Weekly structural research · JPX · Industrials

9619 Stage Analysis

Ichinen Holdings Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 18 Sep 2026Close JPY 2,742.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 80−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 72/100directional strength

Maturity 88/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +54.0%JPY 1,780.42 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-18	2,742.00	2,290.19	10.81	155300	Upward Expansion	80	72
2026-09-11	2,637.00	2,269.33	8.22	174700	Upward Expansion	69	69
2026-09-04	2,710.00	2,253.08	9.40	154700	Upward Expansion	74	91
2026-08-28	2,730.00	2,232.47	7.93	161200	Upward Expansion	90	97
2026-08-21	2,699.00	2,210.34	7.37	32900	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-08-14	2,654.00	2,189.90	1.45	36000	Upward Expansion	98	99
2026-08-07	2,599.00	2,171.57	4.03	95900	Upward Expansion	99	99
2026-07-31	2,370.00	2,155.15	-3.34	39500	Upward Expansion	80	93
2026-07-24	2,377.00	2,145.68	-3.62	20300	Upward Expansion	91	96
2026-07-17	2,357.00	2,135.38	-3.84	47100	Upward Expansion	93	95
2026-07-10	2,285.00	2,125.49	-12.91	49700	Upward Expansion	84	86
2026-07-03	2,223.00	2,117.93	-17.00	19300	Upward Expansion	71	78
2026-06-26	2,218.00	2,110.19	-17.00	31900	Upward Expansion	70	68
2026-06-19	2,214.00	2,104.73	-19.60	40500	Upward Expansion	68	56
2026-06-12	2,193.00	2,098.82	-14.43	73700	Upward Expansion	63	35
2026-06-05	2,122.00	2,092.41	-18.22	21700	Upward Expansion	36	18
2026-05-29	2,138.00	2,087.18	-17.65	164900	Upward Expansion	38	20
2026-05-22	2,134.00	2,081.75	-14.31	137300	Upward Expansion	48	26
2026-05-15	2,134.00	2,076.97	-11.93	171500	Upward Expansion	51	30
2026-05-08	2,132.00	2,070.23	-14.06	126600	Upward Expansion	54	45
2026-05-01	2,149.00	2,063.75	-9.06	171800	Upward Expansion	56	52
2026-04-24	2,150.00	2,056.81	-9.63	152700	Balance	56	49
2026-04-17	2,156.00	2,051.34	-7.84	136700	Balance	57	42
2026-04-10	2,120.00	2,043.58	-7.27	129300	Balance	47	23
2026-04-03	2,136.00	2,036.73	-0.20	215600	Balance	31	16
2026-03-27	2,073.00	2,024.76	-3.78	192200	Balance	12	17
2026-03-20	2,022.03	2,013.36	-6.40	134700	Balance	6	11
2026-03-13	2,029.87	2,003.55	-7.13	206700	Upward Expansion	27	15
2026-03-06	2,059.28	1,992.49	-9.11	269500	Upward Expansion	55	38
2026-02-27	2,142.59	1,979.97	-10.89	147100	Upward Expansion	67	50
2026-02-20	2,116.13	1,964.16	-9.10	173200	Upward Expansion	61	46
2026-02-13	2,149.45	1,947.50	-8.00	140000	Upward Expansion	74	50
2026-02-06	2,091.62	1,928.32	-6.22	115400	Upward Expansion	61	45
2026-01-30	2,066.14	1,911.64	-5.90	162200	Upward Expansion	60	48
2026-01-23	2,085.74	1,893.83	-6.15	139600	Upward Expansion	63	53
2026-01-16	2,104.36	1,875.39	-5.64	89700	Upward Expansion	70	58
2026-01-09	2,106.32	1,856.40	-2.10	166900	Upward Expansion	72	60
2026-01-02	2,085.74	1,837.75	-0.11	51700	Upward Expansion	72	62
2025-12-26	2,068.10	1,819.89	-1.94	92300	Upward Expansion	68	56
2025-12-19	2,060.26	1,803.33	-0.03	135900	Upward Expansion	69	58
2025-12-12	2,058.30	1,785.45	-2.90	150000	Upward Expansion	71	61
2025-12-05	1,990.67	1,766.90	-5.63	148700	Upward Expansion	63	56
2025-11-28	2,054.38	1,752.88	-2.42	136300	Upward Expansion	74	63
2025-11-21	2,036.73	1,737.35	-0.24	181200	Upward Expansion	73	62
2025-11-14	2,000.47	1,722.50	-5.64	110700	Upward Expansion	69	62
2025-11-07	1,965.18	1,707.97	-7.49	243400	Upward Expansion	63	61
2025-10-31	1,974.99	1,691.53	-11.10	180000	Upward Expansion	69	65
2025-10-24	1,990.67	1,675.31	-5.13	136800	Upward Expansion	77	69
2025-10-17	1,931.86	1,664.30	-4.76	111600	Upward Expansion	67	67
2025-10-10	1,937.74	1,656.12	-5.64	181200	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-10-03	1,940.68	1,645.97	-0.87	226900	Upward Expansion	72	90
2025-09-26	1,985.77	1,634.73	2.20	140100	Upward Expansion	93	97
2025-09-19	1,923.23	1,620.75	-0.36	201600	Upward Expansion	92	97
2025-09-12	1,914.57	1,609.18	-0.42	508500	Upward Expansion	97	98
2025-09-05	1,776.99	1,599.84	-3.90	167200	Upward Expansion	85	93
2025-08-29	1,730.81	1,595.05	-5.81	153700	Upward Expansion	77	90
2025-08-22	1,727.93	1,594.98	-5.90	148600	Rotation Up	83	89
2025-08-15	1,698.10	1,594.03	-9.17	192600	Rotation Up	53	75
2025-08-08	1,683.67	1,592.69	-6.70	187100	Rotation Up	42	64
2025-08-01	1,668.28	1,593.21	-5.40	234500	Balance	39	48
2025-07-25	1,616.32	1,598.08	-9.73	168600	Balance	3	13
2025-07-18	1,573.99	1,603.83	-8.58	97900	Downward Expansion	-28	13
2025-07-11	1,591.31	1,609.86	-7.05	210300	Downward Expansion	-27	16
2025-07-04	1,531.66	1,615.57	-11.00	184000	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2025-06-27	1,532.62	1,623.58	-11.69	209500	Downward Expansion	-51	27
2025-06-20	1,534.54	1,630.90	-7.65	108800	Downward Expansion	-51	26
2025-06-13	1,547.05	1,639.53	-5.49	188600	Downward Expansion	-49	28
2025-06-06	1,549.94	1,650.29	-5.00	148600	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2025-05-30	1,571.10	1,659.58	-4.15	135200	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2025-05-23	1,523.96	1,666.58	-4.96	136600	Downward Expansion	-58	37
2025-05-16	1,501.83	1,671.02	-7.71	257700	Downward Expansion	-64	35
2025-05-09	1,570.14	1,678.73	-2.84	304900	Downward Expansion	-51	28
2025-05-02	1,588.42	1,684.49	0.12	228900	Downward Expansion	-54	39
2025-04-25	1,591.31	1,690.44	3.53	116100	Downward Expansion	-58	57
2025-04-18	1,564.37	1,696.15	4.84	145700	Downward Expansion	-58	60
2025-04-11	1,472.01	1,704.22	2.22	283400	Downward Expansion	-77	53
2025-04-04	1,488.36	1,709.56	2.92	316800	Downward Expansion	-77	43
2025-03-28	1,660.58	1,712.20	4.70	231400	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2025-03-21	1,686.19	1,712.74	4.95	174000	Downward Expansion	-47	35
2025-03-14	1,633.44	1,710.14	3.65	215900	Downward Expansion	-62	68
2025-03-07	1,603.30	1,708.87	2.38	152700	Rotation Down	-64	75
2025-02-28	1,566.56	1,706.87	-0.45	188200	Rotation Down	-50	72
2025-02-21	1,575.98	1,701.60	-3.85	133800	Rotation Down	-54	67
2025-02-14	1,634.38	1,700.94	-1.13	108800	Rotation Down	-33	50
2025-02-07	1,633.44	1,701.06	-0.14	272100	Deceleration	-33	47
2025-01-31	1,728.58	1,699.39	3.76	85300	Deceleration	5	20
2025-01-24	1,699.38	1,693.86	1.28	90100	Deceleration	5	15
2025-01-17	1,657.93	1,690.61	2.76	80000	Deceleration	-2	8
2025-01-10	1,699.38	1,686.52	3.47	151300	Deceleration	23	13
2025-01-03	1,814.31	1,680.24	8.64	32800	Deceleration	46	27
2024-12-27	1,788.87	1,669.29	6.19	130200	Deceleration	38	21
2024-12-20	1,754.96	1,661.08	8.52	106000	Deceleration	35	18
2024-12-13	1,762.50	1,652.15	7.02	131900	Upward Expansion	39	23
2024-12-06	1,771.92	1,644.11	8.76	141900	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-11-29	1,752.13	1,637.26	10.22	114500	Upward Expansion	56	52
2024-11-22	1,793.58	1,631.94	12.84	140100	Upward Expansion	58	60
2024-11-15	1,869.89	1,623.02	16.77	180000	Upward Expansion	70	57
2024-11-08	1,828.44	1,610.81	12.02	182300	Upward Expansion	67	40
2024-11-01	1,781.34	1,603.04	13.51	570900	Upward Expansion	59	32
2024-10-25	1,656.99	1,595.45	6.25	148200	Upward Expansion	51	30
2024-10-18	1,733.29	1,594.50	8.27	104000	Upward Expansion	57	47
2024-10-11	1,742.71	1,589.74	7.38	160000	Upward Expansion	60	63
2024-10-04	1,767.21	1,583.33	11.89	128300	Upward Expansion	65	65
2024-09-27	1,762.50	1,574.98	8.51	205400	Upward Expansion	67	60
2024-09-20	1,806.38	1,566.61	17.60	271500	Balance	76	64
2024-09-13	1,632.32	1,556.19	10.02	422800	Balance	55	44
2024-09-06	1,567.51	1,552.01	6.57	187200	Balance	49	40
2024-08-30	1,676.76	1,546.79	7.61	235600	Balance	64	45
2024-08-23	1,608.25	1,538.43	4.28	144100	Balance	42	18
2024-08-16	1,595.28	1,531.89	4.48	168800	Balance	38	20
2024-08-09	1,543.43	1,527.11	10.12	478800	Balance	10	9
2024-08-02	1,408.26	1,524.22	-1.67	185900	Upward Expansion	3	5
2024-07-26	1,556.40	1,525.62	3.72	135600	Upward Expansion	52	45
2024-07-19	1,637.87	1,521.20	2.83	166700	Deceleration	69	62
2024-07-12	1,583.25	1,513.25	-3.14	190600	Deceleration	52	38
2024-07-05	1,562.88	1,506.82	-3.64	150900	Deceleration	39	26
2024-06-28	1,601.76	1,499.48	2.13	172900	Deceleration	46	21
2024-06-21	1,535.10	1,492.31	0.58	173900	Deceleration	14	9
2024-06-14	1,511.03	1,489.00	-1.39	103500	Deceleration	12	14
2024-06-07	1,486.03	1,486.06	-2.54	119400	Deceleration	7	12
2024-05-31	1,542.51	1,482.08	1.79	173700	Deceleration	31	16
2024-05-24	1,486.96	1,474.48	-2.09	168700	Deceleration	24	13
2024-05-17	1,521.21	1,466.64	-0.17	157600	Deceleration	39	22
2024-05-10	1,566.58	1,457.42	4.34	129000	Deceleration	41	23
2024-05-03	1,592.51	1,447.05	6.07	361900	Deceleration	52	30
2024-04-26	1,525.84	1,435.88	2.43	136500	Upward Expansion	43	27
2024-04-19	1,503.62	1,428.62	3.17	199000	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-04-12	1,595.28	1,421.23	2.61	87600	Upward Expansion	68	60
2024-04-05	1,553.62	1,409.76	1.27	203600	Upward Expansion	66	62
2024-03-29	1,628.62	1,399.18	2.48	221500	Upward Expansion	86	88
2024-03-22	1,590.49	1,385.48	-1.19	135800	Upward Expansion	84	86
2024-03-15	1,550.43	1,371.92	1.73	293500	Upward Expansion	77	80
2024-03-08	1,516.74	1,358.98	-2.96	215800	Upward Expansion	71	80
2024-03-01	1,511.28	1,348.53	-4.00	171400	Upward Expansion	72	68
2024-02-23	1,493.98	1,337.60	-3.26	96800	Upward Expansion	71	53
2024-02-16	1,506.73	1,328.30	-1.01	232800	Upward Expansion	78	50
2024-02-09	1,411.14	1,318.03	-3.35	91700	Upward Expansion	46	34
2024-02-02	1,425.70	1,310.42	-0.45	110200	Upward Expansion	60	47
2024-01-26	1,412.05	1,302.71	-0.34	108700	Upward Expansion	63	53
2024-01-19	1,452.10	1,295.92	1.82	104900	Upward Expansion	69	73
2024-01-12	1,456.66	1,287.30	3.21	121300	Upward Expansion	74	73
2024-01-05	1,450.28	1,279.00	9.52	68600	Upward Expansion	76	60
2023-12-29	1,423.88	1,269.52	7.34	115800	Upward Expansion	71	51
2023-12-22	1,399.30	1,259.96	6.47	118200	Upward Expansion	65	48
2023-12-15	1,390.20	1,252.45	6.45	113300	Upward Expansion	64	53
2023-12-08	1,342.85	1,245.68	5.06	188100	Upward Expansion	64	74
2023-12-01	1,386.55	1,240.73	4.97	120800	Upward Expansion	66	85
2023-11-24	1,435.72	1,235.09	8.19	133900	Upward Expansion	84	92
2023-11-17	1,422.97	1,228.27	7.54	119100	Upward Expansion	87	88
2023-11-10	1,366.53	1,220.44	6.70	218700	Deceleration	80	57
2023-11-03	1,314.63	1,213.59	4.82	190300	Deceleration	71	40
2023-10-27	1,251.81	1,207.44	2.98	106400	Upward Expansion	41	25
2023-10-20	1,244.53	1,203.33	1.50	99000	Upward Expansion	56	41
2023-10-13	1,255.46	1,197.80	-1.03	99200	Upward Expansion	62	63
2023-10-06	1,257.28	1,192.81	3.24	185200	Upward Expansion	64	74
2023-09-29	1,308.26	1,189.75	4.49	251700	Upward Expansion	84	86

Price vs TrendAbove+19.7%

Trend directionRising+7.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+54.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+21.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+10.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+30.4%

Price momentumPositive+35.6%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.76×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

80 / ±100

-15.7 points since 2026-08-21

Energy

72 /100

-26.2 points since 2026-08-21

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

9619 Directional State ↗ 9619 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance4

Rotation Up73

Upward Expansion88

Deceleration66

Rotation Down19

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-09-18 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 60%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 12%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-09-18	Established	+27.6%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-04-24	Developing	+6.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2026-03-13	Extended	+17.3%
Rotation Up	2025-08-08	2025-08-22	New	+2.6%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-08-01	New	+3.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-07-18	Established	-3.6%
Rotation Down	2025-02-14	2025-03-07	New	-1.9%
Deceleration	2024-12-20	2025-02-07	Developing	-6.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-27	2024-12-13	Developing	+0.0%
Balance	2024-08-09	2024-09-20	Developing	+17.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-08-02	New	-9.5%
Deceleration	2024-05-03	2024-07-19	Developing	+2.8%
Upward Expansion	2023-11-17	2024-04-26	Established	+7.2%
Deceleration	2023-11-03	2023-11-10	New	+3.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing18

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 91/100
Current Relative Strength: 10.81
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +35.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +13.8%
Industrials regime cohort: 72th percentile301 in cohort

Test 9619 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.77×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.76×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 9619 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 2,703.13rising

Slow Activity JPY 2,406.93rising

Trend Reference JPY 2,290.19+19.7% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 1,780.42+54.0% close margin

Structural low JPY 1,980.87shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +2.9%

Annualized volatility +16.2%

From structural high -0.8%

From structural low +45.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	36	+1.9%-6.0% to +14.7%	+63.9%	+63.9%	-0.5%	+77.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	+4.3%-7.1% to +27.7%	+84.6%	+84.6%	+0.2%	+61.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+10.4%-8.2% to +27.4%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+1.2%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+14.6%-7.4% to +31.4%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+2.7%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

9619 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map