Weekly structural research · LSE · Basic Materials

KEFI Stage Analysis

KEFI Gold and Copper Plc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close GBP 0.00654Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -77−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 91/100directional strength

Maturity 60/100lifecycle context

Confidence 83/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -21.5%GBP 0.008328 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.00654	0.0114	-50.26	484157850	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2026-09-25	0.00675	0.0117	-50.37	916358222	Downward Expansion	-81	89
2026-09-18	0.00773	0.0121	-43.31	743262088	Downward Expansion	-78	80
2026-09-11	0.00667	0.0125	-51.26	1642977331	Downward Expansion	-76	47
2026-09-04	0.0118	0.0129	-15.68	150326479	Downward Expansion	-3	20
2026-08-28	0.0122	0.013	-11.99	37895112	Downward Expansion	-2	26
2026-08-21	0.0127	0.013	-8.19	74463096	Downward Expansion	-5	23
2026-08-14	0.0121	0.0131	-11.15	46359628	Downward Expansion	-29	24
2026-08-07	0.0126	0.0131	-8.09	69020090	Downward Expansion	-31	24
2026-07-31	0.0107	0.0131	-21.17	50048242	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2026-07-24	0.0101	0.0131	-23.92	57251939	Downward Expansion	-67	75
2026-07-17	0.0101	0.0132	-22.86	37249344	Downward Expansion	-70	75
2026-07-10	0.0102	0.0134	-20.93	30874908	Downward Expansion	-70	75
2026-07-03	0.0104	0.0135	-19.97	45347636	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2026-06-26	0.0105	0.0137	-17.87	67667973	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2026-06-19	0.0109	0.0138	-12.98	71745594	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2026-06-12	0.011	0.0139	-12.38	68100040	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2026-06-05	0.0114	0.0141	-7.19	254346878	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2026-05-29	0.0123	0.0142	0.46	383511945	Downward Expansion	-55	52
2026-05-22	0.0114	0.0143	-6.88	481061239	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2026-05-15	0.0124	0.0144	4.75	463729530	Balance	-54	29
2026-05-08	0.013	0.0145	9.97	327767320	Balance	-40	19
2026-05-01	0.0135	0.0145	14.11	437930817	Balance	-35	15
2026-04-24	0.0142	0.0145	20.99	517861594	Deceleration	-18	13
2026-04-17	0.014	0.0143	17.61	503309059	Deceleration	-13	22
2026-04-10	0.0146	0.0142	24.95	826628885	Deceleration	-15	25
2026-04-03	0.0116	0.014	2.60	374861014	Deceleration	-23	29
2026-03-27	0.0114	0.0138	6.04	952754087	Deceleration	-14	20
2026-03-20	0.012	0.0137	13.74	590166528	Upward Expansion	16	9
2026-03-13	0.0168	0.0135	54.86	267834981	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-03-06	0.016	0.0132	50.51	501917769	Upward Expansion	61	65
2026-02-27	0.0184	0.0128	65.56	416971942	Upward Expansion	68	72
2026-02-20	0.0188	0.0124	75.76	781115608	Upward Expansion	74	70
2026-02-13	0.0185	0.0119	81.32	655520887	Upward Expansion	74	59
2026-02-06	0.0145	0.0115	46.57	410746831	Deceleration	38	22
2026-01-30	0.0146	0.0112	52.27	913138308	Deceleration	26	13
2026-01-23	0.0136	0.0109	45.02	479296724	Deceleration	14	13
2026-01-16	0.0126	0.0106	35.84	402217489	Deceleration	14	14
2026-01-09	0.012	0.0103	32.67	671262181	Deceleration	15	12
2026-01-02	0.0133	0.0101	51.56	279347917	Deceleration	33	18
2025-12-26	0.0132	0.009882	54.23	458632005	Deceleration	35	21
2025-12-19	0.0144	0.00963	70.52	166308858	Deceleration	40	28
2025-12-12	0.0145	0.009337	79.53	235190621	Deceleration	42	30
2025-12-05	0.0142	0.009065	79.84	129599673	Upward Expansion	45	35
2025-11-28	0.0148	0.0088	89.63	147652803	Upward Expansion	57	43
2025-11-21	0.0144	0.00852	90.54	163048391	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-11-14	0.0154	0.008209	104.39	179402487	Upward Expansion	65	56
2025-11-07	0.0145	0.007864	97.46	183544127	Upward Expansion	66	61
2025-10-31	0.0156	0.007549	115.01	353975378	Upward Expansion	73	66
2025-10-24	0.0148	0.007198	110.12	793388703	Upward Expansion	73	69
2025-10-17	0.0172	0.006881	158.22	735025215	Upward Expansion	97	96
2025-10-10	0.012	0.006494	85.16	731271330	Upward Expansion	81	92
2025-10-03	0.0132	0.006258	104.82	742607714	Upward Expansion	98	98
2025-09-26	0.0096	0.005995	55.20	587768787	Upward Expansion	85	93
2025-09-19	0.00934	0.005859	53.33	352081378	Upward Expansion	91	94
2025-09-12	0.0082	0.005731	34.78	411849430	Upward Expansion	82	85
2025-09-05	0.00768	0.00563	27.91	788259826	Upward Expansion	79	78
2025-08-29	0.0075	0.005536	25.63	319220269	Upward Expansion	83	72
2025-08-22	0.0061	0.005448	1.09	113425451	Balance	59	42
2025-08-15	0.00586	0.005403	-1.10	211640850	Balance	42	23
2025-08-08	0.0055	0.005368	-6.86	113631496	Balance	31	16
2025-08-01	0.00542	0.005345	-8.24	103142422	Balance	29	14
2025-07-25	0.00562	0.00532	-5.76	191687888	Balance	30	13
2025-07-18	0.00565	0.0053	-4.23	154470538	Balance	18	10
2025-07-11	0.00525	0.005277	-11.03	76860654	Balance	-9	14
2025-07-04	0.00533	0.005268	-9.00	100488095	Upward Expansion	-8	12
2025-06-27	0.00515	0.005257	-12.19	152474590	Upward Expansion	17	15
2025-06-20	0.0048	0.005313	-18.37	311604007	Upward Expansion	11	12
2025-06-13	0.00565	0.005351	-5.30	207983570	Upward Expansion	33	16
2025-06-06	0.0057	0.005365	-4.69	215987791	Upward Expansion	47	24
2025-05-30	0.00566	0.005381	-5.04	223059479	Rotation Up	50	41
2025-05-23	0.0056	0.005394	-5.77	787088721	Rotation Up	25	43
2025-05-16	0.00635	0.005403	6.82	285446179	Rotation Up	31	50
2025-05-09	0.0063	0.005389	7.20	312516582	Balance	30	39
2025-05-02	0.0064	0.005369	8.06	451725899	Balance	23	19
2025-04-25	0.005	0.005355	-13.56	110169596	Balance	-37	21
2025-04-18	0.005	0.005399	-12.22	165024247	Balance	-38	20
2025-04-11	0.00505	0.005431	-8.13	299044216	Balance	-33	14
2025-04-04	0.00504	0.00546	-9.57	140233110	Balance	-31	15
2025-03-28	0.00523	0.005487	-12.87	200612572	Balance	-13	7
2025-03-21	0.00559	0.005505	-6.99	273779354	Balance	-2	8
2025-03-14	0.00497	0.005514	-17.29	191734560	Downward Expansion	-22	17
2025-03-07	0.00532	0.005539	-12.36	151961190	Downward Expansion	-19	20
2025-02-28	0.00552	0.005556	-10.72	302860690	Downward Expansion	-18	17
2025-02-21	0.00549	0.005571	-10.64	244645015	Downward Expansion	-28	16
2025-02-14	0.00518	0.00559	-17.13	159140355	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2025-02-07	0.00485	0.005644	-22.63	158389404	Downward Expansion	-56	36
2025-01-31	0.00486	0.005699	-22.67	145773611	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2025-01-24	0.00475	0.00574	-23.44	106836772	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2025-01-17	0.0048	0.005792	-23.21	92283289	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-01-10	0.00482	0.005839	-21.11	232806960	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2025-01-03	0.00468	0.005888	-23.76	114541601	Downward Expansion	-67	71
2024-12-27	0.00502	0.005949	-18.12	57961654	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2024-12-20	0.00496	0.005992	-18.89	176169779	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-12-13	0.00497	0.006045	-21.34	234962036	Balance	-60	46
2024-12-06	0.00501	0.00612	-21.41	971630066	Balance	-57	24
2024-11-29	0.00682	0.00619	6.47	195715756	Balance	26	26
2024-11-22	0.00595	0.006143	-7.10	204739886	Balance	-17	9
2024-11-15	0.00606	0.00612	-3.50	225892532	Balance	-16	9
2024-11-08	0.00617	0.006102	-1.92	347051432	Balance	-15	7
2024-11-01	0.00606	0.006089	-4.94	113343729	Balance	-40	19
2024-10-25	0.00588	0.00607	-8.70	88107886	Balance	-44	22
2024-10-18	0.00592	0.00606	-9.52	80794784	Balance	-31	13
2024-10-11	0.0057	0.006047	-12.01	61581931	Balance	-10	5
2024-10-04	0.00599	0.00605	-8.13	122376369	Balance	-0	4
2024-09-27	0.00632	0.006039	-3.78	120126315	Balance	6	5
2024-09-20	0.00596	0.006091	-8.49	176316905	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2024-09-13	0.0059	0.00614	-10.22	90029113	Downward Expansion	-48	26
2024-09-06	0.00586	0.006158	-10.28	91861490	Downward Expansion	-42	36
2024-08-30	0.00576	0.006156	-14.09	88536249	Downward Expansion	-46	44
2024-08-23	0.00588	0.006176	-11.86	162904690	Balance	-41	40
2024-08-16	0.0057	0.00619	-14.61	162537279	Balance	-25	24
2024-08-09	0.00585	0.006216	-11.00	64998470	Balance	-22	13
2024-08-02	0.00596	0.006245	-9.59	114324783	Balance	-8	3
2024-07-26	0.00605	0.006269	-9.71	110508111	Balance	6	4
2024-07-19	0.0068	0.006282	2.97	56308169	Balance	24	14
2024-07-12	0.0065	0.006277	-2.49	84512437	Balance	-4	4
2024-07-05	0.0061	0.006291	-7.81	54146550	Balance	-13	9
2024-06-28	0.0063	0.006314	-4.39	22750088	Balance	-7	5
2024-06-21	0.00622	0.00634	-6.44	62318648	Balance	-5	4
2024-06-14	0.0063	0.006359	-4.22	82317611	Rotation Up	8	9
2024-06-07	0.0065	0.006343	-2.42	105112875	Rotation Up	12	26
2024-05-31	0.0063	0.006318	-5.89	152204624	Rotation Up	11	22
2024-05-24	0.00656	0.006306	-2.71	577336842	Rotation Up	8	18
2024-05-17	0.00722	0.006287	4.99	346688087	Downward Expansion	12	15
2024-05-10	0.0071	0.006248	2.33	483784114	Downward Expansion	-16	9
2024-05-03	0.00541	0.006219	-20.59	69103443	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2024-04-26	0.00526	0.006245	-23.06	100788306	Downward Expansion	-61	42
2024-04-19	0.00554	0.006289	-17.52	147704874	Downward Expansion	-56	48
2024-04-12	0.00578	0.006329	-15.86	316074605	Downward Expansion	-55	53
2024-04-05	0.00548	0.006372	-20.21	128491739	Downward Expansion	-57	56
2024-03-29	0.00557	0.006395	-19.92	148867058	Balance	-56	42
2024-03-22	0.00555	0.00639	-20.65	85360498	Balance	-16	21
2024-03-15	0.00577	0.006404	-16.25	106894564	Balance	7	6
2024-03-08	0.00566	0.006398	-17.66	869881777	Balance	26	16
2024-03-01	0.0079	0.006411	14.00	250437611	Balance	58	43
2024-02-23	0.00741	0.006361	6.72	163429654	Balance	50	20
2024-02-16	0.00646	0.006315	-7.00	129309440	Balance	-4	7
2024-02-09	0.0058	0.006286	-15.20	50127108	Balance	-13	11
2024-02-02	0.00634	0.006273	-8.25	48782968	Balance	25	11
2024-01-26	0.00631	0.006248	-9.03	30497504	Balance	28	11
2024-01-19	0.00647	0.006231	-4.97	65981898	Balance	33	14
2024-01-12	0.00672	0.006207	-3.68	136444657	Balance	37	16
2024-01-05	0.0067	0.006187	-5.07	32118012	Balance	47	21
2023-12-29	0.00642	0.006177	-9.68	17858793	Balance	47	25
2023-12-22	0.00665	0.006178	-6.24	137782394	Balance	48	42
2023-12-15	0.00693	0.006236	-0.94	92448779	Balance	50	39
2023-12-08	0.00679	0.006308	-2.72	92664511	Balance	18	20
2023-12-01	0.00708	0.00639	1.67	97884259	Balance	20	14
2023-11-24	0.0068	0.006465	-2.04	91031763	Balance	-22	9
2023-11-17	0.00581	0.006556	-16.85	125396771	Balance	-49	26
2023-11-10	0.00575	0.006663	-16.71	35177172	Balance	-40	22
2023-11-03	0.00595	0.006783	-15.03	78155731	Balance	-36	19
2023-10-27	0.00598	0.006852	-13.80	42163108	Balance	-34	18
2023-10-20	0.00604	0.006926	-14.32	51776156	Balance	-29	14
2023-10-13	0.00623	0.007022	-13.99	95325051	Balance	-14	8

Price vs TrendBelow-42.6%

Trend directionFalling-13.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-21.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-52.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-50.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-30.3%

Price momentumNegative-43.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.30×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-77 / ±100

-74.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

91 /100

+70.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

KEFI Directional State ↗ KEFI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance18

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down81

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 42%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 9%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-10-02	Established	-42.6%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-05-15	New	-8.1%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-24	Developing	+24.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-03-20	Developing	-34.9%
Deceleration	2025-12-12	2026-02-06	Developing	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-12-05	Established	+90.0%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-08-22	Developing	+16.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-06	2025-07-04	Developing	-6.5%
Rotation Up	2025-05-16	2025-05-30	New	-10.9%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-05-09	Developing	+12.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-03-14	Established	+0.2%
Balance	2024-09-27	2024-12-13	Developing	-21.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-30	2024-09-20	New	+3.5%
Balance	2024-06-21	2024-08-23	Developing	-5.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing48

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution22

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -50.26
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -43.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -44.1%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 86th percentile56 in cohort

Test KEFI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.70×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.30×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore KEFI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 0.007201falling

Slow Activity GBP 0.0105falling

Trend Reference GBP 0.0114-42.6% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 0.008328-21.5% close margin

Structural low GBP 0.00586shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +23.1%

Annualized volatility +97.0%

From structural high -68.4%

From structural low +11.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	30	-1.3%-45.0% to +34.8%	+43.3%	+56.7%	+0.5%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+10.9%-37.0% to +46.1%	+70.0%	+30.0%	+7.4%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+3.0%-53.8% to +21.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.6%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+4.5%-61.5% to +30.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.3%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

KEFI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map