Weekly structural research · LSE · Technology

ALFA Stage Analysis

Alfa Financial Software Holdings PLC

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close GBP 160.80Tenure NewBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -12−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 18/100directional strength

Maturity 11/100lifecycle context

Confidence 48/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -16.7%GBP 192.97 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	160.80	157.52	-13.28	2189759	Balance	-12	18
2026-10-02	155.00	157.93	-16.55	2503505	Balance	-20	28
2026-09-25	155.00	159.33	-19.19	3432534	Balance	-9	20
2026-09-18	157.80	160.59	-18.36	2936141	Rotation Up	-6	12
2026-09-11	155.80	161.66	-20.28	3108191	Rotation Up	-3	7
2026-09-04	165.00	162.64	-17.90	685335	Rotation Up	32	38
2026-08-28	167.60	163.68	-17.53	3478954	Rotation Up	37	52
2026-08-21	168.20	165.26	-17.91	143443	Rotation Up	31	46
2026-08-14	166.60	166.71	-18.89	408481	Balance	8	28
2026-08-07	166.20	168.22	-20.87	233733	Balance	7	20
2026-07-31	163.80	169.78	-22.53	603774	Balance	-2	13
2026-07-24	161.60	171.29	-23.38	558391	Downward Expansion	-14	16
2026-07-17	160.40	172.97	-23.64	230157	Downward Expansion	-23	15
2026-07-10	157.80	174.83	-24.84	915877	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2026-07-03	161.40	176.95	-25.12	684628	Downward Expansion	-53	37
2026-06-26	154.60	178.97	-27.79	584601	Downward Expansion	-57	47
2026-06-19	150.20	181.40	-29.59	742825	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2026-06-12	150.20	183.72	-31.02	281267	Downward Expansion	-63	43
2026-06-05	156.60	186.20	-28.17	429669	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2026-05-29	159.00	188.21	-28.18	2944440	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2026-05-22	155.38	190.49	-30.95	3450767	Downward Expansion	-45	39
2026-05-15	155.98	192.88	-29.62	5969147	Downward Expansion	-47	41
2026-05-08	161.98	195.17	-27.99	12164943	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2026-05-01	151.39	197.54	-34.28	2496520	Downward Expansion	-66	54
2026-04-24	157.35	200.12	-32.51	1774095	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2026-04-17	160.75	202.58	-33.49	6011601	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2026-04-10	148.76	205.23	-38.60	3825776	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2026-04-03	146.76	208.12	-39.06	1420380	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2026-03-27	142.36	211.39	-38.72	1971558	Downward Expansion	-88	93
2026-03-20	151.35	214.07	-35.13	4450621	Downward Expansion	-89	83
2026-03-13	172.95	216.51	-28.96	6802157	Downward Expansion	-81	69
2026-03-06	196.94	218.01	-19.89	2832075	Downward Expansion	-61	70
2026-02-27	192.94	219.04	-26.50	2024270	Downward Expansion	-62	75
2026-02-20	189.94	220.13	-26.68	2248821	Downward Expansion	-69	74
2026-02-13	185.14	221.07	-27.48	2977302	Downward Expansion	-79	71
2026-02-06	196.14	222.31	-23.21	8278381	Downward Expansion	-69	44
2026-01-30	214.94	223.10	-15.15	2338083	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2026-01-23	211.94	223.31	-15.98	2255795	Downward Expansion	-54	45
2026-01-16	211.94	223.75	-16.92	2377014	Downward Expansion	-56	54
2026-01-09	212.94	224.09	-15.81	6088835	Downward Expansion	-57	55
2026-01-02	208.94	224.83	-16.20	409443	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2025-12-26	211.94	226.02	-14.67	321782	Balance	-62	47
2025-12-19	216.44	226.92	-13.41	2355745	Balance	-54	28
2025-12-12	221.43	227.64	-9.46	4043977	Balance	-48	23
2025-12-05	221.93	228.37	-9.67	1286355	Balance	-47	23
2025-11-28	227.43	229.06	-8.15	901098	Balance	-46	28
2025-11-21	219.93	229.21	-9.71	2691650	Balance	-53	36
2025-11-14	224.43	228.99	-9.60	2287468	Balance	-46	30
2025-11-07	216.94	228.46	-12.86	6769937	Balance	-56	32
2025-10-31	227.43	228.01	-9.30	2178903	Balance	-5	7
2025-10-24	226.93	227.42	-9.08	743764	Balance	15	10
2025-10-17	224.93	227.25	-7.26	1935413	Balance	24	13
2025-10-10	232.93	227.20	-4.70	2017515	Balance	47	21
2025-10-03	228.93	226.94	-6.93	1311191	Balance	47	29
2025-09-26	230.93	227.19	-4.00	800732	Balance	51	43
2025-09-19	240.38	227.47	0.73	1346360	Balance	57	48
2025-09-12	235.38	227.54	-2.02	2025914	Balance	51	33
2025-09-05	244.88	227.79	2.75	5503555	Balance	25	16
2025-08-29	222.89	227.28	-6.27	1327401	Balance	-33	15
2025-08-22	224.39	227.30	-6.91	751762	Balance	-33	14
2025-08-15	217.89	226.57	-7.77	929176	Balance	-53	25
2025-08-08	227.88	226.03	-3.00	1215931	Balance	3	6
2025-08-01	225.89	225.28	-3.39	2664521	Balance	-14	16
2025-07-25	217.89	225.01	-7.19	1167318	Balance	-23	28
2025-07-18	222.39	224.91	-3.81	2364235	Balance	-15	21
2025-07-11	219.89	224.68	-4.19	705101	Balance	-9	21
2025-07-04	221.39	224.68	-2.10	993553	Balance	12	18
2025-06-27	224.89	224.49	-0.16	802606	Upward Expansion	24	14
2025-06-20	222.39	224.34	-0.78	1487217	Upward Expansion	28	18
2025-06-13	234.88	224.19	4.08	1994969	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-06-06	244.88	224.17	9.00	1547103	Upward Expansion	66	69
2025-05-30	238.88	223.32	7.58	1731459	Upward Expansion	59	68
2025-05-23	237.87	222.79	8.19	866330	Upward Expansion	57	59
2025-05-16	243.36	222.02	11.62	1051850	Balance	68	52
2025-05-09	242.86	220.60	13.76	4015106	Balance	54	31
2025-05-02	231.87	219.14	8.75	4120643	Rotation Down	5	13
2025-04-25	213.36	217.97	2.72	1172994	Rotation Down	-22	38
2025-04-18	208.36	217.52	2.32	3295458	Deceleration	-25	39
2025-04-11	203.36	217.54	4.16	2397639	Deceleration	-33	34
2025-04-04	209.86	217.80	6.58	3074612	Deceleration	4	19
2025-03-28	221.85	218.07	5.18	2093680	Upward Expansion	32	20
2025-03-21	223.35	217.12	6.40	3808545	Upward Expansion	42	26
2025-03-14	225.35	216.21	7.97	2454768	Upward Expansion	58	50
2025-03-07	236.34	215.02	13.02	3625408	Upward Expansion	64	73
2025-02-28	239.34	213.31	13.24	2220268	Upward Expansion	64	76
2025-02-21	242.34	211.53	17.09	3822198	Upward Expansion	71	74
2025-02-14	242.84	209.61	16.78	3133835	Deceleration	70	61
2025-02-07	229.85	207.65	11.33	3411481	Deceleration	46	22
2025-01-31	223.35	206.18	8.86	5378364	Deceleration	24	16
2025-01-24	202.36	205.16	0.89	1707723	Deceleration	-0	14
2025-01-17	201.86	204.59	0.68	3190480	Deceleration	2	10
2025-01-10	205.36	204.18	5.74	1391983	Deceleration	19	13
2025-01-03	217.85	203.43	12.79	386977	Deceleration	34	19
2024-12-27	214.86	202.23	12.93	295910	Deceleration	35	19
2024-12-20	215.35	201.25	14.89	1640928	Deceleration	39	24
2024-12-13	219.85	199.99	15.04	3289113	Upward Expansion	53	32
2024-12-06	215.85	198.34	13.57	2082015	Upward Expansion	57	42
2024-11-29	220.35	196.89	16.86	1852551	Upward Expansion	60	51
2024-11-22	217.85	195.21	16.51	1407271	Upward Expansion	62	70
2024-11-15	234.34	193.79	29.07	4926933	Upward Expansion	81	82
2024-11-08	219.35	191.35	21.58	1339160	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-11-01	222.85	189.86	22.63	3406567	Deceleration	74	55
2024-10-25	214.86	188.15	17.93	3064125	Deceleration	57	32
2024-10-18	200.86	186.63	9.33	496524	Deceleration	37	19
2024-10-11	199.07	185.41	9.99	727745	Upward Expansion	42	26
2024-10-04	196.67	184.32	8.58	784330	Upward Expansion	57	40
2024-09-27	199.87	183.39	10.01	1661984	Upward Expansion	63	68
2024-09-20	208.82	182.49	16.19	2100751	Upward Expansion	66	75
2024-09-13	211.31	181.52	17.38	3386780	Upward Expansion	73	77
2024-09-06	217.81	180.52	22.89	2978383	Upward Expansion	83	74
2024-08-30	193.63	178.94	7.20	647053	Upward Expansion	56	42
2024-08-23	196.03	178.18	9.45	330365	Deceleration	60	35
2024-08-16	189.63	177.50	6.43	587985	Deceleration	51	26
2024-08-09	184.84	176.71	5.78	466302	Deceleration	35	19
2024-08-02	186.04	176.09	6.60	904885	Upward Expansion	37	21
2024-07-26	184.84	174.80	4.79	734369	Upward Expansion	41	28
2024-07-19	183.84	173.30	6.09	1052589	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-07-12	185.84	171.85	6.18	1199916	Upward Expansion	57	41
2024-07-05	192.63	170.39	10.94	640500	Upward Expansion	69	54
2024-06-28	185.44	168.89	7.64	1661908	Upward Expansion	59	49
2024-06-21	189.63	167.81	8.78	2803612	Upward Expansion	70	64
2024-06-14	182.84	166.58	5.75	740189	Upward Expansion	62	60
2024-06-07	181.84	165.60	3.69	1891357	Upward Expansion	61	57
2024-05-31	185.24	164.58	4.99	30036595	Upward Expansion	71	57
2024-05-24	177.63	163.38	0.26	440307	Deceleration	57	33
2024-05-17	170.44	162.46	-4.92	950032	Deceleration	36	23
2024-05-10	172.44	162.02	-3.83	247781	Deceleration	39	20
2024-05-03	169.84	161.67	-2.55	468508	Deceleration	35	20
2024-04-26	175.21	161.43	1.63	1225233	Deceleration	57	30
2024-04-19	161.23	161.74	-3.28	593747	Deceleration	25	15
2024-04-12	174.61	161.82	3.82	499217	Deceleration	49	27
2024-04-05	171.42	161.28	3.46	925488	Deceleration	36	21
2024-03-29	169.32	160.89	2.01	683156	Deceleration	33	22
2024-03-22	164.32	160.28	-0.41	1724543	Deceleration	37	23
2024-03-15	166.32	159.68	3.72	694694	Upward Expansion	45	33
2024-03-08	168.82	159.09	6.60	501653	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-03-01	172.82	158.56	9.29	3103396	Upward Expansion	63	61
2024-02-23	179.81	157.74	13.65	325077	Upward Expansion	73	80
2024-02-16	181.31	156.94	14.83	908603	Upward Expansion	82	85
2024-02-09	170.32	156.12	10.24	2076486	Upward Expansion	64	77
2024-02-02	170.82	155.47	10.06	2032529	Rotation Up	67	67
2024-01-26	175.81	154.67	12.98	1474690	Rotation Up	71	56
2024-01-19	165.82	155.30	9.10	571898	Downward Expansion	18	24
2024-01-12	166.32	156.27	7.10	5630554	Downward Expansion	-12	10
2024-01-05	147.34	157.05	-5.92	3981066	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2023-12-29	139.85	158.40	-11.39	432268	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2023-12-22	140.35	159.13	-11.01	2661088	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2023-12-15	141.85	159.74	-8.94	1568700	Balance	-65	43
2023-12-08	147.84	159.84	-5.10	868381	Balance	-57	31
2023-12-01	152.84	159.65	-1.72	857518	Balance	-48	27
2023-11-24	152.84	159.39	-1.27	1203215	Balance	-52	45
2023-11-17	153.34	159.02	-1.19	3174174	Balance	-53	48
2023-11-10	151.34	158.24	-0.60	3450830	Balance	-19	28
2023-11-03	149.34	157.67	-2.69	1382775	Balance	-21	24
2023-10-27	149.84	157.32	-0.70	603840	Balance	-1	9
2023-10-20	157.33	156.86	2.61	1314721	Upward Expansion	41	27

Price vs TrendAbove+2.1%

Trend directionFalling-7.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-16.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-13.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+11.6%

Price momentumPositive+8.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.68×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-12 / ±100

-8.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

18 /100

+10.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ALFA Directional State ↗ ALFA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance56

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration61

Rotation Down56

Downward Expansion41

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 27%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 27%Deceleration 18%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 22%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	+3.7%
Rotation Up	2026-08-21	2026-09-18	Developing	-6.2%
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-08-14	New	+1.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-07-24	Extended	-22.7%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-12-26	Established	-4.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-06-27	Developing	-5.5%
Balance	2025-05-09	2025-05-16	New	+0.2%
Rotation Down	2025-04-25	2025-05-02	New	+8.7%
Deceleration	2025-04-04	2025-04-18	New	-0.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-03-28	Developing	-8.5%
Deceleration	2024-12-20	2025-02-14	Developing	+12.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-08	2024-12-13	Developing	+0.2%
Deceleration	2024-10-18	2024-11-01	New	+10.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-30	2024-10-11	Developing	+2.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing63

Stage 2 · Advancing22

Stage 3 · Distribution24

Stage 4 · Declining78

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 20/100
Current Relative Strength: -13.28
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +8.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +8.6%
Technology regime cohort: 31th percentile13 in cohort

Test ALFA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.62×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.68×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ALFA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 157.36falling

Slow Activity GBP 159.52falling

Trend Reference GBP 157.52+2.1% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 192.97-16.7% close margin

Structural low GBP 145.79shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.9%

Annualized volatility +22.6%

From structural high -33.0%

From structural low +14.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	-1.5%-8.2% to +6.2%	+37.5%	+37.5%	-2.2%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-6.5%-20.2% to +17.3%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-11.9%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+3.1%-25.3% to +25.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-6.9%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-4.1%-33.3% to +43.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-5.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ALFA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map