	14.25	11.03	14.10	543947	Upward Expansion	66	62
2024-03-22	15.97	10.83	26.35	503825	Upward Expansion	72	82
2024-03-15	16.00	10.59	30.09	301707	Upward Expansion	78	87
2024-03-08	17.11	10.35	37.57	821492	Upward Expansion	93	89
2024-03-01	14.20	10.07	12.59	186130	Upward Expansion	82	68
2024-02-23	13.40	9.90	7.72	100354	Upward Expansion	77	64
2024-02-16	13.07	9.77	5.85	205151	Upward Expansion	76	64
2024-02-09	11.90	9.66	-5.82	192689	Upward Expansion	65	69
2024-02-02	12.32	9.60	-1.69	126115	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-01-26	12.80	9.54	2.25	230571	Upward Expansion	78	92
2024-01-19	13.00	9.47	3.29	158233	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-01-12	12.65	9.38	2.21	402673	Rotation Up	92	93
2024-01-05	11.47	9.30	-5.40	136156	Rotation Up	60	77
2023-12-29	10.17	9.23	-19.67	106589	Rotation Up	38	65
2023-12-22	10.28	9.19	-19.84	63399	Rotation Up	32	52
2023-12-15	10.53	9.17	-18.02	50155	Balance	36	35
2023-12-08	9.76	9.14	-21.99	71083	Balance	-8	12
2023-12-01	8.85	9.17	-29.16	117840	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2023-11-24	8.59	9.24	-31.74	108482	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2023-11-17	8.33	9.34	-33.95	51028	Downward Expansion	-57	56
2023-11-10	7.70	9.46	-38.25	38008	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2023-11-03	8.22	9.63	-32.71	85961	Downward Expansion	-54	53
2023-10-27	7.77	9.78	-32.88	137753	Downward Expansion	-64	38
2023-10-20	8.10	9.96	-32.27	75881	Downward Expansion	-45	23

Price vs TrendBelow-15.5%

Trend directionFalling-8.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-23.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-32.8%

Relative strength directionWeakening-3.3%

Price momentumNegative-29.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.61×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ±100

-6.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

42 /100

-31.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MDWD Directional State ↗ MDWD Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance27

Rotation Up27

Upward Expansion10

Deceleration60

Rotation Down42

Downward Expansion70

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 35%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 26%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-10-09	Extended	-26.1%
Balance	2025-10-17	2026-03-13	Established	-11.8%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-10-10	New	+5.7%
Rotation Down	2025-08-29	2025-09-26	Developing	+7.1%
Deceleration	2025-07-11	2025-08-22	Developing	-12.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-07-04	Developing	-11.9%
Balance	2025-05-02	2025-05-23	New	+18.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-04-25	New	+10.4%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-04-04	Developing	-9.8%
Rotation Up	2025-01-31	2025-02-21	New	-9.7%
Balance	2024-09-13	2025-01-24	Established	+12.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-19	2024-09-06	Developing	-10.8%
Deceleration	2024-06-07	2024-07-12	Developing	+24.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-01-19	2024-05-31	Established	+25.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing55

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution16

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: -32.77
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -29.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -52.7%
Healthcare regime cohort: 10th percentile286 in cohort

Test MDWD trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.84×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.61×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MDWD Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 13.21rising

Slow Activity USD 14.11falling

Trend Reference USD 14.85-15.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 16.28-23.0% close margin

Structural low USD 12.42shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.2%

Annualized volatility +30.3%

From structural high -37.4%

From structural low +1.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	32	+1.2%-33.3% to +30.1%	+56.2%	+43.8%	-2.4%	+87.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-5.9%-33.6% to +35.9%	+36.4%	+63.6%	-5.7%	+72.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-11.1%-34.4% to +11.0%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-13.6%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-15.1%-40.3% to +102.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-28.3%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MDWD Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map