Weekly structural research · TOR · Consumer Defensive

L Stage Analysis

Loblaw Companies Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CAD 62.64Tenure NewBenchmark ^GSPTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -31−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 15/100directional strength

Maturity 18/100lifecycle context

Confidence 57/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +26.0%CAD 49.71 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	62.64	62.79	-5.50	5874100	Balance	-31	15
2026-10-02	62.16	62.81	-5.92	4692300	Balance	-35	19
2026-09-25	62.71	62.80	-5.91	4352300	Balance	-9	8
2026-09-18	61.80	62.81	-7.32	8033200	Downward Expansion	-25	27
2026-09-11	61.13	62.98	-8.17	4670300	Downward Expansion	-51	55
2026-09-04	63.15	63.19	-7.41	1346800	Downward Expansion	-45	51
2026-08-28	60.27	63.32	-11.91	1028300	Balance	-59	56
2026-08-21	60.38	63.34	-12.18	1190400	Balance	-55	36
2026-08-14	61.76	63.42	-10.76	952100	Balance	12	9
2026-08-07	62.89	63.43	-8.56	1313600	Balance	30	20
2026-07-31	65.81	63.39	-1.48	1061300	Balance	61	38
2026-07-24	64.35	63.25	-4.24	715500	Balance	48	24
2026-07-17	65.49	63.15	-2.43	888500	Balance	62	35
2026-07-10	64.18	63.02	-4.63	944900	Balance	42	28
2026-07-03	62.45	62.90	-7.25	651100	Balance	37	40
2026-06-26	65.93	62.88	-1.61	903000	Balance	60	54
2026-06-19	64.09	62.74	-4.51	2889200	Balance	42	35
2026-06-12	64.85	62.69	-3.53	1266400	Balance	19	20
2026-06-05	65.37	62.53	-1.48	1411200	Balance	19	10
2026-05-29	61.52	62.22	-8.39	7334600	Balance	-24	35
2026-05-22	61.28	62.02	-8.34	4849200	Balance	-24	32
2026-05-15	60.52	61.89	-8.11	6228900	Deceleration	-21	31
2026-05-08	60.66	61.83	-8.81	9359300	Deceleration	-20	22
2026-05-01	62.57	61.68	-5.75	6079000	Deceleration	14	11
2026-04-24	62.52	61.41	-6.21	4904700	Deceleration	15	8
2026-04-17	61.04	61.10	-9.88	5664100	Deceleration	4	4
2026-04-10	63.06	60.90	-5.48	5459700	Deceleration	30	13
2026-04-03	64.44	60.63	-1.97	4783300	Deceleration	37	18
2026-03-27	62.94	60.35	-1.04	6167100	Deceleration	26	21
2026-03-20	61.71	60.11	-0.98	9130600	Deceleration	27	23
2026-03-13	63.17	59.93	-2.39	8134100	Upward Expansion	41	25
2026-03-06	62.00	59.70	-5.72	8406600	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-02-27	62.93	59.52	-7.85	11524200	Upward Expansion	63	71
2026-02-20	66.95	59.26	-0.45	4337700	Upward Expansion	77	87
2026-02-13	67.54	58.87	2.95	6039300	Upward Expansion	86	85
2026-02-06	66.78	58.44	3.99	8468400	Upward Expansion	86	67
2026-01-30	60.99	58.04	-3.09	6589200	Upward Expansion	57	40
2026-01-23	62.67	57.86	-3.94	4317800	Upward Expansion	67	48
2026-01-16	62.29	57.62	-4.14	6418000	Upward Expansion	64	46
2026-01-09	61.55	57.38	-3.93	7001400	Upward Expansion	59	43
2026-01-02	61.80	57.16	-1.27	2889800	Upward Expansion	62	44
2025-12-26	61.16	56.92	-2.59	1707800	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-12-19	61.57	56.79	-1.17	10822100	Upward Expansion	65	65
2025-12-12	60.79	56.59	-1.70	7271900	Upward Expansion	63	74
2025-12-05	61.74	56.37	0.57	8622100	Upward Expansion	67	78
2025-11-28	61.57	56.11	0.20	9020700	Upward Expansion	72	77
2025-11-21	62.59	55.91	6.22	7898200	Upward Expansion	81	69
2025-11-14	60.09	55.60	1.77	7726800	Balance	71	52
2025-11-07	56.23	55.36	-3.27	6156600	Balance	48	38
2025-10-31	55.35	55.17	-5.83	6554100	Balance	46	35
2025-10-24	57.55	55.02	-2.37	4471500	Balance	59	48
2025-10-17	58.77	54.73	0.67	7256000	Balance	66	32
2025-10-10	56.11	54.35	-2.87	5064500	Balance	24	15
2025-10-03	54.51	54.03	-7.47	5195500	Balance	10	16
2025-09-26	53.09	53.79	-7.70	6803800	Balance	-2	11
2025-09-19	55.08	53.58	-4.29	11286700	Upward Expansion	34	15
2025-09-12	55.05	53.19	-2.70	4775200	Upward Expansion	40	23
2025-09-05	56.08	52.81	-0.09	3532400	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-08-29	55.56	52.41	0.72	6366200	Upward Expansion	55	38
2025-08-22	56.34	52.05	3.07	6633200	Upward Expansion	59	42
2025-08-15	56.30	51.71	4.75	6233600	Upward Expansion	60	43
2025-08-08	56.48	51.32	5.83	4583600	Deceleration	65	41
2025-08-01	55.36	50.94	6.81	5608000	Deceleration	45	30
2025-07-25	55.02	50.67	4.54	7388400	Deceleration	42	31
2025-07-18	54.69	50.40	4.79	6943200	Deceleration	44	35
2025-07-11	54.88	50.14	6.48	5206400	Upward Expansion	47	39
2025-07-04	55.50	49.91	7.83	4988000	Upward Expansion	51	42
2025-06-27	55.37	49.63	9.27	7071600	Upward Expansion	59	45
2025-06-20	55.06	49.27	9.81	6909200	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-06-13	55.05	48.89	10.12	6557200	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-06-06	54.73	48.54	10.13	8214800	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-05-30	57.19	48.24	16.54	9066000	Upward Expansion	80	68
2025-05-23	55.42	47.79	14.75	5634400	Upward Expansion	73	67
2025-05-16	54.25	47.36	12.41	8837600	Upward Expansion	67	77
2025-05-09	53.89	47.00	14.83	8710400	Upward Expansion	67	85
2025-05-02	55.58	46.65	20.50	6723600	Upward Expansion	87	93
2025-04-25	53.46	46.22	18.03	5212800	Upward Expansion	82	89
2025-04-18	52.78	45.89	19.61	6292800	Upward Expansion	84	86
2025-04-11	50.70	45.56	18.49	12419600	Upward Expansion	76	78
2025-04-04	50.67	45.35	21.10	11183600	Upward Expansion	81	76
2025-03-28	48.98	45.08	10.30	8558800	Upward Expansion	72	69
2025-03-21	47.42	44.89	6.27	11172800	Deceleration	60	43
2025-03-14	46.30	44.72	5.73	10389600	Deceleration	37	27
2025-03-07	47.45	44.58	7.70	10332000	Deceleration	47	24
2025-02-28	46.66	44.35	3.54	10314800	Deceleration	24	17
2025-02-21	43.33	44.16	-2.71	8404000	Deceleration	-27	28
2025-02-14	43.93	44.09	-2.56	7096000	Deceleration	0	13
2025-02-07	43.96	44.01	-2.19	9156800	Deceleration	10	15
2025-01-31	44.83	43.91	-0.43	6083600	Deceleration	27	21
2025-01-24	45.95	43.74	2.53	5319600	Deceleration	36	19
2025-01-17	44.67	43.51	1.57	6889600	Upward Expansion	40	24
2025-01-10	45.06	43.28	3.95	5934800	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-01-03	47.17	43.05	7.87	3441200	Upward Expansion	65	73
2024-12-27	47.08	42.79	9.36	1493600	Upward Expansion	66	78
2024-12-20	46.95	42.51	10.43	10276000	Upward Expansion	69	76
2024-12-13	47.78	42.22	9.91	8097600	Upward Expansion	81	69
2024-12-06	47.10	41.91	7.16	6784400	Upward Expansion	80	54
2024-11-29	44.64	41.61	2.15	7661600	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-11-22	43.80	41.38	1.42	6286800	Upward Expansion	58	44
2024-11-15	44.59	41.16	5.84	6472800	Upward Expansion	64	47
2024-11-08	45.58	40.88	9.16	5814800	Upward Expansion	78	51
2024-11-01	43.59	40.55	6.99	5735200	Upward Expansion	52	36
2024-10-25	42.50	40.31	3.83	5084000	Upward Expansion	45	32
2024-10-18	43.54	40.12	5.20	4665200	Upward Expansion	62	45
2024-10-11	43.59	39.91	7.24	5351600	Upward Expansion	64	45
2024-10-04	42.48	39.69	6.30	7796800	Upward Expansion	61	50
2024-09-27	43.67	39.48	10.58	5166400	Upward Expansion	69	59
2024-09-20	42.86	39.20	9.45	14772400	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-09-13	44.34	38.94	15.21	6906800	Upward Expansion	84	87
2024-09-06	42.69	38.58	15.46	4889200	Upward Expansion	68	73
2024-08-30	43.09	38.25	14.34	5115200	Upward Expansion	78	64
2024-08-23	42.36	37.92	13.30	5114000	Upward Expansion	74	59
2024-08-16	42.30	37.59	14.84	4406000	Upward Expansion	78	60
2024-08-09	40.41	37.26	13.95	4965600	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-08-02	41.00	36.97	16.62	5467200	Upward Expansion	67	81
2024-07-26	41.34	36.63	15.19	5917200	Upward Expansion	74	84
2024-07-19	41.47	36.29	16.82	5939600	Upward Expansion	83	84
2024-07-12	40.74	35.93	15.44	5771600	Upward Expansion	81	61
2024-07-05	40.02	35.54	17.08	4507600	Upward Expansion	77	54
2024-06-28	38.88	35.21	15.23	6488400	Upward Expansion	67	50
2024-06-21	37.79	34.87	14.12	13412000	Upward Expansion	61	50
2024-06-14	38.30	34.59	15.67	7075200	Upward Expansion	65	59
2024-06-07	39.30	34.30	17.24	9846400	Upward Expansion	79	77
2024-05-31	38.65	33.97	14.51	11633200	Upward Expansion	73	73
2024-05-24	38.25	33.65	13.51	7981200	Upward Expansion	69	71
2024-05-17	38.45	33.27	13.74	6564000	Upward Expansion	76	67
2024-05-10	38.12	32.89	13.92	7246800	Upward Expansion	76	64
2024-05-03	37.59	32.54	14.54	4684000	Upward Expansion	72	59
2024-04-26	37.21	32.23	13.68	5404400	Upward Expansion	73	60
2024-04-19	36.20	31.92	11.74	7289200	Upward Expansion	61	58
2024-04-12	35.79	31.63	10.30	5967600	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-04-05	36.51	31.37	10.89	6420800	Upward Expansion	66	74
2024-03-29	36.65	31.10	12.01	6122800	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-03-22	37.32	30.83	15.26	9139200	Upward Expansion	85	94
2024-03-15	36.78	30.53	14.71	11876000	Upward Expansion	84	93
2024-03-08	36.19	30.24	13.81	10507600	Upward Expansion	85	92
2024-03-01	35.33	29.98	12.45	8320800	Upward Expansion	83	88
2024-02-23	35.20	29.74	13.18	7556000	Upward Expansion	89	91
2024-02-16	33.54	29.50	8.95	4809600	Upward Expansion	77	82
2024-02-09	32.62	29.35	7.48	5482000	Upward Expansion	67	81
2024-02-02	33.13	29.23	9.02	5287600	Upward Expansion	80	88
2024-01-26	32.51	29.08	7.15	8157600	Upward Expansion	75	80
2024-01-19	32.61	28.98	8.80	7792000	Upward Expansion	82	84
2024-01-12	31.51	28.83	4.94	6989200	Upward Expansion	74	78
2024-01-05	30.87	28.71	3.25	4248000	Upward Expansion	66	66
2023-12-29	31.23	28.61	4.40	2024800	Upward Expansion	77	68
2023-12-22	30.69	28.52	2.98	10844000	Upward Expansion	73	44
2023-12-15	28.87	28.47	-1.54	17186400	Upward Expansion	54	35
2023-12-08	30.09	28.49	3.50	11282800	Rotation Up	72	66
2023-12-01	28.67	28.48	-2.01	17893200	Rotation Up	30	47
2023-11-24	29.52	28.51	2.60	6884800	Rotation Up	27	37
2023-11-17	29.54	28.54	2.42	8791200	Downward Expansion	27	29
2023-11-10	29.43	28.56	4.94	4597600	Downward Expansion	-5	7
2023-11-03	29.01	28.59	2.81	5638800	Downward Expansion	-30	22
2023-10-27	26.83	28.64	0.74	5300800	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2023-10-20	27.05	28.73	-0.39	6040400	Downward Expansion	-69	49

Price vs TrendBelow-0.2%

Trend directionFalling-0.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+26.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-11.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.5%

Relative strength directionWeakening-0.9%

Price momentumNegative-0.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.48×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-31 / ±100

+20.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

15 /100

-40.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

L Directional State ↗ L Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance61

Rotation Up26

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration41

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion58

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 62%Deceleration 14%Downward Expansion 5%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-0.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-09-04	2026-09-18	New	-2.1%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-08-28	Established	-1.7%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-05-15	Developing	-1.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-03-13	Established	+0.9%
Balance	2025-09-26	2025-11-14	Developing	+13.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-09-19	Developing	-2.2%
Deceleration	2025-07-18	2025-08-08	New	+3.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-28	2025-07-11	Established	+12.0%
Deceleration	2025-01-24	2025-03-21	Developing	+3.2%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-15	2025-01-17	Extended	+54.7%
Rotation Up	2023-11-24	2023-12-08	New	+2.0%
Downward Expansion	2023-08-25	2023-11-17	Established	+4.9%
Balance	2023-07-14	2023-08-18	Developing	-3.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing42

Stage 2 · Advancing40

Stage 3 · Distribution82

Stage 4 · Declining60

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GSPTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 63/100
Current Relative Strength: -5.50
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -0.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -6.5%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 100th percentile3 in cohort

Test L trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.28×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.48×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore L Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CAD 62.31rising

Slow Activity CAD 62.76falling

Trend Reference CAD 62.79-0.2% close margin

Current Fair Value CAD 49.71+26.0% close margin

Structural low CAD 58.70shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.3%

Annualized volatility +19.5%

From structural high -9.6%

From structural low +15.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GSPTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	10	+1.1%-5.7% to +8.8%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+1.8%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+4.7%-4.6% to +15.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.3%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+8.9%+4.6% to +18.6%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+5.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+10.3%+2.4% to +18.1%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-3.4%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

L Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map