Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Energy

PAGP Stage Analysis

Plains GP Holdings LP

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 26.62Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 40−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 23/100directional strength

Maturity 83/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +44.9%USD 18.37 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	26.62	25.02	4.08	7361955	Upward Expansion	40	23
2026-10-02	26.06	24.89	2.61	10831234	Upward Expansion	46	35
2026-09-25	26.58	24.80	5.76	7662119	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-09-18	27.67	24.66	14.11	7374003	Upward Expansion	67	84
2026-09-11	27.99	24.46	17.13	8377760	Upward Expansion	74	87
2026-09-04	27.89	24.24	16.65	9205149	Upward Expansion	80	87
2026-08-28	27.97	23.99	17.99	8252752	Upward Expansion	87	79
2026-08-21	26.84	23.73	14.16	8753978	Upward Expansion	80	71
2026-08-14	25.84	23.48	7.55	7239029	Upward Expansion	67	69
2026-08-07	24.74	23.28	4.39	9010554	Upward Expansion	61	67
2026-07-31	26.33	23.09	16.93	9380662	Upward Expansion	77	78
2026-07-24	26.04	22.84	16.64	5877276	Upward Expansion	76	63
2026-07-17	25.21	22.58	11.49	6314028	Deceleration	66	37
2026-07-10	24.36	22.34	3.46	5096889	Deceleration	39	20
2026-07-03	24.05	22.13	4.00	4668123	Deceleration	32	19
2026-06-26	23.39	21.93	2.09	5574163	Deceleration	35	20
2026-06-19	23.25	21.75	-3.07	5798994	Upward Expansion	42	29
2026-06-12	24.38	21.55	4.16	9056610	Upward Expansion	59	51
2026-06-05	24.46	21.31	6.92	5648122	Upward Expansion	62	61
2026-05-29	24.35	21.06	1.77	7284640	Upward Expansion	62	56
2026-05-22	25.95	20.80	11.70	11195306	Upward Expansion	85	70
2026-05-15	24.56	20.49	7.24	8165079	Deceleration	75	55
2026-05-08	23.19	20.20	1.04	10296895	Deceleration	46	38
2026-05-01	23.82	19.96	9.42	11094679	Deceleration	62	47
2026-04-24	22.75	19.73	6.23	7042466	Upward Expansion	50	45
2026-04-17	22.30	19.57	6.22	9256228	Upward Expansion	64	60
2026-04-10	23.17	19.40	16.91	10153101	Upward Expansion	67	66
2026-04-03	23.65	19.21	24.77	7664275	Upward Expansion	72	69
2026-03-27	24.04	19.00	31.92	9020018	Upward Expansion	85	74
2026-03-20	23.26	18.81	23.61	9876081	Upward Expansion	79	82
2026-03-13	22.72	18.63	18.34	11237676	Upward Expansion	74	89
2026-03-06	23.39	18.46	20.47	10932180	Upward Expansion	95	98
2026-02-27	22.15	18.29	12.72	8403540	Upward Expansion	88	95
2026-02-20	21.89	18.15	10.95	8265383	Upward Expansion	93	96
2026-02-13	21.22	18.03	8.69	10531447	Upward Expansion	91	95
2026-02-06	20.35	17.94	2.91	13965344	Upward Expansion	83	93
2026-01-30	20.13	17.88	-0.39	10392717	Upward Expansion	85	94
2026-01-23	19.58	17.81	-3.48	6793900	Upward Expansion	78	91
2026-01-16	19.79	17.75	-2.51	9504161	Rotation Up	90	93
2026-01-09	19.10	17.70	-7.00	9778671	Rotation Up	57	72
2026-01-02	18.69	17.65	-7.22	6115899	Rotation Up	42	59
2025-12-26	18.13	17.60	-11.67	4512031	Rotation Up	28	54
2025-12-19	18.01	17.54	-11.25	8067151	Rotation Up	24	49
2025-12-12	18.15	17.49	-10.20	6949107	Rotation Up	30	45
2025-12-05	18.19	17.45	-11.80	6641997	Balance	33	35
2025-11-28	17.86	17.39	-12.78	6144487	Balance	-4	18
2025-11-21	17.35	17.34	-11.40	6016977	Downward Expansion	-29	20
2025-11-14	17.20	17.35	-15.08	4835808	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2025-11-07	16.87	17.35	-17.04	9038016	Rotation Down	-58	46
2025-10-31	16.63	17.32	-20.92	7896817	Rotation Down	-35	63
2025-10-24	16.61	17.33	-19.72	8081089	Rotation Down	-37	65
2025-10-17	15.92	17.43	-21.63	6165872	Rotation Down	-55	71
2025-10-10	15.88	17.54	-20.19	7667800	Rotation Down	-59	66
2025-10-03	17.03	17.65	-16.67	5895894	Balance	-27	38
2025-09-26	17.75	17.71	-12.35	4709421	Balance	-20	21
2025-09-19	17.23	17.77	-15.52	4546546	Balance	-32	24
2025-09-12	17.62	17.85	-11.99	5810144	Balance	-8	11
2025-09-05	17.36	17.90	-11.94	5694176	Balance	-15	14
2025-08-29	18.19	17.94	-7.15	6445704	Balance	9	8
2025-08-22	17.87	17.97	-9.22	6206187	Balance	6	8
2025-08-15	17.75	18.02	-10.86	7208217	Rotation Up	2	7
2025-08-08	18.13	18.07	-8.67	7862900	Rotation Up	18	21
2025-08-01	18.13	18.06	-5.49	9548584	Rotation Up	21	34
2025-07-25	18.32	18.00	-6.77	5193362	Rotation Up	23	42
2025-07-18	18.50	17.93	-5.22	6474433	Rotation Up	28	42
2025-07-11	18.30	17.85	-5.17	4996514	Balance	24	29
2025-07-04	18.06	17.81	-6.79	6015540	Balance	16	23
2025-06-27	17.91	17.79	-6.30	10404150	Balance	-18	20
2025-06-20	18.18	17.78	-1.02	7589761	Downward Expansion	-18	15
2025-06-13	17.75	17.75	-3.24	9969629	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2025-06-06	17.17	17.70	-6.82	10062502	Rotation Down	-55	34
2025-05-30	16.27	17.66	-9.89	7455763	Rotation Down	-36	33
2025-05-23	16.46	17.64	-7.21	6062376	Rotation Down	-36	34
2025-05-16	17.02	17.61	-6.43	6843300	Rotation Down	-31	30
2025-05-09	16.40	17.58	-3.78	10877550	Rotation Down	-31	48
2025-05-02	16.43	17.58	-3.91	7774229	Rotation Down	-33	55
2025-04-25	17.55	17.58	6.03	6418874	Rotation Down	-20	36
2025-04-18	17.14	17.54	10.16	5828415	Deceleration	-22	35
2025-04-11	16.18	17.52	1.64	15825755	Deceleration	-17	26
2025-04-04	16.89	17.52	14.05	11977081	Upward Expansion	11	12
2025-03-28	19.47	17.50	18.68	6140438	Upward Expansion	63	42
2025-03-21	19.32	17.41	15.41	4297390	Upward Expansion	62	44
2025-03-14	19.10	17.32	14.80	5305063	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-03-07	18.74	17.23	10.19	8101996	Upward Expansion	62	51
2025-02-28	19.55	17.14	11.55	8031954	Upward Expansion	71	65
2025-02-21	19.63	17.03	8.48	6779016	Upward Expansion	76	76
2025-02-14	19.10	16.93	3.44	7145475	Upward Expansion	68	81
2025-02-07	18.77	16.85	4.72	12493811	Upward Expansion	66	83
2025-01-31	19.15	16.78	7.24	9532332	Upward Expansion	72	84
2025-01-24	19.35	16.70	7.18	7507946	Upward Expansion	81	83
2025-01-17	19.06	16.60	7.33	12046511	Upward Expansion	78	62
2025-01-10	17.79	16.47	3.33	8914146	Balance	53	23
2025-01-03	16.47	16.38	-6.39	5262364	Balance	25	19
2024-12-27	16.12	16.34	-9.17	4813061	Upward Expansion	21	10
2024-12-20	16.18	16.32	-8.07	9181583	Upward Expansion	43	48
2024-12-13	17.01	16.29	-5.60	6716342	Upward Expansion	61	70
2024-12-06	17.41	16.25	-2.60	7346576	Upward Expansion	67	71
2024-11-29	17.80	16.20	2.88	5853727	Deceleration	77	58
2024-11-22	17.12	16.14	-0.30	6197056	Deceleration	50	23
2024-11-15	16.21	16.09	-3.85	6536857	Deceleration	-11	25
2024-11-08	16.25	16.08	-7.03	13328746	Deceleration	-11	31
2024-11-01	15.41	16.07	-7.14	9142473	Deceleration	-29	43
2024-10-25	15.65	16.10	-7.50	7570537	Deceleration	-19	17
2024-10-18	16.07	16.09	-5.10	6541906	Deceleration	15	8
2024-10-11	16.48	16.05	-2.77	6051379	Deceleration	37	18
2024-10-04	16.46	16.00	-1.80	6082727	Deceleration	36	17
2024-09-27	16.25	15.94	-2.94	5347338	Deceleration	35	15
2024-09-20	16.52	15.88	-0.50	4727101	Deceleration	51	27
2024-09-13	16.35	15.81	-0.23	7178795	Deceleration	49	28
2024-09-06	16.28	15.74	5.19	4445599	Deceleration	51	30
2024-08-30	16.76	15.66	2.13	6590612	Deceleration	60	34
2024-08-23	16.63	15.55	0.55	4498735	Deceleration	47	24
2024-08-16	16.34	15.46	-0.24	9044221	Upward Expansion	40	23
2024-08-09	16.08	15.37	3.42	7894675	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-08-02	16.07	15.29	3.70	8785383	Upward Expansion	60	57
2024-07-26	16.64	15.20	4.16	10766596	Upward Expansion	64	77
2024-07-19	16.95	15.09	3.51	3991388	Upward Expansion	76	83
2024-07-12	16.62	14.96	-2.39	5169289	Upward Expansion	71	73
2024-07-05	16.70	14.83	-2.06	6555393	Deceleration	73	45
2024-06-28	16.16	14.70	-1.83	6314705	Deceleration	51	24
2024-06-21	15.36	14.61	-6.67	4120591	Deceleration	16	16
2024-06-14	14.94	14.54	-8.97	4368345	Deceleration	23	19
2024-06-07	15.33	14.48	-3.31	5654059	Deceleration	38	24
2024-05-31	15.47	14.41	0.25	7892191	Deceleration	43	33
2024-05-24	15.50	14.34	-1.00	6164912	Upward Expansion	47	41
2024-05-17	15.80	14.25	2.35	8499793	Upward Expansion	61	52
2024-05-10	15.85	14.16	5.01	12987075	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-05-03	15.80	14.06	6.43	10771761	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-04-26	15.84	13.94	7.92	14374433	Upward Expansion	68	71
2024-04-19	15.84	13.85	12.39	8877910	Upward Expansion	70	81
2024-04-12	15.84	13.78	6.56	9987196	Upward Expansion	76	88
2024-04-05	16.29	13.68	9.22	13142992	Upward Expansion	95	96
2024-03-29	15.41	13.56	2.65	8888017	Upward Expansion	86	92
2024-03-22	15.04	13.49	-0.17	7829913	Upward Expansion	81	90
2024-03-15	14.71	13.42	0.74	6579684	Upward Expansion	71	85
2024-03-08	14.71	13.36	-0.30	11115203	Upward Expansion	75	85
2024-03-01	14.61	13.30	-2.62	8020968	Upward Expansion	76	77
2024-02-23	14.46	13.24	-1.93	9054398	Upward Expansion	76	65
2024-02-16	14.25	13.18	-2.19	9600545	Upward Expansion	75	64
2024-02-09	13.68	13.12	-7.57	15886455	Upward Expansion	58	55
2024-02-02	13.52	13.07	-7.15	12048110	Upward Expansion	60	64
2024-01-26	14.11	13.02	-2.08	16040196	Upward Expansion	77	72
2024-01-19	13.61	12.94	-5.11	10335583	Upward Expansion	60	57
2024-01-12	13.68	12.86	-2.07	9878044	Upward Expansion	64	51
2024-01-05	13.38	12.78	-1.23	8496442	Upward Expansion	53	24
2023-12-29	13.21	12.71	-5.67	5326246	Upward Expansion	34	17
2023-12-22	13.17	12.65	-5.86	11404054	Upward Expansion	34	15
2023-12-15	12.66	12.59	-8.81	8721341	Upward Expansion	21	9
2023-12-08	12.72	12.54	-5.47	7956870	Upward Expansion	40	23
2023-12-01	13.53	12.47	1.10	9464714	Upward Expansion	62	38
2023-11-24	13.23	12.38	-1.00	5055533	Upward Expansion	55	37
2023-11-17	13.22	12.30	-0.28	10989053	Upward Expansion	55	34
2023-11-10	13.04	12.22	0.33	12812576	Upward Expansion	50	33
2023-11-03	13.45	12.14	6.43	14459516	Deceleration	67	41
2023-10-27	12.73	12.05	7.17	14706142	Deceleration	36	20
2023-10-20	13.13	11.97	7.80	9164790	Deceleration	49	30

Price vs TrendAbove+6.4%

Trend directionRising+8.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+44.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+3.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+4.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.6%

Price momentumPositive+14.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.40×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

40 / ±100

-34.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

23 /100

-63.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PAGP Directional State ↗ PAGP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance36

Rotation Up28

Upward Expansion63

Deceleration88

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion16

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 53%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 3%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-10-09	Developing	+2.2%
Deceleration	2026-06-26	2026-07-17	New	+7.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-06-19	Developing	-10.4%
Deceleration	2026-05-01	2026-05-15	New	+3.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-04-24	Established	+16.2%
Rotation Up	2025-12-12	2026-01-16	Developing	+9.1%
Balance	2025-11-28	2025-12-05	New	+1.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-14	2025-11-21	New	+0.8%
Rotation Down	2025-10-10	2025-11-07	Developing	+6.3%
Balance	2025-08-22	2025-10-03	Developing	-4.7%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-08-15	Developing	-4.1%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-07-11	New	+2.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-13	2025-06-20	New	+2.4%
Rotation Down	2025-04-25	2025-06-06	Developing	-2.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing18

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution58

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 73/100
Current Relative Strength: 4.08
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +14.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.1%
Energy regime cohort: 38th percentile13 in cohort

Test PAGP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.99×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.40×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PAGP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 26.69falling

Slow Activity USD 25.79rising

Trend Reference USD 25.02+6.4% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 18.37+44.9% close margin

Structural low USD 22.11shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.6%

Annualized volatility +25.1%

From structural high -7.2%

From structural low +69.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	44	+0.6%-15.3% to +15.8%	+52.3%	+52.3%	-0.0%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	16	+4.3%-8.4% to +16.2%	+62.5%	+62.5%	+3.1%	+62.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+12.8%-8.5% to +33.0%	+62.5%	+62.5%	-0.5%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+15.8%-2.9% to +43.1%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+7.2%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PAGP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map