Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

MND Stage Analysis

Monadelphous Group Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 30.82Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 53−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 54/100directional strength

Maturity 6/100lifecycle context

Confidence 88/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +63.1%AUD 18.90 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	30.82	29.46	9.73	819269	Upward Expansion	53	54
2026-10-02	31.23	29.33	12.27	1016607	Balance	58	51
2026-09-25	30.97	29.29	12.28	1335116	Balance	54	22
2026-09-18	30.62	29.32	10.88	1908171	Balance	38	21
2026-09-11	28.69	29.30	4.44	1133545	Balance	-11	10
2026-09-04	28.40	29.30	0.90	189676	Balance	15	12
2026-08-28	28.34	29.30	0.22	200106	Balance	30	24
2026-08-21	31.53	29.37	12.48	164064	Balance	67	59
2026-08-14	31.31	29.30	11.86	142436	Balance	53	32
2026-08-07	29.34	29.24	3.93	130163	Balance	-14	8
2026-07-31	28.67	29.16	5.48	232263	Balance	-12	14
2026-07-24	29.10	29.07	10.28	119966	Balance	-8	12
2026-07-17	29.15	28.98	11.02	355511	Balance	20	12
2026-07-10	28.31	28.88	8.58	139691	Upward Expansion	11	13
2026-07-03	28.75	28.79	10.66	155063	Upward Expansion	19	14
2026-06-26	30.58	28.69	19.81	182520	Upward Expansion	45	20
2026-06-19	28.66	28.55	12.58	451181	Upward Expansion	29	16
2026-06-12	28.98	28.44	15.13	149460	Upward Expansion	50	37
2026-06-05	30.52	28.36	24.86	1077150	Upward Expansion	59	54
2026-05-29	31.06	28.08	26.86	359125	Deceleration	66	56
2026-05-22	30.03	27.81	25.06	792158	Deceleration	54	39
2026-05-15	29.94	27.54	26.36	1348993	Deceleration	54	34
2026-05-08	29.75	27.30	25.23	892489	Deceleration	43	23
2026-05-01	29.05	27.08	23.78	1012263	Deceleration	37	20
2026-04-24	28.90	26.87	23.62	726477	Deceleration	35	17
2026-04-17	28.33	26.64	20.26	894525	Deceleration	20	10
2026-04-10	29.24	26.41	25.11	952028	Deceleration	33	17
2026-04-03	28.05	26.14	26.65	1066759	Deceleration	25	20
2026-03-27	28.06	25.90	28.95	1047490	Deceleration	30	19
2026-03-20	27.40	25.66	28.58	2178765	Deceleration	37	23
2026-03-13	26.89	25.42	24.70	1645942	Upward Expansion	40	32
2026-03-06	30.04	25.18	36.98	1362021	Upward Expansion	59	48
2026-02-27	31.91	24.81	41.72	1876685	Upward Expansion	78	57
2026-02-20	30.03	24.37	36.82	864779	Upward Expansion	72	59
2026-02-13	28.70	23.98	34.68	1259100	Upward Expansion	64	59
2026-02-06	28.27	23.63	37.48	1189564	Upward Expansion	66	68
2026-01-30	30.66	23.26	48.28	1636760	Upward Expansion	85	86
2026-01-23	29.45	22.79	44.60	890240	Upward Expansion	82	68
2026-01-16	29.53	22.38	46.29	1041859	Upward Expansion	88	67
2026-01-09	26.73	21.95	37.24	789774	Upward Expansion	68	56
2026-01-02	26.12	21.63	35.59	258264	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-12-26	26.39	21.32	38.07	270159	Upward Expansion	70	62
2025-12-19	25.99	21.00	39.98	1703265	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-12-12	25.80	20.69	39.57	972406	Upward Expansion	65	74
2025-12-05	25.55	20.38	41.03	867077	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-11-28	26.38	20.06	47.89	1530036	Upward Expansion	84	82
2025-11-21	25.42	19.69	48.12	1530315	Upward Expansion	81	72
2025-11-14	26.55	19.34	53.11	2099975	Upward Expansion	92	73
2025-11-07	22.17	18.94	27.90	1193623	Upward Expansion	62	59
2025-10-31	22.88	18.68	31.70	842738	Upward Expansion	71	67
2025-10-24	22.18	18.40	27.12	773302	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-10-17	22.59	18.17	31.10	766933	Upward Expansion	68	80
2025-10-10	23.12	17.92	36.21	957631	Upward Expansion	84	87
2025-10-03	22.69	17.63	34.77	1088950	Upward Expansion	86	83
2025-09-26	22.10	17.36	35.70	923635	Upward Expansion	83	73
2025-09-19	21.52	17.13	33.81	1782682	Upward Expansion	80	77
2025-09-12	21.15	16.93	31.54	1125438	Upward Expansion	79	72
2025-09-05	20.77	16.72	30.40	926496	Upward Expansion	79	83
2025-08-29	20.75	16.51	30.06	1435387	Upward Expansion	87	91
2025-08-22	20.37	16.32	28.96	1998786	Upward Expansion	89	93
2025-08-15	19.54	16.11	25.15	1018209	Upward Expansion	85	93
2025-08-08	19.06	15.91	24.99	1170632	Upward Expansion	82	92
2025-08-01	18.76	15.73	26.19	1400908	Upward Expansion	85	92
2025-07-25	18.37	15.55	24.60	914410	Upward Expansion	83	82
2025-07-18	18.00	15.38	21.72	1058099	Upward Expansion	84	71
2025-07-11	17.19	15.20	19.46	975558	Upward Expansion	71	57
2025-07-04	16.74	15.05	16.70	1330904	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-06-27	16.98	14.92	20.24	1117841	Upward Expansion	67	57
2025-06-20	16.79	14.75	19.72	1479564	Upward Expansion	65	65
2025-06-13	17.01	14.60	21.26	1046941	Upward Expansion	73	81
2025-06-06	16.84	14.42	21.15	689502	Upward Expansion	73	82
2025-05-30	16.67	14.26	21.65	1014713	Upward Expansion	73	82
2025-05-23	16.69	14.10	23.34	1085925	Upward Expansion	78	82
2025-05-16	16.52	13.94	22.91	1131003	Upward Expansion	77	72
2025-05-09	15.88	13.79	20.33	1063404	Upward Expansion	69	50
2025-05-02	15.50	13.67	17.81	1080694	Deceleration	64	34
2025-04-25	14.77	13.55	16.43	746530	Deceleration	38	20
2025-04-18	14.71	13.46	18.50	803311	Deceleration	38	23
2025-04-11	14.31	13.36	18.31	1934072	Deceleration	40	27
2025-04-04	14.57	13.28	20.47	1102380	Deceleration	45	33
2025-03-28	15.17	13.17	20.87	1010711	Upward Expansion	57	41
2025-03-21	15.07	13.06	21.24	1727411	Upward Expansion	67	48
2025-03-14	14.28	12.96	17.34	1436133	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-03-07	14.57	12.85	17.65	1185788	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-02-28	15.25	12.72	20.07	1329167	Upward Expansion	72	77
2025-02-21	15.70	12.58	22.02	1910364	Upward Expansion	90	92
2025-02-14	14.74	12.45	11.45	1094616	Upward Expansion	76	86
2025-02-07	14.54	12.34	10.65	904657	Upward Expansion	76	86
2025-01-31	14.96	12.25	13.64	1032358	Upward Expansion	92	94
2025-01-24	14.08	12.14	8.69	765005	Upward Expansion	83	88
2025-01-17	13.47	12.06	5.31	824008	Upward Expansion	69	84
2025-01-10	13.79	12.01	7.81	1309406	Upward Expansion	86	89
2025-01-03	13.37	11.95	4.99	586844	Upward Expansion	80	83
2024-12-27	13.24	11.92	3.65	388657	Upward Expansion	82	80
2024-12-20	12.62	11.90	1.01	1220242	Upward Expansion	63	68
2024-12-13	12.61	11.90	-2.09	991365	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-12-06	12.83	11.88	-2.20	1728155	Balance	73	55
2024-11-29	12.07	11.87	-8.42	1226899	Balance	21	13
2024-11-22	12.02	11.88	-8.80	1006964	Balance	8	6
2024-11-15	11.75	11.89	-10.13	964136	Balance	2	3
2024-11-08	12.08	11.90	-8.19	774820	Balance	13	8
2024-11-01	11.93	11.92	-7.84	884823	Balance	10	10
2024-10-25	11.81	11.95	-10.22	1005645	Rotation Up	11	16
2024-10-18	11.91	11.99	-10.67	789547	Rotation Up	13	19
2024-10-11	12.25	12.02	-7.81	571844	Balance	18	19
2024-10-04	12.07	12.02	-8.80	1258442	Balance	-5	12
2024-09-27	12.00	12.05	-10.39	1151922	Balance	-18	11
2024-09-20	11.76	12.08	-12.49	835243	Downward Expansion	-30	17
2024-09-13	11.79	12.11	-11.53	1124483	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2024-09-06	11.25	12.13	-14.98	1227580	Downward Expansion	-45	22
2024-08-30	11.87	12.17	-11.56	1339821	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2024-08-23	12.05	12.19	-9.78	2448981	Downward Expansion	-53	41
2024-08-16	10.99	12.20	-17.44	1691763	Downward Expansion	-67	71
2024-08-09	10.70	12.27	-17.84	1278891	Downward Expansion	-81	76
2024-08-02	11.05	12.35	-17.19	2562332	Downward Expansion	-76	61
2024-07-26	11.77	12.41	-11.83	1398330	Downward Expansion	-59	54
2024-07-19	11.52	12.47	-14.35	1103443	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2024-07-12	11.77	12.52	-12.51	884828	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2024-07-05	11.71	12.57	-11.52	1411568	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2024-06-28	11.83	12.61	-9.94	1705881	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2024-06-21	11.96	12.64	-9.22	2277400	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2024-06-14	12.03	12.68	-7.73	650654	Downward Expansion	-55	25
2024-06-07	12.25	12.71	-7.61	780996	Downward Expansion	-40	18
2024-05-31	12.71	12.74	-2.13	1018981	Downward Expansion	-28	12
2024-05-24	12.59	12.75	-3.21	821155	Downward Expansion	-48	26
2024-05-17	12.11	12.75	-7.85	800633	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2024-05-10	12.58	12.77	-3.52	892456	Downward Expansion	-51	47
2024-05-03	12.13	12.78	-5.50	910110	Balance	-57	51
2024-04-26	12.37	12.79	-2.93	1123241	Balance	-49	36
2024-04-19	12.13	12.81	-4.57	1059587	Balance	-57	24
2024-04-12	12.77	12.84	-2.28	3602819	Balance	-26	13
2024-04-05	12.75	12.85	-2.11	954732	Balance	-27	11
2024-03-29	13.06	12.84	-1.14	886527	Balance	-17	8
2024-03-22	12.68	12.84	-2.40	1180264	Balance	-33	14
2024-03-15	12.37	12.84	-3.35	1289051	Balance	-45	20
2024-03-08	12.78	12.82	-2.25	1381582	Balance	-6	5
2024-03-01	12.97	12.80	0.71	1276504	Balance	-5	7
2024-02-23	12.62	12.77	-0.41	1376320	Balance	-26	34
2024-02-16	12.50	12.75	-1.35	1089733	Balance	-20	37
2024-02-09	12.50	12.72	-1.13	816179	Balance	-19	24
2024-02-02	12.56	12.68	-1.38	1358460	Balance	-15	19
2024-01-26	12.26	12.60	-1.81	1532414	Balance	-4	10
2024-01-19	12.90	12.54	5.21	479115	Upward Expansion	38	22
2024-01-12	13.13	12.45	6.27	496442	Upward Expansion	51	32
2024-01-05	13.07	12.38	6.09	291899	Upward Expansion	53	37
2023-12-29	13.43	12.31	7.74	268872	Upward Expansion	64	40
2023-12-22	13.17	12.22	7.10	934812	Upward Expansion	55	31
2023-12-15	13.30	12.15	9.14	1318205	Upward Expansion	63	35
2023-12-08	12.77	12.10	8.55	1242197	Upward Expansion	51	30
2023-12-01	12.75	12.06	10.42	1705010	Upward Expansion	54	36
2023-11-24	13.16	12.01	14.73	1170738	Upward Expansion	62	43
2023-11-17	13.03	11.94	13.83	986486	Upward Expansion	58	37
2023-11-10	13.12	11.87	16.04	1051243	Upward Expansion	63	39
2023-11-03	12.88	11.81	14.09	747605	Upward Expansion	48	33
2023-10-27	12.67	11.74	14.82	808978	Upward Expansion	44	31
2023-10-20	12.83	11.69	15.20	780553	Upward Expansion	48	34

Price vs TrendAbove+4.6%

Trend directionRising+1.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+63.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+0.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+9.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.1%

Price momentumPositive+5.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led4.65×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

53 / ±100

+63.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

54 /100

+43.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MND Directional State ↗ MND Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance33

Rotation Up65

Upward Expansion84

Deceleration47

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion15

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 23%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 53%Deceleration 10%Downward Expansion 13%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-10-02	Developing	+7.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-07-10	Developing	-7.2%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-05-29	Developing	+13.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-09	2026-03-13	Extended	+69.4%
Deceleration	2025-04-04	2025-05-02	Developing	+6.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-03-28	Established	+20.3%
Balance	2024-11-01	2024-12-06	Developing	+7.5%
Rotation Up	2024-10-18	2024-10-25	New	-0.9%
Balance	2024-09-27	2024-10-11	New	+2.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-10	2024-09-20	Established	-6.5%
Balance	2024-01-26	2024-05-03	Established	-1.0%
Upward Expansion	2023-08-18	2024-01-19	Established	+9.5%
Rotation Up	2023-08-04	2023-08-11	New	+0.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing39

Stage 2 · Advancing86

Stage 3 · Distribution70

Stage 4 · Declining14

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: 9.73
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +5.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +8.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 61th percentile31 in cohort

Test MND trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume4.65×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MND Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 30.79rising

Slow Activity AUD 29.76rising

Trend Reference AUD 29.46+4.6% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 18.90+63.1% close margin

Structural low AUD 27.60shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.4%

Annualized volatility +27.0%

From structural high -15.1%

From structural low +42.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	31	+2.1%-13.9% to +14.6%	+58.1%	+58.1%	+1.5%	+77.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	+9.2%-4.1% to +28.8%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+9.2%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+19.1%-11.7% to +51.7%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+21.4%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+11.1%-6.7% to +104.6%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+15.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MND Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map