Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Cyclical

SLGN Stage Analysis

Silgan Holdings Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 35.44Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Structural failure

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -70−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 78/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 83/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -21.5%USD 45.15 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	35.44	40.30	-21.41	6075820	Rotation Down	-70	78
2026-10-02	34.87	40.49	-22.25	6213296	Rotation Down	-50	69
2026-09-25	35.91	40.79	-20.59	9643322	Rotation Down	-39	60
2026-09-18	37.19	41.18	-17.18	5418094	Balance	-33	42
2026-09-11	38.63	41.54	-14.48	3959960	Balance	-26	22
2026-09-04	41.18	41.85	-10.00	7226037	Balance	-11	11
2026-08-28	41.89	42.09	-8.82	3459018	Balance	-3	11
2026-08-21	42.18	42.12	-8.27	4194595	Balance	-3	16
2026-08-14	42.27	42.14	-9.83	4493483	Balance	3	12
2026-08-07	41.50	42.15	-11.81	4929067	Rotation Up	8	10
2026-07-31	39.78	42.17	-13.00	13159335	Rotation Up	14	21
2026-07-24	46.43	42.21	2.03	10061945	Rotation Up	40	65
2026-07-17	47.18	42.01	2.31	5586359	Rotation Up	40	67
2026-07-10	44.98	41.78	-4.67	4392866	Rotation Up	27	59
2026-07-03	46.39	41.60	-1.18	3749450	Rotation Up	40	45
2026-06-26	46.23	41.33	-0.23	5024545	Downward Expansion	35	32
2026-06-19	41.65	41.09	-12.89	3900427	Downward Expansion	-25	14
2026-06-12	40.91	41.01	-14.52	5219139	Downward Expansion	-49	32
2026-06-05	36.63	40.89	-23.81	4195236	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2026-05-29	37.35	40.92	-25.15	3422896	Rotation Down	-63	60
2026-05-22	37.69	40.95	-24.31	4027963	Rotation Down	-35	45
2026-05-15	36.42	41.15	-27.11	3713903	Deceleration	-46	43
2026-05-08	40.03	41.35	-20.69	3672248	Deceleration	-15	17
2026-05-01	39.49	41.40	-20.79	5124829	Deceleration	-19	17
2026-04-24	38.80	41.49	-22.33	2922516	Deceleration	-27	23
2026-04-17	41.75	41.59	-16.84	3988609	Rotation Down	-19	26
2026-04-10	41.24	41.60	-14.92	3374563	Rotation Down	-23	38
2026-04-03	39.25	41.67	-16.78	3154827	Rotation Down	-24	42
2026-03-27	37.86	41.84	-17.72	4314187	Rotation Down	-38	45
2026-03-20	37.84	42.12	-20.24	5316368	Rotation Down	-24	30
2026-03-13	41.18	42.40	-15.41	4420250	Upward Expansion	28	23
2026-03-06	43.94	42.54	-11.67	4367267	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-02-27	47.54	42.59	-6.93	3918404	Rotation Up	68	88
2026-02-20	47.90	42.50	-7.18	4497981	Rotation Up	52	82
2026-02-13	48.13	42.72	-6.16	6163836	Rotation Up	61	80
2026-02-06	48.37	42.92	-7.29	7965619	Rotation Up	55	70
2026-01-30	42.69	43.11	-18.71	4460482	Balance	6	27
2026-01-23	42.91	43.54	-18.55	2862438	Balance	4	19
2026-01-16	42.40	43.88	-20.25	3829090	Downward Expansion	-2	14
2026-01-09	42.27	44.23	-21.27	5093313	Downward Expansion	-20	18
2026-01-02	40.81	44.59	-23.25	3036958	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-12-26	40.43	45.00	-25.21	2175415	Downward Expansion	-40	29
2025-12-19	40.41	45.45	-24.70	4495846	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2025-12-12	39.61	45.87	-26.60	5689318	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2025-12-05	38.28	46.36	-30.01	4753908	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2025-11-28	39.02	46.83	-28.99	4063857	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2025-11-21	39.09	47.31	-26.88	7168783	Downward Expansion	-65	84
2025-11-14	37.40	47.68	-31.93	5565751	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2025-11-07	37.60	48.04	-32.00	7265365	Downward Expansion	-86	74
2025-10-31	38.02	48.38	-32.87	13363044	Downward Expansion	-89	70
2025-10-24	43.88	48.67	-22.59	4989808	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2025-10-17	42.48	48.86	-23.98	4466517	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-10-10	41.46	49.06	-24.93	6010576	Downward Expansion	-73	83
2025-10-03	42.09	49.29	-26.03	5000153	Downward Expansion	-70	84
2025-09-26	41.83	49.60	-26.09	6426199	Downward Expansion	-77	82
2025-09-19	42.13	49.97	-26.19	6872669	Downward Expansion	-81	81
2025-09-12	43.29	50.33	-23.65	4727825	Downward Expansion	-79	79
2025-09-05	44.46	50.63	-20.75	5217328	Downward Expansion	-76	83
2025-08-29	45.99	50.89	-18.17	4817139	Downward Expansion	-64	83
2025-08-22	46.27	51.14	-18.05	4579427	Downward Expansion	-65	83
2025-08-15	45.55	51.30	-19.39	5034056	Rotation Down	-68	81
2025-08-08	45.45	51.49	-19.11	5189735	Rotation Down	-44	58
2025-08-01	44.77	51.61	-18.66	13926671	Rotation Down	-35	28
2025-07-25	54.61	51.77	-3.64	3014961	Upward Expansion	59	55
2025-07-18	54.10	51.65	-3.09	3128386	Upward Expansion	54	48
2025-07-11	53.90	51.54	-2.73	3172977	Upward Expansion	54	45
2025-07-04	55.54	51.52	0.16	2091284	Upward Expansion	71	48
2025-06-27	53.32	51.47	-1.88	3917376	Rotation Up	44	27
2025-06-20	52.87	51.55	0.90	2568781	Rotation Up	26	23
2025-06-13	53.07	51.61	1.34	2640857	Rotation Up	29	33
2025-06-06	53.11	51.57	1.26	2187452	Rotation Up	31	44
2025-05-30	53.77	51.54	4.33	1976467	Rotation Up	34	49
2025-05-23	53.17	51.44	5.07	2686416	Rotation Up	21	36
2025-05-16	54.15	51.32	4.42	2818102	Balance	28	32
2025-05-09	52.41	51.21	6.52	3538028	Balance	5	16
2025-05-02	53.56	51.13	8.48	5399947	Downward Expansion	-10	10
2025-04-25	50.23	51.01	4.86	3808214	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2025-04-18	48.15	51.00	5.17	2532662	Downward Expansion	-58	56
2025-04-11	47.79	51.05	2.87	5768292	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2025-04-04	46.69	51.09	6.19	3576300	Rotation Down	-72	71
2025-03-28	49.52	51.17	2.45	3647084	Rotation Down	-25	42
2025-03-21	48.60	51.20	-0.97	7165960	Balance	-35	37
2025-03-14	48.26	51.23	-1.12	3935793	Balance	-24	15
2025-03-07	51.56	51.23	3.25	4085701	Deceleration	43	22
2025-02-28	52.82	51.09	2.66	3398416	Deceleration	51	39
2025-02-21	52.91	50.98	1.98	2937365	Deceleration	44	31
2025-02-14	52.21	50.76	-0.95	2708114	Deceleration	35	26
2025-02-07	52.28	50.48	0.66	3502532	Deceleration	35	24
2025-01-31	53.51	50.16	2.86	6468165	Deceleration	43	18
2025-01-24	51.10	49.71	-2.77	2045492	Deceleration	7	17
2025-01-17	51.17	49.36	-1.01	2235439	Deceleration	6	20
2025-01-10	49.13	49.08	-2.17	1879847	Deceleration	3	23
2025-01-03	49.61	48.87	-3.22	1769631	Deceleration	13	21
2024-12-27	51.11	48.69	-1.01	1790524	Upward Expansion	39	22
2024-12-20	50.75	48.50	-1.20	10096756	Upward Expansion	58	45
2024-12-13	53.32	48.31	1.72	3132606	Upward Expansion	65	75
2024-12-06	53.86	48.05	2.09	2609549	Upward Expansion	67	83
2024-11-29	55.77	47.78	6.61	2178885	Upward Expansion	86	92
2024-11-22	54.80	47.41	6.04	3375592	Upward Expansion	87	85
2024-11-15	51.91	47.09	2.18	3184942	Upward Expansion	70	62
2024-11-08	52.00	46.88	0.19	3019614	Upward Expansion	75	63
2024-11-01	51.03	46.67	2.93	3152488	Upward Expansion	69	52
2024-10-25	49.34	46.51	-1.95	1585138	Upward Expansion	59	42
2024-10-18	50.84	46.42	-0.09	2217829	Upward Expansion	68	49
2024-10-11	49.99	46.17	-1.07	2089203	Upward Expansion	61	45
2024-10-04	49.94	45.94	-0.12	2819688	Upward Expansion	62	45
2024-09-27	49.97	45.68	0.09	3225626	Upward Expansion	64	47
2024-09-20	49.80	45.41	0.08	3125461	Upward Expansion	65	51
2024-09-13	48.98	45.21	-0.37	1890451	Upward Expansion	63	60
2024-09-06	48.93	44.98	3.32	2100198	Upward Expansion	65	71
2024-08-30	50.48	44.78	2.14	2320814	Upward Expansion	78	82
2024-08-23	49.51	44.54	0.31	1662805	Upward Expansion	77	82
2024-08-16	48.39	44.29	-0.80	2722899	Upward Expansion	71	75
2024-08-09	47.28	44.06	0.55	3479604	Rotation Up	64	53
2024-08-02	49.51	43.87	5.09	4575470	Rotation Up	70	51
2024-07-26	46.21	43.65	-4.02	2922616	Rotation Down	18	10
2024-07-19	43.78	43.55	-9.99	2564326	Rotation Down	-28	40
2024-07-12	42.76	43.54	-14.22	2885201	Rotation Down	-35	60
2024-07-05	39.91	43.53	-19.61	2394128	Rotation Down	-44	67
2024-06-28	40.88	43.55	-16.63	3339218	Balance	-39	50
2024-06-21	42.74	43.56	-13.37	2028223	Balance	-19	22
2024-06-14	42.61	43.47	-13.52	3008419	Upward Expansion	10	12
2024-06-07	44.37	43.39	-8.97	2311630	Upward Expansion	37	20
2024-05-31	45.45	43.21	-6.01	1959740	Upward Expansion	44	29
2024-05-24	44.94	43.04	-7.75	3141741	Upward Expansion	41	27
2024-05-17	45.42	42.80	-7.18	2068610	Upward Expansion	44	30
2024-05-10	46.02	42.58	-4.87	2726408	Upward Expansion	63	39
2024-05-03	44.51	42.33	-6.72	4809826	Upward Expansion	55	38
2024-04-26	45.17	42.16	-5.27	2573222	Upward Expansion	61	58
2024-04-19	45.59	42.02	-2.35	2034436	Upward Expansion	64	75
2024-04-12	45.66	41.88	-5.86	3581727	Upward Expansion	66	76
2024-04-05	46.26	41.76	-6.62	3787987	Upward Expansion	76	77
2024-03-29	46.71	41.57	-7.17	2877293	Upward Expansion	82	67
2024-03-22	43.48	41.44	-13.91	2567679	Upward Expansion	56	28
2024-03-15	42.82	41.42	-14.02	2778269	Upward Expansion	51	26
2024-03-08	42.40	41.41	-15.58	3912925	Upward Expansion	46	23
2024-03-01	41.87	41.42	-17.54	2347947	Upward Expansion	49	28
2024-02-23	43.67	41.42	-13.95	2203564	Upward Expansion	62	47
2024-02-16	42.10	41.36	-16.35	2886066	Balance	50	32
2024-02-09	42.95	41.48	-15.64	2701822	Balance	27	20
2024-02-02	43.34	41.54	-14.34	4422071	Balance	23	14
2024-01-26	41.95	41.58	-16.53	2380953	Balance	10	9
2024-01-19	41.33	41.67	-17.50	1332950	Rotation Up	15	16
2024-01-12	41.60	41.74	-16.54	1702364	Rotation Up	20	41
2024-01-05	42.92	41.86	-12.91	1923037	Rotation Up	22	47
2023-12-29	43.34	41.92	-14.02	1378508	Rotation Up	28	43
2023-12-22	43.54	41.92	-13.92	2529603	Downward Expansion	32	31
2023-12-15	42.35	41.93	-16.10	4169219	Downward Expansion	1	12
2023-12-08	40.53	42.02	-18.37	2212470	Downward Expansion	-30	20
2023-12-01	41.04	42.19	-17.74	2730058	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2023-11-24	40.15	42.34	-19.40	1002848	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2023-11-17	40.21	42.56	-19.02	3160094	Downward Expansion	-48	36
2023-11-10	39.01	42.92	-20.07	1786980	Downward Expansion	-63	51
2023-11-03	40.42	43.26	-16.49	3028693	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2023-10-27	37.60	43.56	-18.16	4697485	Downward Expansion	-82	89
2023-10-20	38.98	44.00	-17.65	3107545	Downward Expansion	-69	74

Price vs TrendBelow-12.1%

Trend directionFalling-4.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-21.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-20.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-21.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-16.7%

Price momentumNegative-14.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.33×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ±100

-43.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

78 /100

+55.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SLGN Directional State ↗ SLGN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance19

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion18

Deceleration37

Rotation Down81

Downward Expansion96

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 14%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 26%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-1.3%
Balance	2026-08-14	2026-09-18	Developing	-12.0%
Rotation Up	2026-07-03	2026-08-07	Developing	-10.5%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-06-26	New	+26.2%
Rotation Down	2026-05-22	2026-05-29	New	-0.9%
Deceleration	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-6.1%
Rotation Down	2026-03-20	2026-04-17	Developing	+10.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-03-13	New	-6.3%
Rotation Up	2026-02-06	2026-02-27	New	-1.7%
Balance	2026-01-23	2026-01-30	New	-0.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-22	2026-01-16	Established	-8.4%
Rotation Down	2025-08-01	2025-08-15	New	+1.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-07-25	New	-1.7%
Rotation Up	2025-05-23	2025-06-27	Developing	+0.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution27

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: -21.41
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -14.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -28.9%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 78th percentile41 in cohort

Test SLGN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.06×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.33×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SLGN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 35.83falling

Slow Activity USD 40.27falling

Trend Reference USD 40.30-12.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 45.15-21.5% close margin

Structural low USD 33.70shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +8.7%

Annualized volatility +39.2%

From structural high -27.7%

From structural low +5.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	9	+4.5%-12.8% to +24.1%	+77.8%	+22.2%	+0.8%	+11.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+0.4%-15.1% to +25.1%	+57.1%	+42.9%	-5.4%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+4.4%-15.5% to +24.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-5.2%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+6.0%-11.2% to +39.2%	+75.0%	+25.0%	-5.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SLGN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map