Weekly structural research · MEX · Consumer Cyclical

NKE Stage Analysis

NIKE, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 634.00Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -68−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 86/100directional strength

Maturity 99/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -52.4%MXN 1,331.63 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	634.00	761.57	-30.84	24393	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2026-09-18	612.99	776.11	-32.40	11950	Downward Expansion	-85	91
2026-09-11	624.93	792.99	-32.73	8022	Downward Expansion	-88	94
2026-09-04	650.22	808.23	-32.10	9603	Downward Expansion	-83	91
2026-08-28	666.14	823.23	-32.22	54920	Downward Expansion	-81	90
2026-08-21	683.47	836.82	-31.97	1656	Downward Expansion	-76	86
2026-08-14	686.78	851.44	-31.45	403	Downward Expansion	-78	78
2026-08-07	707.34	866.38	-33.24	11253	Downward Expansion	-73	59
2026-07-31	717.47	882.15	-33.34	18364	Downward Expansion	-72	53
2026-07-24	733.84	896.11	-32.37	1146	Downward Expansion	-67	48
2026-07-17	768.71	907.78	-30.53	2245	Downward Expansion	-56	49
2026-07-10	774.00	917.21	-30.91	1199	Downward Expansion	-58	51
2026-07-03	771.00	932.08	-32.70	163	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2026-06-26	710.91	946.21	-39.00	482	Downward Expansion	-76	60
2026-06-19	778.90	961.80	-34.59	94	Downward Expansion	-49	48
2026-06-12	773.01	974.78	-35.95	1335	Downward Expansion	-52	52
2026-06-05	753.99	988.01	-36.39	667	Downward Expansion	-68	63
2026-05-29	800.72	1,000.40	-35.50	16726	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2026-05-22	770.11	1,013.60	-38.31	9869	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2026-05-15	728.22	1,030.41	-41.88	29983	Downward Expansion	-80	71
2026-05-08	758.82	1,047.40	-41.70	17387	Downward Expansion	-73	71
2026-05-01	778.60	1,062.39	-39.00	10585	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-04-24	775.60	1,080.72	-40.99	69353	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2026-04-17	798.59	1,096.98	-40.28	116050	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2026-04-10	734.62	1,113.87	-45.69	26230	Downward Expansion	-95	98
2026-04-03	797.15	1,134.30	-41.43	68552	Downward Expansion	-95	97
2026-03-27	931.05	1,153.67	-29.30	9383	Downward Expansion	-79	91
2026-03-20	942.33	1,170.58	-26.34	48667	Downward Expansion	-84	88
2026-03-13	968.77	1,187.83	-26.81	8123	Downward Expansion	-80	65
2026-03-06	1,014.93	1,203.64	-26.09	12335	Downward Expansion	-75	49
2026-02-27	1,070.19	1,215.57	-27.55	4960	Downward Expansion	-64	42
2026-02-20	1,119.21	1,226.31	-25.37	4474	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2026-02-13	1,082.28	1,236.16	-28.74	4452	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2026-02-06	1,100.02	1,245.18	-27.69	7597	Downward Expansion	-61	44
2026-01-30	1,074.05	1,253.61	-26.78	4796	Downward Expansion	-70	43
2026-01-23	1,122.00	1,265.37	-25.21	5286	Downward Expansion	-59	36
2026-01-16	1,134.83	1,273.32	-23.99	9825	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2026-01-09	1,180.72	1,273.76	-20.49	42622	Downward Expansion	-58	58
2026-01-02	1,136.12	1,272.41	-21.99	18126	Downward Expansion	-59	58
2025-12-26	1,084.03	1,274.48	-28.07	67213	Downward Expansion	-71	52
2025-12-19	1,051.62	1,277.68	-29.29	16952	Downward Expansion	-80	51
2025-12-12	1,219.91	1,281.09	-19.88	45899	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2025-12-05	1,194.93	1,281.35	-20.59	5903	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-11-28	1,178.56	1,279.43	-22.71	4244	Rotation Down	-63	67
2025-11-21	1,168.54	1,278.40	-22.08	2956	Rotation Down	-39	63
2025-11-14	1,169.75	1,276.88	-23.32	33792	Rotation Down	-41	58
2025-11-07	1,125.87	1,273.44	-28.12	14020	Rotation Down	-54	63
2025-10-31	1,196.51	1,272.60	-23.56	8529	Rotation Down	-37	56
2025-10-24	1,274.50	1,272.02	-17.19	7198	Rotation Down	-22	42
2025-10-17	1,238.01	1,272.62	-20.91	5161	Rotation Down	-28	45
2025-10-10	1,208.51	1,277.03	-21.94	26617	Deceleration	-38	39
2025-10-03	1,328.35	1,284.16	-16.80	33232	Deceleration	8	23
2025-09-26	1,263.44	1,292.48	-21.78	12308	Deceleration	5	22
2025-09-19	1,305.38	1,304.44	-18.51	3677	Upward Expansion	31	21
2025-09-12	1,347.33	1,312.65	-17.35	22490	Upward Expansion	45	32
2025-09-05	1,378.29	1,317.11	-14.07	37585	Rotation Up	60	50
2025-08-29	1,438.48	1,318.43	-8.19	2149	Rotation Up	38	46
2025-08-22	1,459.78	1,323.97	-8.07	11056	Rotation Up	44	44
2025-08-15	1,442.98	1,324.74	-8.06	5927	Rotation Up	45	43
2025-08-08	1,372.91	1,325.77	-12.39	6044	Rotation Up	24	33
2025-08-01	1,392.30	1,329.07	-9.50	8916	Rotation Up	28	55
2025-07-25	1,414.85	1,333.22	-8.88	27117	Rotation Up	35	65
2025-07-18	1,352.95	1,337.77	-11.28	2869	Rotation Up	22	44
2025-07-11	1,352.94	1,343.85	-11.80	16592	Downward Expansion	6	30
2025-07-04	1,426.83	1,350.48	-9.18	27463	Downward Expansion	16	25
2025-06-27	1,360.31	1,355.97	-12.62	46365	Downward Expansion	-16	13
2025-06-20	1,148.20	1,363.84	-24.91	19368	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2025-06-13	1,140.27	1,378.23	-27.61	14559	Downward Expansion	-51	38
2025-06-06	1,198.18	1,392.50	-25.44	10361	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2025-05-30	1,179.82	1,403.54	-26.96	22623	Downward Expansion	-45	37
2025-05-23	1,153.92	1,416.74	-29.68	12429	Downward Expansion	-49	42
2025-05-16	1,227.72	1,430.59	-25.04	22480	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2025-05-09	1,137.29	1,444.33	-29.05	12024	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2025-05-02	1,147.70	1,458.93	-27.76	11127	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2025-04-25	1,122.93	1,473.39	-30.77	12111	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2025-04-18	1,066.71	1,494.64	-30.02	6963	Downward Expansion	-83	92
2025-04-11	1,100.70	1,514.82	-26.10	20946	Downward Expansion	-84	90
2025-04-04	1,178.90	1,528.62	-21.07	25126	Downward Expansion	-82	83
2025-03-28	1,292.60	1,543.07	-16.38	17232	Balance	-74	70
2025-03-21	1,370.35	1,554.33	-10.67	16315	Balance	-64	35
2025-03-14	1,422.37	1,561.97	-7.06	36739	Balance	-47	22
2025-03-07	1,578.07	1,566.16	2.26	10029	Balance	-5	13
2025-02-28	1,622.00	1,560.10	6.11	61099	Balance	-9	6
2025-02-21	1,551.73	1,553.09	-1.16	107853	Rotation Down	-33	17
2025-02-14	1,481.15	1,545.84	-6.43	62439	Rotation Down	-55	32
2025-02-07	1,417.98	1,540.19	-8.50	24686	Rotation Down	-46	35
2025-01-31	1,604.62	1,536.06	6.51	20000	Rotation Down	-9	15
2025-01-24	1,482.88	1,528.08	-1.74	14381	Rotation Down	-36	54
2025-01-17	1,473.96	1,524.64	0.30	12724	Rotation Down	-40	52
2025-01-10	1,471.90	1,533.93	0.74	57769	Balance	-31	42
2025-01-03	1,516.81	1,542.39	5.02	6770	Balance	-18	27
2024-12-27	1,551.24	1,551.20	6.71	6564	Balance	11	13
2024-12-20	1,535.46	1,552.91	4.95	118280	Balance	9	6
2024-12-13	1,551.73	1,552.67	1.82	31425	Balance	25	12
2024-12-06	1,591.72	1,551.73	4.57	17303	Balance	32	15
2024-11-29	1,596.24	1,549.49	7.69	26356	Balance	22	11
2024-11-22	1,580.09	1,548.33	5.02	61915	Balance	26	15
2024-11-15	1,568.31	1,549.19	3.94	6598	Balance	26	18
2024-11-08	1,529.35	1,550.96	-1.56	39608	Balance	23	14
2024-11-01	1,575.91	1,550.77	3.43	22240	Upward Expansion	35	18
2024-10-25	1,569.30	1,546.92	0.35	27578	Upward Expansion	38	20
2024-10-18	1,640.01	1,546.37	1.98	16115	Upward Expansion	57	37
2024-10-11	1,575.33	1,544.18	-1.33	43559	Rotation Up	57	45
2024-10-04	1,581.37	1,547.01	-1.75	26294	Rotation Up	32	40
2024-09-27	1,760.37	1,549.72	8.65	61791	Rotation Up	59	68
2024-09-20	1,672.24	1,548.71	4.41	37489	Rotation Up	36	40
2024-09-13	1,514.67	1,553.11	-5.00	18617	Rotation Up	20	31
2024-09-06	1,612.20	1,561.38	2.79	14135	Downward Expansion	26	37
2024-08-30	1,630.56	1,566.99	0.30	52212	Downward Expansion	0	23
2024-08-23	1,599.57	1,569.97	-2.79	41516	Downward Expansion	-10	19
2024-08-16	1,547.99	1,575.30	-7.02	86753	Downward Expansion	-33	25
2024-08-09	1,396.44	1,581.48	-14.75	230089	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2024-08-02	1,411.45	1,593.90	-12.94	58218	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2024-07-26	1,334.31	1,604.25	-18.97	46604	Downward Expansion	-65	86
2024-07-19	1,311.61	1,621.09	-21.99	34290	Downward Expansion	-74	88
2024-07-12	1,294.14	1,638.35	-25.26	47931	Downward Expansion	-81	84
2024-07-05	1,365.21	1,664.51	-17.71	97878	Rotation Down	-74	57
2024-06-28	1,379.70	1,685.87	-17.36	97147	Rotation Down	-41	24
2024-06-21	1,752.72	1,704.65	3.74	18712	Rotation Up	31	42
2024-06-14	1,725.54	1,707.19	3.11	13624	Rotation Up	4	22
2024-06-07	1,781.34	1,710.55	4.80	19130	Rotation Up	-5	12
2024-05-31	1,602.34	1,713.32	-9.49	7410	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2024-05-24	1,528.32	1,722.14	-14.37	26049	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2024-05-17	1,523.58	1,731.40	-18.21	17606	Downward Expansion	-67	48
2024-05-10	1,524.40	1,742.58	-18.87	41857	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2024-05-03	1,561.40	1,751.81	-16.63	3960	Downward Expansion	-62	45
2024-04-26	1,606.03	1,758.51	-15.96	17873	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2024-04-19	1,621.44	1,760.46	-12.83	42993	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2024-04-12	1,523.71	1,758.26	-19.68	40548	Downward Expansion	-70	88
2024-04-05	1,460.31	1,762.03	-25.65	9862	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2024-03-29	1,552.84	1,770.53	-20.69	5245	Downward Expansion	-81	86
2024-03-22	1,574.16	1,776.77	-19.15	13575	Balance	-81	80
2024-03-15	1,660.34	1,779.28	-14.82	4659	Balance	-39	46
2024-03-08	1,662.61	1,783.22	-13.36	6977	Balance	-41	28
2024-03-01	1,730.13	1,788.92	-11.36	5506	Balance	-9	10
2024-02-23	1,804.24	1,793.37	-9.82	4664	Rotation Down	-2	9
2024-02-16	1,762.67	1,793.30	-13.07	22728	Rotation Down	-16	18
2024-02-09	1,780.62	1,795.75	-13.03	4495	Rotation Down	-19	31
2024-02-02	1,719.80	1,796.56	-17.83	15122	Rotation Down	-26	45
2024-01-26	1,759.67	1,798.80	-14.58	9660	Balance	-19	32
2024-01-19	1,733.41	1,802.90	-14.28	94239	Balance	-23	32
2024-01-12	1,769.09	1,807.57	-13.34	63981	Balance	-6	23
2024-01-05	1,721.81	1,812.98	-17.10	9222	Upward Expansion	12	12
2023-12-29	1,839.44	1,816.44	-13.98	7408	Upward Expansion	56	39
2023-12-22	1,829.57	1,818.20	-14.98	39145	Upward Expansion	60	63
2023-12-15	2,078.84	1,820.15	-3.70	8654	Rotation Up	84	84
2023-12-08	2,005.93	1,817.95	-2.69	13011	Rotation Up	52	57
2023-12-01	1,943.12	1,820.94	-5.18	18120	Rotation Up	38	36
2023-11-24	1,829.12	1,831.20	-9.37	1099	Balance	18	24
2023-11-17	1,826.06	1,845.73	-9.31	16274	Balance	0	18
2023-11-10	1,864.50	1,859.76	-5.04	45346	Balance	6	25
2023-11-03	1,866.89	1,872.34	-5.10	19548	Balance	7	25
2023-10-27	1,806.17	1,884.51	-3.88	10635	Downward Expansion	-18	26
2023-10-20	1,859.04	1,897.70	0.32	11701	Downward Expansion	-13	22
2023-10-13	1,801.33	1,909.59	-4.91	7172	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2023-10-06	1,762.33	1,924.53	-7.61	13603	Downward Expansion	-63	56

Price vs TrendBelow-16.8%

Trend directionFalling-16.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-52.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-2.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-30.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+8.2%

Price momentumNegative-31.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.22×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-68 / ±100

+12.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

86 /100

-3.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NKE Directional State ↗ NKE Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance5

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion21

Deceleration37

Rotation Down78

Downward Expansion97

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 5%Deceleration 2%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 52%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-09-25	Extended	-46.9%
Rotation Down	2025-10-17	2025-11-28	Developing	-4.8%
Deceleration	2025-09-26	2025-10-10	New	-4.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-09-19	New	-3.1%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-09-05	Developing	+1.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-07-11	Established	+14.8%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-03-28	Developing	-20.3%
Rotation Down	2025-01-17	2025-02-21	Developing	+5.3%
Balance	2024-11-08	2025-01-10	Developing	-3.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-18	2024-11-01	New	-3.9%
Rotation Up	2024-09-13	2024-10-11	Developing	+4.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-12	2024-09-06	Developing	+24.6%
Rotation Down	2024-06-28	2024-07-05	New	-1.0%
Rotation Up	2024-06-07	2024-06-21	New	-1.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing67

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution3

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -30.84
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -31.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -29.4%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 92th percentile48 in cohort

Test NKE trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.39×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.22×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NKE Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 630.89falling

Slow Activity MXN 715.72falling

Trend Reference MXN 761.57-16.8% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 1,331.63-52.4% close margin

Structural low MXN 609.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.6%

Annualized volatility +36.7%

From structural high -55.1%

From structural low +4.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	38	-1.6%-21.4% to +15.5%	+42.1%	+57.9%	-0.5%	+86.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	-8.4%-25.7% to +27.8%	+30.8%	+69.2%	-2.6%	+61.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+5.8%-36.9% to +13.4%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-9.9%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-12.1%-42.8% to +4.5%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-14.7%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NKE Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map