Weekly structural research ยท SAU ยท Technology

9558 Stage Analysis

Alqemam for Computer Systems Co.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close SAR 37.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^TASI.SR
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -94โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 90/100directional strength
Maturity 55/100lifecycle context
Confidence 76/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -54.0%SAR 80.39 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-2537.0048.27-33.72526Downward Expansion-9490
2026-09-1838.0048.33-33.601440Downward Expansion-8964
2026-09-1145.0048.93-23.73320Downward Expansion-3132
2026-09-0446.9649.36-21.20270Downward Expansion-4559
2026-08-2847.3849.96-22.64335Downward Expansion-5374
2026-08-2143.8850.87-27.150Downward Expansion-6787
2026-08-1443.8851.98-27.040Downward Expansion-7086
2026-08-0743.8853.08-27.760Downward Expansion-6245
2026-07-3143.8854.18-26.632Downward Expansion-5545
2026-07-2443.8855.29-28.631803Downward Expansion-5341
2026-07-1745.9856.39-25.45918Downward Expansion-5143
2026-07-1043.8857.43-30.130Downward Expansion-6352
2026-07-0343.8858.53-30.943259Downward Expansion-6555
2026-06-2644.0059.63-32.2692Downward Expansion-6568
2026-06-1944.0060.73-34.30119Downward Expansion-6681
2026-06-1244.0061.83-34.773081Downward Expansion-6482
2026-06-0543.8862.93-35.551593Downward Expansion-6780
2026-05-2944.7063.81-35.410Downward Expansion-6874
2026-05-2244.7064.88-36.236059Rotation Down-5640
2026-05-1539.9065.89-43.6117527Rotation Down-5225
2026-05-0868.5066.85-4.733072Balance2334
2026-05-0168.5066.86-6.56160Balance424
2026-04-2470.0066.86-4.36598Downward Expansion-222
2026-04-1761.7066.69-19.30382Downward Expansion-3230
2026-04-1060.0066.84-20.80225Downward Expansion-3930
2026-04-0356.2567.01-25.902240Downward Expansion-4843
2026-03-2752.7567.55-29.9246Downward Expansion-6565
2026-03-2052.7568.19-29.823003Downward Expansion-6768
2026-03-1348.3668.97-36.195124Downward Expansion-6988
2026-03-0636.6069.79-51.8815153Downward Expansion-9699
2026-02-2738.8070.90-49.4916143Downward Expansion-9799
2026-02-2056.0071.95-29.631552Rotation Down-9598
2026-02-1357.8572.64-30.036721Rotation Down-5885
2026-02-0665.0073.38-21.771330Rotation Down-4957
2026-01-3074.8073.87-11.922132Rotation Up3931
2026-01-2377.0074.31-7.620Rotation Up5166
2026-01-1677.0074.79-5.140Rotation Up2131
2026-01-0977.0075.21-2.0822Rotation Up2628
2026-01-0277.0075.71-2.800Rotation Up2935
2025-12-2677.0076.14-2.565Rotation Up3039
2025-12-1977.0076.61-2.000Balance2446
2025-12-1277.0077.08-4.580Balance547
2025-12-0577.0077.54-3.980Balance839
2025-11-2877.0078.01-4.291Balance319
2025-11-2177.0078.51-7.430Balance219
2025-11-1477.0079.00-8.96452Downward Expansion117
2025-11-0770.0079.73-18.53588Downward Expansion-3224
2025-10-3177.0080.58-13.36233Downward Expansion-2123
2025-10-2474.9581.04-15.54866Downward Expansion-4231
2025-10-1768.8082.10-23.24387Downward Expansion-6154
2025-10-1068.6083.55-22.93437Downward Expansion-6475
2025-10-0368.6085.05-22.67977Downward Expansion-6780
2025-09-2665.0086.44-25.77201Downward Expansion-7481
2025-09-1966.1087.76-21.24485Downward Expansion-7363
2025-09-1265.1589.35-20.311555Downward Expansion-7960
2025-09-0572.4090.98-13.592803Downward Expansion-6452
2025-08-2972.0591.73-14.89936Downward Expansion-6759
2025-08-2275.9592.60-11.771177Downward Expansion-6566
2025-08-1572.9593.28-15.42489Downward Expansion-6786
2025-08-0870.0093.85-20.08748Downward Expansion-8192
2025-08-0170.2594.52-19.941486Downward Expansion-8793
2025-07-2576.9095.07-12.99870Downward Expansion-8187
2025-07-1879.8095.63-10.381416Downward Expansion-7676
2025-07-1179.9096.14-12.313827Downward Expansion-8170
2025-07-0488.0096.71-3.11826Downward Expansion-6238
2025-06-2791.4096.952.482179Downward Expansion-5433
2025-06-2089.5096.595.062469Rotation Down-6138
2025-06-1392.0096.616.0875Rotation Down-3128
2025-06-0690.0096.972.652328Rotation Down-3635
2025-05-3091.0096.974.211373Rotation Down-3543
2025-05-2391.0096.932.6429Rotation Down-2546
2025-05-1691.0096.900.32987Rotation Down-2850
2025-05-0991.0096.631.67413Rotation Down-2745
2025-05-0291.9096.631.3413Deceleration-2332
2025-04-2591.9096.50-0.31203Deceleration-2229
2025-04-1898.7096.709.191Deceleration2024
2025-04-1195.5096.646.423421Deceleration1818
2025-04-0490.9096.77-1.6313266Upward Expansion1914
2025-03-28106.8097.0114.6338Upward Expansion5944
2025-03-21112.2096.8823.84230Upward Expansion6354
2025-03-14113.6096.8226.728782Upward Expansion6871
2025-03-07110.4096.7722.882249Upward Expansion6572
2025-02-28104.4096.0414.121815Rotation Up6067
2025-02-21114.0095.9622.431762Rotation Up4662
2025-02-14114.0095.2923.337102Balance4447
2025-02-0795.0094.232.788035Balance39
2025-01-3198.0093.796.315497Balance1010
2025-01-2496.4093.185.091886Balance-2312
2025-01-1790.0092.60-0.896791Balance-1520
2025-01-1090.0092.260.215994Balance-1312
2025-01-0387.0091.87-3.253414Balance85
2024-12-2793.6091.676.017015Balance3219
2024-12-2095.0091.417.16760Balance249
2024-12-1397.0091.017.4111276Deceleration3515
2024-12-0695.4090.556.8078621Deceleration3014
2024-11-2980.5090.23-8.04105288Deceleration-2513
2024-11-2290.0090.380.2014426Deceleration2213
2024-11-15103.0090.3814.234678Deceleration4320
2024-11-0889.8090.08-3.61582Deceleration-1219
2024-11-0190.0090.02-3.63655Deceleration-1216
2024-10-2589.9089.65-3.671320Deceleration-1218
2024-10-1883.1089.45-11.9311549Deceleration-2019
2024-10-1190.9089.40-5.111350Deceleration2115
2024-10-0488.0089.60-7.615090Deceleration2114
2024-09-2797.8089.43-0.545354Deceleration3518
2024-09-2096.9088.971.384424Upward Expansion4024
2024-09-1399.6088.366.7110155Upward Expansion5438
2024-09-0698.0088.083.357917Upward Expansion6057
2024-08-30103.0087.728.706692Upward Expansion6264
2024-08-23110.40โ€”โ€”6811Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-16112.00โ€”โ€”3826Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0988.50โ€”โ€”2970Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-02102.00โ€”โ€”5490Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2694.00โ€”โ€”5714Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1982.00โ€”โ€”4419Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1282.00โ€”โ€”1085Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0579.50โ€”โ€”792Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2879.00โ€”โ€”4924Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-1480.00โ€”โ€”2474Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-0778.20โ€”โ€”803Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-3181.00โ€”โ€”4598Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-2485.90โ€”โ€”475Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1783.00โ€”โ€”4527Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1083.00โ€”โ€”2393Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-0385.90โ€”โ€”150Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-2685.00โ€”โ€”6942Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1990.10โ€”โ€”367Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-0593.90โ€”โ€”13945Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2987.90โ€”โ€”1715Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2279.00โ€”โ€”2571Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-1584.00โ€”โ€”1001Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0881.40โ€”โ€”16853Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0197.00โ€”โ€”5290Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-2382.90โ€”โ€”737Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-1683.90โ€”โ€”2730Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-0978.70โ€”โ€”11167Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-0291.20โ€”โ€”2924Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-2687.30โ€”โ€”10033Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-1994.70โ€”โ€”2950Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-1284.60โ€”โ€”5481Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-0598.00โ€”โ€”9427Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-2992.90โ€”โ€”1772Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-2292.40โ€”โ€”4823Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-1596.90โ€”โ€”6139Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-0895.10โ€”โ€”6722Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-01102.80โ€”โ€”4804Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-24107.60โ€”โ€”5534Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-17115.00โ€”โ€”16527Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-10117.00โ€”โ€”14236Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-03113.00โ€”โ€”13589Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-27125.00โ€”โ€”21806Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-20126.00โ€”โ€”7772Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-13120.00โ€”โ€”32726Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-06110.00โ€”โ€”132755Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-09-2971.50โ€”โ€”2196Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-09-2269.90โ€”โ€”2452Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-23.3%
Trend directionFalling-14.4%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-54.0%
Fair Value directionMoving away-7.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-33.7%
Relative strength directionWeakening-1.5%
Price momentumNegative-29.9%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.16ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-94 / ยฑ100

-40.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

90 /100

+16.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance26
Rotation Up9
Upward Expansion19
Deceleration40
Rotation Down81
Downward Expansion90

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 ยท 109 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 8%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 44%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-05-292026-09-25Established-17.2%
Rotation Down2026-05-152026-05-22New+12.0%
Balance2026-05-012026-05-08New+0.0%
Downward Expansion2026-02-272026-04-24Developing+80.4%
Rotation Down2026-02-062026-02-20New-13.8%
Rotation Up2025-12-262026-01-30Developing-2.9%
Balance2025-11-212025-12-19Developing+0.0%
Downward Expansion2025-06-272025-11-14Established-15.8%
Rotation Down2025-05-092025-06-20Developing-1.6%
Deceleration2025-04-112025-05-02New-3.8%
Upward Expansion2025-03-072025-04-04Developing-17.7%
Rotation Up2025-02-212025-02-28New-8.4%
Balance2024-12-202025-02-14Developing+20.0%
Deceleration2024-09-272024-12-13Developing-0.8%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing57
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution13
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TASI.SR

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
100/100
Current Relative Strength
-33.72
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-29.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-25.4%
Technology regime cohort
75th percentile4 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.28ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.16ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity SAR 40.89falling
Slow Activity SAR 45.77falling
Trend Reference SAR 48.27-23.3% close margin
Current Fair Value SAR 80.39-54.0% close margin
Structural low SAR 37.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.6%
Annualized volatility +85.7%
From structural high -51.9%
From structural low +15.6%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^TASI.SR Regime survived Read
Near term13-0.3%-36.1% to +36.0%+30.8%+53.8%-0.7%+84.6%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate4+10.6%-28.9% to +18.5%+75.0%+25.0%+8.2%+75.0%Too little matched history
Extended2+3.2%-15.8% to +22.1%+50.0%+50.0%+3.2%+50.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle1-51.9%-51.9% to -51.9%+0.0%+100.0%-50.6%+100.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context