Weekly structural research · NYSE · Industrials

DAL Stage Analysis

Delta Air Lines Inc

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 84.94Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 11−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 16/100directional strength

Maturity 46/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +51.0%USD 56.25 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	84.94	77.77	7.96	37820232	Deceleration	11	16
2026-09-18	79.62	77.12	2.94	49545130	Deceleration	1	20
2026-09-11	79.91	76.77	3.51	20533294	Deceleration	4	20
2026-09-04	80.17	76.39	3.31	27139161	Deceleration	24	20
2026-08-28	80.07	76.22	3.49	24057504	Upward Expansion	35	23
2026-08-21	82.41	75.74	7.18	25279633	Upward Expansion	46	35
2026-08-14	89.35	75.24	14.89	17859578	Upward Expansion	61	46
2026-08-07	91.34	74.60	18.11	24318867	Upward Expansion	70	47
2026-07-31	87.44	73.95	17.80	30766394	Upward Expansion	51	40
2026-07-24	85.06	73.33	16.63	29277213	Upward Expansion	60	50
2026-07-17	84.17	72.84	15.38	34444315	Upward Expansion	64	66
2026-07-10	87.39	72.39	18.50	43863635	Upward Expansion	67	80
2026-07-03	92.53	71.79	27.80	26237786	Upward Expansion	82	89
2026-06-26	92.35	70.93	31.44	47259616	Upward Expansion	87	88
2026-06-19	83.98	69.98	17.77	45257752	Upward Expansion	73	81
2026-06-12	82.86	69.12	18.07	33879002	Upward Expansion	75	80
2026-06-05	79.23	68.30	14.30	27721764	Upward Expansion	67	72
2026-05-29	82.48	67.61	16.55	37399539	Upward Expansion	79	73
2026-05-22	76.14	66.76	9.76	39146121	Balance	67	55
2026-05-15	70.23	66.25	2.54	29958469	Balance	51	39
2026-05-08	73.14	65.88	7.22	39709671	Balance	63	49
2026-05-01	68.80	65.35	3.53	37003166	Balance	48	30
2026-04-24	68.27	64.94	4.09	39955106	Balance	39	27
2026-04-17	71.53	64.56	10.11	58746094	Balance	48	30
2026-04-10	67.64	64.15	9.36	64838253	Balance	32	17
2026-04-03	66.59	63.88	12.08	56185894	Rotation Down	-9	13
2026-03-27	64.66	63.68	13.25	69056435	Rotation Down	-18	30
2026-03-20	63.27	63.56	8.89	81191056	Rotation Down	-20	32
2026-03-13	58.63	63.49	-0.61	93975927	Deceleration	-33	36
2026-03-06	58.86	63.53	-1.60	76351792	Deceleration	-13	18
2026-02-27	65.53	63.34	7.28	41724351	Deceleration	35	24
2026-02-20	69.07	62.85	12.39	30971785	Deceleration	41	29
2026-02-13	68.64	62.35	12.95	41146242	Deceleration	43	30
2026-02-06	74.95	61.92	21.61	48869582	Deceleration	76	48
2026-01-30	65.54	61.29	6.04	37505509	Upward Expansion	45	36
2026-01-23	67.60	60.78	9.41	30484518	Upward Expansion	59	48
2026-01-16	70.06	60.16	12.71	54412583	Upward Expansion	64	57
2026-01-09	71.93	59.38	15.11	36333937	Upward Expansion	75	81
2026-01-02	68.70	58.53	11.43	17418964	Upward Expansion	66	81
2025-12-26	70.48	57.92	13.17	15906078	Upward Expansion	73	86
2025-12-19	70.69	57.16	15.12	47801413	Upward Expansion	79	86
2025-12-12	69.44	56.39	13.26	45438632	Upward Expansion	80	80
2025-12-05	66.75	55.75	8.26	42082584	Upward Expansion	75	65
2025-11-28	63.76	55.11	3.58	29346490	Deceleration	67	38
2025-11-21	58.26	54.44	-2.11	36201674	Deceleration	43	20
2025-11-14	58.10	53.86	-4.61	37274398	Deceleration	46	26
2025-11-07	58.57	53.27	-4.15	42827605	Deceleration	48	29
2025-10-31	57.08	52.66	-8.39	37668891	Deceleration	48	29
2025-10-24	60.63	51.98	-2.37	37334096	Deceleration	52	32
2025-10-17	59.33	51.40	-2.69	47922628	Deceleration	42	24
2025-10-10	57.00	50.95	-4.99	74512309	Deceleration	38	23
2025-10-03	56.78	50.59	-7.66	37100900	Upward Expansion	42	29
2025-09-26	56.72	50.45	-6.73	30473864	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-09-19	59.26	50.53	-2.91	49128474	Upward Expansion	62	57
2025-09-12	59.37	50.52	-1.38	44791256	Upward Expansion	64	78
2025-09-05	60.67	50.69	2.59	27570439	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-08-29	61.26	50.90	4.31	27185509	Rotation Up	76	82
2025-08-22	61.18	51.06	4.56	34242659	Rotation Up	54	62
2025-08-15	59.74	51.22	2.88	43786933	Rotation Up	53	46
2025-08-08	53.19	51.38	-7.08	33414132	Rotation Up	30	33
2025-08-01	50.72	51.80	-8.99	35889973	Rotation Up	23	46
2025-07-25	54.21	52.05	-4.93	37921001	Rotation Up	26	55
2025-07-18	55.62	52.25	-0.86	58675890	Balance	33	53
2025-07-11	55.98	52.39	0.55	100587224	Balance	17	31
2025-07-04	50.26	52.54	-9.73	38525637	Balance	-9	8
2025-06-27	49.00	52.98	-10.52	54673299	Balance	-19	12
2025-06-20	46.64	53.44	-12.00	37651811	Balance	-22	13
2025-06-13	46.48	53.96	-12.65	43069808	Balance	-22	16
2025-06-06	50.35	54.51	-5.95	40599291	Downward Expansion	-26	24
2025-05-30	47.82	54.83	-9.38	36960681	Downward Expansion	-30	26
2025-05-23	47.35	55.15	-8.95	42938789	Downward Expansion	-35	27
2025-05-16	50.32	55.34	-6.01	63335903	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2025-05-09	47.63	55.49	-6.59	67442245	Downward Expansion	-48	40
2025-05-02	43.55	55.59	-15.23	47375882	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2025-04-25	40.97	55.74	-18.32	45403014	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2025-04-18	40.25	56.06	-16.45	46253233	Downward Expansion	-69	86
2025-04-11	40.28	56.25	-17.89	120411798	Rotation Down	-72	89
2025-04-04	36.71	56.39	-21.18	82394023	Rotation Down	-62	86
2025-03-28	43.20	56.54	-15.92	51230431	Rotation Down	-56	80
2025-03-21	46.09	56.48	-11.85	61716479	Rotation Down	-46	71
2025-03-14	46.07	56.30	-11.52	100333853	Deceleration	-48	49
2025-03-07	52.50	56.08	-1.49	60921058	Deceleration	-16	26
2025-02-28	59.24	55.61	7.96	42367957	Upward Expansion	27	17
2025-02-21	58.98	54.94	6.85	35960787	Upward Expansion	38	29
2025-02-14	64.27	54.41	15.00	41026479	Upward Expansion	62	51
2025-02-07	66.98	53.74	22.29	30283024	Upward Expansion	69	70
2025-01-31	66.12	52.93	21.34	25047782	Upward Expansion	68	61
2025-01-24	66.03	52.23	20.73	36790822	Upward Expansion	70	55
2025-01-17	64.70	51.57	21.08	40578904	Deceleration	68	51
2025-01-10	65.81	51.02	27.66	55016766	Deceleration	66	46
2025-01-03	57.99	50.41	11.14	27330552	Upward Expansion	45	36
2024-12-27	60.21	50.12	15.12	22068624	Upward Expansion	51	48
2024-12-20	59.89	49.77	15.70	43136729	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-12-13	60.47	49.47	15.08	33986595	Upward Expansion	67	64
2024-12-06	63.43	49.17	20.30	34953800	Upward Expansion	73	75
2024-11-29	62.73	48.76	20.49	22069639	Upward Expansion	74	87
2024-11-22	62.26	48.34	21.61	43912903	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-11-15	62.98	47.89	25.80	40379470	Upward Expansion	89	95
2024-11-08	60.01	47.34	18.14	42080309	Upward Expansion	89	95
2024-11-01	57.39	46.86	19.01	48849623	Rotation Up	89	94
2024-10-25	53.20	46.44	9.41	30902327	Rotation Up	48	76
2024-10-18	54.85	46.23	12.20	54286676	Rotation Up	52	76
2024-10-11	50.45	45.88	4.55	50130505	Rotation Up	38	59
2024-10-04	48.29	45.60	1.44	44916970	Rotation Up	28	38
2024-09-27	50.51	45.36	6.37	50157468	Downward Expansion	39	38
2024-09-20	46.00	45.05	-2.50	39740171	Downward Expansion	-16	21
2024-09-13	44.28	44.87	-4.94	49395344	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2024-09-06	41.19	44.69	-8.22	41354358	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2024-08-30	41.64	44.63	-11.34	36522177	Rotation Down	-63	58
2024-08-23	40.55	44.54	-13.81	26517979	Rotation Down	-39	68
2024-08-16	39.35	44.48	-15.60	38213143	Rotation Down	-45	71
2024-08-09	38.51	44.37	-14.52	55596741	Rotation Down	-56	73
2024-08-02	39.03	44.34	-13.85	40745966	Rotation Down	-49	68
2024-07-26	43.10	44.35	-7.41	50393264	Deceleration	-31	45
2024-07-19	44.38	44.22	-5.86	54509493	Deceleration	-4	27
2024-07-12	42.60	44.07	-11.90	78770307	Deceleration	-16	29
2024-07-05	44.94	44.02	-6.69	28575186	Deceleration	11	21
2024-06-28	46.33	43.83	-2.53	44008867	Deceleration	33	24
2024-06-21	48.23	43.52	0.96	25018000	Deceleration	40	28
2024-06-14	47.58	43.08	0.06	35239395	Upward Expansion	46	37
2024-06-07	49.26	42.67	5.12	32841959	Upward Expansion	61	54
2024-05-31	49.83	42.13	7.73	29549089	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-05-24	50.63	41.55	9.26	28185515	Upward Expansion	68	82
2024-05-17	51.47	40.85	11.36	27678697	Upward Expansion	78	89
2024-05-10	51.27	40.18	13.11	30971255	Upward Expansion	84	88
2024-05-03	50.25	39.58	13.41	48727118	Upward Expansion	86	84
2024-04-26	48.66	39.10	10.91	54370651	Upward Expansion	83	75
2024-04-19	46.37	38.68	8.84	59183373	Upward Expansion	73	75
2024-04-12	45.68	38.35	4.20	88546183	Upward Expansion	72	83
2024-04-05	44.90	38.11	1.13	52782215	Upward Expansion	70	81
2024-03-29	46.66	37.94	4.30	40096211	Upward Expansion	89	89
2024-03-22	44.44	37.77	-0.19	39839247	Upward Expansion	84	82
2024-03-15	42.03	37.63	-3.34	52827920	Upward Expansion	73	74
2024-03-08	41.17	37.57	-5.38	39506966	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-03-01	41.10	37.63	-6.07	37905434	Deceleration	71	65
2024-02-23	40.67	37.70	-6.44	35601593	Deceleration	40	44
2024-02-16	39.01	37.82	-9.00	39460029	Deceleration	27	23
2024-02-09	39.39	38.09	-8.72	37438915	Deceleration	19	13
2024-02-02	38.88	38.28	-8.93	39420613	Deceleration	1	9
2024-01-26	38.54	38.53	-8.76	64170952	Deceleration	-19	15
2024-01-19	36.25	38.78	-13.57	71335444	Rotation Up	-25	15
2024-01-12	37.41	38.95	-10.17	86874275	Rotation Up	1	18
2024-01-05	39.42	39.09	-3.89	40548427	Rotation Up	24	50
2023-12-29	39.12	39.04	-6.25	22377850	Rotation Up	25	42
2023-12-22	40.00	38.93	-3.87	40400504	Rotation Up	30	44
2023-12-15	41.17	38.75	-0.14	56003621	Downward Expansion	21	37
2023-12-08	39.24	38.53	-2.49	50732210	Downward Expansion	-4	26
2023-12-01	37.00	38.29	-7.81	46675892	Downward Expansion	-36	31
2023-11-24	35.11	38.15	-11.92	31903672	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2023-11-17	35.07	38.09	-11.30	44930690	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2023-11-10	33.12	38.03	-14.43	48920793	Downward Expansion	-66	83
2023-11-03	32.43	38.01	-15.30	51245987	Rotation Down	-68	88
2023-10-27	29.81	38.02	-17.81	53334162	Rotation Down	-63	86
2023-10-20	31.34	38.15	-16.00	56965314	Rotation Down	-63	85
2023-10-13	33.16	38.13	-13.46	85437426	Rotation Down	-52	78
2023-10-06	35.88	38.08	-6.11	42763908	Rotation Down	-37	68

Price vs TrendAbove+9.2%

Trend directionRising+6.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+51.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-24.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+8.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-23.5%

Price momentumPositive+31.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.81×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

11 / ±100

-24.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

16 /100

-7.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

DAL Directional State ↗ DAL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance52

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion43

Deceleration82

Rotation Down41

Downward Expansion37

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 37%Deceleration 22%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 12%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-09-25	New	+5.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-08-28	Established	-2.9%
Balance	2026-04-10	2026-05-22	Developing	+12.6%
Rotation Down	2026-03-20	2026-04-03	New	+5.2%
Deceleration	2026-02-06	2026-03-13	Developing	-21.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-01-30	Developing	-1.8%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2025-11-28	Developing	+11.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-10-03	Developing	-6.4%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-29	Developing	+13.0%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-07-18	Developing	+19.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-06-06	Developing	+25.1%
Rotation Down	2025-03-21	2025-04-11	New	-12.6%
Deceleration	2025-03-07	2025-03-14	New	-12.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-02-28	Developing	-10.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing1

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution73

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 38/100
Current Relative Strength: 7.96
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +31.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +9.4%
Industrials regime cohort: 15th percentile60 in cohort

Test DAL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.16×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.81×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore DAL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 81.55falling

Slow Activity USD 82.04rising

Trend Reference USD 77.77+9.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 56.25+51.0% close margin

Structural low USD 62.78shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +6.4%

Annualized volatility +32.9%

From structural high -11.0%

From structural low +55.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	14	+2.1%-30.1% to +14.0%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-2.5%	+35.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-2.4%-38.8% to +29.8%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-9.3%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+18.7%-14.9% to +24.2%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+6.8%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	2	+14.3%-3.3% to +31.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-7.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

DAL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map