Weekly structural research · AMS · Energy

SBMO Stage Analysis

SBM Offshore N.V.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 35.82Tenure NewBenchmark ^AEX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 61−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 41/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 85/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +72.1%EUR 20.81 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	35.82	34.07	5.91	1861722	Upward Expansion	61	41
2026-10-02	34.66	33.95	4.41	1949334	Upward Expansion	61	46
2026-09-25	36.00	33.81	9.54	1723369	Upward Expansion	67	72
2026-09-18	36.60	33.68	13.77	2354283	Rotation Up	69	70
2026-09-11	35.74	33.48	11.51	1928822	Rotation Up	43	59
2026-09-04	35.32	33.27	9.37	409717	Balance	42	50
2026-08-28	34.10	33.06	6.25	301998	Balance	45	37
2026-08-21	34.44	32.91	8.28	610128	Balance	20	25
2026-08-14	35.54	32.77	10.98	479730	Balance	27	24
2026-08-07	31.89	32.53	0.63	1407044	Rotation Down	-13	13
2026-07-31	31.83	32.31	1.89	458844	Rotation Down	-27	23
2026-07-24	33.03	32.06	6.89	355741	Rotation Down	-22	38
2026-07-17	31.07	31.77	0.76	304507	Rotation Down	-27	59
2026-07-10	30.99	31.53	1.50	310455	Deceleration	-29	51
2026-07-03	30.68	31.30	0.84	368141	Deceleration	-14	31
2026-06-26	30.76	31.09	3.49	682551	Deceleration	-12	21
2026-06-19	32.80	30.88	8.95	621175	Deceleration	14	18
2026-06-12	33.80	30.57	12.38	448871	Deceleration	32	23
2026-06-05	33.84	30.26	17.43	454098	Deceleration	37	22
2026-05-29	32.64	29.86	14.74	2697612	Upward Expansion	43	29
2026-05-22	34.82	29.50	22.07	1842711	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-05-15	35.82	29.08	31.07	2211723	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-05-08	35.30	28.58	29.73	2998750	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-05-01	36.44	28.11	35.75	1346118	Upward Expansion	73	65
2026-04-24	36.26	27.60	35.73	2479522	Upward Expansion	76	67
2026-04-17	33.94	27.11	28.10	3070178	Upward Expansion	67	64
2026-04-10	36.24	26.69	39.97	2728255	Upward Expansion	82	71
2026-04-03	34.98	26.20	41.63	2100596	Upward Expansion	81	70
2026-03-27	34.15	25.75	42.34	2636631	Upward Expansion	81	69
2026-03-20	32.57	25.38	37.11	3308034	Upward Expansion	76	68
2026-03-13	32.14	25.07	31.25	2257144	Upward Expansion	76	69
2026-03-06	30.60	24.74	28.83	1792417	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-02-27	32.12	24.43	30.21	2346509	Upward Expansion	89	80
2026-02-20	30.50	24.11	25.88	1565301	Upward Expansion	80	88
2026-02-13	29.48	23.82	25.48	1552042	Upward Expansion	69	89
2026-02-06	28.98	23.58	24.42	1853654	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-01-30	29.79	23.38	28.20	2060214	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-01-23	30.17	23.14	31.24	2067976	Upward Expansion	95	97
2026-01-16	28.35	22.87	23.33	3196656	Upward Expansion	92	88
2026-01-09	25.30	22.68	13.41	2040142	Upward Expansion	76	53
2026-01-02	24.33	22.57	12.04	790226	Upward Expansion	63	45
2025-12-26	24.19	22.46	15.20	590947	Upward Expansion	62	49
2025-12-19	24.04	22.32	14.82	1994065	Upward Expansion	62	61
2025-12-12	23.84	22.14	15.24	1375505	Upward Expansion	63	74
2025-12-05	24.63	21.96	18.87	1452559	Upward Expansion	77	84
2025-11-28	24.23	21.76	18.34	1581931	Upward Expansion	75	77
2025-11-21	23.72	21.56	18.72	1327005	Upward Expansion	70	70
2025-11-14	24.49	21.36	20.04	2446554	Deceleration	78	52
2025-11-07	21.63	21.11	6.80	1253812	Deceleration	26	15
2025-10-31	22.08	20.92	7.07	1058653	Deceleration	30	13
2025-10-24	22.06	20.72	6.62	1411189	Deceleration	14	13
2025-10-17	20.90	20.61	3.91	1312415	Deceleration	-2	15
2025-10-10	21.00	20.54	6.54	1291943	Deceleration	-1	15
2025-10-03	21.16	20.47	5.45	1205656	Deceleration	6	15
2025-09-26	21.79	20.38	11.70	1063513	Deceleration	18	20
2025-09-19	21.16	20.28	10.11	1601002	Upward Expansion	30	18
2025-09-12	21.63	20.23	15.78	982631	Upward Expansion	43	34
2025-09-05	21.53	20.07	17.34	1262277	Upward Expansion	55	42
2025-08-29	23.03	19.92	26.61	1305651	Deceleration	66	51
2025-08-22	23.31	19.72	26.84	1187774	Deceleration	72	50
2025-08-15	22.14	19.49	23.79	1548283	Deceleration	44	36
2025-08-08	21.43	19.32	21.31	2258420	Upward Expansion	47	41
2025-08-01	22.28	19.16	27.88	1380080	Upward Expansion	62	58
2025-07-25	21.93	18.96	24.19	1231424	Upward Expansion	65	68
2025-07-18	22.34	18.75	26.77	1645625	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-07-11	22.95	18.53	30.09	1873318	Upward Expansion	78	91
2025-07-04	22.52	18.29	30.88	1724182	Upward Expansion	74	90
2025-06-27	22.06	18.06	27.99	2099127	Upward Expansion	71	88
2025-06-20	22.66	17.86	34.42	2288276	Upward Expansion	86	92
2025-06-13	22.16	17.66	30.97	2020505	Upward Expansion	89	88
2025-06-06	20.94	17.47	24.11	1895122	Upward Expansion	84	79
2025-05-30	19.93	17.32	20.05	2216288	Upward Expansion	77	70
2025-05-23	18.65	17.19	13.86	2203282	Deceleration	59	53
2025-05-16	18.32	17.09	10.94	3015683	Deceleration	42	32
2025-05-09	18.63	17.01	16.68	1621467	Deceleration	46	28
2025-05-02	18.50	16.92	17.72	1569003	Deceleration	31	17
2025-04-25	17.65	16.85	16.21	1417717	Deceleration	11	22
2025-04-18	17.01	16.77	15.38	1454678	Deceleration	19	24
2025-04-11	15.75	16.72	11.65	4701196	Deceleration	5	15
2025-04-04	16.07	16.69	11.47	2448883	Upward Expansion	21	18
2025-03-28	18.99	16.66	22.74	1895732	Upward Expansion	68	55
2025-03-21	18.73	16.56	20.90	4519690	Upward Expansion	64	69
2025-03-14	18.82	16.46	23.58	1843866	Upward Expansion	70	84
2025-03-07	18.49	16.35	21.49	1937152	Upward Expansion	67	81
2025-02-28	18.90	16.24	23.62	2728385	Upward Expansion	82	87
2025-02-21	19.57	16.06	26.81	3556262	Upward Expansion	93	83
2025-02-14	16.66	15.86	7.92	1665713	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-02-07	17.11	15.76	14.15	1397847	Upward Expansion	69	68
2025-01-31	16.95	15.64	14.18	1189856	Upward Expansion	67	68
2025-01-24	16.66	15.51	15.53	1390543	Upward Expansion	60	61
2025-01-17	16.88	15.40	16.18	1892752	Upward Expansion	70	57
2025-01-10	16.81	15.27	19.44	1554351	Deceleration	68	37
2025-01-03	16.03	15.13	15.32	792252	Deceleration	33	18
2024-12-27	15.81	15.05	14.92	544606	Deceleration	28	20
2024-12-20	15.70	14.96	15.22	2050299	Deceleration	32	22
2024-12-13	15.66	14.87	13.11	1418294	Upward Expansion	39	24
2024-12-06	15.78	14.78	14.81	1476788	Upward Expansion	55	39
2024-11-29	16.00	14.69	18.35	1821093	Upward Expansion	59	49
2024-11-22	16.56	14.59	23.39	1580293	Upward Expansion	67	63
2024-11-15	16.42	14.48	25.50	2376540	Upward Expansion	68	59
2024-11-08	16.65	14.38	26.29	1720538	Upward Expansion	80	66
2024-11-01	15.85	14.27	19.69	2720391	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-10-25	15.80	14.18	17.76	1357477	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-10-18	15.76	14.09	17.36	1323242	Upward Expansion	63	54
2024-10-11	16.11	13.98	18.80	1296351	Upward Expansion	72	58
2024-10-04	16.23	13.86	20.73	1715238	Upward Expansion	79	57
2024-09-27	15.36	13.73	14.05	1653871	Upward Expansion	62	47
2024-09-20	15.41	13.62	17.25	1443120	Upward Expansion	66	57
2024-09-13	15.07	13.48	14.60	1557735	Upward Expansion	65	71
2024-09-06	15.05	13.35	17.25	1853833	Upward Expansion	66	84
2024-08-30	15.95	13.20	19.20	1600721	Upward Expansion	81	92
2024-08-23	15.69	13.01	18.78	1532276	Upward Expansion	84	90
2024-08-16	15.49	12.85	17.82	1888985	Upward Expansion	86	84
2024-08-09	15.15	12.69	18.33	4846885	Upward Expansion	86	74
2024-08-02	13.52	12.55	6.27	1685574	Upward Expansion	58	50
2024-07-26	13.68	12.48	4.25	938212	Upward Expansion	64	55
2024-07-19	13.73	12.39	4.55	1553188	Upward Expansion	68	52
2024-07-12	13.37	12.30	-2.29	1182077	Deceleration	58	36
2024-07-05	13.26	12.21	-2.01	1182087	Deceleration	54	30
2024-06-28	13.37	12.12	-0.31	1372590	Deceleration	61	35
2024-06-21	12.90	12.04	-3.93	1685303	Deceleration	40	28
2024-06-14	12.69	11.98	-4.83	1793115	Deceleration	42	30
2024-06-07	13.45	11.91	0.21	2121116	Deceleration	68	48
2024-05-31	13.23	11.82	0.68	1335991	Deceleration	51	41
2024-05-24	12.86	11.74	-3.43	1857605	Deceleration	44	37
2024-05-17	13.00	11.65	-2.31	1766460	Upward Expansion	49	46
2024-05-10	13.08	11.57	-1.57	2765655	Upward Expansion	63	59
2024-05-03	13.01	11.49	0.34	1802922	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-04-26	13.17	11.39	1.95	1891668	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-04-19	13.61	11.32	8.11	3656217	Upward Expansion	85	88
2024-04-12	13.17	11.25	1.94	2692070	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-04-05	13.10	11.20	1.77	1974537	Upward Expansion	83	93
2024-03-29	13.11	11.15	1.70	2238728	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-03-22	12.65	11.11	-1.27	2922962	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-03-15	12.32	11.07	-1.05	2668206	Rotation Up	81	93
2024-03-08	12.33	11.06	-2.13	2649656	Rotation Up	59	79
2024-03-01	12.10	11.05	-3.15	4768326	Rotation Up	53	59
2024-02-23	11.28	11.05	-9.94	1916482	Balance	-1	3
2024-02-16	11.08	11.07	-12.05	2177960	Downward Expansion	-27	22
2024-02-09	10.58	11.10	-15.76	1786733	Downward Expansion	-56	49
2024-02-02	10.40	11.14	-14.57	2504324	Balance	-53	38
2024-01-26	10.74	11.17	-11.57	2509097	Balance	-33	15
2024-01-19	10.81	11.18	-6.87	1520674	Balance	-16	14
2024-01-12	11.06	11.18	-5.31	1832344	Balance	-11	16
2024-01-05	11.25	11.19	-3.52	1793215	Balance	-4	9
2023-12-29	11.04	11.19	-6.57	1683166	Downward Expansion	-22	12
2023-12-22	10.97	11.21	-7.42	1838262	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2023-12-15	10.62	11.24	-11.60	2547714	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2023-12-08	10.71	11.27	-10.01	2862586	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2023-12-01	10.88	11.30	-7.76	3016241	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2023-11-24	11.02	11.34	-6.27	1746949	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2023-11-17	10.79	11.35	-7.67	2846831	Downward Expansion	-47	34
2023-11-10	10.74	11.37	-6.93	3735783	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2023-11-03	10.73	11.39	-6.06	1885999	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2023-10-27	10.31	11.41	-7.26	1844278	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2023-10-20	10.43	11.44	-6.75	1948440	Downward Expansion	-71	77

Price vs TrendAbove+5.1%

Trend directionRising+5.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+72.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+5.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.4%

Price momentumNegative-1.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.80×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

61 / ±100

+18.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

41 /100

-17.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SBMO Directional State ↗ SBMO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance27

Rotation Up61

Upward Expansion80

Deceleration59

Rotation Down17

Downward Expansion5

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 6%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 56%Deceleration 23%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 8%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-0.5%
Rotation Up	2026-09-11	2026-09-18	New	+2.4%
Balance	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	-0.6%
Rotation Down	2026-07-17	2026-08-07	New	+2.7%
Deceleration	2026-06-05	2026-07-10	Developing	-8.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-05-29	Extended	+37.6%
Deceleration	2025-09-26	2025-11-14	Developing	+12.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-09-19	New	-1.7%
Deceleration	2025-08-15	2025-08-29	New	+4.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-08-08	Developing	+7.5%
Deceleration	2025-04-11	2025-05-23	Developing	+18.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-17	2025-04-04	Developing	-4.8%
Deceleration	2024-12-20	2025-01-10	New	+7.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-19	2024-12-13	Established	+14.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing27

Stage 2 · Advancing95

Stage 3 · Distribution54

Stage 4 · Declining5

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AEX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 82/100
Current Relative Strength: 5.91
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -1.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -13.1%
Energy regime cohort: 50th percentile2 in cohort

Test SBMO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.89×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.80×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SBMO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 35.65rising

Slow Activity EUR 34.11rising

Trend Reference EUR 34.07+5.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 20.81+72.1% close margin

Structural low EUR 30.12shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.1%

Annualized volatility +29.7%

From structural high -4.2%

From structural low +75.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AEX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	30	-0.9%-16.3% to +18.0%	+46.7%	+46.7%	-0.4%	+70.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	+7.1%-11.5% to +24.3%	+72.7%	+72.7%	+5.9%	+36.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+12.7%-12.9% to +54.0%	+62.5%	+62.5%	+7.8%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+33.1%-2.1% to +48.8%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+16.7%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SBMO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map