Weekly structural research · NYSE · Communication Services

TME Stage Analysis

Tencent Music Entertainment Group

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 8.38Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -57−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 40/100directional strength

Maturity 22/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -35.1%USD 12.91 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	8.38	8.88	-39.71	28767619	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2026-10-02	7.74	9.06	-45.03	29960646	Downward Expansion	-70	64
2026-09-25	8.39	9.25	-41.98	46695474	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2026-09-18	7.76	9.44	-46.97	37475012	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2026-09-11	7.98	9.68	-46.95	23506861	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2026-09-04	8.26	9.92	-46.91	36144060	Downward Expansion	-68	46
2026-08-28	8.56	10.18	-46.27	69469355	Deceleration	-52	31
2026-08-21	8.80	10.44	-45.83	58729639	Deceleration	-33	18
2026-08-14	8.84	10.69	-47.61	82086570	Deceleration	-31	17
2026-08-07	9.53	10.94	-44.79	33667567	Downward Expansion	-24	17
2026-07-31	9.45	11.18	-44.38	39632789	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2026-07-24	8.86	11.45	-48.15	22717314	Downward Expansion	-49	42
2026-07-17	9.12	11.72	-47.85	30352733	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2026-07-10	8.88	12.00	-50.87	24489963	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2026-07-03	8.63	12.29	-52.34	27179188	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2026-06-26	8.39	12.61	-53.37	41782222	Downward Expansion	-75	70
2026-06-19	8.73	12.93	-53.33	56145484	Downward Expansion	-71	63
2026-06-12	9.22	13.23	-50.96	71783639	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-06-05	9.08	13.54	-52.09	54879091	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2026-05-29	9.22	13.92	-53.17	51455398	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2026-05-22	8.81	14.34	-55.13	77468523	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2026-05-15	8.47	14.79	-57.05	59326626	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2026-05-08	9.24	15.24	-53.59	48727966	Downward Expansion	-69	66
2026-05-01	9.10	15.66	-53.61	34999947	Downward Expansion	-73	68
2026-04-24	9.34	16.10	-52.35	38084379	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2026-04-17	10.08	16.55	-48.69	45534557	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2026-04-10	9.36	17.03	-50.51	34600063	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2026-04-03	9.17	17.53	-50.07	51060966	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2026-03-27	9.19	18.02	-48.65	64926584	Downward Expansion	-92	92
2026-03-20	9.83	18.51	-46.67	149697399	Downward Expansion	-95	84
2026-03-13	13.83	19.01	-26.79	31111615	Downward Expansion	-72	81
2026-03-06	13.27	19.38	-30.83	26709055	Downward Expansion	-87	91
2026-02-27	14.23	19.65	-27.46	33144383	Downward Expansion	-83	88
2026-02-20	14.81	19.85	-24.82	16885546	Downward Expansion	-82	85
2026-02-13	15.45	20.05	-20.82	36028058	Downward Expansion	-76	74
2026-02-06	15.92	20.23	-19.37	28490421	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2026-01-30	16.35	20.34	-17.20	35147341	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2026-01-23	16.37	20.43	-16.54	26631283	Downward Expansion	-70	60
2026-01-16	16.16	20.50	-17.63	34854436	Downward Expansion	-77	67
2026-01-09	16.91	20.56	-13.77	31725831	Downward Expansion	-72	68
2026-01-02	17.40	20.60	-9.42	13092956	Downward Expansion	-67	74
2025-12-26	17.17	20.60	-11.13	14101462	Rotation Down	-73	79
2025-12-19	17.34	20.58	-8.64	30224686	Rotation Down	-46	71
2025-12-12	17.76	20.57	-5.94	19116964	Rotation Down	-43	72
2025-12-05	18.11	20.51	-4.18	16449188	Rotation Down	-41	72
2025-11-28	17.98	20.37	-4.11	20357802	Rotation Down	-38	69
2025-11-21	17.69	20.23	-1.64	36763541	Deceleration	-44	63
2025-11-14	18.45	20.08	1.19	64340386	Deceleration	-21	29
2025-11-07	20.74	19.86	14.64	23272507	Deceleration	1	12
2025-10-31	21.75	19.57	19.34	22619916	Deceleration	17	17
2025-10-24	22.32	19.26	24.47	16578860	Deceleration	31	24
2025-10-17	21.79	18.98	25.13	21032024	Deceleration	35	26
2025-10-10	21.86	18.70	28.94	21573553	Deceleration	41	29
2025-10-03	22.32	18.38	29.60	24912976	Upward Expansion	49	42
2025-09-26	23.03	18.06	36.29	32752986	Upward Expansion	63	56
2025-09-19	24.47	17.69	45.94	30311989	Upward Expansion	69	65
2025-09-12	24.36	17.33	49.37	18875632	Upward Expansion	70	67
2025-09-05	23.87	16.96	51.03	15760126	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-08-29	23.89	16.56	53.97	51022855	Upward Expansion	70	86
2025-08-22	24.70	16.15	61.57	24262501	Upward Expansion	87	85
2025-08-15	24.90	15.70	66.09	50961699	Upward Expansion	94	86
2025-08-08	21.57	15.21	47.73	21764837	Upward Expansion	79	70
2025-08-01	20.02	14.84	41.74	26682660	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-07-25	20.76	14.53	44.55	27046720	Upward Expansion	80	85
2025-07-18	20.88	14.22	48.57	37150908	Upward Expansion	87	82
2025-07-11	19.29	13.90	39.02	30727291	Upward Expansion	77	85
2025-07-04	18.96	13.64	36.87	17775597	Upward Expansion	78	87
2025-06-27	18.61	13.41	37.19	24028711	Upward Expansion	79	88
2025-06-20	18.01	13.16	37.96	34576280	Upward Expansion	75	89
2025-06-13	17.95	12.93	37.92	45715244	Upward Expansion	79	90
2025-06-06	17.50	12.69	34.41	21908216	Upward Expansion	80	89
2025-05-30	16.41	12.47	28.52	34313519	Upward Expansion	73	83
2025-05-23	17.07	12.28	36.22	29230779	Upward Expansion	83	84
2025-05-16	16.20	12.08	26.22	61232356	Upward Expansion	78	70
2025-05-09	13.72	11.92	12.50	25484474	Upward Expansion	55	37
2025-05-02	13.95	11.87	13.81	16527045	Upward Expansion	58	26
2025-04-25	13.02	11.84	9.28	41877684	Upward Expansion	37	18
2025-04-18	11.98	11.80	5.07	21117050	Upward Expansion	31	16
2025-04-11	11.92	11.72	3.14	66018331	Upward Expansion	38	25
2025-04-04	12.63	11.62	15.58	32978438	Upward Expansion	54	35
2025-03-28	13.84	11.53	15.51	25572693	Upward Expansion	70	45
2025-03-21	13.47	11.40	11.22	76763638	Upward Expansion	66	37
2025-03-14	12.08	11.28	0.53	45127523	Upward Expansion	56	39
2025-03-07	12.82	11.22	4.46	35498484	Upward Expansion	63	66
2025-02-28	11.73	11.21	-7.14	51506918	Upward Expansion	61	67
2025-02-21	13.84	11.22	8.51	50561729	Upward Expansion	82	80
2025-02-14	13.10	11.21	1.39	41945305	Balance	76	63
2025-02-07	12.07	11.23	-5.03	30455150	Balance	29	18
2025-01-31	11.53	11.31	-9.31	31283451	Balance	-23	17
2025-01-24	11.15	11.40	-13.03	22794749	Balance	-46	36
2025-01-17	10.37	11.48	-17.67	37299582	Balance	-56	46
2025-01-10	10.34	11.58	-15.54	35642350	Balance	-55	34
2025-01-03	10.74	11.71	-14.03	13940882	Balance	-36	15
2024-12-27	11.28	11.80	-10.19	14776638	Balance	-11	11
2024-12-20	11.50	11.89	-7.78	35836588	Balance	-13	11
2024-12-13	11.53	11.98	-9.07	47002718	Balance	-14	10
2024-12-06	12.08	12.08	-5.23	34395075	Balance	-10	6
2024-11-29	10.98	12.10	-12.88	27006945	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2024-11-22	11.10	12.17	-10.88	30226765	Downward Expansion	-40	30
2024-11-15	10.65	12.21	-12.98	52973579	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2024-11-08	10.96	12.21	-12.31	30305457	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2024-11-01	10.70	12.21	-10.14	24055422	Downward Expansion	-39	17
2024-10-25	11.06	12.22	-8.25	24137708	Downward Expansion	-27	23
2024-10-18	11.43	12.21	-5.84	31749502	Downward Expansion	-23	26
2024-10-11	12.30	12.18	2.58	49017881	Downward Expansion	-23	24
2024-10-04	12.97	12.09	10.12	68625117	Downward Expansion	-25	17
2024-09-27	11.82	12.00	1.36	105074126	Downward Expansion	-61	46
2024-09-20	9.49	11.93	-17.67	38979472	Rotation Down	-70	82
2024-09-13	9.15	11.94	-19.26	46814487	Rotation Down	-52	79
2024-09-06	9.80	11.96	-9.89	24093956	Rotation Down	-48	76
2024-08-30	10.05	11.94	-11.10	45780274	Rotation Down	-38	70
2024-08-23	9.85	11.89	-12.33	51135011	Upward Expansion	-46	63
2024-08-16	10.13	11.85	-8.28	92934647	Upward Expansion	-24	34
2024-08-09	12.47	11.78	17.84	31806560	Upward Expansion	10	15
2024-08-02	12.15	11.66	15.91	37519593	Upward Expansion	23	16
2024-07-26	13.56	11.54	27.77	34352358	Upward Expansion	54	40
2024-07-19	13.72	11.38	29.50	32527985	Upward Expansion	57	44
2024-07-12	14.56	11.19	36.14	44750399	Upward Expansion	70	51
2024-07-05	13.98	10.99	33.30	27242474	Upward Expansion	55	47
2024-06-28	13.52	10.78	32.60	28934144	Upward Expansion	51	48
2024-06-21	13.48	10.60	33.35	27869813	Upward Expansion	63	58
2024-06-14	14.24	10.42	42.98	42173333	Upward Expansion	72	66
2024-06-07	13.54	10.21	39.42	41046536	Upward Expansion	68	71
2024-05-31	13.91	10.00	46.21	32000378	Upward Expansion	69	83
2024-05-24	14.11	9.77	49.25	36104272	Upward Expansion	77	90
2024-05-17	14.70	9.53	57.13	54538469	Upward Expansion	93	96
2024-05-10	12.72	9.25	39.66	35562384	Upward Expansion	78	88
2024-05-03	12.87	9.03	45.14	31713171	Upward Expansion	88	88
2024-04-26	12.28	8.81	40.55	44506089	Upward Expansion	87	81
2024-04-19	10.83	8.60	28.24	32432272	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-04-12	10.84	8.44	24.97	28391582	Upward Expansion	68	64
2024-04-05	11.11	8.28	26.66	26026030	Upward Expansion	78	62
2024-03-29	10.67	8.12	21.05	29906040	Upward Expansion	74	59
2024-03-22	10.44	7.99	18.99	69024355	Upward Expansion	74	59
2024-03-15	9.85	7.84	14.93	40911946	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-03-08	10.04	7.72	17.07	54261162	Upward Expansion	73	77
2024-03-01	9.91	7.58	15.36	37858137	Upward Expansion	76	83
2024-02-23	9.75	7.46	14.68	26678794	Upward Expansion	76	78
2024-02-16	9.65	7.36	15.43	36422607	Upward Expansion	80	68
2024-02-09	9.22	7.25	9.96	43115588	Upward Expansion	73	48
2024-02-02	8.64	7.19	4.35	47072402	Upward Expansion	62	44
2024-01-26	8.60	7.13	5.10	48754402	Upward Expansion	62	46
2024-01-19	8.11	7.08	-0.17	52548057	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-01-12	8.95	7.04	11.02	52118076	Upward Expansion	74	59
2024-01-05	8.46	7.00	6.46	28250092	Upward Expansion	66	56
2023-12-29	8.59	6.96	6.02	24432586	Upward Expansion	73	59
2023-12-22	8.11	6.92	0.16	33066351	Upward Expansion	63	60
2023-12-15	8.47	6.88	5.09	56768518	Upward Expansion	78	83
2023-12-08	7.84	6.85	-0.60	29630566	Rotation Up	67	81
2023-12-01	8.04	6.82	1.82	34795137	Rotation Up	47	74
2023-11-24	8.20	6.78	4.73	38668015	Rotation Up	57	75
2023-11-17	7.98	6.74	3.42	74626768	Rotation Up	48	65
2023-11-10	7.03	6.72	-6.40	39096570	Balance	25	34
2023-11-03	7.14	6.73	-3.01	30280043	Balance	10	20
2023-10-27	6.80	6.73	-1.58	35896060	Downward Expansion	-17	12
2023-10-20	6.34	6.77	-9.73	46303606	Downward Expansion	-39	22

Price vs TrendBelow-5.6%

Trend directionFalling-20.6%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-35.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-4.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-39.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+11.2%

Price momentumNegative-10.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.50×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-57 / ±100

+15.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

40 /100

-23.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TME Directional State ↗ TME Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance31

Rotation Up18

Upward Expansion4

Deceleration54

Rotation Down57

Downward Expansion78

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 45%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 32%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-04	2026-10-09	Developing	+1.5%
Deceleration	2026-08-14	2026-08-28	New	-3.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-08-07	Extended	-45.2%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2025-12-26	Developing	-4.5%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2025-11-21	Developing	-19.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-10-03	Extended	+61.3%
Balance	2024-12-06	2025-02-14	Developing	+8.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-27	2024-11-29	Developing	-7.1%
Rotation Down	2024-08-30	2024-09-20	New	-5.6%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-15	2024-08-23	Extended	+16.4%
Rotation Up	2023-11-17	2023-12-08	New	-1.8%
Balance	2023-11-03	2023-11-10	New	-1.6%
Downward Expansion	2023-07-28	2023-10-27	Established	+0.0%
Balance	2023-06-09	2023-07-21	Developing	-13.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing66

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution11

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -39.71
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -10.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -25.3%
Communication Services regime cohort: 24th percentile25 in cohort

Test TME trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.66×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.50×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TME Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 8.10falling

Slow Activity USD 8.66falling

Trend Reference USD 8.88-5.6% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 12.91-35.1% close margin

Structural low USD 7.66shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.5%

Annualized volatility +35.8%

From structural high -64.0%

From structural low +9.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	30	-4.7%-35.4% to +45.7%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-6.2%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-5.9%-47.3% to +118.5%	+18.2%	+72.7%	-13.7%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-5.8%-50.4% to +99.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+3.1%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+77.0%-62.7% to +90.6%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+49.5%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TME Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map