Weekly structural research · CPH · Consumer Defensive

STG Stage Analysis

Scandinavian Tobacco Group A/S

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close DKK 76.40Tenure NewBenchmark ^OMXC25

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 72−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 51/100directional strength

Maturity 34/100lifecycle context

Confidence 61/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -8.7%DKK 83.68 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	76.40	69.51	-1.49	519824	Upward Expansion	72	51
2026-10-02	73.90	69.08	-4.64	526890	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-09-25	74.80	68.67	-4.70	725384	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-09-18	73.90	69.41	-7.94	469756	Rotation Up	62	79
2026-09-11	73.20	70.13	-8.99	300435	Rotation Up	36	69
2026-09-04	75.70	70.81	-8.67	106925	Rotation Up	56	79
2026-08-28	76.60	71.45	-8.61	187877	Rotation Up	62	75
2026-08-21	70.20	71.94	-15.91	67264	Balance	3	30
2026-08-14	71.00	72.63	-15.09	87629	Balance	1	28
2026-08-07	72.20	73.29	-11.69	92750	Balance	13	30
2026-07-31	72.00	73.86	-12.06	114737	Downward Expansion	4	12
2026-07-24	69.70	74.47	-14.74	117541	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2026-07-17	68.40	75.09	-19.69	135770	Downward Expansion	-49	44
2026-07-10	65.70	75.78	-21.94	81965	Downward Expansion	-63	71
2026-07-03	67.30	76.47	-21.42	84404	Downward Expansion	-53	68
2026-06-26	66.70	77.07	-18.37	239479	Downward Expansion	-58	76
2026-06-19	66.10	77.70	-16.77	108098	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2026-06-12	67.60	78.30	-16.48	60560	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2026-06-05	68.10	78.82	-15.40	493313	Downward Expansion	-46	31
2026-05-29	70.60	79.21	-13.91	537746	Downward Expansion	-32	25
2026-05-22	72.70	79.53	-11.60	1075073	Downward Expansion	-35	28
2026-05-15	71.40	79.81	-12.44	431186	Downward Expansion	-40	30
2026-05-08	69.90	80.12	-13.56	915398	Downward Expansion	-45	42
2026-05-01	69.40	80.46	-15.03	891272	Downward Expansion	-49	50
2026-04-24	64.90	80.85	-20.09	1077580	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2026-04-17	65.20	81.42	-22.68	1800953	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2026-04-10	64.52	82.03	-22.66	893596	Downward Expansion	-67	87
2026-04-03	63.96	82.69	-21.84	514072	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2026-03-27	61.44	83.40	-22.18	754303	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2026-03-20	61.72	84.17	-21.54	1602409	Rotation Down	-85	89
2026-03-13	63.49	84.96	-21.79	2686358	Rotation Down	-49	56
2026-03-06	61.81	85.64	-25.33	4849311	Rotation Down	-36	32
2026-02-27	96.73	86.28	13.67	610220	Upward Expansion	81	90
2026-02-20	95.61	85.69	7.35	427830	Upward Expansion	81	87
2026-02-13	93.56	85.19	5.57	380266	Upward Expansion	73	78
2026-02-06	95.05	84.73	4.98	574458	Upward Expansion	85	70
2026-01-30	91.32	84.20	-1.99	575302	Upward Expansion	70	56
2026-01-23	90.76	83.79	-3.36	662151	Upward Expansion	70	61
2026-01-16	90.94	83.38	-4.36	726568	Upward Expansion	76	72
2026-01-09	89.26	83.02	-4.40	492257	Upward Expansion	69	77
2026-01-02	90.29	82.76	0.90	292986	Upward Expansion	81	84
2025-12-26	88.14	82.45	-0.98	235519	Upward Expansion	72	78
2025-12-19	89.08	82.16	1.18	577644	Upward Expansion	84	83
2025-12-12	86.37	81.81	-2.14	395401	Upward Expansion	70	73
2025-12-05	85.34	81.95	-0.97	425806	Balance	64	61
2025-11-28	85.72	82.15	0.89	499982	Balance	31	31
2025-11-21	84.04	82.31	2.07	525994	Balance	-2	6
2025-11-14	83.19	82.44	-0.10	985196	Downward Expansion	-16	12
2025-11-07	79.83	82.46	-1.87	875565	Downward Expansion	-62	46
2025-10-31	80.21	82.53	-1.61	557151	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2025-10-24	81.05	82.64	-1.58	390315	Downward Expansion	-54	40
2025-10-17	80.67	82.80	-1.73	484940	Balance	-48	38
2025-10-10	80.30	82.99	-2.22	876249	Balance	-50	36
2025-10-03	80.95	83.24	-0.98	499253	Rotation Up	-40	25
2025-09-26	82.17	83.62	4.47	377810	Rotation Up	-16	15
2025-09-19	83.48	83.96	3.99	645107	Rotation Up	21	39
2025-09-12	84.32	84.20	5.83	404080	Rotation Up	24	52
2025-09-05	85.16	84.37	6.72	444295	Rotation Up	29	49
2025-08-29	84.50	84.49	6.13	796967	Downward Expansion	6	29
2025-08-22	85.34	84.60	4.41	561062	Downward Expansion	3	21
2025-08-15	84.13	84.60	6.88	792542	Downward Expansion	-22	17
2025-08-08	80.86	84.58	1.96	520440	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2025-08-01	79.18	84.64	2.10	606421	Downward Expansion	-60	40
2025-07-25	80.49	84.77	-5.00	409155	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2025-07-18	79.83	84.81	-2.74	535748	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2025-07-11	79.09	84.81	-3.49	413390	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2025-07-04	78.90	84.89	-3.24	435016	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2025-06-27	78.62	84.98	-3.29	557844	Rotation Down	-69	68
2025-06-20	80.11	85.05	-2.52	481988	Rotation Down	-35	60
2025-06-13	81.42	85.14	-4.73	588183	Rotation Down	-31	51
2025-06-06	81.05	85.18	-4.74	763842	Rotation Down	-31	43
2025-05-30	79.37	85.39	-3.91	487514	Rotation Down	-27	35
2025-05-23	78.71	85.70	-4.09	3055992	Rotation Down	6	8
2025-05-16	90.48	86.00	10.42	707999	Upward Expansion	59	45
2025-05-09	91.41	85.91	16.43	521767	Deceleration	55	38
2025-05-02	90.48	85.88	14.09	428291	Deceleration	45	18
2025-04-25	87.77	85.80	18.71	585284	Deceleration	-6	19
2025-04-18	83.94	85.81	15.30	442437	Deceleration	-21	32
2025-04-11	81.89	85.95	17.16	1580195	Deceleration	-23	33
2025-04-04	83.49	86.19	19.35	1117322	Deceleration	-15	26
2025-03-28	85.95	86.38	9.75	499757	Rotation Up	31	21
2025-03-21	86.29	86.53	7.21	387654	Rotation Up	18	25
2025-03-14	87.99	86.72	8.18	829864	Rotation Up	37	43
2025-03-07	92.23	86.69	10.63	683670	Rotation Up	49	77
2025-02-28	92.23	86.49	8.46	511466	Rotation Up	47	76
2025-02-21	90.87	86.29	8.06	518065	Rotation Up	44	71
2025-02-14	89.35	86.15	8.55	358398	Rotation Up	39	61
2025-02-07	88.84	86.04	7.67	402347	Downward Expansion	33	35
2025-01-31	87.82	85.94	7.34	524048	Downward Expansion	-1	16
2025-01-24	85.10	85.84	4.22	354072	Downward Expansion	-28	21
2025-01-17	83.74	85.79	3.89	612161	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2025-01-10	82.55	85.75	0.08	359487	Downward Expansion	-47	35
2025-01-03	83.06	85.70	-1.08	260796	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-12-27	81.70	85.67	-2.48	196466	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2024-12-20	79.83	85.69	-1.82	643768	Rotation Down	-75	78
2024-12-13	81.53	85.77	-5.09	423068	Rotation Down	-39	66
2024-12-06	81.62	85.90	-6.34	561805	Rotation Down	-41	68
2024-11-29	80.68	86.04	-7.61	580313	Rotation Down	-42	64
2024-11-22	82.72	86.24	-5.28	574016	Balance	-34	49
2024-11-15	82.72	86.68	-4.38	1624431	Balance	-29	24
2024-11-08	87.48	87.09	-1.37	460234	Balance	20	13
2024-11-01	88.50	87.28	-3.21	650226	Balance	33	17
2024-10-25	87.65	87.51	-4.71	393622	Balance	6	8
2024-10-18	87.99	87.86	-5.40	416694	Balance	8	9
2024-10-11	90.36	88.23	-3.39	445399	Balance	20	13
2024-10-04	88.16	88.54	-4.53	523606	Balance	7	8
2024-09-27	87.99	88.69	-7.01	477197	Balance	2	7
2024-09-20	88.16	89.12	-8.25	892928	Balance	15	19
2024-09-13	89.18	89.48	-9.76	518897	Balance	20	37
2024-09-06	89.18	89.84	-6.06	482771	Balance	1	31
2024-08-30	90.53	90.18	-6.37	692479	Balance	9	26
2024-08-23	91.89	90.39	-4.25	972567	Balance	17	24
2024-08-16	86.97	90.60	-9.66	368175	Downward Expansion	-18	17
2024-08-09	86.46	90.90	-9.11	498070	Downward Expansion	-30	22
2024-08-02	86.12	91.28	-9.83	516485	Downward Expansion	-32	28
2024-07-26	86.63	91.64	-10.44	511975	Downward Expansion	-34	27
2024-07-19	86.12	91.85	-10.09	560899	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2024-07-12	85.78	92.06	-13.24	478687	Downward Expansion	-46	40
2024-07-05	84.84	92.20	-13.67	668050	Downward Expansion	-52	52
2024-06-28	83.49	92.51	-14.25	911916	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2024-06-21	82.55	92.95	-16.21	1695013	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2024-06-14	81.02	93.34	-17.87	724199	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2024-06-07	82.21	93.68	-18.88	777811	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2024-05-31	82.47	93.83	-17.55	920957	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2024-05-24	82.04	93.88	-17.87	1084656	Rotation Down	-82	88
2024-05-17	85.44	93.87	-15.20	1180587	Rotation Down	-50	70
2024-05-10	85.95	93.75	-12.68	747891	Rotation Down	-53	65
2024-05-03	86.63	93.64	-10.23	1066768	Deceleration	-43	45
2024-04-26	95.97	93.55	-1.68	694189	Deceleration	8	15
2024-04-19	94.95	93.19	-2.11	667234	Deceleration	9	15
2024-04-12	93.25	92.81	-5.05	764868	Deceleration	2	8
2024-04-05	95.46	92.52	-3.90	861401	Deceleration	35	21
2024-03-29	98.04	92.16	-2.70	370047	Deceleration	39	21
2024-03-22	98.99	91.69	-2.38	644128	Upward Expansion	47	29
2024-03-15	99.71	91.47	-0.69	1100802	Upward Expansion	54	34
2024-03-08	92.82	91.18	-9.30	985016	Upward Expansion	39	33
2024-03-01	100.66	91.15	-0.12	313151	Upward Expansion	72	69
2024-02-23	99.15	90.91	-0.06	338874	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-02-16	99.94	90.73	0.22	324531	Upward Expansion	74	73
2024-02-09	99.23	90.46	0.55	327378	Upward Expansion	72	66
2024-02-02	96.85	90.31	-0.23	331203	Upward Expansion	64	70
2024-01-26	98.12	90.15	2.17	320391	Upward Expansion	72	77
2024-01-19	96.22	89.87	1.53	329383	Upward Expansion	64	68
2024-01-12	97.81	89.68	0.15	337744	Upward Expansion	77	64
2024-01-05	96.93	89.42	0.85	346852	Rotation Up	76	48
2023-12-29	92.90	89.21	-1.83	169917	Rotation Up	33	30
2023-12-22	92.26	89.18	-1.65	455930	Rotation Up	25	46
2023-12-15	90.20	89.14	-1.75	447918	Rotation Up	27	59
2023-12-08	94.08	89.32	3.90	464230	Rotation Up	29	65
2023-12-01	96.70	89.48	7.17	566523	Rotation Up	46	60
2023-11-24	94.16	89.62	5.56	430035	Downward Expansion	33	34
2023-11-17	91.31	89.96	2.54	502749	Downward Expansion	-12	14
2023-11-10	86.56	90.28	1.03	443077	Downward Expansion	-46	32
2023-11-03	84.03	90.87	-1.42	256653	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2023-10-27	81.89	91.50	-1.88	298280	Downward Expansion	-67	53
2023-10-20	81.73	92.15	-3.39	265951	Downward Expansion	-71	55

Price vs TrendAbove+9.9%

Trend directionFalling-5.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-8.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+13.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+20.5%

Price momentumPositive+18.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.17×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

72 / ±100

+36.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

51 /100

-17.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

STG Directional State ↗ STG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance24

Rotation Up55

Upward Expansion78

Deceleration70

Rotation Down21

Downward Expansion7

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 14%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	+2.1%
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-09-18	New	-3.5%
Balance	2026-08-07	2026-08-21	New	-2.8%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-07-31	Established	+17.2%
Rotation Down	2026-03-06	2026-03-20	New	-0.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-02-27	Developing	+12.0%
Balance	2025-11-21	2025-12-05	New	+1.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-24	2025-11-14	New	+2.6%
Balance	2025-10-10	2025-10-17	New	+0.5%
Rotation Up	2025-09-05	2025-10-03	Developing	-4.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-08-29	Developing	+7.1%
Rotation Down	2025-05-23	2025-06-27	Developing	-0.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-05-16	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2025-04-04	2025-05-09	Developing	+9.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution25

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^OMXC25

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 56/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.49
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +18.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +14.5%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 100th percentile2 in cohort

Test STG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.06×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.17×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore STG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity DKK 74.87rising

Slow Activity DKK 71.41rising

Trend Reference DKK 69.51+9.9% close margin

Current Fair Value DKK 83.68-8.7% close margin

Structural low DKK 63.20shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.5%

Annualized volatility +20.8%

From structural high -21.3%

From structural low +28.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^OMXC25	Regime survived	Read
Near term	20	-3.1%-35.0% to +8.6%	+45.0%	+45.0%	-2.8%	+70.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-7.0%-26.5% to +9.1%	+14.3%	+14.3%	-6.3%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-10.2%-21.7% to +6.9%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-11.0%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-5.0%-21.1% to +7.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-7.4%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

STG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map