Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Defensive

CHD Stage Analysis

Church & Dwight Company Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 98.11Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and expanding.

Direction -8−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 9/100lifecycle context

Confidence 50/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +1.2%USD 96.99 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	98.11	96.69	-4.79	8978052	Balance	-8	20
2026-10-02	94.31	96.67	-7.53	10862872	Balance	-20	30
2026-09-25	96.38	96.87	-5.82	6972303	Balance	-10	19
2026-09-18	94.75	97.14	-6.32	10076006	Balance	-5	13
2026-09-11	94.15	97.41	-7.16	8562733	Upward Expansion	13	11
2026-09-04	98.55	97.64	-3.81	9136539	Upward Expansion	50	27
2026-08-28	101.26	97.69	-1.34	7774054	Upward Expansion	57	50
2026-08-21	98.80	97.50	-3.46	8715879	Upward Expansion	53	46
2026-08-14	101.30	97.27	-2.62	7412140	Upward Expansion	57	50
2026-08-07	102.93	96.89	-1.10	10259878	Deceleration	65	44
2026-07-31	98.51	96.30	-2.15	12508566	Deceleration	48	21
2026-07-24	97.34	95.76	-2.51	7102202	Deceleration	34	17
2026-07-17	97.77	95.34	-2.94	8351120	Deceleration	38	22
2026-07-10	96.07	94.90	-6.40	8346116	Deceleration	45	23
2026-07-03	98.60	94.50	-3.03	7304756	Deceleration	53	38
2026-06-26	99.58	94.01	-0.29	10183658	Deceleration	59	36
2026-06-19	95.63	93.52	-6.74	11633822	Deceleration	34	20
2026-06-12	97.56	93.11	-4.43	7573848	Deceleration	39	24
2026-06-05	96.74	92.65	-5.10	11542718	Deceleration	33	18
2026-05-29	95.63	92.29	-8.97	8648932	Deceleration	25	11
2026-05-22	96.25	91.99	-7.56	8088883	Deceleration	27	12
2026-05-15	94.05	91.62	-9.34	11146117	Deceleration	13	10
2026-05-08	93.14	91.41	-10.45	10268003	Deceleration	12	8
2026-05-01	95.71	91.20	-6.26	12136521	Deceleration	21	13
2026-04-24	94.71	90.91	-6.75	9075650	Deceleration	19	14
2026-04-17	96.56	90.61	-5.01	8932560	Deceleration	30	22
2026-04-10	95.11	90.38	-3.04	9757254	Deceleration	26	26
2026-04-03	92.55	90.27	-2.96	7275463	Deceleration	29	29
2026-03-27	94.38	90.35	1.44	10107729	Upward Expansion	40	26
2026-03-20	94.38	90.28	-1.42	13252918	Upward Expansion	49	41
2026-03-13	97.43	90.27	-0.63	11507483	Upward Expansion	64	59
2026-03-06	100.37	90.08	0.23	8637383	Upward Expansion	67	84
2026-02-27	104.52	89.72	1.71	8673955	Upward Expansion	82	93
2026-02-20	102.74	89.33	-0.94	8374611	Rotation Up	84	94
2026-02-13	101.12	89.11	-1.74	10666434	Rotation Up	58	84
2026-02-06	99.90	88.91	-4.45	13597857	Rotation Up	51	76
2026-01-30	95.65	88.81	-9.03	16015406	Balance	45	55
2026-01-23	91.85	88.86	-12.69	14388533	Balance	13	21
2026-01-16	90.04	88.92	-15.14	13620717	Downward Expansion	-10	9
2026-01-09	85.24	89.09	-20.41	11661755	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2026-01-02	82.12	89.44	-22.59	5848949	Downward Expansion	-65	41
2025-12-26	84.85	89.96	-21.38	5036886	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2025-12-19	84.55	90.37	-21.07	14307869	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2025-12-12	84.08	90.71	-21.92	16144946	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2025-12-05	83.99	91.06	-22.92	12701734	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2025-11-28	84.63	91.26	-22.57	9488911	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2025-11-21	83.49	91.49	-21.33	11853646	Downward Expansion	-68	52
2025-11-14	83.57	91.96	-23.32	11318520	Downward Expansion	-72	53
2025-11-07	86.01	92.63	-21.53	11891740	Downward Expansion	-62	46
2025-10-31	86.84	93.19	-22.50	17406908	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2025-10-24	85.05	93.78	-24.04	10038604	Downward Expansion	-72	66
2025-10-17	87.62	94.52	-20.67	9212830	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2025-10-10	86.85	95.11	-20.41	9720878	Downward Expansion	-69	77
2025-10-03	87.04	95.80	-22.52	10041842	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2025-09-26	85.86	96.58	-23.12	12182474	Downward Expansion	-81	59
2025-09-19	89.47	97.37	-20.57	12289450	Downward Expansion	-71	42
2025-09-12	92.03	97.84	-17.71	8139571	Downward Expansion	-48	27
2025-09-05	94.87	98.22	-14.27	8005824	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2025-08-29	92.25	98.49	-16.78	8994394	Downward Expansion	-60	56
2025-08-22	94.09	98.86	-15.49	9764844	Downward Expansion	-60	65
2025-08-15	91.58	99.20	-17.83	10720861	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2025-08-08	89.75	99.63	-19.01	11271442	Downward Expansion	-79	70
2025-08-01	92.80	99.96	-14.63	16348823	Downward Expansion	-68	40
2025-07-25	95.98	100.29	-14.15	10234242	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2025-07-18	95.35	100.55	-13.73	9157327	Downward Expansion	-54	31
2025-07-11	96.79	100.85	-12.19	9615133	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2025-07-04	97.14	101.08	-12.39	8053284	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2025-06-27	93.56	101.34	-14.51	11037526	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2025-06-20	95.19	101.83	-10.35	12785174	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2025-06-13	95.84	102.32	-10.24	9564341	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-06-06	97.79	102.69	-9.09	11822148	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2025-05-30	97.04	102.90	-8.64	12346548	Downward Expansion	-60	59
2025-05-23	94.70	103.08	-9.61	10970357	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2025-05-16	94.58	103.22	-12.34	14146254	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2025-05-09	90.11	103.47	-12.44	10036886	Downward Expansion	-85	84
2025-05-02	91.46	103.78	-11.91	16216735	Balance	-84	76
2025-04-25	97.72	104.03	-3.55	12440127	Balance	-43	33
2025-04-18	103.69	104.17	6.72	6932825	Balance	-1	9
2025-04-11	102.68	104.09	4.08	11438765	Balance	14	12
2025-04-04	104.40	104.06	11.79	12336440	Upward Expansion	30	14
2025-03-28	107.37	104.01	4.68	5885535	Upward Expansion	51	40
2025-03-21	105.44	103.76	1.25	8166944	Upward Expansion	53	56
2025-03-14	107.36	103.58	3.50	8427596	Upward Expansion	53	59
2025-03-07	110.54	103.26	4.03	8288891	Balance	70	65
2025-02-28	109.42	102.90	-0.27	8989428	Balance	65	44
2025-02-21	103.65	102.46	-6.53	6037780	Balance	28	12
2025-02-14	103.32	102.30	-8.52	6701483	Balance	27	12
2025-02-07	103.05	102.20	-7.63	7862521	Balance	25	13
2025-01-31	103.54	102.15	-7.57	9672445	Balance	16	10
2025-01-24	104.26	102.17	-8.11	5496894	Balance	18	13
2025-01-17	104.48	102.07	-6.59	9095964	Balance	26	19
2025-01-10	99.52	102.13	-8.62	6320472	Balance	4	15
2025-01-03	102.68	102.31	-7.83	3873552	Balance	26	19
2024-12-27	103.96	102.38	-7.38	2602407	Upward Expansion	34	20
2024-12-20	104.11	102.40	-6.84	10516493	Upward Expansion	41	24
2024-12-13	103.66	102.39	-9.08	6214033	Upward Expansion	57	47
2024-12-06	105.20	102.40	-8.46	7846038	Upward Expansion	62	68
2024-11-29	108.07	102.37	-5.39	5809517	Rotation Up	66	74
2024-11-22	109.81	102.21	-2.98	8726477	Rotation Up	53	66
2024-11-15	106.98	102.00	-4.10	7494248	Balance	33	44
2024-11-08	104.19	101.82	-8.72	9906568	Balance	19	18
2024-11-01	102.52	101.63	-6.15	10090337	Balance	-18	8
2024-10-25	98.70	101.52	-11.04	5218277	Balance	-42	24
2024-10-18	102.12	101.62	-9.24	6004350	Balance	-21	11
2024-10-11	99.45	101.61	-11.16	5564142	Balance	-44	21
2024-10-04	98.89	101.68	-10.89	6990518	Balance	-37	16
2024-09-27	102.17	101.76	-7.91	6762574	Balance	2	12
2024-09-20	101.20	101.61	-8.55	9792009	Balance	-24	18
2024-09-13	101.83	101.49	-7.02	7178722	Balance	-23	17
2024-09-06	102.94	101.27	-2.51	6520170	Rotation Down	4	6
2024-08-30	99.71	101.04	-9.66	4814805	Rotation Down	-25	20
2024-08-23	99.99	100.93	-9.45	4919845	Rotation Down	-30	34
2024-08-16	97.88	100.80	-10.37	6450868	Rotation Down	-37	55
2024-08-09	99.79	100.67	-5.27	8647327	Rotation Down	-23	47
2024-08-02	96.16	100.51	-8.91	12597597	Balance	-43	51
2024-07-26	98.94	100.34	-8.50	6908672	Balance	-9	21
2024-07-19	100.14	100.10	-8.39	7755274	Balance	-1	14
2024-07-12	101.67	99.73	-9.09	7277231	Upward Expansion	30	16
2024-07-05	104.03	99.30	-6.38	4978675	Upward Expansion	41	27
2024-06-28	101.19	98.84	-7.49	13391775	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-06-21	106.31	98.56	-3.18	4912650	Upward Expansion	72	53
2024-06-14	105.11	98.08	-3.88	6743581	Upward Expansion	67	50
2024-06-07	104.80	97.57	-2.78	5188671	Upward Expansion	67	51
2024-05-31	104.44	96.97	-2.06	7158110	Upward Expansion	66	51
2024-05-24	103.91	96.29	-3.09	3716596	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-05-17	103.83	95.73	-3.37	4816324	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-05-10	104.45	95.17	-1.43	4802056	Upward Expansion	73	67
2024-05-03	103.29	94.52	-0.99	8451198	Upward Expansion	69	51
2024-04-26	103.49	93.85	-0.47	5146617	Upward Expansion	74	49
2024-04-19	101.57	93.36	0.04	6067544	Upward Expansion	68	45
2024-04-12	98.39	93.03	-6.18	5481181	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-04-05	99.28	92.82	-6.86	7304084	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-03-29	101.53	92.59	-5.81	4975791	Upward Expansion	69	82
2024-03-22	101.82	92.31	-5.36	5163343	Upward Expansion	74	83
2024-03-15	101.56	91.93	-3.64	6252272	Upward Expansion	79	83
2024-03-08	101.35	91.55	-4.03	6005261	Upward Expansion	82	72
2024-03-01	97.61	91.26	-7.89	5051948	Upward Expansion	68	56
2024-02-23	97.73	91.05	-6.99	3923719	Upward Expansion	72	66
2024-02-16	95.18	90.91	-8.02	6255900	Upward Expansion	63	66
2024-02-09	95.92	90.90	-7.70	9449016	Upward Expansion	65	71
2024-02-02	96.44	90.88	-5.97	9624181	Rotation Up	73	76
2024-01-26	96.20	90.85	-4.88	6083984	Rotation Up	45	59
2024-01-19	94.07	90.86	-5.96	5471135	Rotation Up	35	48
2024-01-12	94.77	90.85	-4.21	6091880	Balance	30	33
2024-01-05	91.10	90.79	-6.20	4866324	Balance	-6	7
2023-12-29	91.77	90.78	-7.11	3845685	Balance	-3	6
2023-12-22	89.19	90.73	-9.51	5341870	Balance	-13	12
2023-12-15	88.80	90.78	-9.24	8724890	Balance	-10	17
2023-12-08	90.20	90.88	-5.73	6141972	Balance	11	22
2023-12-01	92.56	90.99	-3.05	10128621	Balance	-7	19
2023-11-24	92.04	91.03	-2.77	4970616	Downward Expansion	-18	13
2023-11-17	89.68	91.08	-4.22	8356680	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2023-11-10	86.82	91.03	-5.03	9879057	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2023-11-03	83.99	90.97	-6.74	11815479	Downward Expansion	-71	60
2023-10-27	87.20	91.08	2.56	8539329	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2023-10-20	87.21	91.01	0.22	6808563	Rotation Down	-64	77

Price vs TrendAbove+1.5%

Trend directionRising+0.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+1.2%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.6%

Price momentumPositive+3.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.25×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-8 / ±100

-21.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

20 /100

+9.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CHD Directional State ↗ CHD Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance54

Rotation Up21

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration54

Rotation Down48

Downward Expansion42

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 27%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	+3.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-09-11	Developing	-7.1%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-08-07	Established	+11.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-03-27	Developing	-9.7%
Rotation Up	2026-02-06	2026-02-20	New	+2.8%
Balance	2026-01-23	2026-01-30	New	+4.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-09	2026-01-16	Extended	-0.1%
Balance	2025-04-11	2025-05-02	New	-10.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-04-04	New	-2.8%
Balance	2025-01-03	2025-03-07	Developing	+7.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-06	2024-12-27	New	-1.2%
Rotation Up	2024-11-22	2024-11-29	New	-1.6%
Balance	2024-09-13	2024-11-15	Developing	+5.1%
Rotation Down	2024-08-09	2024-09-06	Developing	+3.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing61

Stage 2 · Advancing55

Stage 3 · Distribution65

Stage 4 · Declining45

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 53/100
Current Relative Strength: -4.79
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +3.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.7%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 4th percentile24 in cohort

Test CHD trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.99×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.25×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CHD Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 96.04falling

Slow Activity USD 97.33falling

Trend Reference USD 96.69+1.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 96.99+1.2% close margin

Structural low USD 89.76shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.5%

Annualized volatility +16.8%

From structural high -7.2%

From structural low +21.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	17	+0.8%-12.2% to +11.9%	+52.9%	+52.9%	-0.8%	+41.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+2.1%-8.9% to +18.2%	+60.0%	+60.0%	-2.8%	+30.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+6.0%-25.0% to +20.8%	+71.4%	+71.4%	-2.9%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+12.8%-20.0% to +16.7%	+75.0%	+75.0%	-11.0%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CHD Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map