Weekly structural research · ASX · Communication Services

SEG Stage Analysis

Sports Entertainment Group Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.255Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -38−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 56/100directional strength

Maturity 20/100lifecycle context

Confidence 67/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +11.7%AUD 0.2284 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.255	0.2907	-5.73	739132	Rotation Down	-38	56
2026-10-02	0.24	0.2907	-10.89	284250	Rotation Down	-57	71
2026-09-25	0.26	0.291	-3.40	5199	Rotation Down	-36	59
2026-09-18	0.265	0.2915	-2.46	122742	Rotation Down	-36	65
2026-09-11	0.27	0.2921	-0.92	115368	Rotation Down	-34	64
2026-09-04	0.27	0.2914	-3.99	121023	Deceleration	-36	53
2026-08-28	0.275	0.2907	-3.36	151961	Deceleration	-34	42
2026-08-21	0.28	0.2897	-1.42	25604	Deceleration	-2	24
2026-08-14	0.29	0.2885	1.57	306173	Deceleration	14	21
2026-08-07	0.305	0.2872	5.33	120	Upward Expansion	42	30
2026-07-31	0.335	0.2856	19.68	11699	Upward Expansion	61	51
2026-07-24	0.33	0.2827	21.42	26610	Upward Expansion	66	65
2026-07-17	0.36	0.2802	32.73	20918	Upward Expansion	77	85
2026-07-10	0.345	0.2766	27.97	0	Upward Expansion	69	74
2026-07-03	0.37	0.2737	37.51	123415	Upward Expansion	90	87
2026-06-26	0.325	0.2697	22.88	7095	Upward Expansion	71	78
2026-06-19	0.32	0.2671	20.86	2529	Upward Expansion	70	77
2026-06-12	0.32	0.2639	22.29	6480	Upward Expansion	73	76
2026-06-05	0.32	0.2609	25.81	3218	Upward Expansion	78	75
2026-05-29	0.31	0.2576	21.44	0	Upward Expansion	74	70
2026-05-22	0.285	0.2556	13.47	8760	Upward Expansion	56	57
2026-05-15	0.285	0.2543	14.47	59857	Balance	54	50
2026-05-08	0.295	0.2528	17.59	146409	Balance	59	44
2026-05-01	0.28	0.2515	12.52	114667	Balance	50	20
2026-04-24	0.26	0.2511	4.37	354914	Balance	17	11
2026-04-17	0.24	0.252	-5.22	34496	Balance	-14	12
2026-04-10	0.25	0.2538	-1.48	118239	Balance	21	10
2026-04-03	0.25	0.2554	2.88	135103	Balance	-2	3
2026-03-27	0.26	0.257	7.86	64173	Balance	15	7
2026-03-20	0.27	0.2583	13.78	32036	Balance	24	16
2026-03-13	0.255	0.258	5.93	93157	Balance	19	20
2026-03-06	0.25	0.258	1.70	178994	Balance	6	21
2026-02-27	0.275	0.2582	8.01	672085	Balance	24	41
2026-02-20	0.2844	0.2568	13.69	1376550	Balance	30	30
2026-02-13	0.2489	0.2559	2.06	237	Balance	-34	20
2026-02-06	0.2489	0.2563	4.92	113821	Balance	-34	22
2026-01-30	0.2444	0.2563	1.64	74934	Balance	-37	18
2026-01-23	0.2444	0.2565	2.20	10703	Balance	-36	17
2026-01-16	0.2489	0.2561	3.99	7237	Balance	-17	11
2026-01-09	0.2578	0.2542	10.49	55766	Balance	10	11
2026-01-02	0.2489	0.2525	7.07	102000	Balance	3	14
2025-12-26	0.2533	0.2509	9.15	4414	Balance	2	15
2025-12-19	0.2533	0.2493	11.42	5026	Balance	-2	16
2025-12-12	0.2578	0.2476	12.86	107607	Rotation Down	-4	8
2025-12-05	0.2489	0.2459	10.18	0	Rotation Down	-18	20
2025-11-28	0.2489	0.2442	10.87	39777	Rotation Down	-23	31
2025-11-21	0.2222	0.2425	1.72	21971	Rotation Down	-35	57
2025-11-14	0.2311	0.2423	3.17	21338	Rotation Down	-29	49
2025-11-07	0.2222	0.2418	-2.31	24228	Deceleration	-41	45
2025-10-31	0.2489	0.2416	8.02	5118	Deceleration	2	27
2025-10-24	0.2444	0.2405	4.59	155652	Deceleration	7	26
2025-10-17	0.24	0.2384	2.98	55942	Deceleration	11	23
2025-10-10	0.2578	0.2358	11.11	25334	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-10-03	0.2667	0.2327	14.83	35504	Upward Expansion	61	54
2025-09-26	0.2889	0.23	27.48	151	Upward Expansion	66	74
2025-09-19	0.2933	0.2267	30.50	6883	Upward Expansion	67	80
2025-09-12	0.2978	0.2227	31.30	17443	Upward Expansion	77	81
2025-09-05	0.2978	0.2191	31.28	31605	Upward Expansion	84	83
2025-08-29	0.2978	0.2155	30.12	5002	Upward Expansion	92	73
2025-08-22	0.2633	0.2116	15.31	107350	Upward Expansion	76	59
2025-08-15	0.2546	0.2089	11.83	4988	Upward Expansion	70	60
2025-08-08	0.2546	0.2064	13.38	93634	Upward Expansion	73	71
2025-08-01	0.233	0.2043	5.38	30443	Upward Expansion	68	86
2025-07-25	0.2589	0.2023	16.71	211349	Upward Expansion	75	91
2025-07-18	0.2589	0.20	15.46	20882	Upward Expansion	84	94
2025-07-11	0.2503	0.1977	13.76	107865	Upward Expansion	82	87
2025-07-04	0.2503	0.1961	13.36	123905	Upward Expansion	86	81
2025-06-27	0.233	0.1943	6.82	25828	Deceleration	76	46
2025-06-20	0.1899	0.1932	-12.98	10743	Deceleration	20	13
2025-06-13	0.2072	0.1941	-5.63	58	Deceleration	45	28
2025-06-06	0.2028	0.1945	-7.46	0	Deceleration	38	24
2025-05-30	0.2028	0.1948	-6.76	17935	Deceleration	39	22
2025-05-23	0.2028	0.1952	-6.09	2489	Rotation Up	13	11
2025-05-16	0.2072	0.1958	-3.65	2092	Rotation Up	30	22
2025-05-09	0.1985	0.1961	-6.10	1500	Rotation Up	29	29
2025-05-02	0.1985	0.1965	-5.95	19525	Rotation Up	24	52
2025-04-25	0.2158	0.1972	5.89	20170	Rotation Up	30	58
2025-04-18	0.2158	0.1966	8.12	7064	Rotation Up	34	44
2025-04-11	0.2158	0.1981	10.95	0	Rotation Up	35	33
2025-04-04	0.2158	0.1998	11.02	375914	Rotation Up	-6	9
2025-03-28	0.1813	0.2006	-9.84	190376	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2025-03-21	0.164	0.2029	-17.95	14033	Downward Expansion	-71	50
2025-03-14	0.164	0.2055	-16.66	13710	Downward Expansion	-75	49
2025-03-07	0.1856	0.2079	-7.79	8800	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2025-02-28	0.1899	0.2097	-7.97	27165	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2025-02-21	0.1726	0.2114	-17.66	26431	Downward Expansion	-75	48
2025-02-14	0.1899	0.2137	-12.33	3605	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2025-02-07	0.1899	0.2157	-11.80	214277	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-01-31	0.1813	0.2174	-16.07	3357	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2025-01-24	0.1813	0.2184	-14.89	6938	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2025-01-17	0.1813	0.2198	-14.00	7053	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2025-01-10	0.1899	0.22	-9.72	11180	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2025-01-03	0.1726	0.2206	-17.41	994	Downward Expansion	-86	86
2024-12-27	0.1899	0.2219	-9.31	12595	Downward Expansion	-71	75
2024-12-20	0.1899	0.2222	-7.07	6970	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2024-12-13	0.2028	0.2213	-3.40	125000	Downward Expansion	-32	47
2024-12-06	0.1985	0.2199	-6.74	2404	Deceleration	-37	39
2024-11-29	0.1985	0.2186	-7.02	5618	Deceleration	-37	27
2024-11-22	0.2158	0.2175	1.54	37298	Deceleration	-13	11
2024-11-15	0.2201	0.2165	4.93	11465	Deceleration	6	9
2024-11-08	0.2115	0.215	0.89	10800	Deceleration	-19	17
2024-11-01	0.2158	0.2141	5.10	106300	Deceleration	1	14
2024-10-25	0.2201	0.212	6.27	72332	Deceleration	3	18
2024-10-18	0.2158	0.2108	3.17	228136	Deceleration	2	24
2024-10-11	0.2115	0.2098	2.16	3332	Deceleration	-1	17
2024-10-04	0.2201	0.2089	7.45	19577	Deceleration	27	15
2024-09-27	0.1985	0.2067	-3.83	173668	Upward Expansion	20	17
2024-09-20	0.2589	0.2064	25.28	159324	Upward Expansion	64	49
2024-09-13	0.2658	0.2037	30.89	65098	Upward Expansion	70	49
2024-09-06	0.2417	0.2002	21.27	146608	Upward Expansion	57	42
2024-08-30	0.2497	0.198	24.95	107273	Upward Expansion	67	48
2024-08-23	0.2417	0.1954	22.88	13709	Upward Expansion	63	49
2024-08-16	0.2376	0.1932	22.51	2	Upward Expansion	63	54
2024-08-09	0.2376	0.1907	26.46	34	Upward Expansion	66	77
2024-08-02	0.2417	0.1881	26.96	2041	Upward Expansion	69	83
2024-07-26	0.2417	0.1854	28.40	1704	Upward Expansion	70	81
2024-07-19	0.2497	0.183	32.79	23	Upward Expansion	83	85
2024-07-12	0.2417	0.1803	29.57	341948	Upward Expansion	83	61
2024-07-05	0.2095	0.1779	14.99	2060	Upward Expansion	63	65
2024-06-28	0.2256	0.177	24.76	479076	Upward Expansion	77	76
2024-06-21	0.1853	0.1751	2.72	31282	Upward Expansion	57	67
2024-06-14	0.2095	0.1749	17.35	10000	Upward Expansion	74	79
2024-06-07	0.2095	0.1736	15.69	204525	Balance	70	61
2024-05-31	0.2014	0.1728	13.91	15245	Balance	50	19
2024-05-24	0.1611	0.1715	-9.16	121230	Balance	-55	46
2024-05-17	0.1611	0.1725	-10.55	15	Balance	-42	34
2024-05-10	0.1611	0.1725	-10.11	160772	Balance	-16	11
2024-05-03	0.1651	0.1724	-6.70	42508	Balance	20	10
2024-04-26	0.1853	0.1732	5.16	13673299	Balance	53	22
2024-04-19	0.1732	0.1732	-1.57	6000	Balance	5	4
2024-04-12	0.1853	0.1736	2.02	6219	Balance	28	15
2024-04-05	0.1531	0.1728	-15.43	4007	Balance	-27	18
2024-03-29	0.1853	0.1728	0.37	4347	Balance	59	34
2024-03-22	0.1853	0.1717	1.90	0	Balance	60	43
2024-03-15	0.1853	0.1705	2.94	10077	Balance	53	31
2024-03-08	0.1531	0.1693	-17.07	2200	Balance	-5	3
2024-03-01	0.1893	0.1692	3.32	4000	Balance	73	55
2024-02-23	0.1772	0.1677	-2.11	2500	Balance	35	20
2024-02-16	0.1611	0.1672	-11.37	2021	Balance	3	9
2024-02-09	0.1772	0.1674	-2.71	475425	Balance	41	23
2024-02-02	0.1692	0.167	-7.88	6833	Balance	19	11
2024-01-26	0.1772	0.1676	-1.81	116259	Balance	-0	13
2024-01-19	0.1611	0.1669	-9.34	0	Balance	-20	29
2024-01-12	0.1611	0.1668	-10.61	3333	Balance	-17	25
2024-01-05	0.1611	0.167	-10.89	91168	Balance	2	8
2023-12-29	0.1692	0.167	-8.10	2	Balance	25	11
2023-12-22	0.1692	0.1676	-7.39	0	Balance	27	13
2023-12-15	0.1692	0.1681	-7.08	30852	Balance	32	15
2023-12-08	0.1813	0.1685	2.68	7151	Balance	49	22
2023-12-01	0.1692	0.1684	-2.34	129325	Balance	35	18
2023-11-24	0.1813	0.1686	5.22	78561	Balance	48	22
2023-11-17	0.1692	0.1685	-1.98	34573	Balance	15	14
2023-11-10	0.1853	0.1693	8.12	2544	Balance	29	18
2023-11-03	0.1611	0.1685	-6.12	22191	Rotation Up	-13	10
2023-10-27	0.1933	0.169	14.61	108169	Rotation Up	34	24
2023-10-20	0.1611	0.1685	-5.44	12064	Rotation Up	6	14

Price vs TrendBelow-12.3%

Trend directionRising+1.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+11.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-46.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-33.7%

Price momentumPositive+2.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.74×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-38 / ±100

-4.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

56 /100

-7.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SEG Directional State ↗ SEG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance21

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration48

Rotation Down69

Downward Expansion61

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 34%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 10%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-11	2026-10-09	Developing	-5.6%
Deceleration	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	-6.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-08-07	Developing	+7.0%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-05-15	Established	+12.5%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-12-12	Developing	+11.5%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-07	New	-7.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-10-10	Established	+3.0%
Deceleration	2025-05-30	2025-06-27	Developing	+14.9%
Rotation Up	2025-04-04	2025-05-23	Developing	-6.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-03-28	Established	-10.6%
Deceleration	2024-10-04	2024-12-06	Developing	-9.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-06-14	2024-09-27	Established	-5.2%
Balance	2023-11-10	2024-06-07	Extended	+13.0%
Rotation Up	2023-10-06	2023-11-03	Developing	-14.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing32

Stage 2 · Advancing32

Stage 3 · Distribution61

Stage 4 · Declining68

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 78/100
Current Relative Strength: -5.73
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +2.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +4.7%
Communication Services regime cohort: 33th percentile3 in cohort

Test SEG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume7.13×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.74×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SEG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.2543falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.2918falling

Trend Reference AUD 0.2907-12.3% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.2284+11.7% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.19shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +9.0%

Annualized volatility +40.3%

From structural high -31.1%

From structural low +34.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	4	+2.2%-5.6% to +11.5%	+50.0%	+25.0%	-1.4%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	2	+7.1%+6.5% to +7.7%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+0.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+9.5%-4.3% to +23.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+5.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+4.3%+4.3% to +4.3%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+3.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SEG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map