Weekly structural research · NYSE · Energy

BORR Stage Analysis

Borr Drilling Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 4.78Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -22−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 16/100directional strength

Maturity 44/100lifecycle context

Confidence 54/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +6.9%USD 4.47 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	4.78	4.84	-4.79	51410774	Downward Expansion	-22	16
2026-10-02	3.91	4.85	-20.66	29237099	Downward Expansion	-68	43
2026-09-25	4.20	4.90	-14.76	28318238	Downward Expansion	-45	26
2026-09-18	4.46	4.96	-8.07	35628669	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2026-09-11	4.27	5.01	-11.70	23418108	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2026-09-04	4.54	5.06	-6.56	24445663	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2026-08-28	4.45	5.08	-7.99	21266157	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2026-08-21	4.50	5.09	-6.16	28512000	Downward Expansion	-49	38
2026-08-14	4.43	5.09	-8.43	48271770	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2026-08-07	3.86	5.09	-19.57	21937787	Downward Expansion	-71	64
2026-07-31	4.03	5.10	-12.66	19955068	Downward Expansion	-69	57
2026-07-24	4.23	5.10	-6.64	16974116	Rotation Down	-64	51
2026-07-17	4.16	5.09	-8.09	17475068	Rotation Down	-42	55
2026-07-10	4.33	5.08	-5.04	22805095	Rotation Down	-38	59
2026-07-03	4.49	5.07	0.59	21919058	Rotation Down	-37	62
2026-06-26	4.36	5.05	0.64	35102542	Rotation Down	-32	61
2026-06-19	4.22	5.02	-3.99	26513737	Balance	-35	52
2026-06-12	4.58	4.98	5.90	46718406	Balance	-29	32
2026-06-05	4.81	4.94	12.73	44781170	Balance	-1	10
2026-05-29	5.01	4.88	15.73	44907134	Upward Expansion	21	13
2026-05-22	5.52	4.82	30.96	68620153	Upward Expansion	51	34
2026-05-15	6.26	4.73	52.16	23766220	Upward Expansion	66	45
2026-05-08	5.85	4.61	45.23	29855815	Upward Expansion	55	38
2026-05-01	6.10	4.50	57.56	43120122	Upward Expansion	66	45
2026-04-24	5.69	4.39	51.27	35431986	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-04-17	5.57	4.30	51.32	49724124	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-04-10	5.90	4.21	70.10	29459319	Deceleration	66	48
2026-04-03	5.83	4.11	77.40	28597213	Deceleration	56	39
2026-03-27	6.05	4.02	94.49	43381184	Upward Expansion	66	43
2026-03-20	4.70	3.92	50.95	51999340	Upward Expansion	50	44
2026-03-13	5.06	3.85	61.57	39818134	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-03-06	5.54	3.76	76.83	36458265	Upward Expansion	68	85
2026-02-27	6.13	3.65	95.00	31487757	Upward Expansion	84	93
2026-02-20	5.95	3.50	92.08	37653301	Upward Expansion	89	94
2026-02-13	5.64	3.38	87.10	40279589	Upward Expansion	90	94
2026-02-06	5.30	3.25	75.95	41966723	Upward Expansion	90	87
2026-01-30	4.68	3.15	56.62	30547838	Upward Expansion	80	73
2026-01-23	4.47	3.06	50.84	16980651	Upward Expansion	77	64
2026-01-16	4.26	2.97	43.70	22915671	Upward Expansion	73	61
2026-01-09	4.26	2.90	43.41	28137772	Upward Expansion	77	66
2026-01-02	3.99	2.83	36.04	12662668	Upward Expansion	69	71
2025-12-26	3.97	2.76	33.35	12288466	Upward Expansion	70	81
2025-12-19	3.90	2.69	32.69	31018885	Upward Expansion	71	80
2025-12-12	3.94	2.62	33.98	38418597	Upward Expansion	79	79
2025-12-05	4.05	2.54	36.68	31182374	Upward Expansion	89	81
2025-11-28	3.31	2.47	12.26	12611410	Upward Expansion	69	66
2025-11-21	3.09	2.42	8.02	18125573	Upward Expansion	61	63
2025-11-14	3.24	2.38	10.05	28183140	Upward Expansion	69	67
2025-11-07	3.18	2.34	7.25	26706365	Deceleration	69	49
2025-10-31	3.10	2.30	2.01	29404432	Deceleration	64	35
2025-10-24	3.01	2.25	-1.37	28887669	Deceleration	50	27
2025-10-17	2.58	2.22	-15.16	15507962	Deceleration	38	22
2025-10-10	2.44	2.22	-20.04	22204435	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-10-03	2.86	2.21	-10.59	19133257	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-09-26	2.93	2.19	-9.40	17227215	Upward Expansion	64	76
2025-09-19	2.95	2.18	-10.95	26434966	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-09-12	3.01	2.18	-9.91	16858411	Rotation Up	75	86
2025-09-05	3.04	2.18	-9.37	19171207	Rotation Up	53	75
2025-08-29	2.91	2.19	-14.64	27193735	Rotation Up	54	69
2025-08-22	2.72	2.21	-22.03	23681042	Balance	47	47
2025-08-15	2.31	2.23	-35.27	35801935	Balance	3	11
2025-08-08	2.17	2.27	-40.16	31893202	Balance	-7	5
2025-08-01	1.88	2.33	-48.23	22425642	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2025-07-25	2.21	2.40	-42.15	16296551	Downward Expansion	-8	8
2025-07-18	1.88	2.44	-51.39	19512379	Downward Expansion	-33	23
2025-07-11	2.05	2.50	-48.10	21085155	Downward Expansion	-22	15
2025-07-04	2.11	2.56	-48.04	26319895	Downward Expansion	-30	22
2025-06-27	1.83	2.60	-55.20	20679262	Downward Expansion	-42	25
2025-06-20	2.08	2.66	-48.61	29259569	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2025-06-13	2.26	2.72	-45.45	39401220	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-06-06	1.93	2.78	-54.52	29646604	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2025-05-30	1.75	2.84	-58.99	25094458	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2025-05-23	1.64	2.92	-61.89	29879048	Downward Expansion	-75	65
2025-05-16	1.78	3.02	-60.68	20879143	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2025-05-09	1.85	3.13	-57.81	23418795	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2025-05-02	1.72	3.25	-61.66	30605999	Downward Expansion	-77	68
2025-04-25	1.93	3.38	-56.51	23949548	Downward Expansion	-70	67
2025-04-18	1.95	3.50	-54.80	17289111	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-04-11	2.01	3.62	-54.82	55002157	Downward Expansion	-70	67
2025-04-04	1.71	3.73	-60.07	26621609	Downward Expansion	-90	91
2025-03-28	2.24	3.85	-53.23	13684151	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2025-03-21	2.33	3.98	-52.98	22659806	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2025-03-14	2.25	4.12	-55.20	29302732	Downward Expansion	-83	92
2025-03-07	2.41	4.24	-54.00	40174220	Downward Expansion	-83	90
2025-02-28	2.52	4.36	-54.21	28898679	Downward Expansion	-86	88
2025-02-21	2.91	4.47	-48.32	38131838	Downward Expansion	-78	77
2025-02-14	3.10	4.59	-46.62	25752659	Downward Expansion	-74	72
2025-02-07	3.22	4.70	-44.58	23518162	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2025-01-31	3.44	4.81	-41.72	31949602	Downward Expansion	-66	51
2025-01-24	3.48	4.90	-42.30	24175116	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2025-01-17	3.44	4.99	-42.93	28074489	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2025-01-10	3.93	5.08	-33.91	16996061	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2025-01-03	4.01	5.15	-34.68	22981270	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2024-12-27	3.57	5.21	-42.94	14113349	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2024-12-20	3.57	5.32	-43.49	21946742	Downward Expansion	-69	66
2024-12-13	3.70	5.42	-43.41	20484973	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2024-12-06	3.33	5.49	-50.05	20436765	Downward Expansion	-86	93
2024-11-29	3.69	5.56	-44.93	17008369	Downward Expansion	-79	91
2024-11-22	4.02	5.62	-40.06	21421820	Downward Expansion	-69	88
2024-11-15	3.92	5.66	-41.28	22115302	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2024-11-08	3.93	5.70	-42.98	25658160	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2024-11-01	4.05	5.76	-39.12	22736361	Downward Expansion	-87	87
2024-10-25	4.66	5.81	-31.64	14719072	Downward Expansion	-77	68
2024-10-18	5.13	5.88	-26.28	11009332	Downward Expansion	-67	52
2024-10-11	5.32	5.92	-23.64	9011390	Downward Expansion	-62	44
2024-10-04	5.55	5.96	-20.33	9627128	Downward Expansion	-56	50
2024-09-27	5.57	5.99	-20.54	7487981	Downward Expansion	-56	60
2024-09-20	5.57	6.00	-20.86	8356322	Balance	-48	54
2024-09-13	5.43	6.01	-22.40	8606901	Balance	-37	44
2024-09-06	5.34	6.04	-21.43	12101474	Balance	-31	29
2024-08-30	6.02	6.06	-15.87	8549796	Balance	22	11
2024-08-23	6.38	6.05	-11.12	6884751	Balance	36	20
2024-08-16	6.10	6.07	-14.43	8366686	Balance	27	15
2024-08-09	5.89	6.08	-14.69	8247723	Balance	-5	5
2024-08-02	5.84	6.09	-16.24	10343176	Balance	9	12
2024-07-26	6.54	6.12	-9.33	8468218	Balance	34	40
2024-07-19	6.44	6.13	-12.14	10012244	Balance	30	30
2024-07-12	6.42	6.15	-14.74	5878531	Balance	21	16
2024-07-05	6.10	6.16	-18.84	4206877	Balance	-19	11
2024-06-28	6.29	6.15	-15.26	16660955	Balance	15	10
2024-06-21	6.07	6.14	-18.87	3826551	Balance	10	16
2024-06-14	6.03	6.14	-19.21	7715897	Rotation Up	13	24
2024-06-07	6.00	6.14	-18.73	9816682	Rotation Up	2	20
2024-05-31	6.72	6.13	-8.41	7517353	Downward Expansion	18	25
2024-05-24	6.58	6.11	-11.23	16119228	Downward Expansion	-13	10
2024-05-17	5.66	6.08	-23.97	6738138	Downward Expansion	-58	50
2024-05-10	5.59	6.11	-24.39	6221242	Downward Expansion	-63	70
2024-05-03	5.33	6.15	-27.06	11461719	Downward Expansion	-64	74
2024-04-26	5.30	6.19	-27.62	8181183	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2024-04-19	5.31	6.24	-26.12	15798652	Balance	-65	60
2024-04-12	5.62	6.28	-24.66	11807933	Balance	-56	38
2024-04-05	5.57	6.33	-27.17	23922722	Balance	-46	19
2024-03-29	6.59	6.37	-15.27	9135777	Balance	12	16
2024-03-22	6.53	6.38	-16.28	5647920	Balance	-18	13
2024-03-15	6.57	6.38	-14.44	12180169	Balance	-22	11
2024-03-08	6.28	6.40	-18.58	10867360	Balance	-49	26
2024-03-01	5.95	6.45	-23.46	7181686	Balance	-52	44
2024-02-23	5.92	6.53	-23.70	6592524	Balance	-57	44
2024-02-16	6.21	6.59	-19.17	7226908	Balance	-39	31
2024-02-09	6.03	6.63	-22.13	7923155	Balance	-42	27
2024-02-02	5.62	6.68	-26.76	14907135	Balance	-53	30
2024-01-26	6.92	6.73	-8.67	5044616	Balance	2	7
2024-01-19	6.37	6.73	-15.08	6630704	Balance	-11	11
2024-01-12	6.25	6.72	-15.84	9952833	Downward Expansion	-12	19
2024-01-05	6.84	6.73	-6.25	6834758	Downward Expansion	17	28
2023-12-29	6.97	6.73	-5.73	4432685	Downward Expansion	3	17
2023-12-22	6.90	6.73	-6.17	10840216	Downward Expansion	-16	14
2023-12-15	6.64	6.73	-8.57	15043645	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2023-12-08	5.85	6.74	-17.13	9322265	Downward Expansion	-61	40
2023-12-01	5.95	6.76	-15.29	8463229	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2023-11-24	6.19	6.78	-11.05	4979159	Downward Expansion	-61	59
2023-11-17	5.86	6.80	-14.58	8240178	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2023-11-10	5.69	6.82	-14.95	5023661	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2023-11-03	6.08	6.87	-7.80	4573519	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2023-10-27	5.83	6.89	-6.36	7592491	Downward Expansion	-76	57
2023-10-20	6.57	6.94	3.42	9152763	Deceleration	-26	23

Price vs TrendBelow-1.2%

Trend directionFalling-5.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+6.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+14.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.2%

Price momentumNegative-19.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.27×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-22 / ±100

+17.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

16 /100

-6.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BORR Directional State ↗ BORR Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance52

Rotation Up25

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration62

Rotation Down35

Downward Expansion63

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 20%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 47%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-10-09	Developing	+18.6%
Rotation Down	2026-06-26	2026-07-24	Developing	-3.0%
Balance	2026-06-05	2026-06-19	New	-12.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-05-29	Developing	-10.1%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-04-10	New	+1.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2026-03-27	Established	+86.7%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-07	New	+23.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-10-10	New	-17.3%
Rotation Up	2025-08-29	2025-09-12	New	+3.4%
Balance	2025-08-08	2025-08-22	New	+25.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-27	2025-08-01	Extended	-66.3%
Balance	2024-06-21	2024-09-20	Established	-8.2%
Rotation Up	2024-06-07	2024-06-14	New	+0.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-04-26	2024-05-31	Developing	+26.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing18

Stage 3 · Distribution41

Stage 4 · Declining82

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 64/100
Current Relative Strength: -4.79
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -19.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -33.9%
Energy regime cohort: 3th percentile38 in cohort

Test BORR trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.69×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.27×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BORR Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 4.36falling

Slow Activity USD 4.53falling

Trend Reference USD 4.84-1.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 4.47+6.9% close margin

Structural low USD 3.75shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +9.7%

Annualized volatility +51.6%

From structural high -28.2%

From structural low +93.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	23	-5.6%-27.5% to +54.8%	+43.5%	+56.5%	-5.8%	+82.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+17.2%-37.2% to +60.1%	+62.5%	+37.5%	+4.2%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-9.1%-58.6% to +56.0%	+40.0%	+60.0%	-26.7%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-20.0%-35.4% to +127.4%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-53.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BORR Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map