Weekly structural research ยท NYSE ยท Real Estate

IHS Stage Analysis

IHS Holding Ltd

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 8.43Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Direction 60โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 60/100directional strength
Maturity 11/100lifecycle context
Confidence 73/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation
Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +55.2%USD 5.43 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-258.438.28-1.702264684Upward Expansion6060
2026-09-188.428.27-0.443653954Upward Expansion6161
2026-09-118.478.250.185174179Upward Expansion6967
2026-09-048.478.25-0.699472361Upward Expansion6965
2026-08-288.368.24-1.935979110Upward Expansion5553
2026-08-218.408.23-1.084555680Deceleration6050
2026-08-148.338.20-3.263106486Deceleration4224
2026-08-078.358.18-2.932617563Deceleration4317
2026-07-318.208.15-1.2915982800Deceleration128
2026-07-248.238.120.231887250Deceleration159
2026-07-178.158.09-1.093718047Deceleration67
2026-07-108.288.07-0.815497389Deceleration3420
2026-07-038.228.030.045468318Deceleration3217
2026-06-268.248.012.698426712Deceleration3925
2026-06-198.147.97-0.605744876Upward Expansion4133
2026-06-128.367.913.249586613Upward Expansion7059
2026-06-058.307.843.394739244Upward Expansion6261
2026-05-298.307.781.124724731Upward Expansion6266
2026-05-228.397.743.976627912Upward Expansion7774
2026-05-158.247.683.347210151Upward Expansion5056
2026-05-088.247.633.644768304Upward Expansion5854
2026-05-018.207.575.754482004Upward Expansion5541
2026-04-248.257.527.904966045Upward Expansion5850
2026-04-178.257.479.022624457Upward Expansion6049
2026-04-108.247.4214.244822047Upward Expansion5844
2026-04-038.297.4019.824411952Upward Expansion6144
2026-03-278.217.3623.4510839430Upward Expansion5841
2026-03-208.217.3321.427555438Upward Expansion6041
2026-03-138.207.3019.819011104Upward Expansion6142
2026-03-068.087.2617.5021699276Upward Expansion5752
2026-02-278.007.2115.2813456853Upward Expansion6060
2026-02-208.027.1616.2023009500Upward Expansion6264
2026-02-138.297.1022.695588301Upward Expansion7170
2026-02-068.227.0221.426488021Upward Expansion7056
2026-01-307.996.9419.084836778Upward Expansion6749
2026-01-237.696.8816.465287134Upward Expansion6138
2026-01-167.586.8115.537300442Upward Expansion5937
2026-01-097.576.7416.287433496Upward Expansion6245
2026-01-027.356.6815.993424964Upward Expansion5751
2025-12-267.286.6214.891871028Upward Expansion5558
2025-12-197.346.5718.854710199Upward Expansion5655
2025-12-127.356.5020.504892484Deceleration5647
2025-12-057.516.4623.847127609Deceleration5226
2025-11-287.106.4018.893036182Deceleration2814
2025-11-216.286.3310.244293658Deceleration410
2025-11-146.246.288.525710135Deceleration35
2025-11-076.616.2416.361870056Deceleration2212
2025-10-316.856.1720.011698281Deceleration3418
2025-10-246.786.1021.031640275Deceleration2920
2025-10-176.656.0522.371697228Deceleration3024
2025-10-106.436.0021.721954927Deceleration3426
2025-10-036.735.9225.682434390Upward Expansion4634
2025-09-266.675.8127.311877813Upward Expansion5143
2025-09-196.845.7131.663326137Upward Expansion6558
2025-09-127.615.6150.132473311Upward Expansion8187
2025-09-057.275.4947.891473212Upward Expansion7486
2025-08-297.255.3750.082508865Upward Expansion7990
2025-08-227.095.2448.753221839Upward Expansion8089
2025-08-157.045.1349.894453037Upward Expansion8484
2025-08-086.655.0044.722663905Upward Expansion7976
2025-08-016.494.8846.683354317Upward Expansion7560
2025-07-256.164.7837.762521617Upward Expansion6952
2025-07-185.894.6735.244214046Upward Expansion6147
2025-07-115.964.5839.293645197Upward Expansion6549
2025-07-046.034.4942.206433031Upward Expansion6949
2025-06-275.564.4034.943445768Upward Expansion5644
2025-06-205.774.3246.193012106Upward Expansion6449
2025-06-135.634.2343.683793568Upward Expansion5844
2025-06-065.644.1344.694867436Upward Expansion6153
2025-05-305.554.0446.035730693Upward Expansion6264
2025-05-235.383.9545.117824260Upward Expansion6466
2025-05-166.283.8766.545746519Upward Expansion8782
2025-05-095.703.7661.1810256696Upward Expansion8160
2025-05-024.903.6739.163900511Upward Expansion6349
2025-04-254.793.6140.511854316Upward Expansion6050
2025-04-184.943.5652.371620634Upward Expansion6771
2025-04-114.603.4941.022612662Upward Expansion6481
2025-04-044.713.4453.543148445Upward Expansion6482
2025-03-285.323.3958.914548197Upward Expansion8888
2025-03-215.253.3255.878298882Upward Expansion8970
2025-03-143.783.2613.851389996Upward Expansion5936
2025-03-073.563.255.021683978Upward Expansion5644
2025-02-283.653.234.86969591Upward Expansion6064
2025-02-213.803.208.35659940Upward Expansion6466
2025-02-143.953.1811.221357844Upward Expansion7472
2025-02-073.793.148.331796622Upward Expansion7161
2025-01-313.283.11-6.553004911Upward Expansion5038
2025-01-243.743.105.182123148Balance7252
2025-01-173.213.09-8.84921316Balance4721
2025-01-103.143.10-9.211777888Balance1913
2025-01-033.373.11-5.471685877Balance2525
2024-12-273.003.11-17.291062632Balance715
2024-12-203.233.13-11.692167157Balance1625
2024-12-133.243.13-14.043252947Balance720
2024-12-063.293.14-14.193030376Downward Expansion-1111
2024-11-293.253.15-15.531416348Downward Expansion-2417
2024-11-222.963.17-23.351907054Downward Expansion-5655
2024-11-152.643.19-31.772324112Downward Expansion-7166
2024-11-082.803.21-30.581578020Balance-6150
2024-11-012.823.23-28.391709175Balance-5939
2024-10-253.003.26-26.54913547Balance-4923
2024-10-183.083.27-26.61873849Balance-4421
2024-10-113.023.28-28.691130429Balance-5031
2024-10-043.183.28-25.341568436Balance-3624
2024-09-273.093.26-28.631074261Balance-4630
2024-09-202.983.25-32.121123254Balance-5126
2024-09-133.093.23-29.811040432Balance-47
2024-09-063.053.24-28.93843776Balance-313
2024-08-303.293.25-27.89891737Balance615
2024-08-233.603.24-22.941495256Balance1713
2024-08-163.483.25-26.194175794Downward Expansion-2516
2024-08-092.903.28-37.359149842Downward Expansion-5750
2024-08-022.813.32-40.912205432Downward Expansion-6663
2024-07-263.003.37-39.882682608Downward Expansion-5761
2024-07-192.873.42-44.446074564Downward Expansion-5761
2024-07-122.983.47-45.101647549Balance-5348
2024-07-053.003.51-45.881518350Balance-5033
2024-06-283.203.56-43.051240270Balance-4220
2024-06-213.593.61-38.042777869Balance-219
2024-06-143.443.66-41.661193262Balance-2815
2024-06-073.393.71-42.871020557Balance-2716
2024-05-313.653.78-39.101156323Balance-85
2024-05-243.343.85-45.671592189Balance-1611
2024-05-173.363.90-46.482660244Balance-1113
2024-05-103.753.95-40.591925385Balance-312
2024-05-033.803.99-39.971328850Balance-610
2024-04-263.534.05-45.23910700Balance-2917
2024-04-193.324.12-48.421223237Downward Expansion-3021
2024-04-123.354.18-50.721712769Downward Expansion-3324
2024-04-053.544.23-49.831890067Downward Expansion-3724
2024-03-293.534.31-51.443060040Downward Expansion-4636
2024-03-223.314.45-55.233792761Downward Expansion-6252
2024-03-153.044.57-58.645111001Downward Expansion-6665
2024-03-082.404.70-67.892316315Downward Expansion-8289
2024-03-012.794.88-63.451985779Downward Expansion-7483
2024-02-232.635.05-65.842277075Downward Expansion-8590
2024-02-163.155.23-59.121975646Downward Expansion-7781
2024-02-093.355.43-57.336980216Downward Expansion-7670
2024-02-023.085.62-60.805394929Downward Expansion-8977
2024-01-264.065.85-48.431809073Downward Expansion-6954
2024-01-194.186.04-47.091586399Downward Expansion-6753
2024-01-124.126.18-47.901301750Downward Expansion-7257
2024-01-054.396.32-44.151238520Downward Expansion-6460
2023-12-294.606.45-42.881657019Downward Expansion-6576
2023-12-224.306.58-46.822949803Downward Expansion-6979
2023-12-154.186.70-48.223739071Downward Expansion-7576
2023-12-084.296.83-46.021571748Downward Expansion-7560
2023-12-014.776.97-40.422041159Downward Expansion-6645
2023-11-245.067.12-36.801243863Downward Expansion-5238
2023-11-175.177.28-35.281595233Downward Expansion-5242
2023-11-105.517.41-29.91523694Downward Expansion-5044
2023-11-035.627.53-27.881274141Downward Expansion-6154
2023-10-274.757.64-35.681290447Downward Expansion-7163
2023-10-204.957.77-34.922086615Downward Expansion-7062
2023-10-135.027.84-35.742071608Downward Expansion-7275
2023-10-065.517.91-29.392919725Downward Expansion-6584
Price vs TrendAbove+1.8%
Trend directionRising+2.3%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+55.2%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.7%
Relative strength directionWeakening-4.4%
Price momentumPositive+2.7%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.69ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

60 / ยฑ100

+4.6 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

60 /100

+6.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance22
Rotation Up65
Upward Expansion85
Deceleration47
Rotation Down13
Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Upward Expansion 44%Deceleration 12%Downward Expansion 24%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-08-282026-09-25Developing+0.8%
Deceleration2026-06-262026-08-21Developing+1.9%
Upward Expansion2025-12-192026-06-19Extended+10.9%
Deceleration2025-10-102025-12-12Developing+14.3%
Upward Expansion2025-01-312025-10-03Extended+105.2%
Balance2024-12-132025-01-24Developing+15.4%
Downward Expansion2024-11-152024-12-06New+24.6%
Balance2024-08-232024-11-08Developing-22.2%
Downward Expansion2024-07-192024-08-16Developing+21.3%
Balance2024-04-262024-07-12Developing-15.6%
Downward Expansion2023-09-152024-04-19Extended-32.2%
Rotation Down2023-08-252023-09-08New-17.0%
Balance2023-08-042023-08-18New-14.3%
Upward Expansion2023-07-072023-07-28New-15.9%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing28
Stage 2 ยท Advancing66
Stage 3 ยท Distribution77
Stage 4 ยท Declining34

Legacy result: Stage 3 ยท Stage 3B ยท Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
35/100
Current Relative Strength
-1.70
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+2.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-19.3%
Real Estate regime cohort
71th percentile17 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.39ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.69ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 8.44rising
Slow Activity USD 8.32rising
Trend Reference USD 8.28+1.8% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 5.43+55.2% close margin
Structural low USD 8.09shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +1.4%
Annualized volatility +7.2%
From structural high -5.8%
From structural low +47.6%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs SPY Regime survived Read
Near term20+1.4%-19.5% to +45.8%+65.0%+65.0%+0.5%+80.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate8+4.5%-44.6% to +49.4%+62.5%+62.5%-1.5%+75.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended4+12.9%-46.4% to +97.9%+75.0%+75.0%+2.6%+50.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2+39.8%-64.0% to +143.6%+50.0%+50.0%+20.7%+50.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context