Weekly structural research · MCE · Consumer Cyclical

NXT Stage Analysis

Nueva Expresión Textil, S.A.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 1.01Tenure NewBenchmark ^IBEX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 14−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 61/100lifecycle context

Confidence 85/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +79.7%EUR 0.5597 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	1.01	0.9766	3.92	7250695	Deceleration	14	20
2026-09-25	1.08	0.9699	8.63	2063543	Deceleration	37	24
2026-09-18	1.04	0.9632	5.21	3191260	Upward Expansion	41	28
2026-09-11	1.05	0.9587	5.75	3644951	Upward Expansion	50	45
2026-09-04	1.10	0.9535	9.88	2958206	Upward Expansion	65	66
2026-08-28	1.11	0.9478	11.66	404048	Upward Expansion	66	80
2026-08-21	1.12	0.9433	13.55	538856	Upward Expansion	69	83
2026-08-14	1.16	0.9374	17.44	2007117	Upward Expansion	89	85
2026-08-07	1.11	0.9279	13.71	1848501	Upward Expansion	84	73
2026-07-31	1.06	0.9218	11.90	893128	Upward Expansion	72	67
2026-07-24	1.02	0.9176	9.89	642685	Upward Expansion	65	74
2026-07-17	1.06	0.9112	16.47	1180053	Upward Expansion	75	84
2026-07-10	1.06	0.9026	17.23	7980096	Upward Expansion	83	87
2026-07-03	1.03	0.8929	11.62	1696398	Upward Expansion	78	85
2026-06-26	0.985	0.8858	10.35	796583	Upward Expansion	66	79
2026-06-19	1.01	0.8822	14.17	753573	Upward Expansion	77	83
2026-06-12	1.00	0.8744	17.78	2055952	Upward Expansion	79	79
2026-06-05	0.965	0.866	17.35	2215753	Upward Expansion	70	73
2026-05-29	0.954	0.8582	17.00	2939099	Upward Expansion	69	66
2026-05-22	0.935	0.8515	18.08	2478765	Deceleration	65	54
2026-05-15	0.931	0.8451	21.03	4717371	Deceleration	65	44
2026-05-08	0.892	0.8382	15.29	2882724	Deceleration	44	28
2026-05-01	0.843	0.8343	10.46	2045175	Deceleration	30	20
2026-04-24	0.872	0.8317	15.58	3390267	Deceleration	32	19
2026-04-17	0.872	0.8257	11.49	3034888	Deceleration	24	13
2026-04-10	0.848	0.8178	10.84	2413844	Deceleration	-15	20
2026-04-03	0.81	0.8083	10.66	4003369	Deceleration	-18	26
2026-03-27	0.772	0.8001	11.08	3243427	Deceleration	-26	29
2026-03-20	0.808	0.7925	17.89	3010232	Deceleration	2	17
2026-03-13	0.802	0.7835	15.81	3797253	Deceleration	10	16
2026-03-06	0.804	0.7741	17.09	6990996	Deceleration	20	16
2026-02-27	0.882	0.7639	20.65	4689380	Upward Expansion	42	28
2026-02-20	0.902	0.7501	25.79	2538125	Upward Expansion	55	41
2026-02-13	0.898	0.735	30.23	2967187	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-02-06	0.928	0.7199	34.03	6743029	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-01-30	0.976	0.704	43.06	9467333	Upward Expansion	78	65
2026-01-23	0.94	0.6871	42.24	5321354	Upward Expansion	75	70
2026-01-16	0.87	0.6717	31.96	4540992	Upward Expansion	64	73
2026-01-09	0.926	0.6574	42.25	9820655	Upward Expansion	80	81
2026-01-02	0.936	0.6411	46.57	7880648	Upward Expansion	88	69
2025-12-26	0.832	0.6245	34.17	3824593	Upward Expansion	71	58
2025-12-19	0.80	0.612	30.22	2675729	Upward Expansion	63	57
2025-12-12	0.77	0.6006	28.77	5075882	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-12-05	0.814	0.59	38.44	5530249	Upward Expansion	69	66
2025-11-28	0.876	0.5776	53.85	8026405	Upward Expansion	90	73
2025-11-21	0.774	0.5632	42.94	7566003	Upward Expansion	73	65
2025-11-14	0.748	0.5517	35.48	1881283	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-11-07	0.732	0.5407	37.85	2179751	Upward Expansion	65	65
2025-10-31	0.752	0.5282	42.05	1562186	Upward Expansion	69	68
2025-10-24	0.742	0.5151	43.41	2906908	Upward Expansion	67	83
2025-10-17	0.726	0.5026	44.25	4362926	Upward Expansion	69	86
2025-10-10	0.774	0.4903	56.84	4272961	Upward Expansion	93	97
2025-10-03	0.764	0.4764	55.68	5354879	Upward Expansion	98	97
2025-09-26	0.694	0.4626	45.50	19319850	Upward Expansion	97	94
2025-09-19	0.634	0.4519	35.32	6122876	Upward Expansion	96	98
2025-09-12	0.564	0.4429	21.32	1400859	Upward Expansion	80	92
2025-09-05	0.562	0.4364	25.54	1880985	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-08-29	0.546	0.43	22.21	1239034	Upward Expansion	85	94
2025-08-22	0.538	0.4239	17.59	1743770	Upward Expansion	88	94
2025-08-15	0.518	0.4181	14.69	2557852	Upward Expansion	84	83
2025-08-08	0.499	0.4134	14.33	1986692	Deceleration	81	60
2025-08-01	0.468	0.4095	12.97	1964953	Deceleration	64	39
2025-07-25	0.45	0.4067	8.22	1299774	Upward Expansion	53	37
2025-07-18	0.444	0.4037	9.01	1376567	Upward Expansion	57	46
2025-07-11	0.451	0.4008	10.90	1176780	Upward Expansion	58	46
2025-07-04	0.468	0.3986	15.75	1874994	Upward Expansion	66	50
2025-06-27	0.478	0.3932	18.62	3186746	Upward Expansion	75	51
2025-06-20	0.443	0.3868	11.19	1501543	Upward Expansion	49	41
2025-06-13	0.437	0.382	9.49	1343945	Upward Expansion	62	51
2025-06-06	0.438	0.3774	7.36	2117929	Upward Expansion	66	59
2025-05-30	0.456	0.3731	12.85	1407199	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-05-23	0.457	0.3682	13.84	3715701	Upward Expansion	75	86
2025-05-16	0.452	0.364	13.22	2623974	Upward Expansion	75	88
2025-05-09	0.443	0.3597	15.22	2146374	Upward Expansion	76	88
2025-05-02	0.445	0.3564	16.46	2166549	Upward Expansion	86	89
2025-04-25	0.428	0.3522	12.95	4302637	Upward Expansion	83	80
2025-04-18	0.418	0.3483	14.15	4260408	Deceleration	78	60
2025-04-11	0.358	0.3438	2.75	1913780	Deceleration	21	13
2025-04-04	0.359	0.3416	1.56	1819829	Deceleration	23	12
2025-03-28	0.365	0.3392	-3.93	2008479	Deceleration	25	15
2025-03-21	0.359	0.3371	-5.77	2975624	Deceleration	31	16
2025-03-14	0.356	0.3353	-4.15	1970407	Deceleration	33	17
2025-03-07	0.349	0.3334	-7.86	4698727	Deceleration	36	20
2025-02-28	0.373	0.3316	-2.46	1360525	Deceleration	44	29
2025-02-21	0.366	0.3288	-1.47	1003223	Deceleration	39	27
2025-02-14	0.368	0.3266	-1.16	889736	Deceleration	42	31
2025-02-07	0.369	0.3244	0.64	967336	Upward Expansion	45	35
2025-01-31	0.363	0.3223	1.42	786592	Upward Expansion	58	45
2025-01-24	0.366	0.3208	5.33	1085790	Upward Expansion	62	60
2025-01-17	0.375	0.3196	8.18	1156889	Upward Expansion	64	73
2025-01-10	0.384	0.3174	12.17	2212264	Upward Expansion	71	78
2025-01-03	0.383	0.315	12.27	2082543	Upward Expansion	73	79
2024-12-27	0.361	0.3123	6.67	820534	Upward Expansion	63	69
2024-12-20	0.355	0.3107	5.05	4457512	Upward Expansion	59	56
2024-12-13	0.386	0.3095	11.12	7814783	Upward Expansion	68	45
2024-12-06	0.305	0.3084	-14.78	1241548	Balance	-41	26
2024-11-29	0.286	0.3113	-17.76	654380	Balance	-51	33
2024-11-22	0.30	0.3129	-14.52	450563	Balance	-39	25
2024-11-15	0.30	0.3144	-15.04	603185	Balance	-35	18
2024-11-08	0.308	0.3162	-13.03	3017789	Rotation Up	7	8
2024-11-01	0.308	0.3181	-16.07	3598778	Rotation Up	16	27
2024-10-25	0.332	0.32	-10.36	1509999	Rotation Up	26	41
2024-10-18	0.324	0.3189	-14.29	1144142	Rotation Up	18	30
2024-10-11	0.343	0.3183	-8.93	2709184	Downward Expansion	34	31
2024-10-04	0.319	0.3168	-16.01	1427262	Downward Expansion	-19	11
2024-09-27	0.31	0.3166	-21.72	8632328	Downward Expansion	-49	32
2024-09-20	0.285	0.3162	-27.82	490816	Downward Expansion	-63	49
2024-09-13	0.291	0.3172	-26.22	276473	Downward Expansion	-59	39
2024-09-06	0.288	0.3196	-25.81	188278	Downward Expansion	-65	39
2024-08-30	0.30	0.3203	-25.49	664664	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2024-08-23	0.305	0.3212	-24.57	735671	Downward Expansion	-57	51
2024-08-16	0.301	0.3227	-24.48	331656	Downward Expansion	-59	58
2024-08-09	0.295	0.3251	-25.09	254621	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2024-08-02	0.287	0.3275	-28.40	834628	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2024-07-26	0.301	0.3303	-29.35	539408	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2024-07-19	0.301	0.3329	-29.93	338176	Balance	-57	30
2024-07-12	0.308	0.3349	-30.46	18619687	Balance	-53	27
2024-07-05	0.318	0.3372	-27.93	416196	Balance	-48	27
2024-06-28	0.329	0.3392	-26.14	1730209	Balance	-51	40
2024-06-21	0.31	0.3407	-31.90	208549	Balance	-54	51
2024-06-14	0.312	0.343	-32.47	716001	Balance	-53	44
2024-06-07	0.302	0.3462	-37.84	1267588	Balance	-49	33
2024-05-31	0.312	0.3498	-36.22	2556412	Balance	-41	18
2024-05-24	0.32	0.3534	-34.90	3180383	Balance	-32	15
2024-05-17	0.352	0.3564	-29.78	3057477	Balance	11	15
2024-05-10	0.392	0.3597	-20.99	1614803	Balance	28	21
2024-05-03	0.335	0.3627	-31.41	448484	Balance	-11	13
2024-04-26	0.343	0.3682	-32.22	241362	Balance	-9	18
2024-04-19	0.354	0.3732	-27.99	578491	Downward Expansion	-19	18
2024-04-12	0.365	0.3786	-26.06	1023882	Downward Expansion	-22	15
2024-04-05	0.366	0.3839	-28.06	3310326	Downward Expansion	-33	24
2024-03-29	0.30	0.3889	-42.42	177673	Downward Expansion	-63	49
2024-03-22	0.306	0.3961	-41.21	265956	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2024-03-15	0.297	0.4032	-41.73	693775	Downward Expansion	-71	56
2024-03-08	0.313	0.4116	-37.62	1919903	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2024-03-01	0.297	0.4188	-39.91	570202	Downward Expansion	-79	62
2024-02-23	0.317	0.427	-36.85	1371546	Downward Expansion	-73	59
2024-02-16	0.362	0.435	-26.88	2160356	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2024-02-09	0.309	0.442	-38.08	897992	Downward Expansion	-87	88
2024-02-02	0.328	0.451	-35.93	290414	Downward Expansion	-83	71
2024-01-26	0.35	0.4598	-31.30	599994	Downward Expansion	-76	63
2024-01-19	0.371	0.4671	-27.19	98718	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2024-01-12	0.368	0.4757	-29.92	159324	Downward Expansion	-67	61
2024-01-05	0.37	0.4818	-30.48	326848	Downward Expansion	-67	61
2023-12-29	0.38	0.4875	-28.50	608260	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2023-12-22	0.36	0.4915	-32.67	785006	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2023-12-15	0.379	0.4969	-29.55	253384	Downward Expansion	-69	76
2023-12-08	0.378	0.5006	-31.16	161581	Downward Expansion	-73	87
2023-12-01	0.373	0.504	-32.02	417220	Downward Expansion	-81	90
2023-11-24	0.379	0.5069	-30.02	316804	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2023-11-17	0.409	0.5109	-23.45	146924	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2023-11-10	0.41	0.5139	-20.35	140496	Downward Expansion	-76	88
2023-11-03	0.42	0.5175	-17.82	980509	Downward Expansion	-79	87
2023-10-27	0.41	0.521	-16.49	528703	Downward Expansion	-89	87
2023-10-20	0.451	0.524	-9.19	166422	Rotation Down	-80	76
2023-10-13	0.481	0.5252	-5.14	154707	Rotation Down	-43	53

Price vs TrendAbove+3.0%

Trend directionRising+6.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+79.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-19.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+3.9%

Relative strength directionWeakening-7.7%

Price momentumPositive+24.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.75×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

14 / ±100

-51.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

20 /100

-46.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NXT Directional State ↗ NXT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance55

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion53

Deceleration94

Rotation Down38

Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 11%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 44%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-7.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-09-18	Established	+8.6%
Deceleration	2026-03-06	2026-05-22	Developing	+16.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2026-02-27	Extended	+70.3%
Deceleration	2025-08-01	2025-08-08	New	+6.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-07-25	Established	+5.1%
Deceleration	2025-02-14	2025-04-18	Developing	+13.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-02-07	Developing	-4.4%
Balance	2024-11-15	2024-12-06	New	+1.7%
Rotation Up	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	-4.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-10-11	Developing	+14.0%
Balance	2024-04-26	2024-07-19	Established	-12.2%
Downward Expansion	2023-10-27	2024-04-19	Established	-13.7%
Rotation Down	2023-09-29	2023-10-20	New	-8.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing9

Stage 2 · Advancing89

Stage 3 · Distribution76

Stage 4 · Declining11

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^IBEX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 56/100
Current Relative Strength: 3.92
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +24.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +15.5%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 80th percentile5 in cohort

Test NXT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.05×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.75×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NXT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 1.05falling

Slow Activity EUR 1.03rising

Trend Reference EUR 0.9766+3.0% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 0.5597+79.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 0.793shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.6%

Annualized volatility +24.3%

From structural high -14.7%

From structural low +41.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^IBEX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	10	+0.7%-5.5% to +23.7%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+1.2%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+20.0%-22.8% to +60.7%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+12.6%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	+36.8%-1.6% to +40.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+19.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+52.0%-40.0% to +144.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+23.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NXT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map