Weekly structural research · SAO · Real Estate

PLPL3 Stage Analysis

Plano & Plano Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close BRL 6.71Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^BVSP
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: wide and contracting.
Direction -70−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 64/100directional strength
Maturity 100/100lifecycle context
Confidence 93/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Widecontracting separation
Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -39.8%BRL 11.15 · weakening
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values · 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-256.719.47-46.7713840700Downward Expansion-7064
2026-09-186.589.77-49.3714219300Downward Expansion-7968
2026-09-117.0110.08-47.8110469000Downward Expansion-6765
2026-09-047.2310.38-46.6512382000Downward Expansion-6767
2026-08-287.0210.63-46.327103300Downward Expansion-6880
2026-08-216.9010.90-46.62871400Downward Expansion-7491
2026-08-146.7511.16-47.202128100Downward Expansion-8494
2026-08-077.0211.39-47.541462100Downward Expansion-8293
2026-07-317.3611.64-47.411614800Downward Expansion-7891
2026-07-247.5411.83-45.65905800Downward Expansion-7788
2026-07-177.5812.03-45.974184600Downward Expansion-8079
2026-07-108.1512.23-44.001746500Downward Expansion-7276
2026-07-038.5812.45-40.661051000Downward Expansion-6675
2026-06-268.5412.65-41.341231800Downward Expansion-6884
2026-06-198.3012.88-42.142985600Downward Expansion-7488
2026-06-128.5613.08-41.932402100Downward Expansion-7488
2026-06-058.4013.31-43.042544200Downward Expansion-8191
2026-05-298.8713.50-42.3917228100Downward Expansion-8089
2026-05-229.3313.68-40.9147778300Downward Expansion-8190
2026-05-1510.3013.85-35.8426356600Downward Expansion-7485
2026-05-0810.5513.98-37.2845561000Downward Expansion-7682
2026-05-0110.1914.11-40.9135682300Downward Expansion-8476
2026-04-2411.7414.31-33.6016407900Downward Expansion-7354
2026-04-1713.0714.46-28.2726730300Downward Expansion-5947
2026-04-1013.9114.60-24.6224677500Downward Expansion-5451
2026-04-0313.6314.67-22.8115458300Downward Expansion-5553
2026-03-2713.0314.71-23.8016051100Balance-6344
2026-03-2012.9414.74-22.3114512800Balance-5433
2026-03-1314.3514.73-14.7915908200Balance-118
2026-03-0614.0714.67-17.2712559000Upward Expansion2826
2026-02-2715.4714.64-13.688322200Upward Expansion5554
2026-02-2016.1314.55-10.753479700Balance5553
2026-02-1315.9614.45-9.759663200Balance5434
2026-02-0614.6314.36-15.6213136700Balance48
2026-01-3015.1114.35-12.0211074000Balance1212
2026-01-2314.6114.33-13.619184000Balance-46
2026-01-1613.7314.33-11.729171300Balance-2429
2026-01-0914.6714.35-4.467770400Balance-1031
2026-01-0213.0614.35-12.993340600Balance-2644
2025-12-2613.4714.46-10.155487900Balance-2231
2025-12-1913.4214.48-8.856674600Balance-1917
2025-12-1214.8314.50-0.405240500Deceleration2913
2025-12-0514.6714.471.017368700Deceleration2916
2025-11-2815.3714.415.054223000Deceleration3718
2025-11-2114.2614.290.347090800Deceleration1710
2025-11-1415.4514.196.7710117200Deceleration3517
2025-11-0714.2614.051.075626500Deceleration1820
2025-10-3114.0913.963.005958300Deceleration1721
2025-10-2414.5613.868.925973800Deceleration3220
2025-10-1714.2313.778.624681200Upward Expansion3824
2025-10-1014.4213.6812.386074600Upward Expansion6055
2025-10-0316.0613.5622.454213400Upward Expansion6680
2025-09-2616.2713.3723.663547600Upward Expansion6781
2025-09-1917.2113.1531.295147400Upward Expansion8484
2025-09-1216.0912.9326.775025300Deceleration6557
2025-09-0514.8412.7417.485888300Deceleration4724
2025-08-2913.9612.5712.006607300Deceleration1612
2025-08-2212.7412.425.304118900Deceleration117
2025-08-1512.5012.294.854400900Deceleration-319
2025-08-0813.0912.1310.507098900Deceleration1219
2025-08-0112.9511.9512.523980200Deceleration2522
2025-07-2513.0011.7812.394063900Deceleration3522
2025-07-1813.2611.6115.284260400Deceleration4130
2025-07-1114.2811.4722.263595100Upward Expansion4741
2025-07-0414.6811.3021.903492500Upward Expansion6151
2025-06-2714.4111.1424.603055300Upward Expansion6360
2025-06-2014.2611.0223.972399900Upward Expansion6571
2025-06-1314.7610.9229.318465000Upward Expansion6885
2025-06-0616.3210.8145.377286100Upward Expansion9397
2025-05-3014.1410.6426.562989200Upward Expansion7690
2025-05-2314.1410.5726.836166000Upward Expansion8389
2025-05-1613.8710.5024.265294800Upward Expansion8780
2025-05-0912.8110.4417.957061900Upward Expansion7958
2025-05-0211.7810.4010.193740500Upward Expansion6746
2025-04-2511.1310.394.594844300Rotation Up3233
2025-04-1811.4910.3712.252013500Rotation Up3646
2025-04-1111.5410.3514.673088800Rotation Up4058
2025-04-0411.1610.3311.378477000Rotation Up2756
2025-03-2811.7310.3212.822891100Rotation Up4366
2025-03-2111.6210.2811.264707000Rotation Up4555
2025-03-1410.5810.253.964260100Balance2732
2025-03-0710.5410.246.547790500Balance927
2025-02-289.5810.25-1.733573100Balance-525
2025-02-2110.6810.285.547487800Downward Expansion-326
2025-02-1410.4710.252.485830400Downward Expansion-1427
2025-02-079.5310.23-3.994187000Downward Expansion-4327
2025-01-319.5310.21-5.229801500Downward Expansion-5143
2025-01-248.8610.19-9.237393300Downward Expansion-6670
2025-01-177.7310.20-20.956551900Downward Expansion-7288
2025-01-107.6710.21-19.623997100Rotation Down-7890
2025-01-037.8410.24-17.703792600Rotation Down-5581
2024-12-278.0710.27-16.612888800Rotation Down-5776
2024-12-208.7810.28-10.715574600Deceleration-4257
2024-12-139.2310.26-8.105110300Deceleration-3736
2024-12-069.9010.24-2.517005000Deceleration214
2024-11-2910.7810.206.438305200Deceleration3119
2024-11-2211.5010.2010.784113600Upward Expansion4329
2024-11-1511.2710.1510.014483000Upward Expansion5739
2024-11-0811.3710.1111.305469300Upward Expansion6254
2024-11-0112.0310.1017.756025500Upward Expansion6672
2024-10-2512.0110.0916.633815000Upward Expansion7073
2024-10-1812.0610.0917.283490500Upward Expansion7568
2024-10-1111.5710.0613.892027300Upward Expansion6958
2024-10-0411.3710.0711.273569200Upward Expansion6750
2024-09-2710.6010.103.702909800Rotation Up2928
2024-09-2011.0110.139.333805800Rotation Up3431
2024-09-1310.9410.145.932129200Rotation Up3632
2024-09-0610.7210.124.433273200Rotation Up2326
2024-08-3010.4810.111.145752500Rotation Up2243
2024-08-2310.7010.083.593658600Rotation Up2751
2024-08-1610.2510.080.634882500Rotation Up2140
2024-08-0911.0510.0811.345271800Downward Expansion3740
2024-08-0210.4710.039.606572400Downward Expansion720
2024-07-269.859.981.924470900Downward Expansion-2220
2024-07-199.639.98-0.446671000Downward Expansion-3422
2024-07-129.019.98-7.778318300Downward Expansion-4027
2024-07-059.0310.01-5.615663600Downward Expansion-4432
2024-06-288.9810.04-4.243871400Downward Expansion-5843
2024-06-218.2310.06-10.162221300Downward Expansion-6657
2024-06-148.6010.10-4.834240000Downward Expansion-6265
2024-06-078.4910.14-6.774344100Rotation Down-6474
2024-05-318.5010.17-7.333224800Rotation Down-4168
2024-05-248.2610.16-11.293340600Rotation Down-4065
2024-05-178.4810.14-11.433725900Deceleration-4055
2024-05-108.9110.09-6.145377700Deceleration-3534
2024-05-0310.4910.0110.313145100Deceleration2021
2024-04-2610.149.899.232198700Deceleration1517
2024-04-1910.149.8111.405586700Deceleration2716
2024-04-1211.089.7421.955202700Upward Expansion4429
2024-04-0511.589.6427.892760100Upward Expansion5843
2024-03-2912.209.5534.953130300Upward Expansion7154
2024-03-2211.069.4425.032835000Upward Expansion6363
2024-03-1511.859.3435.833757700Upward Expansion6976
2024-03-0812.239.2341.842571000Upward Expansion8080
2024-03-0111.499.1433.454131400Upward Expansion7468
2024-02-2311.289.0732.904526900Upward Expansion7554
2024-02-1610.549.0026.821959700Upward Expansion6452
2024-02-0910.198.9525.033840700Upward Expansion5847
2024-02-029.778.8822.484538900Upward Expansion5441
2024-01-2610.568.8132.354182000Deceleration6843
2024-01-1910.408.7333.766192500Deceleration6839
2024-01-129.348.6418.933349100Upward Expansion4126
2024-01-059.178.5917.323364000Upward Expansion4634
2023-12-299.748.5124.323371700Upward Expansion6045
2023-12-229.678.4026.499505600Upward Expansion6254
2023-12-159.928.2834.375497200Upward Expansion6971
2023-12-089.808.1538.234802300Upward Expansion6874
2023-12-019.757.9938.834082700Upward Expansion7075
2023-11-249.437.8439.444305100Balance6459
2023-11-179.657.6945.685241900Balance6147
2023-11-109.367.5349.169174900Balance5231
2023-11-038.327.4137.735380200Rotation Down1415
2023-10-277.747.2935.626602000Rotation Down-2040
2023-10-206.767.1920.466315000Deceleration-2847
2023-10-136.567.1115.738470600Deceleration-1328
2023-10-066.907.0324.588302200Deceleration-619
Price vs TrendBelow-29.2%
Trend directionFalling-21.3%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-39.8%
Fair Value directionMoving away-15.7%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-46.8%
Relative strength directionWeakening-5.4%
Price momentumNegative-48.5%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.96×
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ±100

-1.2 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

64 /100

-15.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance10
Rotation Up30
Upward Expansion12
Deceleration61
Rotation Down54
Downward Expansion85

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 20%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 26%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-04-032026-09-25Established-50.8%
Balance2026-03-132026-03-27New-9.2%
Upward Expansion2026-02-272026-03-06New-9.0%
Balance2025-12-192026-02-20Developing+20.2%
Deceleration2025-10-242025-12-12Developing+1.9%
Upward Expansion2025-09-192025-10-17Developing-17.3%
Deceleration2025-07-182025-09-12Developing+21.3%
Upward Expansion2025-05-022025-07-11Developing+21.3%
Rotation Up2025-03-212025-04-25Developing-4.2%
Balance2025-02-282025-03-14New+10.5%
Downward Expansion2025-01-172025-02-21Developing+38.1%
Rotation Down2024-12-272025-01-10New-5.0%
Deceleration2024-11-292024-12-20New-18.5%
Upward Expansion2024-10-042024-11-22Developing+1.1%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing53
Stage 2 · Advancing0
Stage 3 · Distribution17
Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^BVSP

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
86/100
Current Relative Strength
-46.77
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-48.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-49.6%
Real Estate regime cohort
72th percentile53 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.96×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity BRL 6.83falling
Slow Activity BRL 8.12falling
Trend Reference BRL 9.47-29.2% close margin
Current Fair Value BRL 11.15-39.8% close margin
Structural low BRL 6.31shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.2%
Annualized volatility +34.5%
From structural high -60.1%
From structural low +6.3%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^BVSP Regime survived Read
Near term16-4.2%-25.2% to +35.4%+37.5%+62.5%-3.7%+81.2%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate5+27.2%-37.1% to +94.0%+60.0%+40.0%+14.4%+40.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended3+49.1%+7.3% to +71.6%+100.0%+0.0%+55.3%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2+86.8%+71.6% to +102.0%+100.0%+0.0%+88.0%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context