Weekly structural research · NYSE · Basic Materials

IAG Stage Analysis

IAMGold Corporation

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 18.80Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 39−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 23/100directional strength

Maturity 35/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +101.2%USD 9.35 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	18.80	17.74	-1.85	15705852	Deceleration	39	23
2026-10-02	18.52	17.78	-1.84	23709764	Rotation Up	43	30
2026-09-25	19.70	17.88	4.51	29383569	Rotation Up	59	45
2026-09-18	20.35	18.05	9.90	40428669	Rotation Up	35	59
2026-09-11	20.26	18.11	10.14	13146368	Rotation Up	38	65
2026-09-04	20.48	18.15	11.32	17753493	Rotation Up	30	62
2026-08-28	20.59	18.11	13.05	28619126	Rotation Up	34	43
2026-08-21	21.14	18.03	17.79	32596901	Downward Expansion	37	36
2026-08-14	18.30	18.02	1.73	28832648	Downward Expansion	-16	13
2026-08-07	18.32	17.98	2.92	36390450	Downward Expansion	-28	24
2026-07-31	14.19	17.95	-16.66	27817551	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2026-07-24	14.66	18.01	-12.38	24756221	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2026-07-17	14.14	18.11	-15.36	25672741	Downward Expansion	-69	58
2026-07-10	15.32	18.20	-9.10	19387522	Downward Expansion	-61	41
2026-07-03	16.56	18.22	0.37	17673209	Downward Expansion	-51	35
2026-06-26	15.87	18.17	-0.86	29141287	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2026-06-19	16.88	18.16	3.87	30574836	Deceleration	-25	29
2026-06-12	16.65	18.03	4.35	35496847	Deceleration	-26	34
2026-06-05	15.42	17.93	-1.97	21584013	Deceleration	-39	40
2026-05-29	17.88	17.84	11.66	21293739	Deceleration	-14	15
2026-05-22	16.52	17.63	5.81	28112785	Deceleration	-22	33
2026-05-15	16.98	17.48	10.77	23781054	Deceleration	0	19
2026-05-08	18.70	17.36	23.65	35048891	Deceleration	10	13
2026-05-01	16.59	17.16	13.64	33238129	Deceleration	-2	8
2026-04-24	17.23	17.05	20.39	52737131	Deceleration	5	5
2026-04-17	19.25	16.89	36.70	28354774	Deceleration	27	13
2026-04-10	20.02	16.62	50.35	25903731	Deceleration	27	22
2026-04-03	19.09	16.33	50.87	26422944	Deceleration	23	23
2026-03-27	17.74	16.02	47.63	38076974	Deceleration	27	23
2026-03-20	16.07	15.74	32.98	53405198	Upward Expansion	28	24
2026-03-13	19.83	15.50	63.49	34556850	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-03-06	21.76	15.11	80.37	39768186	Upward Expansion	65	70
2026-02-27	24.57	14.63	104.60	37493373	Upward Expansion	88	88
2026-02-20	22.20	14.04	89.44	40083027	Upward Expansion	79	66
2026-02-13	21.63	13.54	91.55	44726292	Upward Expansion	83	68
2026-02-06	19.12	13.04	71.37	48909546	Upward Expansion	67	60
2026-01-30	18.18	12.64	65.96	59643807	Upward Expansion	64	59
2026-01-23	20.95	12.29	95.76	52277210	Upward Expansion	91	73
2026-01-16	17.17	11.82	64.01	35073308	Upward Expansion	68	62
2026-01-09	17.21	11.49	67.08	35138215	Upward Expansion	71	65
2026-01-02	16.22	11.17	63.14	23433295	Upward Expansion	67	70
2025-12-26	17.61	10.88	78.67	20838361	Upward Expansion	83	89
2025-12-19	16.79	10.52	76.77	45690973	Upward Expansion	82	89
2025-12-12	15.84	10.19	70.67	32268262	Upward Expansion	79	81
2025-12-05	15.27	9.87	66.96	31184792	Upward Expansion	78	74
2025-11-28	15.54	9.59	73.83	30172418	Upward Expansion	85	66
2025-11-21	12.88	9.30	52.43	40953995	Upward Expansion	62	50
2025-11-14	13.73	9.10	61.76	50324080	Upward Expansion	77	57
2025-11-07	12.68	8.91	52.36	66924586	Upward Expansion	60	52
2025-10-31	11.58	8.73	38.88	65009398	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-10-24	11.88	8.53	45.18	63324217	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-10-17	13.36	8.34	68.43	64558336	Upward Expansion	80	81
2025-10-10	12.70	8.10	65.50	76800055	Upward Expansion	75	90
2025-10-03	13.28	7.87	71.97	88037412	Upward Expansion	94	98
2025-09-26	12.42	7.61	65.65	99940537	Upward Expansion	94	98
2025-09-19	11.34	7.38	53.27	83577104	Upward Expansion	90	96
2025-09-12	11.16	7.19	54.65	72988693	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-09-05	9.91	7.03	41.27	43531533	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-08-29	9.31	6.92	34.67	40567171	Upward Expansion	86	87
2025-08-22	8.77	6.81	28.09	55027187	Upward Expansion	80	74
2025-08-15	8.14	6.72	20.15	73788847	Deceleration	70	48
2025-08-08	7.50	6.64	12.48	72751496	Deceleration	46	21
2025-08-01	6.86	6.58	6.15	56306074	Deceleration	30	17
2025-07-25	7.03	6.53	6.89	74371263	Deceleration	34	18
2025-07-18	6.90	6.47	7.25	57175874	Upward Expansion	36	20
2025-07-11	7.05	6.41	11.03	68412262	Upward Expansion	50	29
2025-07-04	7.48	6.36	18.30	48633164	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-06-27	7.08	6.28	14.90	81289150	Upward Expansion	53	42
2025-06-20	7.25	6.23	22.81	69318337	Upward Expansion	55	47
2025-06-13	7.63	6.18	30.38	91875414	Deceleration	65	48
2025-06-06	7.44	6.09	28.20	117567276	Deceleration	60	30
2025-05-30	6.86	6.03	21.52	72876004	Deceleration	37	20
2025-05-23	6.73	5.98	22.33	72632868	Deceleration	36	20
2025-05-16	6.30	5.95	12.51	63777305	Upward Expansion	49	29
2025-05-09	7.01	5.94	32.34	87521233	Upward Expansion	56	56
2025-05-02	6.72	5.87	27.38	55169211	Upward Expansion	59	69
2025-04-25	7.03	5.81	38.52	71162160	Upward Expansion	59	68
2025-04-18	7.83	5.75	63.16	68715147	Upward Expansion	83	77
2025-04-11	7.22	5.67	50.68	123159611	Upward Expansion	75	58
2025-04-04	5.63	5.61	25.88	79315613	Upward Expansion	38	22
2025-03-28	6.29	5.59	28.97	52441343	Upward Expansion	57	29
2025-03-21	6.04	5.54	23.33	56829294	Upward Expansion	37	20
2025-03-14	5.89	5.51	22.21	65964136	Upward Expansion	29	21
2025-03-07	5.50	5.49	12.63	58408961	Upward Expansion	25	16
2025-02-28	5.52	5.45	10.40	52465092	Upward Expansion	37	26
2025-02-21	5.72	5.39	14.31	50928295	Upward Expansion	61	59
2025-02-14	6.33	5.33	25.72	60273034	Upward Expansion	69	75
2025-02-07	6.41	5.25	30.78	69297692	Upward Expansion	75	74
2025-01-31	6.24	5.18	28.83	65426585	Upward Expansion	70	65
2025-01-24	6.04	5.11	25.02	49385891	Balance	66	54
2025-01-17	5.58	5.03	18.92	67625399	Balance	48	26
2025-01-10	5.67	4.97	25.77	39145574	Balance	50	23
2025-01-03	5.51	4.90	21.12	31616482	Balance	26	12
2024-12-27	5.16	4.83	14.04	19433013	Balance	19	11
2024-12-20	5.20	4.79	16.65	39171734	Upward Expansion	34	16
2024-12-13	5.34	4.75	18.54	33961299	Upward Expansion	39	23
2024-12-06	5.35	4.73	19.16	31009940	Upward Expansion	38	21
2024-11-29	5.50	4.69	24.82	23076065	Upward Expansion	44	28
2024-11-22	5.70	4.63	32.03	35952232	Upward Expansion	62	35
2024-11-15	4.94	4.56	17.62	38953628	Upward Expansion	54	36
2024-11-08	5.69	4.52	33.81	41778475	Upward Expansion	63	54
2024-11-01	5.40	4.45	34.58	32747081	Upward Expansion	58	46
2024-10-25	5.77	4.40	43.15	52248482	Upward Expansion	71	51
2024-10-18	5.97	4.31	48.17	55780706	Upward Expansion	81	53
2024-10-11	4.83	4.22	22.42	58054451	Upward Expansion	49	40
2024-10-04	5.04	4.16	30.29	36850924	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-09-27	5.28	4.09	38.34	45410968	Upward Expansion	66	59
2024-09-20	5.48	4.01	46.13	46180231	Upward Expansion	78	74
2024-09-13	5.42	3.91	48.46	31189386	Upward Expansion	82	86
2024-09-06	4.81	3.82	38.59	32332403	Upward Expansion	66	83
2024-08-30	4.94	3.74	38.07	31327449	Upward Expansion	69	84
2024-08-23	5.21	3.66	47.49	47916222	Upward Expansion	87	88
2024-08-16	5.08	3.56	47.68	62066683	Upward Expansion	85	67
2024-08-09	4.28	3.47	31.13	50810272	Upward Expansion	64	37
2024-08-02	3.86	3.42	19.32	50930429	Upward Expansion	50	32
2024-07-26	3.92	3.37	19.21	42439215	Upward Expansion	53	38
2024-07-19	4.01	3.32	21.49	63416189	Upward Expansion	55	40
2024-07-12	4.21	3.28	25.43	48530328	Deceleration	67	42
2024-07-05	3.99	3.22	20.41	23723942	Deceleration	45	24
2024-06-28	3.75	3.16	15.76	27258512	Deceleration	31	24
2024-06-21	3.70	3.12	14.47	36077972	Deceleration	35	24
2024-06-14	3.62	3.08	13.00	37986548	Upward Expansion	41	26
2024-06-07	3.58	3.04	13.57	49249470	Upward Expansion	58	48
2024-05-31	3.95	2.99	26.80	42888080	Upward Expansion	63	60
2024-05-24	4.00	2.95	28.22	67864005	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-05-17	4.52	2.90	45.39	49002297	Upward Expansion	89	82
2024-05-10	4.30	2.83	41.44	46029309	Upward Expansion	89	75
2024-05-03	3.59	2.76	20.40	31597503	Upward Expansion	67	72
2024-04-26	3.78	2.72	27.13	49618507	Upward Expansion	76	89
2024-04-19	3.66	2.66	26.56	62332997	Upward Expansion	75	89
2024-04-12	3.61	2.61	21.13	74361239	Upward Expansion	78	88
2024-04-05	3.72	2.58	22.77	63327735	Upward Expansion	89	90
2024-03-29	3.33	2.53	8.90	27074135	Upward Expansion	81	84
2024-03-22	2.98	2.50	-2.31	34275124	Upward Expansion	65	75
2024-03-15	3.08	2.47	2.92	45522121	Upward Expansion	76	78
2024-03-08	3.14	2.44	4.72	54226967	Upward Expansion	82	73
2024-03-01	2.74	2.41	-8.66	37548328	Balance	59	48
2024-02-23	2.63	2.41	-11.64	28760048	Balance	51	35
2024-02-16	2.57	2.40	-12.37	43979910	Balance	47	21
2024-02-09	2.45	2.41	-17.01	32619782	Balance	25	13
2024-02-02	2.47	2.43	-15.62	40760029	Balance	2	2
2024-01-26	2.42	2.43	-16.57	38928048	Balance	-0	4
2024-01-19	2.32	2.44	-19.74	37743983	Balance	-4	3
2024-01-12	2.61	2.45	-9.25	35108820	Balance	26	24
2024-01-05	2.36	2.46	-16.82	23537519	Balance	11	10
2023-12-29	2.53	2.48	-12.74	20243169	Balance	22	13
2023-12-22	2.64	2.49	-9.06	42949194	Balance	21	19
2023-12-15	2.44	2.49	-15.43	36028609	Balance	-23	11
2023-12-08	2.26	2.50	-19.76	24469463	Balance	-37	15
2023-12-01	2.64	2.53	-6.15	36197036	Balance	2	4
2023-11-24	2.44	2.55	-12.47	18915784	Balance	-16	8
2023-11-17	2.33	2.57	-15.50	25820186	Balance	-20	14
2023-11-10	2.28	2.58	-15.24	22050161	Balance	-23	18
2023-11-03	2.60	2.61	-1.89	25623828	Balance	-2	14
2023-10-27	2.58	2.62	3.68	28309837	Downward Expansion	-24	14
2023-10-20	2.41	2.63	-4.81	21022702	Downward Expansion	-53	35

Price vs TrendAbove+6.0%

Trend directionFalling-1.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+101.2%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+9.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+7.2%

Price momentumNegative-6.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.77×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

39 / ±100

+0.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

23 /100

-42.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

IAG Directional State ↗ IAG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance47

Rotation Up29

Upward Expansion60

Deceleration90

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion15

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 58%Deceleration 17%Downward Expansion 7%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-10-02	Developing	-10.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-08-21	Developing	+33.2%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-06-19	Established	-4.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2026-03-20	Extended	+83.2%
Deceleration	2025-07-25	2025-08-15	New	+15.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-07-18	Developing	-4.8%
Deceleration	2025-05-23	2025-06-13	New	+13.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-31	2025-05-16	Established	+1.0%
Balance	2024-12-27	2025-01-24	Developing	+17.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-19	2024-12-20	Established	+29.7%
Deceleration	2024-06-21	2024-07-12	New	+13.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-08	2024-06-14	Established	+15.3%
Balance	2023-11-03	2024-03-01	Established	+5.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing52

Stage 2 · Advancing49

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 37/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.85
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -6.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -21.0%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 81th percentile26 in cohort

Test IAG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.77×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore IAG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 19.21falling

Slow Activity USD 18.06rising

Trend Reference USD 17.74+6.0% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 9.35+101.2% close margin

Structural low USD 13.62shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +10.3%

Annualized volatility +61.0%

From structural high -24.4%

From structural low +73.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	14	+0.7%-16.2% to +24.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.0%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+16.1%-14.4% to +48.1%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+14.5%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+11.0%-32.3% to +91.4%	+80.0%	+80.0%	-9.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+56.0%-35.0% to +108.5%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+36.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

IAG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map