Weekly structural research · MEX · Technology

SIMON Stage Analysis

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 5,010.72Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 64−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 45/100directional strength

Maturity 80/100lifecycle context

Confidence 61/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +182.6%MXN 1,773.31 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	5,010.72	3,711.29	80.48	550	Deceleration	64	45
2026-09-18	4,340.00	3,609.99	64.43	38	Deceleration	16	19
2026-09-11	4,571.00	3,531.05	75.48	30	Deceleration	22	26
2026-09-04	3,968.00	3,444.41	53.74	56	Deceleration	5	33
2026-08-28	4,302.00	3,377.85	68.29	0	Deceleration	33	43
2026-08-21	4,302.00	3,300.16	71.29	0	Deceleration	35	33
2026-08-14	4,302.00	3,222.47	78.69	0	Deceleration	38	36
2026-08-07	4,476.05	3,144.78	83.00	46	Deceleration	43	36
2026-07-31	4,610.33	3,061.29	92.95	0	Upward Expansion	53	56
2026-07-24	4,610.25	2,962.85	99.44	0	Upward Expansion	67	67
2026-07-17	4,610.32	2,864.41	103.89	800	Upward Expansion	69	69
2026-07-10	5,834.13	2,765.98	165.39	0	Upward Expansion	89	76
2026-07-03	5,834.06	2,626.74	173.62	0	Upward Expansion	96	98
2026-06-26	5,425.00	2,487.52	164.29	8	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-06-19	4,726.00	2,351.16	137.43	0	Rotation Up	85	75
2026-06-12	4,726.00	2,238.11	144.18	0	Rotation Up	98	79
2026-06-05	4,565.71	2,125.05	150.47	300	Rotation Up	98	79
2026-05-29	4,990.00	2,017.32	173.05	301	Upward Expansion	97	79
2026-05-22	2,178.31	1,895.45	24.24	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2026-05-15	2,178.31	1,867.30	25.89	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2026-05-08	2,178.31	1,839.15	23.49	0	Upward Expansion	64	67
2026-05-01	2,177.81	1,811.01	27.99	0	Upward Expansion	63	87
2026-04-24	2,177.81	1,782.87	26.41	0	Upward Expansion	65	88
2026-04-17	2,177.81	1,754.74	26.26	0	Upward Expansion	66	88
2026-04-10	2,177.81	1,726.61	26.67	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2026-04-03	2,177.81	1,698.48	27.95	0	Upward Expansion	69	69
2026-03-27	2,177.81	1,670.35	34.49	0	Upward Expansion	78	92
2026-03-20	2,177.81	1,642.22	40.87	0	Upward Expansion	91	97
2026-03-13	2,177.81	1,614.08	38.77	0	Upward Expansion	98	99
2026-03-06	2,177.81	1,585.95	36.38	1590	Upward Expansion	100	88
2026-02-27	1,971.76	1,557.82	17.24	0	Upward Expansion	70	69
2026-02-20	1,971.76	1,536.54	17.56	0	Upward Expansion	70	69
2026-02-13	1,971.76	1,515.26	17.92	0	Upward Expansion	70	70
2026-02-06	1,971.26	1,493.98	19.46	0	Upward Expansion	70	89
2026-01-30	1,971.26	1,469.72	25.58	0	Rotation Up	80	73
2026-01-23	1,971.26	1,445.46	24.99	0	Rotation Up	94	78
2026-01-16	1,971.26	1,421.20	27.45	0	Rotation Up	99	80
2026-01-09	1,971.26	1,396.94	30.02	1590	Upward Expansion	100	80
2026-01-02	1,657.20	1,372.68	13.03	0	Upward Expansion	70	89
2025-12-26	1,657.20	1,358.89	10.50	0	Rotation Up	89	76
2025-12-19	1,657.20	1,345.10	13.39	0	Rotation Up	99	80
2025-12-12	1,657.20	1,331.31	12.16	0	Upward Expansion	99	80
2025-12-05	1,657.20	1,317.52	14.67	46	Upward Expansion	97	99
2025-11-28	1,334.36	1,303.73	-7.83	0	Upward Expansion	95	78
2025-11-21	1,334.36	1,300.68	-5.59	0	Upward Expansion	95	78
2025-11-14	1,334.36	1,297.63	-6.51	0	Upward Expansion	93	78
2025-11-07	1,333.86	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2025-10-31	1,333.86	1,291.56	-7.68	0	Upward Expansion	56	84
2025-10-24	1,333.86	1,288.53	-5.49	0	Upward Expansion	57	85
2025-10-17	1,333.86	1,285.50	-6.57	0	Upward Expansion	58	85
2025-10-10	1,333.86	1,282.47	-4.90	0	Upward Expansion	59	63
2025-10-03	1,333.86	1,279.44	-7.21	0	Upward Expansion	69	68
2025-09-26	1,333.86	1,276.41	-7.85	0	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-09-19	1,333.86	1,273.38	-6.34	0	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-09-12	1,333.86	1,270.35	-7.40	0	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-09-05	1,333.86	1,267.32	-5.56	0	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-08-29	1,333.86	1,264.27	-2.89	0	Upward Expansion	70	70
2025-08-22	1,333.86	1,261.23	-3.80	0	Upward Expansion	70	90
2025-08-15	1,333.86	1,258.18	-2.36	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2025-08-08	1,333.86	1,255.14	-1.95	0	Upward Expansion	87	95
2025-08-01	1,333.36	1,252.09	-0.01	0	Upward Expansion	95	88
2025-07-25	1,333.36	1,249.06	-0.77	0	Upward Expansion	95	78
2025-07-18	1,333.36	1,246.03	1.06	10	Deceleration	93	77
2025-07-11	1,243.47	1,243.00	-6.24	0	Deceleration	57	65
2025-07-04	1,243.47	1,242.97	-8.53	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2025-06-27	1,243.47	1,242.93	-7.77	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2025-06-20	1,243.47	1,242.90	-6.07	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2025-06-13	1,243.47	1,242.87	-8.10	0	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-06-06	1,243.47	1,242.83	-9.24	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2025-05-30	1,243.47	1,242.78	-9.05	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-05-23	1,243.47	1,242.73	-10.01	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-05-16	1,243.47	1,242.68	-9.43	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-05-09	1,243.47	1,242.63	-7.11	0	Deceleration	93	77
2025-05-02	1,242.97	1,242.58	-5.84	0	Deceleration	57	64
2025-04-25	1,242.97	1,242.55	-7.27	0	Deceleration	57	65
2025-04-18	1,242.97	1,242.52	-0.72	0	Deceleration	57	65
2025-04-11	1,242.97	1,242.48	2.36	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2025-04-04	1,242.97	1,242.45	2.67	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2025-03-28	1,242.97	1,242.42	-0.38	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2025-03-21	1,242.97	1,242.38	0.75	0	Upward Expansion	67	87
2025-03-14	1,242.97	1,242.35	1.29	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2025-03-07	1,242.97	1,242.32	0.78	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-02-28	1,242.97	1,242.29	1.90	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-02-21	1,242.97	1,242.24	-0.63	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-02-14	1,242.97	1,242.19	-1.11	0	Deceleration	93	97
2025-02-07	1,242.47	1,242.14	1.36	0	Deceleration	57	63
2025-01-31	1,242.47	1,242.10	4.75	0	Deceleration	57	64
2025-01-24	1,242.47	1,242.07	4.74	0	Deceleration	57	65
2025-01-17	1,242.47	1,242.04	7.97	0	Deceleration	57	65
2025-01-10	1,242.47	1,242.00	9.00	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2025-01-03	1,242.47	1,241.97	10.72	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-12-27	1,242.47	1,241.94	10.32	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-12-20	1,242.47	1,241.90	10.04	0	Upward Expansion	67	69
2024-12-13	1,242.47	1,241.87	6.06	0	Upward Expansion	67	69
2024-12-06	1,242.47	1,240.90	6.87	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-11-29	1,242.47	1,239.94	10.35	0	Upward Expansion	95	78
2024-11-22	1,242.47	1,238.96	9.23	0	Upward Expansion	95	78
2024-11-15	1,242.47	1,237.97	9.30	0	Deceleration	93	78
2024-11-08	1,241.97	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-11-01	1,241.97	1,236.03	9.11	0	Deceleration	58	65
2024-10-25	1,241.97	1,235.06	6.74	0	Deceleration	58	65
2024-10-18	1,241.97	1,234.09	4.17	0	Deceleration	58	65
2024-10-11	1,241.97	1,233.13	5.27	0	Deceleration	58	65
2024-10-04	1,241.97	1,232.16	4.77	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2024-09-27	1,241.97	1,231.20	4.36	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-09-20	1,241.97	1,230.23	5.51	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-09-13	1,241.97	1,229.27	5.90	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-09-06	1,241.97	1,228.28	7.86	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-08-30	1,241.97	1,227.30	4.24	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-08-23	1,241.97	1,226.32	3.17	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-08-16	1,241.97	1,225.34	2.08	0	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-08-09	1,241.97	1,224.36	4.08	0	Deceleration	66	67
2024-08-02	1,241.47	1,223.37	5.71	0	Deceleration	57	64
2024-07-26	1,241.47	1,222.41	4.67	0	Deceleration	57	65
2024-07-19	1,241.47	1,221.44	3.12	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2024-07-12	1,241.47	1,220.48	0.78	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-07-05	1,241.47	1,219.51	5.83	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-06-28	1,241.47	1,218.55	5.73	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-06-21	1,241.47	1,217.58	5.12	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-06-14	1,241.47	1,216.61	6.33	0	Upward Expansion	88	96
2024-06-07	1,241.47	1,215.65	4.97	0	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-05-31	1,241.47	1,214.67	0.88	0	Upward Expansion	97	96
2024-05-24	1,241.47	1,213.68	0.43	20	Upward Expansion	96	78
2024-05-17	1,213.50	1,212.70	-5.53	0	Upward Expansion	94	78
2024-05-10	1,213.50	1,212.65	-5.85	0	Deceleration	93	77
2024-05-03	1,213.00	1,212.60	-5.02	0	Deceleration	57	65
2024-04-26	1,213.00	1,212.57	-6.23	0	Deceleration	57	65
2024-04-19	1,213.00	1,212.54	-3.01	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2024-04-12	1,213.00	1,212.50	-4.27	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-04-05	1,213.00	1,212.47	-6.85	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-03-29	1,213.00	1,212.44	-5.81	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-03-22	1,213.00	1,212.40	-4.66	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-03-15	1,213.00	1,212.37	-4.14	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-03-08	1,213.00	1,212.34	-2.03	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-03-01	1,213.00	1,212.30	-3.16	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-02-23	1,213.00	1,212.27	-5.13	0	Deceleration	93	98
2024-02-16	1,212.50	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-09	1,212.50	1,212.22	-6.50	0	Deceleration	56	62
2024-02-02	1,212.50	1,212.20	-8.20	0	Deceleration	57	63
2024-01-26	1,212.50	1,212.19	-6.22	0	Deceleration	57	64
2024-01-19	1,212.50	1,212.17	-4.01	0	Deceleration	57	65
2024-01-12	1,212.50	1,212.15	-4.43	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2024-01-05	1,212.50	1,212.14	-5.59	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2023-12-29	1,212.50	1,212.12	-7.80	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2023-12-22	1,212.50	1,212.10	-8.09	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2023-12-15	1,212.50	1,212.09	-8.12	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2023-12-08	1,212.50	1,212.07	-3.86	0	Upward Expansion	86	95
2023-12-01	1,212.50	1,212.05	-2.82	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2023-11-24	1,212.50	1,212.04	-0.85	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2023-11-17	1,212.50	1,212.02	-0.12	0	Deceleration	93	97
2023-11-10	1,212.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-03	1,212.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-27	1,212.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-20	1,212.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-13	1,212.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-06	1,212.00	—	—	0	Not yet classified	—	—

Price vs TrendAbove+35.0%

Trend directionRising+29.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+182.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-82.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+80.5%

Relative strength directionWeakening-83.8%

Price momentumPositive+130.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.62×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

64 / ±100

+31.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

45 /100

+1.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SIMON Directional State ↗ SIMON Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance36

Rotation Up45

Upward Expansion64

Deceleration68

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 147 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 70%Deceleration 25%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	+11.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	-15.0%
Rotation Up	2026-06-05	2026-06-19	New	+3.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-05-29	Established	+153.1%
Rotation Up	2026-01-16	2026-01-30	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-01-09	New	+19.0%
Rotation Up	2025-12-19	2025-12-26	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-12-12	Established	+24.3%
Deceleration	2025-07-11	2025-07-18	New	+7.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-07-04	Developing	+0.0%
Deceleration	2025-04-18	2025-05-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-04-11	Developing	+0.0%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-02-14	Developing	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-01-10	Developing	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing0

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution73

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 76/100
Current Relative Strength: 80.48
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +130.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +132.6%
Technology regime cohort: 38th percentile29 in cohort

Test SIMON trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume5.17×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.62×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SIMON Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 4,557.64rising

Slow Activity MXN 4,259.40rising

Trend Reference MXN 3,711.29+35.0% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 1,773.31+182.6% close margin

Structural low MXN 2,177.81shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +126.6%

From structural high -14.1%

From structural low +275.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	24	+0.0%-16.6% to +36.2%	+45.8%	+45.8%	-1.7%	+41.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	+0.0%-18.7% to +14.8%	+81.8%	+81.8%	+1.2%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+1.2%-10.9% to +13.3%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+1.7%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+2.5%+1.0% to +7.4%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+8.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SIMON Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map