Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

LIT Stage Analysis

Livium Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.007Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -61−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 44/100directional strength

Maturity 64/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -56.8%AUD 0.0162 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.007	0.008617	-25.96	16482891	Downward Expansion	-61	44
2026-10-02	0.007	0.008683	-26.80	7427458	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2026-09-25	0.007	0.00875	-27.60	8154039	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2026-09-18	0.007	0.00885	-29.25	7060871	Downward Expansion	-67	71
2026-09-11	0.007	0.00895	-30.13	4765550	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2026-09-04	0.007	0.00905	-32.68	1844681	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2026-08-28	0.007	0.009183	-33.96	902036	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2026-08-21	0.008	0.009317	-24.81	530147	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-08-14	0.008	0.00945	-25.69	3382094	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2026-08-07	0.008	0.00955	-27.30	4541956	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2026-07-31	0.008	0.00965	-25.31	12288821	Downward Expansion	-64	40
2026-07-24	0.009	0.00975	-14.53	394111	Downward Expansion	-52	31
2026-07-17	0.008	0.009783	-24.39	1127793	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2026-07-10	0.009	0.00985	-15.50	548143	Downward Expansion	-54	46
2026-07-03	0.009	0.009883	-15.91	1124288	Downward Expansion	-57	53
2026-06-26	0.008	0.009933	-24.74	1278814	Downward Expansion	-70	61
2026-06-19	0.009	0.01	-16.06	2380203	Balance	-54	47
2026-06-12	0.009	0.0101	-15.88	3681732	Balance	-54	41
2026-06-05	0.009	0.0102	-14.18	12928580	Balance	-44	29
2026-05-29	0.0095	0.0102	-10.53	439727	Balance	-37	22
2026-05-22	0.01	0.0103	-5.07	4008856	Balance	-29	17
2026-05-15	0.01	0.0104	-4.84	5202837	Balance	-26	11
2026-05-08	0.009	0.0105	-15.52	10525694	Balance	-37	19
2026-05-01	0.01	0.0107	-5.90	4347421	Balance	-15	22
2026-04-24	0.011	0.0108	3.03	3368205	Balance	-11	19
2026-04-17	0.011	0.011	1.58	13000325	Downward Expansion	-16	15
2026-04-10	0.011	0.011	1.55	26032436	Downward Expansion	-29	22
2026-04-03	0.009	0.011	-13.15	6599729	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2026-03-27	0.009	0.0112	-12.68	6277164	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2026-03-20	0.008	0.0112	-21.66	4892394	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2026-03-13	0.009	0.0113	-14.05	22927920	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2026-03-06	0.009	0.0114	-16.47	8921552	Downward Expansion	-70	66
2026-02-27	0.01	0.0114	-11.21	7923332	Downward Expansion	-54	49
2026-02-20	0.01	0.0114	-10.60	6312481	Balance	-55	40
2026-02-13	0.01	0.0114	-9.78	7394484	Balance	-53	22
2026-02-06	0.011	0.0115	1.18	14831502	Balance	-26	15
2026-01-30	0.011	0.0114	-1.41	9301398	Balance	-27	18
2026-01-23	0.012	0.0114	6.82	6827322	Balance	7	12
2026-01-16	0.011	0.0113	-3.37	22178199	Balance	-10	8
2026-01-09	0.011	0.0112	-2.32	14290216	Rotation Down	-24	18
2026-01-02	0.011	0.0111	-3.39	2708667	Rotation Down	-28	32
2025-12-26	0.01	0.0111	-13.69	3715341	Rotation Down	-25	41
2025-12-19	0.01	0.011	-13.43	6890526	Rotation Down	-26	38
2025-12-12	0.01	0.011	-15.49	22739339	Balance	-27	34
2025-12-05	0.0105	0.011	-11.74	4462208	Balance	-20	19
2025-11-28	0.0115	0.011	-4.18	11627749	Balance	5	15
2025-11-21	0.011	0.0109	-7.37	13771313	Balance	4	16
2025-11-14	0.011	0.0108	-10.72	20201074	Balance	15	20
2025-11-07	0.011	0.0107	-13.43	19903599	Upward Expansion	22	18
2025-10-31	0.0115	0.0106	-11.99	27360476	Upward Expansion	38	22
2025-10-24	0.012	0.0106	-11.06	55302820	Upward Expansion	57	39
2025-10-17	0.014	0.0104	2.58	30870256	Upward Expansion	62	69
2025-10-10	0.015	0.0103	9.01	21908606	Upward Expansion	71	74
2025-10-03	0.014	0.0101	0.15	15846159	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-09-26	0.015	0.009983	8.38	22147178	Upward Expansion	76	64
2025-09-19	0.013	0.009883	-6.89	25546929	Balance	65	43
2025-09-12	0.011	0.009917	-22.91	125785858	Balance	51	32
2025-09-05	0.012	0.00995	-17.30	7876225	Balance	63	45
2025-08-29	0.011	0.01	-26.05	28049727	Balance	26	20
2025-08-22	0.011	0.0102	-27.16	7389787	Balance	29	29
2025-08-15	0.011	0.0104	-27.96	39841196	Balance	27	26
2025-08-08	0.01	0.0105	-34.48	12439732	Balance	-6	15
2025-08-01	0.011	0.0107	-27.97	6264078	Balance	1	13
2025-07-25	0.01	0.011	-35.52	8007220	Balance	-13	14
2025-07-18	0.011	0.0112	-31.01	7153575	Balance	-5	7
2025-07-11	0.009	0.0114	-43.36	4853138	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2025-07-04	0.01	0.0117	-38.41	19363451	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2025-06-27	0.0085	0.0119	-47.78	15411937	Downward Expansion	-60	40
2025-06-20	0.009	0.0123	-45.38	16103142	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2025-06-13	0.009	0.0126	-46.44	42059661	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2025-06-06	0.009	0.0129	-47.21	7078570	Downward Expansion	-44	28
2025-05-30	0.0095	0.0133	-44.93	3942668	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2025-05-23	0.01	0.0137	-42.73	16158419	Downward Expansion	-47	38
2025-05-16	0.01	0.014	-43.80	19176187	Downward Expansion	-50	46
2025-05-09	0.008	0.0144	-55.33	14823000	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2025-05-02	0.0085	0.0148	-53.66	6270105	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2025-04-25	0.008	0.0153	-55.92	14779666	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2025-04-18	0.009	0.0157	-50.58	4921745	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2025-04-11	0.009	0.0161	-50.51	26109274	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2025-04-04	0.009	0.0165	-51.64	24232345	Downward Expansion	-70	85
2025-03-28	0.009	0.0168	-54.47	4624675	Downward Expansion	-73	88
2025-03-21	0.009	0.0172	-55.07	10441743	Downward Expansion	-80	90
2025-03-14	0.009	0.0176	-55.14	19554363	Downward Expansion	-86	86
2025-03-07	0.011	0.018	-47.24	48737603	Downward Expansion	-79	79
2025-02-28	0.012	0.0183	-44.86	37666373	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2025-02-21	0.014	0.0186	-37.54	5449458	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2025-02-14	0.012	0.0189	-48.81	12115327	Downward Expansion	-90	85
2025-02-07	0.015	0.0192	-36.73	8214794	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2025-01-31	0.015	0.0195	-37.76	7901574	Downward Expansion	-76	76
2025-01-24	0.016	0.0196	-33.43	5040957	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2025-01-17	0.016	0.0197	-33.51	10279334	Downward Expansion	-71	63
2025-01-10	0.016	0.0198	-34.24	8321008	Downward Expansion	-71	48
2025-01-03	0.018	0.02	-26.69	4433937	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-12-27	0.017	0.0203	-31.66	2688617	Downward Expansion	-69	70
2024-12-20	0.018	0.0206	-26.78	7996402	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2024-12-13	0.017	0.0209	-33.50	9343665	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2024-12-06	0.017	0.0212	-35.29	10339294	Downward Expansion	-77	72
2024-11-29	0.019	0.0216	-28.75	4271850	Downward Expansion	-59	54
2024-11-22	0.018	0.0219	-32.91	7381696	Balance	-69	52
2024-11-15	0.02	0.0222	-25.43	6484039	Balance	-50	30
2024-11-08	0.02	0.0225	-26.51	8820240	Balance	-51	28
2024-11-01	0.021	0.0228	-22.22	7757144	Balance	-21	12
2024-10-25	0.02	0.0231	-27.53	7901578	Downward Expansion	-42	20
2024-10-18	0.021	0.0234	-25.47	21243213	Downward Expansion	-20	12
2024-10-11	0.022	0.0236	-22.16	4625602	Downward Expansion	-33	19
2024-10-04	0.021	0.0238	-25.88	4059461	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2024-09-27	0.021	0.024	-27.26	8496893	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2024-09-20	0.02	0.0242	-31.55	4408366	Downward Expansion	-59	37
2024-09-13	0.021	0.0245	-28.24	5897892	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-09-06	0.02	0.0248	-31.77	21625280	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2024-08-30	0.021	0.0251	-29.99	5900748	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2024-08-23	0.02	0.0253	-33.66	5204386	Downward Expansion	-65	54
2024-08-16	0.02	0.0256	-34.27	5405497	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2024-08-09	0.021	0.0259	-30.26	4610171	Downward Expansion	-49	34
2024-08-02	0.021	0.0262	-32.99	1540549	Downward Expansion	-49	32
2024-07-26	0.022	0.0265	-30.24	5952062	Downward Expansion	-48	37
2024-07-19	0.023	0.0268	-28.06	5473835	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-07-12	0.023	0.027	-28.55	18346325	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2024-07-05	0.019	0.0272	-40.41	4990157	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2024-06-28	0.018	0.0276	-43.67	9589330	Downward Expansion	-94	97
2024-06-21	0.02	0.028	-38.29	10889241	Downward Expansion	-93	92
2024-06-14	0.0225	0.0283	-30.51	8369757	Downward Expansion	-86	78
2024-06-07	0.026	0.0287	-21.83	5509315	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2024-05-31	0.026	0.0289	-20.90	2551406	Balance	-67	55
2024-05-24	0.027	0.0291	-18.79	3932408	Balance	-58	44
2024-05-17	0.027	0.0292	-20.24	2988350	Balance	-59	40
2024-05-10	0.028	0.0294	-17.11	3284009	Balance	-48	28
2024-05-03	0.028	0.0295	-16.38	2586023	Balance	-48	24
2024-04-26	0.028	0.0296	-16.18	1474428	Balance	-38	17
2024-04-19	0.028	0.0298	-16.48	2398134	Balance	-35	16
2024-04-12	0.029	0.0301	-16.49	3554325	Balance	-28	17
2024-04-05	0.029	0.0304	-16.84	2606050	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2024-03-29	0.029	0.0306	-18.44	2918777	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2024-03-22	0.029	0.0309	-17.44	15088111	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2024-03-15	0.028	0.0312	-19.69	2595022	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2024-03-08	0.027	0.0316	-24.78	6598312	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2024-03-01	0.027	0.0323	-24.39	2524912	Downward Expansion	-66	45
2024-02-23	0.028	0.0325	-21.16	2155985	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2024-02-16	0.029	0.0326	-19.15	2289374	Downward Expansion	-54	44
2024-02-09	0.029	0.0328	-19.73	2756902	Downward Expansion	-55	49
2024-02-02	0.027	0.0329	-26.51	4099385	Downward Expansion	-67	46
2024-01-26	0.029	0.033	-20.44	5546084	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2024-01-19	0.029	0.0332	-19.78	2004601	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2024-01-12	0.031	0.0332	-15.97	3512140	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2024-01-05	0.03	0.0334	-19.38	2754801	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2023-12-29	0.03	0.0336	-21.34	1080365	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2023-12-22	0.03	0.0339	-21.14	4980981	Downward Expansion	-58	51
2023-12-15	0.03	0.0341	-21.21	4532067	Downward Expansion	-59	57
2023-12-08	0.03	0.0343	-19.21	3719842	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2023-12-01	0.029	0.0345	-21.25	4783292	Downward Expansion	-68	54
2023-11-24	0.03	0.0347	-18.98	6296771	Downward Expansion	-65	45
2023-11-17	0.033	0.0348	-11.92	2426202	Downward Expansion	-54	41
2023-11-10	0.033	0.035	-11.87	5593070	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2023-11-03	0.031	0.0352	-17.89	5750565	Downward Expansion	-57	45
2023-10-27	0.031	0.0352	-16.91	5579345	Balance	-57	49
2023-10-20	0.0315	0.0353	-17.21	2772658	Balance	-57	45

Price vs TrendBelow-18.8%

Trend directionFalling-10.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-56.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-26.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-10.5%

Price momentumNegative-36.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.03×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-61 / ±100

+9.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

44 /100

-29.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

LIT Directional State ↗ LIT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance7

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion6

Deceleration58

Rotation Down58

Downward Expansion84

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 28%Upward Expansion 5%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 65%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-10-09	Established	-12.5%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-06-19	Developing	-18.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-04-17	Developing	+10.0%
Balance	2026-01-16	2026-02-20	Developing	-9.1%
Rotation Down	2025-12-19	2026-01-09	New	+10.0%
Balance	2025-11-14	2025-12-12	Developing	-9.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-11-07	Developing	-26.7%
Balance	2025-07-18	2025-09-19	Developing	+18.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-07-11	Extended	-52.6%
Balance	2024-11-01	2024-11-22	New	-14.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-07	2024-10-25	Established	-23.1%
Balance	2024-04-12	2024-05-31	Developing	-10.3%
Downward Expansion	2023-11-03	2024-04-05	Established	-6.5%
Balance	2023-09-08	2023-10-27	Developing	-13.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing57

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution13

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -25.96
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -36.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -33.6%
Industrials regime cohort: 50th percentile38 in cohort

Test LIT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.61×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.03×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore LIT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.007falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.008061falling

Trend Reference AUD 0.008617-18.8% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.0162-56.8% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.007shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +13.7%

Annualized volatility +48.2%

From structural high -56.2%

From structural low +0.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	46	-3.4%-35.7% to +26.8%	+34.8%	+56.5%	-4.2%	+87.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	16	-14.0%-35.3% to +33.3%	+12.5%	+87.5%	-19.1%	+68.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	9	-30.0%-47.1% to +16.7%	+11.1%	+88.9%	-28.8%	+55.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	5	-41.7%-55.7% to -10.0%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-49.8%	+100.0%	Usable descriptive sample

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

LIT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map