Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Defensive

ELF Stage Analysis

ELF Beauty Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 109.23Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 75−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 58/100directional strength

Maturity 65/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -5.0%USD 115.02 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	109.23	77.38	21.65	5493204	Upward Expansion	75	58
2026-10-02	104.68	76.19	16.76	6267071	Upward Expansion	69	53
2026-09-25	99.51	75.45	9.54	6357837	Upward Expansion	61	54
2026-09-18	96.44	75.20	6.32	7720780	Upward Expansion	65	61
2026-09-11	96.91	75.12	5.27	6029651	Upward Expansion	67	82
2026-09-04	109.67	74.60	16.72	8886358	Upward Expansion	84	93
2026-08-28	104.10	73.69	9.76	7079250	Upward Expansion	82	92
2026-08-21	101.94	73.05	6.99	9320359	Rotation Up	86	92
2026-08-14	91.44	72.79	-6.09	9662771	Rotation Up	48	73
2026-08-07	98.49	72.74	0.31	22316285	Rotation Up	64	75
2026-07-31	82.89	72.36	-13.06	10358296	Rotation Up	41	63
2026-07-24	77.36	72.19	-18.93	11760050	Rotation Up	32	48
2026-07-17	73.69	72.29	-24.21	10079740	Rotation Up	24	38
2026-07-10	76.75	72.52	-23.30	12919534	Downward Expansion	13	32
2026-07-03	76.42	72.50	-23.44	19800121	Downward Expansion	1	21
2026-06-26	67.43	72.67	-32.05	13773511	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2026-06-19	64.20	72.96	-37.85	16365679	Downward Expansion	-48	37
2026-06-12	61.15	73.16	-41.22	21751233	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2026-06-05	49.57	73.57	-52.92	22045051	Downward Expansion	-80	84
2026-05-29	56.00	74.37	-49.04	16417833	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2026-05-22	52.90	76.58	-51.92	30283447	Downward Expansion	-77	79
2026-05-15	56.43	78.91	-48.77	20211789	Downward Expansion	-72	61
2026-05-08	60.86	81.59	-45.05	12584985	Downward Expansion	-66	52
2026-05-01	60.49	83.89	-44.36	13843094	Downward Expansion	-68	51
2026-04-24	66.28	86.36	-38.76	9351338	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2026-04-17	66.82	88.47	-38.08	10570739	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2026-04-10	65.13	90.91	-36.98	12349297	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2026-04-03	61.16	93.25	-38.73	13568872	Downward Expansion	-77	82
2026-03-27	61.05	95.67	-36.88	11035156	Downward Expansion	-81	77
2026-03-20	72.50	97.81	-26.91	9938423	Downward Expansion	-69	49
2026-03-13	73.41	99.33	-27.33	13874516	Downward Expansion	-59	32
2026-03-06	82.44	100.76	-19.74	9640685	Downward Expansion	-32	19
2026-02-27	92.05	101.40	-12.18	8146400	Downward Expansion	-24	18
2026-02-20	94.02	102.22	-10.58	10010679	Downward Expansion	-26	23
2026-02-13	81.50	103.11	-21.52	14439475	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2026-02-06	82.09	104.31	-21.98	16886655	Downward Expansion	-48	27
2026-01-30	84.99	105.24	-19.39	8987837	Downward Expansion	-36	25
2026-01-23	94.16	106.78	-10.85	6282147	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2026-01-16	89.99	107.85	-15.60	8308801	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2026-01-09	87.02	108.84	-19.52	10863980	Downward Expansion	-48	42
2026-01-02	77.81	110.12	-27.71	6109256	Downward Expansion	-53	50
2025-12-26	80.42	111.45	-26.95	4383866	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2025-12-19	80.44	112.52	-26.78	8704247	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2025-12-12	76.36	112.63	-31.25	8857145	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2025-12-05	81.40	112.73	-28.18	12940596	Downward Expansion	-66	87
2025-11-28	76.17	112.25	-33.45	6141177	Rotation Down	-68	88
2025-11-21	70.05	111.98	-37.29	12022708	Rotation Down	-52	79
2025-11-14	73.51	111.68	-36.25	17985625	Rotation Down	-47	66
2025-11-07	73.74	110.98	-36.67	33442288	Rotation Down	-40	35
2025-10-31	122.14	110.31	2.14	6405368	Upward Expansion	34	17
2025-10-24	122.81	108.07	3.39	7246955	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-10-17	136.92	106.14	17.35	6538385	Upward Expansion	61	39
2025-10-10	129.69	103.67	13.32	7671073	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-10-03	134.61	101.62	14.86	5877796	Upward Expansion	62	50
2025-09-26	129.77	99.49	12.14	7888986	Upward Expansion	63	64
2025-09-19	139.96	97.50	20.56	9914327	Upward Expansion	75	76
2025-09-12	135.22	95.34	18.04	8316338	Upward Expansion	72	68
2025-09-05	133.97	93.26	18.73	7862391	Deceleration	74	51
2025-08-29	125.00	91.17	10.88	8843022	Deceleration	66	38
2025-08-22	118.15	90.33	3.90	9277129	Deceleration	44	26
2025-08-15	116.37	90.08	1.26	15253887	Deceleration	42	27
2025-08-08	101.77	90.43	-11.62	18192911	Deceleration	42	30
2025-08-01	116.42	91.20	2.03	6471657	Upward Expansion	48	40
2025-07-25	120.86	91.50	1.99	7203552	Upward Expansion	55	51
2025-07-18	117.63	91.73	-0.77	10250340	Rotation Up	64	59
2025-07-11	109.98	92.10	-7.94	11314619	Rotation Up	40	56
2025-07-04	130.98	93.12	7.13	5084928	Rotation Up	53	82
2025-06-27	126.33	93.41	3.49	8503106	Rotation Up	50	82
2025-06-20	119.85	93.51	-0.21	8235272	Rotation Up	37	78
2025-06-13	125.26	93.73	2.36	11456226	Rotation Up	53	82
2025-06-06	117.66	93.60	-5.52	12445283	Rotation Up	53	61
2025-05-30	112.49	93.69	-9.36	32860880	Rotation Up	31	44
2025-05-23	83.93	93.37	-32.21	10544296	Downward Expansion	-15	29
2025-05-16	79.30	94.26	-38.79	12979462	Downward Expansion	-39	32
2025-05-09	66.84	95.22	-46.48	10046591	Downward Expansion	-51	50
2025-05-02	68.05	96.65	-46.68	9414106	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2025-04-25	61.15	97.91	-51.50	12770582	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2025-04-18	52.65	99.62	-57.20	8036371	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2025-04-11	53.61	101.63	-57.80	20103404	Downward Expansion	-78	69
2025-04-04	54.93	103.73	-55.12	18550328	Downward Expansion	-81	70
2025-03-28	64.83	105.99	-52.61	8999048	Downward Expansion	-71	72
2025-03-21	62.85	108.82	-55.65	10596234	Downward Expansion	-79	84
2025-03-14	68.18	112.42	-52.68	14485451	Downward Expansion	-74	87
2025-03-07	70.68	115.46	-53.03	14145605	Downward Expansion	-72	89
2025-02-28	70.25	118.46	-55.65	11322016	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2025-02-21	74.92	121.65	-54.18	11563950	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2025-02-14	73.00	125.25	-56.82	22386956	Downward Expansion	-84	90
2025-02-07	71.13	128.73	-57.98	42925139	Downward Expansion	-88	84
2025-01-31	99.91	133.39	-42.01	10107097	Balance	-71	56
2025-01-24	110.55	136.74	-37.25	9027246	Balance	-50	31
2025-01-17	126.95	140.08	-27.38	8595922	Balance	-27	18
2025-01-10	124.89	142.71	-27.03	5016532	Balance	-25	18
2025-01-03	125.39	144.97	-28.71	3845765	Balance	-12	9
2024-12-27	127.76	146.71	-28.14	2672647	Balance	-8	16
2024-12-20	128.66	148.68	-27.59	7664769	Balance	-7	19
2024-12-13	140.63	150.77	-22.76	7315879	Downward Expansion	2	21
2024-12-06	139.60	151.36	-24.15	9660269	Downward Expansion	-18	24
2024-11-29	129.52	152.18	-29.24	7327344	Downward Expansion	-34	28
2024-11-22	126.42	153.20	-30.36	23954434	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2024-11-15	121.33	154.98	-32.23	13623261	Downward Expansion	-49	44
2024-11-08	120.20	156.16	-34.45	23505900	Downward Expansion	-53	52
2024-11-01	103.12	157.58	-41.16	10588965	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2024-10-25	110.38	159.52	-38.06	10898482	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2024-10-18	108.20	162.38	-40.09	12341956	Downward Expansion	-69	81
2024-10-11	109.72	165.62	-38.95	10449603	Downward Expansion	-69	83
2024-10-04	105.89	168.61	-40.58	11073598	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2024-09-27	112.56	171.78	-36.87	12320506	Downward Expansion	-72	86
2024-09-20	112.91	175.27	-36.56	12523308	Downward Expansion	-78	86
2024-09-13	116.63	177.71	-33.74	17568010	Downward Expansion	-81	81
2024-09-06	122.60	179.62	-27.91	9681794	Downward Expansion	-82	74
2024-08-30	149.79	181.35	-15.99	9432096	Downward Expansion	-68	59
2024-08-23	170.95	182.02	-4.10	7366668	Balance	-57	50
2024-08-16	159.20	181.55	-9.29	14291559	Balance	-33	37
2024-08-09	160.83	181.51	-4.62	15303011	Balance	-15	23
2024-08-02	165.95	181.40	-1.57	6565229	Balance	-10	14
2024-07-26	182.82	180.47	6.27	8075179	Upward Expansion	31	15
2024-07-19	177.52	179.19	2.83	9647189	Upward Expansion	44	28
2024-07-12	210.90	178.06	20.30	6050722	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-07-05	200.24	175.85	16.15	4152349	Upward Expansion	58	62
2024-06-28	210.72	173.41	25.39	13234996	Upward Expansion	69	64
2024-06-21	205.91	170.47	23.43	5358502	Deceleration	66	55
2024-06-14	192.63	167.42	17.13	5777738	Deceleration	46	33
2024-06-07	177.63	164.76	10.59	6271495	Deceleration	30	21
2024-05-31	186.91	162.01	18.49	5202931	Deceleration	39	21
2024-05-24	191.42	158.98	21.69	16300606	Deceleration	36	16
2024-05-17	158.45	156.01	1.50	5838552	Deceleration	-1	11
2024-05-10	164.09	154.13	7.42	4897742	Deceleration	4	15
2024-05-03	160.12	152.04	7.43	6997362	Deceleration	1	17
2024-04-26	179.63	150.03	22.01	10159431	Deceleration	20	26
2024-04-19	156.73	147.70	10.20	8937182	Deceleration	10	24
2024-04-12	162.91	145.98	11.62	7296635	Deceleration	32	23
2024-04-05	161.38	144.75	9.67	12439701	Upward Expansion	43	35
2024-03-29	196.03	143.90	33.02	3870691	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-03-22	205.60	141.93	41.67	6129766	Upward Expansion	71	68
2024-03-15	199.37	139.10	42.34	5803166	Upward Expansion	68	75
2024-03-08	200.91	136.39	45.42	7922411	Upward Expansion	74	82
2024-03-01	217.40	134.11	59.39	6905902	Upward Expansion	95	95
2024-02-23	185.94	131.13	40.04	4057061	Upward Expansion	84	90
2024-02-16	173.98	128.80	34.99	6061725	Upward Expansion	76	85
2024-02-09	174.52	126.72	36.63	12023479	Upward Expansion	80	86
2024-02-02	169.76	124.76	36.51	5400247	Upward Expansion	82	84
2024-01-26	157.14	122.77	29.86	15264232	Upward Expansion	71	67
2024-01-19	157.79	121.34	33.61	6465508	Upward Expansion	78	79
2024-01-12	157.61	119.69	37.10	5590783	Upward Expansion	83	85
2024-01-05	138.02	117.91	24.25	4570034	Upward Expansion	67	81
2023-12-29	144.34	116.79	29.42	2540015	Upward Expansion	76	85
2023-12-22	143.84	115.48	31.11	5248982	Upward Expansion	81	84
2023-12-15	144.37	114.07	34.58	7990129	Balance	73	71
2023-12-08	127.27	112.25	23.17	5039731	Balance	28	32
2023-12-01	122.44	111.02	20.19	6723074	Balance	20	19
2023-11-24	114.38	109.88	14.49	3670404	Rotation Down	-3	7
2023-11-17	112.85	109.16	15.21	8890677	Rotation Down	-22	21
2023-11-10	95.09	108.62	0.30	9614711	Rotation Down	-38	38
2023-11-03	96.15	108.46	3.62	15697078	Rotation Down	-30	45
2023-10-27	102.24	107.96	17.58	5301643	Rotation Down	-23	42
2023-10-20	101.88	107.30	15.66	6621369	Deceleration	-25	38

Price vs TrendAbove+41.2%

Trend directionRising+6.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-5.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+29.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+21.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+45.0%

Price momentumPositive+67.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.62×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

75 / ±100

+7.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

58 /100

-24.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ELF Directional State ↗ ELF Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance16

Rotation Up51

Upward Expansion81

Deceleration70

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion10

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 41%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-09	Developing	+4.9%
Rotation Up	2026-07-17	2026-08-21	Developing	+38.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-07-10	Extended	-5.7%
Rotation Down	2025-11-07	2025-11-28	New	+3.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-10-31	Developing	-9.7%
Deceleration	2025-08-08	2025-09-05	Developing	+31.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-08-01	New	-3.7%
Rotation Up	2025-05-30	2025-07-18	Developing	+4.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-05-23	Established	+18.0%
Balance	2024-12-20	2025-01-31	Developing	-22.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-30	2024-12-13	Established	-6.1%
Balance	2024-08-02	2024-08-23	New	+3.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-06-28	2024-07-26	Developing	-13.2%
Deceleration	2024-04-12	2024-06-21	Developing	+26.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing41

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution31

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: 21.65
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +67.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +52.8%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 100th percentile10 in cohort

Test ELF trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.45×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.62×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ELF Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 103.55rising

Slow Activity USD 86.24rising

Trend Reference USD 77.38+41.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 115.02-5.0% close margin

Structural low USD 48.82shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.8%

Annualized volatility +58.5%

From structural high -22.8%

From structural low +123.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	30	-0.2%-43.1% to +36.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.6%	+76.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	+1.4%-46.6% to +45.0%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-2.8%	+58.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+15.1%-22.1% to +86.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+5.1%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+31.1%-36.0% to +226.3%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+20.6%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ELF Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map