Weekly structural research · GER · Industrials

DP4A Stage Analysis

A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 3,036.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^GDAXI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction 82−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 91/100directional strength
Maturity 52/100lifecycle context
Confidence 80/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +195.2%EUR 1,028.40 · improving
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
View chart values · 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-253,036.002,246.0553.94201Upward Expansion8291
2026-09-182,926.002,199.3251.34131Upward Expansion7390
2026-09-112,958.002,157.3653.6725Upward Expansion8394
2026-09-042,912.002,112.1950.68171Upward Expansion8996
2026-08-282,836.002,068.3445.8239Upward Expansion9397
2026-08-212,774.002,028.1246.846Upward Expansion9697
2026-08-142,646.001,986.1040.2128Upward Expansion9389
2026-08-072,228.001,950.1819.9015Upward Expansion6461
2026-07-312,270.001,928.8226.300Upward Expansion7049
2026-07-242,210.001,904.7526.670Upward Expansion6445
2026-07-172,220.001,881.7529.66119Upward Expansion5839
2026-07-102,066.001,857.7520.6731Upward Expansion4430
2026-07-032,198.001,839.8625.851Upward Expansion6855
2026-06-262,084.001,813.1525.893Upward Expansion6371
2026-06-192,044.001,788.8123.1110Upward Expansion6369
2026-06-122,320.001,763.8442.9515Upward Expansion8083
2026-06-052,298.001,730.7742.4827Deceleration8259
2026-05-292,094.001,699.4029.5857Deceleration6640
2026-05-222,000.001,676.3726.0235Deceleration4530
2026-05-151,923.001,655.5026.9051Deceleration4129
2026-05-081,869.001,636.9222.28165Upward Expansion4739
2026-05-011,999.001,616.5032.119Upward Expansion6258
2026-04-241,948.001,594.3130.7967Upward Expansion6563
2026-04-172,036.001,574.1134.7690Upward Expansion6885
2026-04-102,096.001,551.3745.3541Upward Expansion8286
2026-04-032,002.001,528.1944.3264Upward Expansion7981
2026-03-272,132.001,508.4961.6535Upward Expansion9689
2026-03-201,756.371,484.3734.41245Upward Expansion7364
2026-03-131,723.471,473.9026.95116Upward Expansion7274
2026-03-061,776.741,465.1332.50384Upward Expansion8775
2026-02-271,634.161,454.0815.9351Upward Expansion6554
2026-02-201,667.061,443.7920.25108Upward Expansion7865
2026-02-131,602.821,436.0119.1940Upward Expansion6755
2026-02-061,596.561,427.3721.65113Upward Expansion6855
2026-01-301,629.461,417.6027.2429Upward Expansion8163
2026-01-231,513.521,404.0218.6373Upward Expansion6559
2026-01-161,568.351,394.2823.0690Upward Expansion7183
2026-01-091,587.161,382.6626.8997Upward Expansion8290
2026-01-021,547.991,373.4229.6433Upward Expansion7887
2025-12-261,519.781,364.6230.493Upward Expansion7482
2025-12-191,500.201,355.4031.3045Upward Expansion7273
2025-12-121,529.181,348.4636.79219Deceleration7355
2025-12-051,396.791,341.6728.0938Deceleration3716
2025-11-281,353.701,334.5127.1620Deceleration1114
2025-11-211,294.951,330.2827.5615Deceleration17
2025-11-141,327.851,325.1628.48770Deceleration2215
2025-11-071,356.841,317.7235.0939Deceleration3422
2025-10-311,403.061,307.3539.83211Deceleration4117
2025-10-241,374.071,293.9037.8345Deceleration1914
2025-10-171,365.451,290.2541.85156Deceleration1317
2025-10-101,256.561,285.2430.7887Deceleration-719
2025-10-031,333.341,257.4940.31137Deceleration2919
2025-09-261,341.951,227.4047.74236Deceleration3722
2025-09-191,353.701,197.1652.56167Upward Expansion4433
2025-09-121,400.711,166.1660.59126Upward Expansion6049
2025-09-051,410.891,133.1365.9734Upward Expansion6257
2025-08-291,408.541,098.9667.3044Upward Expansion6563
2025-08-221,442.231,064.2271.88193Upward Expansion7066
2025-08-151,460.251,027.8478.02145Upward Expansion7980
2025-08-081,445.36990.9281.81474Upward Expansion8076
2025-08-011,325.50955.2176.03177Upward Expansion6464
2025-07-251,433.61924.9188.18130Upward Expansion8580
2025-07-181,343.52890.7180.2051Upward Expansion7764
2025-07-111,303.57858.5579.05108Upward Expansion6259
2025-07-041,222.09828.5774.9624Upward Expansion5057
2025-06-271,221.31801.7176.3696Upward Expansion5355
2025-06-201,219.74774.4184.7713Upward Expansion6461
2025-06-131,309.83747.20101.1783Upward Expansion6860
2025-06-061,283.98716.7595.489Upward Expansion6864
2025-05-301,243.25686.4695.9625Upward Expansion6764
2025-05-231,291.82657.52111.26281Upward Expansion7469
2025-05-161,325.50626.43120.88563Upward Expansion8272
2025-05-091,182.14593.97104.71409Upward Expansion7068
2025-05-021,226.79565.98121.6697Upward Expansion8272
2025-04-251,141.40536.16120.22156Upward Expansion7570
2025-04-181,104.58510.29129.7247Upward Expansion6989
2025-04-111,045.83485.52133.171039Upward Expansion6789
2025-04-04999.61462.20126.62509Upward Expansion6989
2025-03-281,264.40439.98171.0142Upward Expansion9999
2025-03-211,215.04409.28165.4359Upward Expansion9899
2025-03-14424.12380.79-4.37149Upward Expansion6270
2025-03-07430.63378.72-2.8370Upward Expansion6873
2025-02-28434.79376.440.99246Upward Expansion7366
2025-02-21423.86374.260.55289Balance5843
2025-02-14409.81372.12-3.01210Balance4418
2025-02-07385.61370.56-5.06181Balance-921
2025-01-31366.36370.11-9.0632Balance-1529
2025-01-24351.01371.93-11.2142Balance-2425
2025-01-17352.57373.97-8.5074Upward Expansion911
2025-01-10373.90375.460.5952Upward Expansion3420
2025-01-03416.58375.7714.2677Upward Expansion6944
2024-12-27407.73375.6312.0037Rotation Up6441
2024-12-20378.59376.045.2536Rotation Up3132
2024-12-13404.09377.1310.0164Rotation Up3658
2024-12-06416.32376.5314.25113Rotation Up4967
2024-11-29402.52374.5915.7952Rotation Up3358
2024-11-22403.31372.1218.86126Rotation Up3754
2024-11-15396.28370.0018.5597Balance3234
2024-11-08375.46367.2813.34112Balance-214
2024-11-01374.94365.3713.83147Deceleration-1713
2024-10-25359.07363.398.68172Deceleration-4031
2024-10-18351.79361.295.8171Deceleration-2321
2024-10-11342.42359.584.9078Deceleration-2921
2024-10-04332.27——163Not yet classified——
2024-09-27365.32——68Not yet classified——
2024-09-20361.41——64Not yet classified——
2024-09-13346.06——82Not yet classified——
2024-09-06333.05——24Not yet classified——
2024-08-30343.46——37Not yet classified——
2024-08-23360.37——53Not yet classified——
2024-08-16361.93——70Not yet classified——
2024-08-09362.19——344Not yet classified——
2024-08-02369.48——386Not yet classified——
2024-07-26359.59——66Not yet classified——
2024-07-19363.23——41Not yet classified——
2024-07-12372.08——117Not yet classified——
2024-07-05421.00——122Not yet classified——
2024-06-28412.15——108Not yet classified——
2024-06-21397.06——61Not yet classified——
2024-06-14383.27——94Not yet classified——
2024-06-07412.41——671Not yet classified——
2024-05-31419.96——134Not yet classified——
2024-05-24411.37——47Not yet classified——
2024-05-17386.13——184Not yet classified——
2024-05-10358.03——78Not yet classified——
2024-05-03328.63——253Not yet classified——
2024-04-26339.68——213Not yet classified——
2024-04-19314.41——21Not yet classified——
2024-04-12318.42——156Not yet classified——
2024-04-05315.41——381Not yet classified——
2024-03-29296.15——121Not yet classified——
2024-03-22300.41——191Not yet classified——
2024-03-15299.66——386Not yet classified——
2024-03-08177.09——163Not yet classified——
2024-03-01178.52——412Not yet classified——
2024-02-23198.39——194Not yet classified——
2024-02-16201.39——120Not yet classified——
2024-02-09206.10——371Not yet classified——
2024-02-02232.40——33Not yet classified——
2024-01-26239.12——95Not yet classified——
2024-01-19240.84——250Not yet classified——
2024-01-12245.84——405Not yet classified——
2024-01-05261.70——370Not yet classified——
2023-12-29230.54——48Not yet classified——
2023-12-22241.12——268Not yet classified——
2023-12-15223.40——254Not yet classified——
2023-12-08199.53——109Not yet classified——
2023-12-01206.82——47Not yet classified——
2023-11-24201.96——94Not yet classified——
2023-11-17195.67——67Not yet classified——
2023-11-10191.24——145Not yet classified——
2023-11-03192.38——185Not yet classified——
2023-10-27223.25——223Not yet classified——
2023-10-20215.82——106Not yet classified——
2023-10-13243.55——140Not yet classified——
2023-10-06249.98——53Not yet classified——
Price vs TrendAbove+35.2%
Trend directionRising+19.4%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+195.2%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+45.8%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+53.9%
Relative strength directionImproving+28.0%
Price momentumPositive+42.4%
Volume balanceDemand-led3.33×
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

82 / ±100

-10.6 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

91 /100

-6.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance1
Rotation Up86
Upward Expansion99
Deceleration40
Rotation Down9
Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 103 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 7%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 68%Deceleration 19%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-06-122026-09-25Established+30.9%
Deceleration2026-05-152026-06-05New+19.5%
Upward Expansion2025-12-192026-05-08Established+24.6%
Deceleration2025-09-262025-12-12Developing+14.0%
Upward Expansion2025-02-282025-09-19Extended+211.3%
Balance2025-01-242025-02-21Developing+20.8%
Upward Expansion2025-01-032025-01-17New-15.4%
Rotation Up2024-11-222024-12-27Developing+1.1%
Balance2024-11-082024-11-15New+5.5%
Deceleration2024-10-112024-11-01New+9.5%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing18
Stage 2 · Advancing100
Stage 3 · Distribution52
Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
99/100
Current Relative Strength
53.94
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+42.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+28.5%
Industrials regime cohort
80th percentile30 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume4.17×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.33×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity EUR 2,961.20rising
Slow Activity EUR 2,430.94rising
Trend Reference EUR 2,246.05+35.2% close margin
Current Fair Value EUR 1,028.40+195.2% close margin
Structural low EUR 1,813.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.7%
Annualized volatility +41.6%
From structural high -1.6%
From structural low +143.1%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^GDAXI Regime survived Read
Near term18+6.0%-12.1% to +190.8%+61.1%+61.1%+3.3%+83.3%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate6+19.7%+9.1% to +140.0%+100.0%+100.0%+16.0%+83.3%Usable descriptive sample
Extended3+42.0%+26.7% to +193.4%+100.0%+100.0%+36.9%+100.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle1+271.6%+271.6% to +271.6%+100.0%+100.0%+248.3%+100.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context