Weekly structural research · SHZ · Basic Materials

000890 Stage Analysis

Jiangsu Fasten Company Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 6.96Tenure DevelopingBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -69−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 48/100directional strength

Maturity 67/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +36.1%CNY 5.11 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	6.96	10.07	-4.71	43832900	Downward Expansion	-69	48
2026-09-25	7.35	10.14	-1.94	87592465	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2026-09-18	7.68	10.15	0.79	199631084	Downward Expansion	-38	30
2026-09-11	8.38	10.09	12.30	308796516	Downward Expansion	-35	31
2026-09-04	8.51	9.99	14.85	443268068	Downward Expansion	-40	31
2026-08-28	8.60	9.88	13.73	125999971	Downward Expansion	-46	43
2026-08-21	7.30	9.78	-3.50	15933900	Downward Expansion	-54	74
2026-08-14	7.35	9.71	-4.07	11840100	Downward Expansion	-66	84
2026-08-07	7.37	9.64	-3.12	14713600	Rotation Down	-40	77
2026-07-31	6.73	9.57	-6.23	19055848	Rotation Down	-43	78
2026-07-24	6.40	9.52	-11.66	16726500	Rotation Down	-51	80
2026-07-17	6.49	9.50	-9.65	16966000	Rotation Down	-44	70
2026-07-10	7.38	9.48	-6.04	25017201	Rotation Down	-38	66
2026-07-03	8.12	9.38	0.14	32088700	Rotation Down	-34	59
2026-06-26	7.93	9.26	-2.83	22808836	Deceleration	-36	51
2026-06-19	8.90	9.14	7.93	106598942	Deceleration	-11	29
2026-06-12	9.62	9.01	25.82	32999701	Deceleration	-3	21
2026-06-05	10.26	8.85	32.34	40710410	Deceleration	18	24
2026-05-29	10.55	8.66	35.29	190771770	Deceleration	32	25
2026-05-22	11.70	8.46	51.70	248075404	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-05-15	12.14	8.23	60.24	348698494	Upward Expansion	50	45
2026-05-08	14.13	7.98	89.70	277296225	Upward Expansion	63	57
2026-05-01	15.66	7.66	121.69	345328960	Upward Expansion	73	66
2026-04-24	16.24	7.28	139.58	510504146	Upward Expansion	84	72
2026-04-17	12.41	6.88	89.91	380559702	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-04-10	14.21	6.61	131.59	356261191	Upward Expansion	70	89
2026-04-03	16.01	6.27	188.39	448038242	Upward Expansion	96	99
2026-03-27	13.48	5.87	145.70	390422691	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-03-20	13.13	5.56	144.44	534402991	Upward Expansion	98	99
2026-03-13	11.09	5.26	106.75	387936980	Upward Expansion	96	98
2026-03-06	9.05	5.04	74.03	618336517	Upward Expansion	94	92
2026-02-27	7.66	4.87	46.34	392713485	Upward Expansion	88	79
2026-02-13	6.03	4.75	19.66	155214349	Deceleration	69	42
2026-02-06	5.37	4.68	8.64	83898197	Deceleration	41	26
2026-01-30	5.17	4.63	2.83	81405200	Deceleration	39	25
2026-01-23	5.52	4.59	8.42	100492935	Upward Expansion	58	34
2026-01-16	5.25	4.54	4.78	266971702	Upward Expansion	51	33
2026-01-09	5.29	4.48	7.12	180898978	Upward Expansion	56	49
2026-01-02	5.07	4.43	7.64	102695600	Upward Expansion	59	68
2025-12-26	5.37	4.40	13.82	312788953	Upward Expansion	57	67
2025-12-19	5.83	4.35	28.50	458862878	Upward Expansion	75	67
2025-12-12	5.87	4.27	28.81	197914105	Upward Expansion	78	42
2025-12-05	4.43	4.20	-1.69	78775240	Upward Expansion	32	16
2025-11-28	4.48	4.17	0.37	56892153	Upward Expansion	38	23
2025-11-21	4.23	4.13	-1.91	76676768	Upward Expansion	37	26
2025-11-14	4.95	4.09	8.82	65068593	Upward Expansion	69	52
2025-11-07	4.80	4.03	4.31	77970549	Upward Expansion	65	53
2025-10-31	4.65	3.97	1.38	93506196	Upward Expansion	59	51
2025-10-24	4.65	3.93	2.20	139056532	Upward Expansion	62	57
2025-10-17	4.79	3.88	10.27	229557877	Upward Expansion	72	66
2025-10-10	4.56	3.86	0.14	64333567	Upward Expansion	65	56
2025-10-03	4.43	3.83	-3.71	104501694	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-09-26	4.44	3.80	-1.13	194729523	Deceleration	62	37
2025-09-19	4.31	3.77	-2.95	164461354	Deceleration	57	28
2025-09-12	4.14	3.75	-5.68	135818426	Deceleration	41	22
2025-09-05	4.08	3.73	-4.60	102761077	Upward Expansion	48	28
2025-08-29	3.88	3.70	-9.96	102661973	Upward Expansion	54	36
2025-08-22	4.18	3.67	1.25	101809111	Upward Expansion	58	48
2025-08-15	4.24	3.63	7.68	129950329	Upward Expansion	62	51
2025-08-08	4.44	3.60	18.13	182935772	Upward Expansion	75	50
2025-08-01	3.93	3.55	6.29	78382268	Upward Expansion	56	35
2025-07-25	4.03	3.51	7.64	152750487	Upward Expansion	60	39
2025-07-18	3.99	3.49	9.55	244983404	Upward Expansion	60	44
2025-07-11	3.91	3.49	10.08	87796612	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-07-04	3.99	3.50	14.88	145109000	Upward Expansion	63	42
2025-06-27	3.91	3.51	14.45	57692164	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-06-20	3.63	3.50	10.85	69836788	Upward Expansion	56	53
2025-06-13	3.82	3.50	15.88	97138900	Balance	58	60
2025-06-06	4.03	3.49	22.18	151768833	Balance	44	54
2025-05-30	3.83	3.48	18.56	186362798	Balance	35	30
2025-05-23	3.60	3.47	10.89	80348134	Balance	4	15
2025-05-16	3.59	3.47	10.30	56856142	Balance	-17	11
2025-05-09	3.55	3.46	9.85	49045022	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2025-05-02	3.32	3.44	5.05	43403900	Downward Expansion	-55	50
2025-04-25	3.13	3.44	-1.29	36678900	Balance	-56	53
2025-04-18	3.15	3.44	0.41	48278504	Balance	-45	36
2025-04-11	2.98	3.42	-5.71	69952163	Balance	-23	16
2025-04-04	3.27	3.41	-2.48	55048087	Balance	14	12
2025-03-28	3.31	3.38	-4.40	220196056	Deceleration	41	30
2025-03-21	4.18	3.35	18.68	114830485	Deceleration	79	67
2025-03-14	3.67	3.30	1.23	64175000	Deceleration	56	40
2025-03-07	3.52	3.27	-2.11	52667296	Deceleration	39	31
2025-02-28	3.58	3.24	1.10	71054694	Deceleration	39	29
2025-02-21	3.67	3.21	-0.09	135062313	Deceleration	42	23
2025-02-14	3.51	3.16	-2.54	172268059	Deceleration	25	14
2025-02-07	3.24	3.13	-8.55	58141901	Deceleration	-17	22
2025-01-31	3.00	3.11	-12.40	13721500	Deceleration	-21	35
2025-01-24	3.01	3.10	-14.23	82748017	Deceleration	-20	31
2025-01-17	3.15	3.08	-10.05	48968001	Deceleration	5	24
2025-01-10	2.91	3.06	-14.87	50228910	Deceleration	5	21
2025-01-03	2.96	3.05	-15.54	55161576	Upward Expansion	20	14
2024-12-27	3.37	3.04	-12.02	91077076	Upward Expansion	58	41
2024-12-20	3.85	3.02	-0.52	77382375	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-12-13	4.20	2.99	7.02	165177867	Upward Expansion	75	64
2024-12-06	4.22	2.96	6.28	258726967	Upward Expansion	80	61
2024-11-29	3.75	2.93	-4.43	81703327	Upward Expansion	69	59
2024-11-22	3.66	2.92	-5.81	149960910	Upward Expansion	67	59
2024-11-15	3.53	2.92	-12.35	84607161	Upward Expansion	64	72
2024-11-08	3.73	2.91	-11.40	100562494	Rotation Up	77	77
2024-11-01	3.38	2.91	-14.89	156278546	Rotation Up	37	56
2024-10-25	3.70	2.95	-8.84	165573465	Rotation Up	56	71
2024-10-18	3.16	2.97	-20.53	63436395	Rotation Up	27	49
2024-10-11	3.01	3.00	-22.53	109262828	Downward Expansion	18	33
2024-10-04	3.35	3.03	-18.18	56683621	Downward Expansion	19	29
2024-09-27	3.11	3.06	-16.42	111639176	Downward Expansion	2	8
2024-09-20	2.60	3.07	-18.14	23845810	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2024-09-13	2.58	3.10	-18.31	35296443	Downward Expansion	-53	37
2024-09-06	2.51	3.10	-22.42	38339900	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2024-08-30	2.53	3.13	-24.36	45338838	Downward Expansion	-45	29
2024-08-23	2.42	3.19	-26.70	77964100	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2024-08-16	2.75	3.25	-18.88	168903505	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2024-08-09	2.76	3.32	-19.70	102684212	Downward Expansion	-50	43
2024-08-02	2.54	3.40	-27.87	51531965	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2024-07-26	2.43	3.50	-31.61	77196618	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2024-07-19	2.49	3.58	-32.59	91980685	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2024-07-12	2.51	3.66	-31.97	120357604	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2024-07-05	2.70	3.73	-25.75	87975391	Downward Expansion	-66	73
2024-06-28	2.48	3.79	-33.10	37631591	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2024-06-21	2.52	3.87	-33.88	36306135	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2024-06-14	2.63	3.94	-32.69	30929191	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2024-06-07	2.62	4.01	-33.27	56399688	Downward Expansion	-83	86
2024-05-31	2.93	4.08	-26.62	32342545	Downward Expansion	-74	76
2024-05-24	3.02	4.12	-25.11	77263600	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2024-05-17	3.12	4.16	-25.16	70809485	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2024-05-10	3.46	4.20	-17.45	69193612	Downward Expansion	-58	62
2024-05-03	3.47	4.23	-16.10	29306699	Downward Expansion	-57	55
2024-04-26	3.47	4.26	-15.08	56679129	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2024-04-19	3.30	4.30	-17.73	102648323	Downward Expansion	-60	26
2024-04-12	3.81	4.34	-4.69	131117943	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2024-04-05	4.46	4.37	7.71	168531604	Downward Expansion	-15	19
2024-03-29	4.47	4.37	9.72	217656863	Downward Expansion	-20	19
2024-03-22	4.08	4.38	-1.80	122609271	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2024-03-15	3.90	4.40	-6.63	131404871	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2024-03-08	4.07	4.46	0.21	237269078	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2024-03-01	3.42	4.49	-16.06	142994357	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2024-02-23	3.43	4.51	-12.38	161483484	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2024-02-09	2.85	4.53	-25.06	156430267	Balance	-87	86
2024-02-02	3.40	4.57	-2.22	73612331	Balance	-53	47
2024-01-26	4.30	4.59	14.14	76991266	Balance	-8	15
2024-01-19	4.25	4.58	13.29	72781301	Upward Expansion	18	15
2024-01-12	4.80	4.57	25.73	105373801	Upward Expansion	58	53
2024-01-05	5.16	4.54	34.50	219591932	Upward Expansion	66	66
2023-12-29	5.43	4.51	36.78	334023995	Upward Expansion	83	65
2023-12-22	4.93	4.48	29.49	251017140	Upward Expansion	68	39
2023-12-15	4.76	4.46	23.87	41099426	Upward Expansion	60	43
2023-12-08	4.56	4.44	17.27	37414549	Upward Expansion	54	50
2023-12-01	4.72	4.44	19.86	33397699	Upward Expansion	58	60
2023-11-24	4.74	4.43	19.51	41037300	Balance	50	53
2023-11-17	4.75	4.42	18.65	37692172	Balance	49	38
2023-11-10	4.58	4.41	15.01	42330215	Balance	30	13
2023-11-03	4.66	4.42	18.95	108720262	Balance	1	6
2023-10-27	4.36	4.44	12.67	34567500	Balance	-21	19
2023-10-20	4.17	4.47	10.38	25890500	Balance	-28	21
2023-10-13	4.29	4.52	8.28	34341311	Balance	-31	18
2023-09-29	4.41	4.55	11.07	31295800	Balance	-7	9
2023-09-22	4.41	4.54	10.60	57182977	Balance	-4	8

Price vs TrendBelow-30.9%

Trend directionRising+5.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+36.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-30.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-4.9%

Price momentumNegative-56.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.14×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-69 / ±100

-29.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

48 /100

+17.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

000890 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up27

Upward Expansion11

Deceleration60

Rotation Down48

Downward Expansion73

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 37%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-10-02	Developing	-5.3%
Rotation Down	2026-07-03	2026-08-07	Developing	-9.2%
Deceleration	2026-05-29	2026-06-26	Developing	-24.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-05-22	Established	+52.7%
Deceleration	2026-01-30	2026-02-13	New	+16.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-03	2026-01-23	Established	+24.6%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-09-26	New	+7.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-09-05	Developing	+12.4%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-06-13	Developing	+6.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-05-09	New	+6.9%
Balance	2025-04-04	2025-04-25	New	-4.3%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-03-28	Developing	+13.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-15	2025-01-03	Developing	-16.1%
Rotation Up	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	+18.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing32

Stage 2 · Advancing25

Stage 3 · Distribution41

Stage 4 · Declining75

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: -4.71
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -56.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -53.0%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 36th percentile193 in cohort

Test 000890 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.44×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.14×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 000890 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 7.50falling

Slow Activity CNY 8.66falling

Trend Reference CNY 10.07-30.9% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 5.11+36.1% close margin

Structural low CNY 6.36shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +13.3%

Annualized volatility +67.3%

From structural high -60.5%

From structural low +64.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	22	+2.9%-19.1% to +33.5%	+68.2%	+31.8%	+3.0%	+72.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+6.1%-19.9% to +51.2%	+55.6%	+44.4%	+7.3%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+4.6%-29.4% to +51.7%	+71.4%	+28.6%	+7.6%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+20.0%-8.6% to +325.6%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+31.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

000890 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map