Weekly structural research ยท NASDAQ ยท Technology

CDNS Stage Analysis

Cadence Design Systems Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 352.84Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Rotation Down ยท Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

  • The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction 10โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 13/100directional strength
Maturity 55/100lifecycle context
Confidence 55/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Mixedstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +16.0%USD 304.10 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-09352.84334.72-4.998273581Rotation Down1013
2026-10-02351.35332.53-5.5012982539Rotation Down-212
2026-09-25326.13330.71-12.0514009270Rotation Down-3452
2026-09-18282.90329.89-21.6513675432Rotation Down-4863
2026-09-11289.37330.34-19.8311184507Rotation Down-3853
2026-09-04292.70330.67-19.9312849372Deceleration-3947
2026-08-28340.39330.37-7.2711738821Deceleration121
2026-08-21319.02328.90-13.199605726Deceleration-2835
2026-08-14324.82328.87-14.3610712950Deceleration-421
2026-08-07339.24328.63-10.119118604Deceleration622
2026-07-31340.02328.23-5.8216764118Deceleration1822
2026-07-24326.24327.24-9.6412157147Deceleration1619
2026-07-17330.11327.00-10.4010875705Upward Expansion3020
2026-07-10384.17326.49-0.387400109Upward Expansion6347
2026-07-03373.14324.46-1.679359300Upward Expansion6149
2026-06-26377.27323.270.0313167408Upward Expansion6455
2026-06-19387.39321.09-1.9912972003Upward Expansion7268
2026-06-12384.96318.20-0.1510456815Upward Expansion7475
2026-06-05376.19315.86-0.3017087010Upward Expansion7278
2026-05-29374.93314.16-5.219433972Upward Expansion7786
2026-05-22373.59312.95-2.989600353Rotation Up8286
2026-05-15347.24312.00-9.0610139261Rotation Up3968
2026-05-08362.70311.30-5.7511727367Rotation Up4454
2026-05-01340.94310.11-6.9315773056Downward Expansion3133
2026-04-24332.89310.32-8.1313583116Downward Expansion-610
2026-04-17311.03310.89-12.6211716156Downward Expansion-4329
2026-04-10265.66312.97-21.0610064645Downward Expansion-7264
2026-04-03278.72315.56-13.907310145Downward Expansion-6255
2026-03-27271.77317.97-12.9413171486Downward Expansion-7053
2026-03-20283.90320.60-12.199447403Downward Expansion-6240
2026-03-13287.03322.79-13.1511009912Downward Expansion-6239
2026-03-06296.94324.88-11.1613939323Downward Expansion-5435
2026-02-27301.40326.72-10.9516152287Downward Expansion-5648
2026-02-20296.28328.57-12.6814739841Downward Expansion-6064
2026-02-13299.46329.77-10.7514935923Downward Expansion-5963
2026-02-06283.52330.31-16.7319609112Downward Expansion-7766
2026-01-30296.36331.54-14.9910389609Balance-7041
2026-01-23318.32332.56-9.126605539Balance-5126
2026-01-16317.45332.12-9.459215866Balance-5127
2026-01-09327.31331.38-7.6911220585Balance-3925
2026-01-02310.40330.47-10.744302967Balance-5936
2025-12-26318.89330.03-10.132918613Balance-1310
2025-12-19314.91328.96-10.3811282638Rotation Down-2818
2025-12-12323.22328.98-7.745737514Rotation Down-2422
2025-12-05337.53328.93-5.659021307Rotation Down-1328
2025-11-28311.84327.87-12.107244912Rotation Down-2349
2025-11-21300.58327.75-11.388299921Balance-3648
2025-11-14314.93327.38-10.358701762Balance-2524
2025-11-07325.05325.56-7.8111536157Balance110
2025-10-31338.69323.37-7.0712855042Balance1315
2025-10-24345.10319.85-3.618103984Upward Expansion2720
2025-10-17326.12316.90-6.818197089Upward Expansion1817
2025-10-10327.00314.78-4.237067114Upward Expansion3223
2025-10-03347.27312.12-0.676266237Upward Expansion5540
2025-09-26350.11308.661.438025273Upward Expansion5643
2025-09-19373.35305.347.7511304223Upward Expansion7653
2025-09-12343.48301.501.4514081604Upward Expansion5846
2025-09-05351.01299.895.644364913Upward Expansion6456
2025-08-29350.43298.186.716197044Upward Expansion6469
2025-08-22349.63296.426.347338202Upward Expansion6574
2025-08-15349.88295.455.566884635Upward Expansion6982
2025-08-08352.06293.976.777483065Upward Expansion7682
2025-08-01356.97292.2012.3416326181Upward Expansion8684
2025-07-25332.19290.432.538145838Upward Expansion7476
2025-07-18315.57289.53-1.647573575Upward Expansion5862
2025-07-11320.60289.061.107605374Upward Expansion6562
2025-07-04326.81288.602.476520029Deceleration7045
2025-06-27305.20287.95-3.0910238073Deceleration1614
2025-06-20295.40288.01-2.606422081Rotation Up1110
2025-06-13300.00288.56-1.467582525Rotation Up1617
2025-06-06296.95288.21-3.288312210Rotation Up2127
2025-05-30287.07288.36-4.8017649475Rotation Up2550
2025-05-23315.51288.196.357246258Rotation Up3365
2025-05-16321.56286.255.758720927Rotation Up4054
2025-05-09305.78284.157.378301815Downward Expansion2935
2025-05-02308.15283.377.9214252544Downward Expansion218
2025-04-25289.63282.054.859183932Downward Expansion-2316
2025-04-18260.22281.540.097396848Downward Expansion-4534
2025-04-11259.47281.99-2.7615337182Downward Expansion-5741
2025-04-04232.88282.30-6.5712739280Downward Expansion-7756
2025-03-28256.69282.78-7.647774171Rotation Down-6364
2025-03-21262.42283.19-8.2514704525Rotation Down-3768
2025-03-14247.43283.57-13.7812467673Rotation Down-4373
2025-03-07243.21284.69-17.8111485748Rotation Down-4470
2025-02-28250.50285.59-18.6314629236Balance-4157
2025-02-21258.34285.56-19.5018620109Balance-1624
2025-02-14295.19285.58-10.667186476Balance3518
2025-02-07299.68285.07-7.045707386Upward Expansion3824
2025-01-31297.62285.60-7.9810013240Upward Expansion5029
2025-01-24320.48286.38-2.676546498Upward Expansion6739
2025-01-17305.60285.96-6.037874132Upward Expansion4427
2025-01-10299.00286.39-5.755347299Upward Expansion4226
2025-01-03303.86286.82-6.524421080Upward Expansion5535
2024-12-27305.03286.51-7.033550752Rotation Up5839
2024-12-20301.47285.88-7.529996690Rotation Up3338
2024-12-13306.75285.64-8.287813355Rotation Up3758
2024-12-06307.51285.05-7.629842466Rotation Up3959
2024-11-29306.81284.38-5.044909406Rotation Up3057
2024-11-22311.87283.54-3.007256927Balance3649
2024-11-15289.71282.56-8.457751675Balance1823
2024-11-08301.25282.24-8.389970881Balance67
2024-11-01282.09282.40-9.8017299875Downward Expansion-2715
2024-10-25257.30283.26-19.2911323619Downward Expansion-5832
2024-10-18258.52285.06-19.1412245988Downward Expansion-4621
2024-10-11282.39287.20-11.886805410Downward Expansion-2916
2024-10-04268.65287.74-15.437099766Downward Expansion-3920
2024-09-27274.13289.07-13.916872181Downward Expansion-4128
2024-09-20273.76290.44-13.389332163Downward Expansion-5335
2024-09-13268.72291.43-13.919326434Downward Expansion-5438
2024-09-06247.52292.15-16.167792371Downward Expansion-7345
2024-08-30268.93294.30-14.419218301Downward Expansion-5736
2024-08-23273.90295.22-13.726525719Downward Expansion-5756
2024-08-16281.00295.78-10.757505227Downward Expansion-5868
2024-08-09270.13296.15-9.5916614473Downward Expansion-5865
2024-08-02249.63296.09-16.1916122968Balance-7869
2024-07-26258.79296.20-15.9415777527Balance-3427
2024-07-19279.95296.65-11.5612707977Upward Expansion1512
2024-07-12315.67296.51-4.395522914Upward Expansion5963
2024-07-05321.11295.04-3.014456092Upward Expansion6766
2024-06-28307.75293.00-3.677589333Upward Expansion5149
2024-06-21318.39291.75-0.399097180Deceleration5642
2024-06-14312.10290.16-2.057666979Deceleration4827
2024-06-07294.42288.70-4.356525779Deceleration2011
2024-05-31286.31287.61-4.498853283Deceleration37
2024-05-24294.28286.38-3.436279288Deceleration613
2024-05-17288.81284.27-3.986487113Deceleration218
2024-05-10287.48282.59-2.355133389Deceleration122
2024-05-03281.63281.35-2.818199404Upward Expansion-219
2024-04-26282.41280.10-1.5113980785Upward Expansion1116
2024-04-19280.25278.491.598838862Upward Expansion1913
2024-04-12305.85276.844.895374844Upward Expansion5540
2024-04-05308.02274.455.175361020Upward Expansion5742
2024-03-29311.28272.115.564980467Upward Expansion6047
2024-03-22322.74269.869.008198674Upward Expansion7656
2024-03-15298.44266.854.007350213Upward Expansion6251
2024-03-08308.60264.256.317034107Upward Expansion6655
2024-03-01315.24261.507.056116637Upward Expansion7863
2024-02-23303.53258.635.316472812Upward Expansion7070
2024-02-16290.30256.322.2512732861Upward Expansion6679
2024-02-09311.94254.748.326522207Upward Expansion8793
2024-02-02296.55252.365.205397398Upward Expansion8084
2024-01-26290.73250.044.647909121Upward Expansion7855
2024-01-19292.14248.175.998410495Upward Expansion8251
2024-01-12268.50245.940.357304402Upward Expansion4934
2024-01-05252.71244.85-2.365693419Upward Expansion4837
2023-12-29272.37244.072.073433589Upward Expansion6451
2023-12-22275.82242.653.886561650Upward Expansion7356
2023-12-15271.52241.063.4410439598Upward Expansion7068
2023-12-08259.93239.242.567829506Upward Expansion6575
2023-12-01270.35237.287.546846260Upward Expansion7083
2023-11-24270.61235.118.083659878Upward Expansion7682
2023-11-17268.27233.078.467692215Upward Expansion7770
2023-11-10261.56231.238.256328264Upward Expansion7447
2023-11-03249.54229.666.627597644Upward Expansion6237
2023-10-27230.87228.295.488601501Upward Expansion4228
2023-10-20238.64227.606.587097808Upward Expansion5243
Price vs TrendAbove+5.4%
Trend directionRising+2.0%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+16.0%
Fair Value directionMoving away-13.5%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.0%
Relative strength directionWeakening-4.6%
Price momentumPositive+32.8%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.71ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

10 / ยฑ100

+48.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

13 /100

-39.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance52
Rotation Up47
Upward Expansion28
Deceleration47
Rotation Down23
Downward Expansion30

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 21%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Rotation Down2026-09-112026-10-09Developing+21.9%
Deceleration2026-07-242026-09-04Developing-10.3%
Upward Expansion2026-05-292026-07-17Developing-12.0%
Rotation Up2026-05-082026-05-22New+3.0%
Downward Expansion2026-02-062026-05-01Established+20.3%
Balance2025-12-262026-01-30Developing-7.1%
Rotation Down2025-11-282025-12-19New+1.0%
Balance2025-10-312025-11-21New-11.3%
Upward Expansion2025-07-112025-10-24Established+7.6%
Deceleration2025-06-272025-07-04New+7.1%
Rotation Up2025-05-162025-06-20Developing-8.1%
Downward Expansion2025-04-042025-05-09Developing+31.3%
Rotation Down2025-03-072025-03-28New+5.5%
Balance2025-02-142025-02-28New-15.1%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing23
Stage 2 ยท Advancing71
Stage 3 ยท Distribution75
Stage 4 ยท Declining29

Legacy result: Stage 3 ยท Stage 3B ยท Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
47/100
Current Relative Strength
-4.99
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+32.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+9.9%
Technology regime cohort
4th percentile23 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.71ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.71ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 333.54rising
Slow Activity USD 337.11falling
Trend Reference USD 334.72+5.4% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 304.10+16.0% close margin
Structural low USD 265.22shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +8.9%
Annualized volatility +49.1%
From structural high -15.3%
From structural low +34.3%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs QQQ Regime survived Read
Near term7+3.9%-4.2% to +21.9%+71.4%+28.6%+2.6%+42.9%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate4+8.2%-3.3% to +22.1%+75.0%+25.0%+11.9%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended4+31.2%+20.2% to +44.3%+100.0%+0.0%+23.0%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2+24.7%+22.1% to +27.2%+100.0%+0.0%+21.0%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context