Weekly structural research · NYSE · Industrials

AIT Stage Analysis

Applied Industrial Technologies

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 343.45Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 26−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 13/100directional strength

Maturity 44/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +42.7%USD 240.68 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	343.45	315.63	7.93	1203819	Deceleration	26	13
2026-09-25	333.39	313.09	4.82	1243067	Deceleration	9	16
2026-09-18	321.84	311.38	2.65	2020719	Deceleration	4	20
2026-09-11	323.78	310.03	3.31	1080004	Deceleration	24	25
2026-09-04	325.57	308.55	3.19	1395462	Upward Expansion	37	21
2026-08-28	322.22	307.39	2.30	1321003	Upward Expansion	46	37
2026-08-21	341.62	305.30	9.01	1403592	Upward Expansion	64	56
2026-08-14	361.95	303.22	14.09	1664734	Upward Expansion	77	72
2026-08-07	359.39	300.50	13.82	1010684	Upward Expansion	80	67
2026-07-31	344.72	297.56	13.27	1245360	Upward Expansion	69	59
2026-07-24	346.57	294.69	15.32	1207365	Upward Expansion	76	62
2026-07-17	335.94	291.94	11.34	1815025	Upward Expansion	67	60
2026-07-10	330.68	289.46	8.08	1429015	Upward Expansion	65	76
2026-07-03	330.85	287.13	9.77	1106166	Upward Expansion	65	81
2026-06-26	337.08	284.67	14.53	1590612	Upward Expansion	79	85
2026-06-19	337.96	282.03	12.55	1896916	Upward Expansion	86	80
2026-06-12	320.11	279.03	7.95	1178501	Upward Expansion	75	62
2026-06-05	315.29	276.63	7.20	925246	Upward Expansion	73	58
2026-05-29	303.81	274.71	0.90	871156	Upward Expansion	64	67
2026-05-22	307.10	273.10	3.55	951389	Upward Expansion	68	77
2026-05-15	307.17	271.50	4.61	1096774	Upward Expansion	72	80
2026-05-08	308.36	269.48	5.32	1338018	Upward Expansion	76	81
2026-05-01	302.49	267.36	5.88	1982724	Upward Expansion	73	74
2026-04-24	292.86	265.84	3.56	970938	Balance	63	57
2026-04-17	290.55	264.75	3.17	1380769	Balance	60	40
2026-04-10	288.53	263.70	7.02	1474336	Balance	46	18
2026-04-03	266.68	262.81	2.48	942131	Balance	-11	19
2026-03-27	260.24	262.72	3.38	1751240	Balance	-10	22
2026-03-20	253.35	262.78	-1.59	2497567	Balance	-9	17
2026-03-13	255.23	263.19	-2.69	1562576	Upward Expansion	18	12
2026-03-06	267.34	263.14	0.33	1218266	Upward Expansion	51	30
2026-02-27	282.11	262.94	3.76	1193580	Upward Expansion	61	55
2026-02-20	281.50	262.28	2.96	897663	Upward Expansion	60	41
2026-02-13	279.38	261.90	3.32	2210269	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-02-06	290.73	261.22	6.00	2309322	Upward Expansion	76	66
2026-01-30	259.51	259.93	-5.64	2786066	Upward Expansion	53	53
2026-01-23	279.17	259.41	1.63	1268514	Upward Expansion	71	69
2026-01-16	280.23	257.78	1.55	1607604	Upward Expansion	76	65
2026-01-09	271.30	255.95	-2.15	1358941	Balance	66	51
2026-01-02	258.73	254.38	-5.34	683816	Balance	41	32
2025-12-26	263.86	253.43	-4.63	644310	Deceleration	55	40
2025-12-19	261.50	252.13	-4.24	2553279	Deceleration	49	27
2025-12-12	260.83	250.79	-4.48	1530299	Deceleration	39	18
2025-12-05	257.01	249.91	-6.64	1164294	Deceleration	29	13
2025-11-28	257.92	248.63	-6.34	939772	Deceleration	21	10
2025-11-21	248.06	247.54	-6.95	1343360	Deceleration	6	7
2025-11-14	248.10	247.15	-9.10	1134014	Deceleration	7	7
2025-11-07	257.54	246.21	-5.89	1405014	Deceleration	19	11
2025-10-31	255.72	245.08	-8.36	1582882	Deceleration	14	13
2025-10-24	258.91	243.52	-6.69	1447911	Deceleration	18	16
2025-10-17	246.60	242.34	-9.48	1628402	Deceleration	5	13
2025-10-10	244.73	241.54	-8.71	1318992	Deceleration	19	15
2025-10-03	257.04	240.80	-6.51	1031693	Upward Expansion	40	25
2025-09-26	260.04	239.83	-4.37	896200	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-09-19	259.07	239.44	-4.99	1397561	Upward Expansion	55	38
2025-09-12	261.79	238.92	-2.78	938160	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-09-05	264.03	238.96	-0.24	686413	Upward Expansion	62	45
2025-08-29	262.18	238.81	-0.37	1097849	Upward Expansion	62	47
2025-08-22	265.69	238.64	1.13	1284555	Upward Expansion	69	53
2025-08-15	253.66	238.38	-2.98	1984080	Upward Expansion	63	69
2025-08-08	261.26	238.41	1.05	1429556	Rotation Up	66	81
2025-08-01	262.30	237.77	4.18	1878291	Rotation Up	42	73
2025-07-25	270.20	237.11	4.97	1539336	Rotation Up	56	76
2025-07-18	258.85	236.07	2.23	1673190	Rotation Up	36	59
2025-07-11	252.11	235.37	0.40	1989176	Balance	30	41
2025-07-04	243.99	235.61	-2.82	2059924	Balance	-2	7
2025-06-27	230.04	236.51	-6.60	8689342	Balance	-25	11
2025-06-20	225.58	237.90	-5.16	1651423	Downward Expansion	-45	21
2025-06-13	224.06	239.52	-5.79	1276046	Downward Expansion	-40	20
2025-06-06	230.18	240.84	-3.39	1314348	Downward Expansion	-35	16
2025-05-30	224.91	242.00	-3.88	1380875	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2025-05-23	221.23	242.13	-3.70	1544070	Downward Expansion	-41	22
2025-05-16	234.48	242.37	-0.46	2346375	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2025-05-09	218.51	242.19	-2.23	2494889	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2025-05-02	225.39	242.36	0.47	2900384	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2025-04-25	236.39	242.15	8.64	1971076	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2025-04-18	219.74	241.62	6.02	1654060	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-04-11	223.74	241.50	6.68	2607198	Rotation Down	-62	60
2025-04-04	208.94	240.75	5.51	2075079	Rotation Down	-51	70
2025-03-28	223.49	240.17	2.81	1432387	Rotation Down	-41	66
2025-03-21	222.50	239.47	0.98	2476535	Rotation Down	-35	61
2025-03-14	222.67	238.90	1.66	1723400	Balance	-36	38
2025-03-07	227.92	238.12	1.82	2059820	Balance	-9	16
2025-02-28	248.31	236.99	7.70	1352174	Upward Expansion	27	17
2025-02-21	243.48	235.26	4.82	1054272	Upward Expansion	35	27
2025-02-14	262.93	234.21	11.58	943084	Upward Expansion	66	59
2025-02-07	259.41	232.15	12.03	1394190	Upward Expansion	53	44
2025-01-31	257.23	229.86	11.22	2143588	Deceleration	58	38
2025-01-24	257.85	227.51	10.69	851263	Deceleration	51	30
2025-01-17	254.61	225.30	11.55	1334349	Deceleration	39	26
2025-01-10	242.16	223.01	9.58	2087329	Deceleration	29	32
2025-01-03	242.39	220.98	7.90	1054231	Deceleration	35	34
2024-12-27	238.95	219.06	6.14	669302	Upward Expansion	44	33
2024-12-20	237.99	217.44	6.62	2685003	Upward Expansion	54	53
2024-12-13	259.24	215.94	14.24	1232042	Upward Expansion	68	76
2024-12-06	270.87	213.77	19.04	1076165	Upward Expansion	70	89
2024-11-29	271.76	211.21	21.02	1291459	Upward Expansion	78	92
2024-11-22	274.12	208.26	24.11	1141522	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-11-15	263.85	205.05	22.10	1176929	Upward Expansion	90	94
2024-11-08	264.97	202.28	20.63	1727069	Upward Expansion	95	93
2024-11-01	228.69	199.71	9.51	920764	Upward Expansion	70	78
2024-10-25	228.49	198.52	8.14	1693631	Upward Expansion	71	77
2024-10-18	229.25	197.39	7.64	890934	Upward Expansion	77	82
2024-10-11	223.43	196.21	5.97	891808	Upward Expansion	70	77
2024-10-04	219.16	194.98	5.25	877492	Upward Expansion	69	70
2024-09-27	220.35	193.75	6.22	1012516	Upward Expansion	73	59
2024-09-20	216.11	192.71	4.91	1853894	Upward Expansion	69	38
2024-09-13	201.50	191.70	-0.67	966381	Upward Expansion	42	24
2024-09-06	191.26	191.18	-1.90	873466	Upward Expansion	32	20
2024-08-30	202.63	190.96	-0.36	1293060	Upward Expansion	54	32
2024-08-23	205.42	190.19	1.37	1342708	Upward Expansion	60	34
2024-08-16	199.11	189.14	-0.27	1321981	Upward Expansion	53	40
2024-08-09	194.25	188.24	1.32	1401966	Upward Expansion	55	58
2024-08-02	196.44	187.30	2.61	1505911	Upward Expansion	58	62
2024-07-26	212.01	186.15	8.72	1235538	Upward Expansion	82	74
2024-07-19	200.93	184.74	2.62	1747709	Balance	67	50
2024-07-12	190.85	183.72	-4.18	1623732	Balance	46	22
2024-07-05	186.79	183.02	-5.20	749986	Balance	25	12
2024-06-28	191.29	182.20	-0.99	1466179	Balance	35	18
2024-06-21	185.93	181.25	-3.67	1517672	Balance	15	13
2024-06-14	181.52	180.41	-5.21	1044057	Balance	11	6
2024-06-07	184.54	179.70	-1.90	1115814	Upward Expansion	47	31
2024-05-31	190.30	178.85	2.63	905834	Upward Expansion	54	50
2024-05-24	192.98	177.64	3.97	1353966	Upward Expansion	59	45
2024-05-17	194.24	176.13	5.00	731919	Deceleration	62	35
2024-05-10	194.21	174.68	7.07	1429434	Deceleration	50	26
2024-05-03	183.03	173.42	3.15	1554052	Deceleration	28	24
2024-04-26	178.03	172.42	1.19	1855117	Upward Expansion	31	20
2024-04-19	180.54	171.54	5.50	1203872	Upward Expansion	48	36
2024-04-12	188.06	170.58	6.70	969919	Upward Expansion	63	54
2024-04-05	193.01	169.44	8.19	1250099	Upward Expansion	68	60
2024-03-29	194.42	168.15	8.37	1323412	Upward Expansion	75	61
2024-03-22	194.07	166.80	8.73	2199022	Upward Expansion	80	62
2024-03-15	186.48	165.37	7.06	8332012	Upward Expansion	67	58
2024-03-08	182.08	163.97	4.65	2068577	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-03-01	189.32	162.87	8.57	928692	Upward Expansion	78	89
2024-02-23	185.60	161.17	7.58	730011	Upward Expansion	74	87
2024-02-16	186.05	159.65	9.75	1063429	Upward Expansion	80	89
2024-02-09	184.59	158.12	8.65	1166794	Upward Expansion	83	87
2024-02-02	179.68	156.68	7.39	962721	Upward Expansion	81	74
2024-01-26	173.94	155.37	5.54	1396447	Upward Expansion	72	49
2024-01-19	171.89	154.29	5.46	673754	Upward Expansion	71	48
2024-01-12	166.28	153.03	3.55	639124	Upward Expansion	59	45
2024-01-05	161.96	151.93	2.96	586216	Upward Expansion	63	51
2023-12-29	169.62	150.92	6.39	545339	Upward Expansion	70	72
2023-12-22	170.36	149.59	7.42	1036312	Upward Expansion	77	73
2023-12-15	169.81	148.09	8.27	1168945	Upward Expansion	81	75
2023-12-08	162.24	146.64	6.20	861972	Upward Expansion	66	68
2023-12-01	162.77	145.45	7.00	1211157	Upward Expansion	70	73
2023-11-24	160.67	144.24	6.72	690586	Upward Expansion	69	69
2023-11-17	160.22	143.29	7.66	1088733	Upward Expansion	69	47
2023-11-10	158.97	142.46	9.50	1089607	Deceleration	68	38
2023-11-03	153.98	141.53	7.80	1070476	Deceleration	45	27
2023-10-27	147.76	140.59	9.65	1360415	Upward Expansion	40	27
2023-10-20	150.81	140.29	9.37	935040	Upward Expansion	55	37
2023-10-13	156.27	139.58	11.04	1163432	Upward Expansion	67	47

Price vs TrendAbove+8.8%

Trend directionRising+7.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+42.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-4.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.9%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.8%

Price momentumPositive+28.8%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.12×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

26 / ±100

-10.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

13 /100

-7.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AIT Directional State ↗ AIT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up26

Upward Expansion47

Deceleration84

Rotation Down32

Downward Expansion30

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 60%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 6%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	+6.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-09-04	Established	+7.6%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-04-24	Developing	+15.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-03-13	Developing	-8.9%
Balance	2026-01-02	2026-01-09	New	+4.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2025-12-26	Developing	+7.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-10-03	Developing	+1.3%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-08-08	New	+0.9%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-07-11	New	+9.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-06-20	Developing	+2.7%
Rotation Down	2025-03-21	2025-04-11	New	+0.6%
Balance	2025-03-07	2025-03-14	New	-2.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-02-28	New	-4.3%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-01-31	Developing	+6.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing8

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution65

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 79/100
Current Relative Strength: 7.93
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +28.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +11.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 39th percentile64 in cohort

Test AIT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.91×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.12×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AIT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 332.63falling

Slow Activity USD 329.00rising

Trend Reference USD 315.63+8.8% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 240.68+42.7% close margin

Structural low USD 262.84shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.4%

Annualized volatility +21.2%

From structural high -8.2%

From structural low +44.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+0.4%-5.3% to +20.3%	+53.8%	+53.8%	+0.1%	+38.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+7.5%-13.8% to +16.7%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+3.0%	+12.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+18.4%+0.7% to +24.9%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+6.0%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+23.1%+5.8% to +38.0%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+15.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AIT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map