Weekly structural research · MEX · Healthcare

LLY Stage Analysis

Eli Lilly and Company

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close MXN 20,851.16Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 55−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 35/100directional strength

Maturity 46/100lifecycle context

Confidence 63/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +31.7%MXN 15,830.94 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	20,851.16	18,896.82	15.53	1435	Deceleration	55	35
2026-09-25	20,884.08	18,786.99	15.48	5241	Deceleration	43	27
2026-09-18	19,870.00	18,690.42	13.52	2266	Deceleration	13	24
2026-09-11	18,965.00	18,604.86	8.07	5593	Deceleration	6	14
2026-09-04	19,374.00	18,564.31	9.34	781	Deceleration	41	31
2026-08-28	19,857.61	18,526.08	11.59	7466	Deceleration	46	41
2026-08-21	21,300.00	18,468.79	19.86	102	Deceleration	68	53
2026-08-14	20,163.17	18,394.27	16.64	68	Upward Expansion	46	42
2026-08-07	20,216.31	18,337.31	13.22	367	Upward Expansion	50	48
2026-07-31	19,871.93	18,311.93	12.12	127	Upward Expansion	62	58
2026-07-24	20,791.22	18,288.31	18.65	4370	Upward Expansion	64	82
2026-07-17	20,706.96	18,236.15	18.16	749	Upward Expansion	66	86
2026-07-10	20,679.03	18,189.12	18.71	1661	Upward Expansion	70	86
2026-07-03	21,029.00	18,108.14	20.14	0	Rotation Up	82	91
2026-06-26	21,142.75	18,021.08	21.05	1657	Rotation Up	61	81
2026-06-19	19,148.82	17,967.86	9.32	0	Rotation Up	31	69
2026-06-12	19,655.23	17,983.98	11.98	259	Rotation Up	39	70
2026-06-05	19,811.66	17,957.01	16.16	2924	Rotation Up	47	55
2026-05-29	19,166.38	17,866.47	8.75	3609	Downward Expansion	40	42
2026-05-22	18,489.70	17,762.37	5.54	890	Downward Expansion	-2	17
2026-05-15	17,512.20	17,656.19	0.75	876	Downward Expansion	-37	27
2026-05-08	16,377.37	17,564.14	-8.29	3799	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2026-05-01	16,345.09	17,534.02	-5.91	4957	Downward Expansion	-62	66
2026-04-24	15,432.79	17,504.71	-13.24	8846	Rotation Down	-77	71
2026-04-17	16,053.40	17,433.42	-11.06	8256	Rotation Down	-43	57
2026-04-10	16,219.39	17,362.32	-10.70	2174	Rotation Down	-43	59
2026-04-03	17,107.19	17,286.55	-5.78	973	Rotation Down	-33	46
2026-03-27	16,066.40	17,170.04	-7.86	474	Deceleration	-41	58
2026-03-20	16,198.40	17,088.61	-3.93	3172	Deceleration	-23	38
2026-03-13	17,618.22	16,989.54	1.56	258	Deceleration	3	16
2026-03-06	17,556.25	16,839.89	-1.57	937	Deceleration	2	17
2026-02-27	17,987.02	16,642.81	-5.45	783	Deceleration	12	19
2026-02-20	17,303.28	16,525.36	-9.76	791	Deceleration	5	18
2026-02-13	17,748.38	16,450.57	-8.09	18663	Deceleration	34	23
2026-02-06	18,227.14	16,342.29	-5.19	3210	Deceleration	40	24
2026-01-30	18,138.88	16,227.86	-1.76	3454	Upward Expansion	47	36
2026-01-23	19,064.54	16,106.77	1.89	2438	Upward Expansion	55	49
2026-01-16	18,454.40	15,964.43	-0.03	1576	Upward Expansion	63	57
2026-01-09	19,455.00	15,838.48	6.90	2993	Upward Expansion	71	66
2026-01-02	19,163.26	15,700.29	8.17	151	Upward Expansion	69	65
2025-12-26	19,226.28	15,550.87	5.81	600	Upward Expansion	71	64
2025-12-19	19,296.23	15,389.92	8.75	5059	Upward Expansion	74	68
2025-12-12	18,249.44	15,205.99	1.60	1779	Upward Expansion	67	81
2025-12-05	18,417.39	15,087.98	4.50	2268	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-11-28	19,546.19	14,953.83	10.24	1497	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-11-21	19,632.17	14,841.06	13.67	1640	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-11-14	18,846.32	14,760.82	8.43	10363	Rotation Up	95	97
2025-11-07	17,095.28	14,619.64	-3.26	2954	Rotation Up	60	75
2025-10-31	16,043.58	14,547.38	-8.70	2292	Rotation Up	45	61
2025-10-24	15,304.09	14,521.31	-11.05	1276	Rotation Up	25	37
2025-10-17	14,750.94	14,568.62	-15.64	4681	Rotation Up	14	24
2025-10-10	15,473.74	14,643.38	-10.43	5331	Downward Expansion	27	27
2025-10-03	15,465.64	14,664.08	-13.03	12419	Downward Expansion	-2	11
2025-09-26	13,294.05	14,738.49	-26.00	7989	Downward Expansion	-43	24
2025-09-19	13,920.63	14,916.91	-21.71	1703	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-09-12	13,946.16	15,049.90	-22.92	6191	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-09-05	13,611.75	15,157.44	-23.73	2275	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-08-29	13,623.55	15,307.36	-22.01	6214	Downward Expansion	-62	74
2025-08-22	13,226.49	15,419.72	-25.52	10796	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2025-08-15	13,128.74	15,508.19	-25.48	19104	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2025-08-08	11,643.78	15,576.20	-34.01	17977	Downward Expansion	-89	77
2025-08-01	14,463.33	15,736.57	-16.96	8060	Downward Expansion	-55	30
2025-07-25	15,059.64	15,794.98	-14.38	2335	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2025-07-18	14,500.07	15,820.93	-16.12	5909	Downward Expansion	-54	32
2025-07-11	14,794.20	15,851.36	-15.07	2882	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2025-07-04	14,506.31	15,889.51	-18.93	8994	Downward Expansion	-45	27
2025-06-27	14,794.20	15,966.98	-16.82	3215	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2025-06-20	14,676.10	16,012.87	-16.15	4727	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2025-06-13	15,309.01	16,033.81	-14.55	9305	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2025-06-06	14,680.74	16,030.71	-19.17	5312	Downward Expansion	-60	64
2025-05-30	14,397.89	16,107.64	-20.64	12695	Downward Expansion	-60	68
2025-05-23	13,778.15	16,183.76	-24.80	3942	Downward Expansion	-73	65
2025-05-16	14,709.23	16,320.93	-19.18	15626	Downward Expansion	-61	34
2025-05-09	14,392.85	16,438.48	-18.75	21144	Downward Expansion	-70	39
2025-05-02	16,163.16	16,556.83	-7.37	2392	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2025-04-25	17,225.13	16,587.68	-2.44	1060	Downward Expansion	-32	38
2025-04-18	14,610.74	16,590.99	-10.99	1037	Downward Expansion	-75	72
2025-04-11	14,927.58	16,700.85	-6.07	8155	Balance	-61	52
2025-04-04	15,261.42	16,802.43	-3.48	5486	Balance	-30	29
2025-03-28	16,723.44	16,895.98	2.83	632	Balance	-1	11
2025-03-21	16,993.56	16,958.22	6.08	599	Balance	10	10
2025-03-14	16,095.00	16,996.46	1.45	3369	Rotation Up	1	15
2025-03-07	17,697.82	17,034.30	11.38	6276	Rotation Up	26	53
2025-02-28	18,646.73	17,004.30	19.28	2228	Rotation Up	43	66
2025-02-21	17,910.10	16,892.36	12.42	4065	Rotation Up	32	51
2025-02-14	17,172.47	16,789.83	7.83	1552	Balance	17	27
2025-02-07	18,109.48	16,735.13	17.06	5365	Balance	30	22
2025-01-31	16,994.13	16,690.23	14.21	2811	Downward Expansion	-22	12
2025-01-24	15,880.77	16,675.20	7.37	3237	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2025-01-17	15,169.04	16,701.80	6.32	1215	Downward Expansion	-65	35
2025-01-10	16,454.89	16,731.47	16.98	1659	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2025-01-03	16,215.58	16,728.91	17.90	930	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-12-27	15,838.07	16,711.67	15.53	1519	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2024-12-20	15,413.05	16,645.26	12.93	9543	Deceleration	-39	28
2024-12-13	15,938.74	16,583.75	13.31	2372	Rotation Down	-22	28
2024-12-06	16,830.22	16,479.10	21.44	3499	Rotation Down	-21	41
2024-11-29	16,171.11	16,344.99	21.48	3922	Rotation Down	-21	47
2024-11-22	15,304.11	16,223.13	14.69	3747	Deceleration	-35	41
2024-11-15	15,215.96	16,132.64	14.86	1541	Deceleration	-15	24
2024-11-08	16,988.71	16,039.26	25.84	7866	Deceleration	34	18
2024-11-01	16,681.58	15,894.70	27.72	4866	Deceleration	35	25
2024-10-25	17,893.16	15,764.92	35.28	837	Deceleration	57	40
2024-10-18	18,235.93	15,598.75	36.07	702	Deceleration	54	38
2024-10-11	17,943.12	15,419.03	36.78	585	Deceleration	48	34
2024-10-04	17,088.69	15,241.57	30.93	2538	Upward Expansion	45	35
2024-09-27	17,324.46	15,099.16	33.57	2494	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-09-20	17,906.46	14,961.31	41.16	1743	Upward Expansion	64	64
2024-09-13	17,975.10	14,801.48	44.01	792	Upward Expansion	66	81
2024-09-06	18,068.04	14,647.61	49.17	3035	Upward Expansion	68	84
2024-08-30	18,590.47	14,469.94	50.16	771	Upward Expansion	81	84
2024-08-23	18,140.88	14,233.56	47.04	11156	Upward Expansion	82	63
2024-08-16	17,230.16	13,988.59	40.06	3306	Deceleration	75	49
2024-08-09	16,797.63	13,775.08	40.92	2456	Deceleration	61	37
2024-08-02	15,288.75	13,572.16	31.91	2516	Upward Expansion	46	35
2024-07-26	14,834.03	13,409.12	28.27	3715	Upward Expansion	52	47
2024-07-19	15,531.43	13,243.81	33.82	1389	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-07-12	16,762.66	13,048.45	42.92	15434	Upward Expansion	76	73
2024-07-05	16,543.18	12,817.56	50.33	653	Upward Expansion	74	91
2024-06-28	16,678.82	12,611.35	53.69	633	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-06-21	16,059.19	12,391.05	49.34	754	Upward Expansion	85	95
2024-06-14	16,377.94	12,198.56	56.30	1732	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-06-07	15,698.44	11,990.59	50.18	2509	Upward Expansion	96	97
2024-05-31	13,845.82	11,815.58	29.12	482	Upward Expansion	82	80
2024-05-24	13,567.56	11,685.97	27.35	872	Deceleration	77	54
2024-05-17	12,799.50	11,570.22	16.84	929	Deceleration	54	34
2024-05-10	12,806.82	11,498.90	17.56	1729	Deceleration	43	26
2024-05-03	12,515.29	11,439.95	17.05	1580	Deceleration	37	23
2024-04-26	12,589.46	11,360.86	17.28	1040	Deceleration	42	30
2024-04-19	12,414.60	11,259.21	20.82	354	Deceleration	45	36
2024-04-12	12,651.78	11,159.38	22.83	2542	Upward Expansion	48	44
2024-04-05	12,788.29	11,075.74	22.18	376	Upward Expansion	51	48
2024-03-29	12,908.09	10,982.45	26.17	10	Upward Expansion	65	56
2024-03-22	12,844.25	10,868.76	28.77	743	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-03-15	12,619.43	10,747.46	28.92	905	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-03-08	12,816.31	10,635.72	35.57	700	Upward Expansion	68	84
2024-03-01	13,188.95	10,509.43	39.92	1099	Upward Expansion	76	91
2024-02-23	13,111.58	10,324.50	38.41	712	Upward Expansion	84	94
2024-02-16	13,358.81	10,141.66	41.79	4929	Upward Expansion	97	99
2024-02-09	12,738.02	9,955.30	36.67	2589	Upward Expansion	97	98
2024-02-02	11,499.19	9,782.92	22.91	1135	Upward Expansion	85	85
2024-01-26	10,791.86	9,657.30	19.26	83	Upward Expansion	66	72
2024-01-19	10,824.83	9,563.82	23.74	657	Upward Expansion	69	60
2024-01-12	10,709.91	9,461.81	23.21	1285	Deceleration	67	36
2024-01-05	10,397.43	9,360.98	19.35	1831	Deceleration	33	18
2023-12-29	9,874.74	9,271.01	11.68	501	Deceleration	19	15
2023-12-22	9,670.91	9,196.29	9.87	639	Deceleration	19	14
2023-12-15	9,835.76	9,124.63	12.50	1434	Deceleration	40	26
2023-12-08	10,356.90	9,057.94	24.89	247	Deceleration	49	35
2023-12-01	10,069.95	8,967.52	23.28	1932	Deceleration	44	35
2023-11-24	10,284.33	8,886.35	28.98	73	Deceleration	48	37
2023-11-17	10,138.90	8,783.79	28.73	975	Upward Expansion	48	39
2023-11-10	10,448.24	8,674.77	37.34	1234	Upward Expansion	68	57
2023-11-03	9,957.28	8,551.33	32.02	158	Upward Expansion	63	60
2023-10-27	10,095.19	8,440.33	41.19	693	Upward Expansion	65	65
2023-10-20	10,659.89	8,309.14	52.48	3520	Upward Expansion	77	70
2023-10-13	11,038.50	8,160.32	56.01	2170	Upward Expansion	92	75

Price vs TrendAbove+10.3%

Trend directionRising+3.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+31.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-9.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+15.5%

Relative strength directionWeakening-4.6%

Price momentumPositive+21.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.76×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

55 / ±100

+14.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

35 /100

+3.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

LLY Directional State ↗ LLY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance32

Rotation Up43

Upward Expansion63

Deceleration67

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion17

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 4%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 34%Deceleration 25%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-21	2026-10-02	Developing	-2.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-08-14	Developing	-2.5%
Rotation Up	2026-06-05	2026-07-03	Developing	+6.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-05-29	Developing	+17.3%
Rotation Down	2026-04-03	2026-04-24	New	-9.8%
Deceleration	2026-02-06	2026-03-27	Developing	-11.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-01-30	Developing	-7.6%
Rotation Up	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	+27.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-10-10	Established	+5.9%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-04-11	New	-12.2%
Rotation Up	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-10.1%
Balance	2025-02-07	2025-02-14	New	-5.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-01-31	Developing	+7.3%
Deceleration	2024-12-20	2024-12-20	New	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing6

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution76

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 78/100
Current Relative Strength: 15.53
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +21.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +29.3%
Healthcare regime cohort: 25th percentile8 in cohort

Test LLY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.73×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.76×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore LLY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 20,313.74rising

Slow Activity MXN 19,726.32rising

Trend Reference MXN 18,896.82+10.3% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 15,830.94+31.7% close margin

Structural low MXN 14,913.52shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.5%

Annualized volatility +29.3%

From structural high -4.2%

From structural low +42.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	20	+2.8%-6.7% to +28.0%	+55.0%	+55.0%	+0.6%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	+10.5%-10.1% to +30.3%	+90.9%	+90.9%	+16.5%	+18.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+19.7%-19.9% to +50.5%	+85.7%	+85.7%	+16.4%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+41.8%+28.3% to +50.1%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+41.1%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

LLY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map