Weekly structural research · LSE · Financial Services

SAGA Stage Analysis

Saga plc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close GBP 761.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 65−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 28/100directional strength

Maturity 56/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +196.4%GBP 256.74 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	761.00	603.28	49.58	6290187	Deceleration	65	28
2026-09-25	616.00	596.18	20.54	2246140	Deceleration	15	23
2026-09-18	608.00	593.98	21.07	2586143	Deceleration	15	20
2026-09-11	606.00	592.12	22.53	2367349	Deceleration	24	19
2026-09-04	635.00	590.65	28.09	1313111	Upward Expansion	43	31
2026-08-28	679.00	586.82	39.11	247521	Upward Expansion	60	51
2026-08-21	675.00	577.62	40.72	176480	Upward Expansion	63	59
2026-08-14	691.00	568.93	47.60	140556	Upward Expansion	65	68
2026-08-07	738.00	560.32	58.52	347633	Upward Expansion	85	80
2026-07-31	672.00	548.62	48.01	251567	Upward Expansion	70	68
2026-07-24	654.00	539.00	48.70	130964	Upward Expansion	66	74
2026-07-17	660.00	529.90	54.99	328370	Upward Expansion	72	74
2026-07-10	622.00	519.13	50.51	236095	Upward Expansion	59	58
2026-07-03	670.00	508.17	62.38	567432	Upward Expansion	76	58
2026-06-26	608.00	494.80	53.01	1002647	Deceleration	61	32
2026-06-19	556.00	482.83	44.73	1710808	Deceleration	36	21
2026-06-12	574.00	472.60	50.74	530047	Deceleration	42	23
2026-06-05	526.00	462.10	42.33	297607	Deceleration	36	20
2026-05-29	578.00	453.45	58.73	4947707	Upward Expansion	46	29
2026-05-22	555.00	443.27	54.92	5616510	Upward Expansion	46	33
2026-05-15	520.00	433.55	52.16	2075857	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-05-08	604.00	425.17	79.65	2133385	Upward Expansion	67	76
2026-05-01	596.00	414.03	79.61	1619362	Upward Expansion	66	68
2026-04-24	599.00	403.02	84.81	2085817	Upward Expansion	70	58
2026-04-17	625.00	390.12	92.53	5892190	Deceleration	79	56
2026-04-10	551.00	376.05	75.38	2086823	Deceleration	56	37
2026-04-03	486.50	364.50	61.19	3791472	Deceleration	39	26
2026-03-27	485.50	355.43	72.10	8166842	Upward Expansion	45	36
2026-03-20	482.50	346.70	76.02	3194056	Upward Expansion	51	48
2026-03-13	465.00	337.00	68.01	3898607	Upward Expansion	65	63
2026-02-27	548.00	327.70	90.47	2651416	Upward Expansion	67	74
2026-02-20	550.00	315.25	100.50	1961587	Upward Expansion	74	85
2026-02-13	552.00	302.90	111.78	2454576	Upward Expansion	84	77
2026-02-06	562.00	290.39	123.78	5604164	Upward Expansion	94	77
2026-01-30	520.00	277.76	116.63	6418120	Upward Expansion	95	77
2026-01-23	403.00	266.69	74.43	2633073	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-01-16	414.50	259.11	81.82	2627367	Upward Expansion	75	90
2026-01-09	432.50	250.89	96.39	6442817	Upward Expansion	91	97
2026-01-02	387.00	241.44	83.44	1424276	Upward Expansion	82	94
2025-12-26	383.50	233.68	87.28	1113296	Upward Expansion	89	96
2025-12-19	381.00	225.68	89.78	4572018	Upward Expansion	92	95
2025-12-12	337.00	217.73	76.05	3995207	Upward Expansion	86	76
2025-12-05	293.00	211.15	55.80	2235520	Deceleration	74	48
2025-11-28	269.00	206.08	44.59	1525413	Deceleration	51	36
2025-11-21	249.00	201.56	38.31	1168924	Upward Expansion	45	35
2025-11-14	249.00	197.86	37.86	1221635	Upward Expansion	49	42
2025-11-07	259.00	194.06	45.43	943672	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-10-31	266.50	190.03	51.15	994891	Upward Expansion	66	62
2025-10-24	272.50	185.06	57.97	560464	Upward Expansion	73	86
2025-10-17	263.50	180.19	59.96	1156308	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-10-10	268.50	175.48	64.04	1216736	Upward Expansion	78	89
2025-10-03	270.00	170.55	66.04	2572952	Upward Expansion	86	84
2025-09-26	265.50	165.61	69.42	4576381	Upward Expansion	89	66
2025-09-19	212.00	160.80	38.70	1214048	Upward Expansion	65	53
2025-09-12	203.00	157.82	33.45	654182	Upward Expansion	64	65
2025-09-05	204.50	155.35	37.00	1172285	Upward Expansion	64	69
2025-08-29	214.50	153.11	45.77	741504	Upward Expansion	75	76
2025-08-22	223.50	150.09	51.68	1896504	Upward Expansion	86	65
2025-08-15	191.40	146.47	34.31	1026069	Upward Expansion	71	54
2025-08-08	186.00	143.89	32.46	618522	Upward Expansion	69	53
2025-08-01	174.60	141.55	25.99	1980872	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-07-25	179.60	139.91	29.94	564906	Upward Expansion	65	73
2025-07-18	176.60	137.96	30.67	1057109	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-07-11	183.20	136.21	37.39	908042	Upward Expansion	76	90
2025-07-04	187.80	134.23	43.97	1501155	Upward Expansion	86	88
2025-06-27	175.60	131.83	36.35	1999036	Upward Expansion	83	81
2025-06-20	167.80	129.77	31.77	1043704	Upward Expansion	81	70
2025-06-13	149.20	127.83	16.93	1994285	Upward Expansion	63	51
2025-06-06	154.00	126.52	21.27	1506478	Upward Expansion	74	60
2025-05-30	143.60	125.12	14.29	347901	Upward Expansion	63	53
2025-05-23	142.40	124.11	14.00	922859	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-05-16	139.80	123.21	12.44	597335	Upward Expansion	61	55
2025-05-09	140.80	122.81	15.11	756099	Upward Expansion	61	58
2025-05-02	133.40	122.67	8.99	983727	Upward Expansion	54	55
2025-04-25	138.00	122.42	15.46	809913	Upward Expansion	59	52
2025-04-18	135.00	121.51	15.39	1056915	Balance	56	43
2025-04-11	138.00	120.51	22.95	5531554	Balance	61	34
2025-04-04	117.60	119.41	4.01	1338499	Balance	20	9
2025-03-28	126.20	118.80	3.83	1178515	Balance	36	15
2025-03-21	122.20	118.08	0.56	752080	Balance	29	15
2025-03-14	120.80	117.56	-0.57	1042625	Balance	31	16
2025-03-07	121.80	117.11	-0.49	887101	Upward Expansion	45	20
2025-02-28	121.00	116.40	-2.85	842250	Upward Expansion	48	37
2025-02-21	122.80	115.81	-0.03	1059356	Upward Expansion	50	47
2025-02-14	128.80	115.36	3.66	859254	Upward Expansion	53	50
2025-02-07	137.20	114.76	10.70	2145563	Upward Expansion	68	40
2025-01-31	124.00	113.98	0.46	2232915	Upward Expansion	38	18
2025-01-24	115.00	113.56	-5.19	1038533	Upward Expansion	26	13
2025-01-17	114.00	113.40	-6.91	965787	Upward Expansion	30	15
2025-01-10	115.80	113.50	-3.26	1023757	Upward Expansion	50	39
2025-01-03	125.40	113.53	4.43	433652	Balance	58	53
2024-12-27	121.00	113.48	1.23	327447	Balance	48	38
2024-12-20	124.20	114.04	4.20	2569801	Balance	52	31
2024-12-13	123.60	114.27	0.72	994170	Balance	23	13
2024-12-06	116.00	114.40	-5.83	1944596	Balance	-3	6
2024-11-29	113.80	114.28	-7.72	793317	Balance	-9	13
2024-11-22	109.40	114.23	-11.17	723509	Balance	-12	17
2024-11-15	110.00	114.11	-8.86	1166482	Balance	-9	14
2024-11-08	112.00	114.14	-7.74	1026489	Rotation Up	-5	5
2024-11-01	113.20	114.23	-8.27	1177939	Rotation Up	17	30
2024-10-25	115.40	114.32	-7.66	1440661	Rotation Up	23	41
2024-10-18	128.00	114.56	0.93	2024839	Rotation Up	28	48
2024-10-11	136.40	114.32	8.89	4012422	Downward Expansion	41	39
2024-10-04	126.00	113.74	0.40	4280230	Downward Expansion	1	13
2024-09-27	110.80	113.61	-12.02	1552202	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2024-09-20	104.80	114.06	-16.19	929798	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2024-09-13	105.00	114.80	-16.73	996122	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2024-09-06	99.50	115.29	-20.56	1060513	Downward Expansion	-66	44
2024-08-30	104.60	115.76	-18.95	657728	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-08-23	106.60	116.37	-17.72	939028	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2024-08-16	107.20	118.02	-17.77	1221073	Downward Expansion	-58	54
2024-08-09	100.40	119.26	-22.24	1770321	Downward Expansion	-70	60
2024-08-02	103.40	120.66	-20.67	1852762	Downward Expansion	-67	51
2024-07-26	109.40	121.98	-17.67	1206361	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2024-07-19	110.80	123.19	-15.63	1030952	Balance	-58	53
2024-07-12	113.80	123.99	-14.58	1178551	Balance	-52	42
2024-07-05	111.40	124.51	-16.12	878114	Balance	-46	34
2024-06-28	110.20	125.01	-17.07	2474762	Balance	-47	29
2024-06-21	116.80	125.14	-13.13	722856	Balance	-21	11
2024-06-14	116.80	125.33	-12.38	1534631	Rotation Up	4	15
2024-06-07	124.00	125.77	-8.27	1655150	Rotation Up	17	27
2024-05-31	137.80	125.72	1.55	1311939	Balance	31	32
2024-05-24	131.00	125.31	-3.80	1941398	Balance	-9	14
2024-05-17	127.60	124.63	-7.32	2828166	Downward Expansion	-28	20
2024-05-10	112.40	124.20	-18.45	1187568	Downward Expansion	-58	55
2024-05-03	112.20	124.37	-16.55	1922483	Downward Expansion	-59	60
2024-04-26	105.80	124.17	-20.79	3278857	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2024-04-19	110.80	124.78	-14.84	4718991	Downward Expansion	-36	37
2024-04-12	114.80	124.99	-13.05	2070173	Balance	-32	30
2024-04-05	116.00	125.33	-11.43	1768857	Balance	-31	26
2024-03-29	122.40	125.77	-7.19	1397842	Balance	-13	15
2024-03-22	120.80	126.73	-8.37	1563342	Balance	-16	18
2024-03-15	119.00	127.47	-7.60	3899220	Balance	-18	18
2024-03-08	122.20	128.17	-4.44	1719950	Balance	-15	22
2024-03-01	124.40	128.95	-3.47	1542380	Balance	-22	24
2024-02-23	126.80	129.21	-2.46	1404449	Balance	-11	22
2024-02-16	119.80	129.24	-8.39	1207707	Balance	-4	14
2024-02-09	113.60	129.25	-12.28	2758065	Upward Expansion	12	10
2024-02-02	123.00	129.47	-6.34	2955839	Upward Expansion	41	26
2024-01-26	156.00	129.77	17.64	1978680	Upward Expansion	74	65
2024-01-19	144.40	128.56	11.03	1517026	Upward Expansion	63	63
2024-01-12	142.40	127.80	7.15	2421330	Upward Expansion	62	63
2024-01-05	143.00	127.11	6.59	1776663	Balance	53	56
2023-12-29	145.80	126.18	7.96	706046	Balance	39	41
2023-12-22	134.60	125.21	0.35	2239087	Balance	17	13
2023-12-15	129.40	124.43	-1.91	3136235	Balance	19	9
2023-12-08	126.60	123.95	-3.56	1962949	Balance	6	6
2023-12-01	114.00	123.53	-12.67	2020139	Balance	-10	8
2023-11-24	122.60	123.79	-5.42	750313	Balance	1	8
2023-11-17	130.00	124.06	0.41	2735045	Balance	6	7
2023-11-10	122.40	123.91	-3.13	1051702	Balance	-10	10
2023-11-03	125.60	124.17	-1.03	1931713	Rotation Down	-20	17
2023-10-27	110.60	124.15	-10.84	979043	Rotation Down	-25	38
2023-10-20	114.60	124.90	-8.69	1294146	Rotation Down	-20	37
2023-10-13	117.40	125.39	-8.39	2153301	Rotation Down	-20	36
2023-10-06	106.40	125.62	-15.42	2182183	Balance	-32	32

Price vs TrendAbove+26.1%

Trend directionRising+11.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+196.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-19.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+49.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-12.8%

Price momentumPositive+56.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.82×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

65 / ±100

+21.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

28 /100

-3.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SAGA Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance35

Rotation Up33

Upward Expansion60

Deceleration96

Rotation Down34

Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 49%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 11%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	+25.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-09-04	Developing	-5.2%
Deceleration	2026-06-05	2026-06-26	New	+15.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-05-29	Developing	-3.5%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-04-17	New	+28.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-03-27	Established	+44.1%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2025-12-05	New	+8.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-11-21	Extended	+80.4%
Balance	2025-03-14	2025-04-18	Developing	+11.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-10	2025-03-07	Developing	+5.2%
Balance	2024-11-15	2025-01-03	Developing	+14.0%
Rotation Up	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	-12.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-10-11	Developing	+24.7%
Balance	2024-06-21	2024-07-19	Developing	-5.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing0

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution77

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: 49.58
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +56.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +56.2%
Financial Services regime cohort: 98th percentile42 in cohort

Test SAGA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume4.01×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.82×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SAGA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 662.67falling

Slow Activity GBP 634.69rising

Trend Reference GBP 603.28+26.1% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 256.74+196.4% close margin

Structural low GBP 465.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +8.1%

Annualized volatility +57.3%

From structural high -4.5%

From structural low +224.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	+6.1%-8.6% to +42.6%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+7.6%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+15.9%-12.3% to +103.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+14.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-9.5%-20.0% to +95.5%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-13.3%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-31.1%-55.6% to -6.6%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-37.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SAGA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

RMI Reversal Map