Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Cyclical

1468 Stage Analysis

Chang-Ho Fibre Corporation

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close TWD 13.20Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 34−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 34/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -2.0%TWD 13.47 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	13.20	12.58	-21.66	243000	Deceleration	34	20
2026-09-25	13.20	12.57	-21.88	228000	Deceleration	34	19
2026-09-18	13.25	12.58	-21.29	343000	Deceleration	36	21
2026-09-11	13.15	12.58	-21.30	275084	Deceleration	38	23
2026-09-04	13.00	12.56	-23.94	573000	Upward Expansion	42	28
2026-08-28	13.30	12.56	-22.94	52001	Upward Expansion	58	43
2026-08-21	13.25	12.55	-22.51	63113	Upward Expansion	62	65
2026-08-14	13.30	12.51	-24.35	30000	Upward Expansion	65	76
2026-08-07	13.55	12.46	-21.36	40111	Upward Expansion	69	81
2026-07-31	14.05	12.40	-17.61	44000	Rotation Up	86	85
2026-07-24	13.10	12.32	-25.19	32000	Rotation Up	41	58
2026-07-17	13.60	12.28	-21.73	79000	Rotation Up	41	47
2026-07-10	12.20	12.22	-34.88	0	Balance	-30	13
2026-07-03	12.25	12.21	-37.69	264001	Deceleration	-42	22
2026-06-26	11.85	12.20	-37.80	205000	Deceleration	-54	37
2026-06-19	12.00	12.18	-40.59	217112	Deceleration	-22	21
2026-06-12	11.90	12.16	-39.07	257122	Deceleration	-25	20
2026-06-05	12.05	12.15	-40.56	289000	Deceleration	-20	13
2026-05-29	12.05	12.13	-41.13	264250	Deceleration	-10	6
2026-05-22	12.05	12.11	-38.69	217001	Deceleration	18	9
2026-05-15	12.10	12.10	-37.74	229000	Deceleration	23	11
2026-05-08	12.45	12.11	-37.57	257001	Deceleration	30	14
2026-05-01	12.05	12.10	-36.33	188382	Deceleration	9	6
2026-04-24	12.25	12.12	-36.17	217001	Deceleration	-8	10
2026-04-17	12.10	12.17	-34.25	446000	Deceleration	-13	19
2026-04-10	12.40	12.22	-30.84	239001	Deceleration	-12	24
2026-04-03	11.60	12.27	-30.41	235015	Deceleration	-28	35
2026-03-27	11.80	12.34	-31.11	259001	Deceleration	-20	24
2026-03-20	12.00	12.40	-31.56	258000	Rotation Up	-1	8
2026-03-13	12.20	12.48	-30.84	252000	Rotation Up	25	29
2026-03-06	13.15	12.54	-26.61	216020	Rotation Up	40	62
2026-02-27	13.50	12.58	-29.13	236001	Rotation Up	45	68
2026-02-13	13.00	12.62	-28.54	133000	Rotation Up	32	60
2026-02-06	12.70	12.66	-26.64	209000	Rotation Up	21	41
2026-01-30	12.90	12.71	-26.53	335022	Rotation Up	12	29
2026-01-23	13.20	12.77	-24.95	286001	Rotation Up	14	18
2026-01-16	12.00	12.80	-30.90	181000	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2026-01-09	11.70	12.88	-30.58	183015	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2026-01-02	11.70	12.96	-28.80	157000	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2025-12-26	11.80	13.06	-26.68	147000	Downward Expansion	-41	30
2025-12-19	11.80	13.14	-24.81	185000	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-12-12	12.00	13.22	-25.37	174001	Downward Expansion	-47	38
2025-12-05	11.85	13.29	-26.23	185081	Downward Expansion	-52	47
2025-11-28	11.85	13.37	-25.85	565001	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2025-11-21	11.30	13.42	-26.63	178000	Downward Expansion	-72	66
2025-11-14	11.40	13.49	-29.08	196001	Downward Expansion	-71	72
2025-11-07	11.45	13.55	-29.90	188000	Downward Expansion	-74	85
2025-10-31	11.65	13.59	-30.64	246000	Downward Expansion	-72	88
2025-10-24	11.35	13.66	-31.18	159000	Downward Expansion	-87	94
2025-10-17	11.90	13.74	-27.71	243038	Downward Expansion	-83	91
2025-10-10	12.35	13.82	-25.42	115000	Downward Expansion	-76	84
2025-10-03	12.15	13.87	-25.60	366001	Downward Expansion	-87	83
2025-09-26	12.65	13.94	-19.42	302000	Rotation Down	-82	67
2025-09-19	13.60	14.01	-13.74	310030	Rotation Down	-23	41
2025-09-12	13.75	14.00	-12.69	351059	Deceleration	-18	34
2025-09-05	13.85	13.97	-8.82	235050	Deceleration	-14	27
2025-08-29	13.50	13.94	-10.38	213002	Upward Expansion	-26	25
2025-08-22	13.70	13.92	-7.54	227000	Upward Expansion	10	10
2025-08-15	14.30	13.88	-5.96	180013	Upward Expansion	37	21
2025-08-08	14.25	13.84	-5.31	191001	Upward Expansion	40	24
2025-08-01	14.35	13.80	-2.51	168000	Upward Expansion	51	28
2025-07-25	14.50	13.78	-1.31	173000	Upward Expansion	56	35
2025-07-18	14.40	13.72	-2.11	187160	Upward Expansion	53	31
2025-07-11	14.20	13.71	-0.84	177000	Upward Expansion	50	28
2025-07-04	14.50	13.73	2.09	177000	Upward Expansion	56	32
2025-06-27	14.35	13.73	0.87	172000	Upward Expansion	54	32
2025-06-20	14.15	13.74	1.83	188062	Upward Expansion	53	40
2025-06-13	14.30	13.75	2.75	190001	Rotation Up	56	52
2025-06-06	14.45	13.77	5.75	216000	Rotation Up	36	51
2025-05-30	14.30	13.77	6.14	145000	Balance	32	38
2025-05-23	14.20	13.78	3.92	179107	Balance	27	24
2025-05-16	14.20	13.78	3.03	180188	Balance	16	14
2025-05-09	14.10	13.79	6.81	185001	Balance	-7	4
2025-05-02	13.60	13.80	3.71	170000	Downward Expansion	-38	28
2025-04-25	13.20	13.83	5.45	188000	Downward Expansion	-41	33
2025-04-18	13.20	13.85	8.24	203533	Balance	-41	30
2025-04-11	12.70	13.87	3.50	165000	Balance	-51	27
2025-04-04	13.60	13.90	1.54	122000	Rotation Up	10	12
2025-03-28	13.90	13.92	2.20	206000	Rotation Up	18	26
2025-03-21	14.20	13.95	1.46	192415	Rotation Up	21	30
2025-03-14	14.05	13.96	1.15	194025	Downward Expansion	15	25
2025-03-07	14.25	13.97	-0.47	305102	Downward Expansion	-9	20
2025-02-28	14.55	13.98	-0.88	290126	Downward Expansion	-10	14
2025-02-21	13.30	13.98	-12.33	177203	Downward Expansion	-48	38
2025-02-14	13.05	14.02	-12.40	168655	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2025-02-07	12.90	14.09	-15.25	179319	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2025-01-24	12.75	14.16	-17.11	100000	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2025-01-17	12.75	14.24	-16.28	177000	Downward Expansion	-76	80
2025-01-10	12.95	14.32	-14.97	192010	Downward Expansion	-74	80
2025-01-03	13.05	14.38	-14.66	154141	Downward Expansion	-76	77
2024-12-27	13.70	14.42	-12.59	221241	Downward Expansion	-57	63
2024-12-20	12.90	14.45	-15.55	187222	Downward Expansion	-80	66
2024-12-13	14.05	14.50	-10.80	226002	Balance	-43	18
2024-12-06	14.60	14.49	-8.59	192001	Balance	10	15
2024-11-29	14.50	14.46	-5.97	200010	Balance	12	22
2024-11-22	14.75	14.42	-7.46	225015	Balance	28	29
2024-11-15	14.55	14.34	-8.52	229001	Balance	38	29
2024-11-08	14.70	14.25	-11.14	207001	Balance	46	29
2024-11-01	14.45	14.21	-10.06	153000	Balance	26	16
2024-10-25	14.55	14.19	-12.01	181000	Balance	39	21
2024-10-18	14.45	14.16	-13.49	233000	Balance	34	20
2024-10-11	14.30	14.13	-12.54	169001	Balance	26	14
2024-10-04	14.40	14.15	-9.92	127001	Balance	21	12
2024-09-27	14.50	14.16	-11.69	214000	Rotation Down	-9	23
2024-09-20	14.00	14.16	-12.59	178083	Rotation Down	-17	33
2024-09-13	13.65	14.17	-13.60	216015	Balance	-25	31
2024-09-06	13.70	14.20	-12.34	218000	Balance	-24	19
2024-08-30	14.30	14.23	-12.31	191219	Balance	14	11
2024-08-23	14.55	14.26	-10.66	224001	Balance	29	16
2024-08-16	14.45	14.22	-12.30	217000	Balance	30	19
2024-08-09	14.40	14.19	-9.33	250000	Rotation Up	33	21
2024-08-02	14.70	14.21	-8.44	226000	Rotation Up	39	20
2024-07-26	14.35	14.23	-12.82	104000	Rotation Up	44	27
2024-07-19	14.55	14.27	-14.85	204001	Rotation Up	32	32
2024-07-12	15.15	14.29	-15.65	207000	Rotation Up	36	50
2024-07-05	15.25	14.28	-14.38	207226	Rotation Up	41	53
2024-06-28	15.00	14.26	-14.48	206000	Rotation Up	29	46
2024-06-21	15.10	14.23	-15.39	236000	Rotation Up	32	45
2024-06-14	14.65	14.20	-15.78	168017	Balance	22	28
2024-06-07	14.55	14.17	-14.49	199001	Balance	20	26
2024-05-31	14.40	14.12	-13.18	307001	Balance	6	19
2024-05-24	14.40	14.07	-15.23	358001	Downward Expansion	-16	19
2024-05-17	13.85	14.01	-17.80	314003	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2024-05-10	13.70	13.96	-17.09	312001	Downward Expansion	-60	61
2024-05-03	13.35	13.94	-18.25	441367	Rotation Down	-63	71
2024-04-26	12.15	13.93	-25.27	236000	Rotation Down	-51	69
2024-04-19	11.85	13.96	-25.40	357003	Rotation Down	-57	66
2024-04-12	13.60	14.00	-20.03	271000	Balance	-19	32
2024-04-05	13.80	14.00	-17.85	153101	Balance	-13	22
2024-03-29	13.75	13.98	-18.57	231000	Deceleration	4	10
2024-03-22	13.60	13.96	-19.76	316001	Deceleration	1	4
2024-03-15	14.75	13.92	-11.14	216000	Deceleration	40	21
2024-03-08	14.60	13.86	-12.89	251010	Deceleration	37	18
2024-03-01	14.50	13.81	-10.02	227100	Deceleration	43	23
2024-02-23	14.45	13.77	-10.46	256001	Deceleration	44	27
2024-02-16	14.40	13.75	-9.72	107000	Deceleration	33	17
2024-02-09	14.80	13.74	-4.88	96000	Deceleration	36	24
2024-02-02	15.10	13.77	-2.99	370288	Deceleration	45	29
2024-01-26	13.55	13.78	-12.90	192000	Rotation Up	21	21
2024-01-19	13.35	13.88	-13.21	319015	Rotation Up	30	27
2024-01-12	15.05	13.96	-2.00	198000	Rotation Up	39	57
2024-01-05	15.30	14.00	-0.58	143000	Rotation Up	44	71
2023-12-29	15.45	14.01	-2.08	209000	Rotation Up	53	76
2023-12-22	15.25	14.00	-1.67	240000	Rotation Up	55	75
2023-12-15	14.85	14.00	-4.77	219000	Rotation Up	43	69
2023-12-08	14.55	14.00	-5.26	203000	Rotation Up	40	48
2023-12-01	14.30	14.00	-7.31	181000	Downward Expansion	16	33
2023-11-24	14.20	14.00	-7.28	221045	Downward Expansion	11	22
2023-11-17	13.70	13.99	-10.27	222001	Downward Expansion	-30	22
2023-11-10	12.95	14.02	-12.75	214001	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2023-11-03	13.05	14.10	-11.53	271310	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2023-10-27	12.50	14.19	-13.62	222000	Downward Expansion	-74	78
2023-10-20	12.50	14.30	-15.56	226003	Downward Expansion	-79	77
2023-10-13	12.90	14.39	-14.96	144000	Downward Expansion	-66	51
2023-10-06	13.00	14.44	-13.18	181000	Downward Expansion	-52	42
2023-09-29	13.20	14.50	-11.14	150000	Downward Expansion	-46	38

Price vs TrendAbove+5.0%

Trend directionRising+2.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-2.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+7.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-21.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+16.0%

Price momentumPositive+13.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.82×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

34 / ±100

-7.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

20 /100

-8.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1468 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance50

Rotation Up27

Upward Expansion52

Deceleration92

Rotation Down23

Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 21%Upward Expansion 10%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	+0.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-09-04	Developing	-4.1%
Rotation Up	2026-07-17	2026-07-31	New	+3.3%
Balance	2026-07-10	2026-07-10	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-07-03	Established	+3.8%
Rotation Up	2026-01-23	2026-03-20	Developing	-9.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-03	2026-01-16	Established	-1.2%
Rotation Down	2025-09-19	2025-09-26	New	-7.0%
Deceleration	2025-09-05	2025-09-12	New	-0.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-08-29	Developing	-4.6%
Rotation Up	2025-06-06	2025-06-13	New	-1.0%
Balance	2025-05-09	2025-05-30	New	+1.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-05-02	New	+3.0%
Balance	2025-04-11	2025-04-18	New	+3.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing52

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution46

Stage 4 · Declining36

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 11/100
Current Relative Strength: -21.66
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +13.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -35.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 87th percentile46 in cohort

Test 1468 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.31×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.82×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1468 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 13.19falling

Slow Activity TWD 12.86rising

Trend Reference TWD 12.58+5.0% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 13.47-2.0% close margin

Structural low TWD 11.30shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.4%

Annualized volatility +24.0%

From structural high -6.0%

From structural low +18.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	-2.6%-12.3% to +13.3%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-9.5%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+0.4%-14.4% to +11.4%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-3.3%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-1.2%-11.9% to +24.8%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-22.5%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-1.4%-5.1% to +27.8%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-21.6%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1468 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map