Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Consumer Defensive

KDP Stage Analysis

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 31.76Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 36−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 15/100directional strength

Maturity 35/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +4.3%USD 30.44 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	31.76	30.03	-4.15	50433129	Upward Expansion	36	15
2026-10-02	30.37	29.88	-8.18	60386786	Upward Expansion	24	13
2026-09-25	31.72	29.80	-3.52	47728461	Upward Expansion	50	23
2026-09-18	30.74	29.74	-3.40	63866897	Upward Expansion	47	24
2026-09-11	31.16	29.70	-1.23	39362449	Upward Expansion	51	32
2026-09-04	32.35	29.64	1.89	42673639	Upward Expansion	58	37
2026-08-28	31.95	29.50	0.80	37755404	Deceleration	53	30
2026-08-21	32.04	29.34	1.29	50360565	Deceleration	46	25
2026-08-14	31.44	29.19	-3.73	70131666	Deceleration	36	20
2026-08-07	30.01	29.05	-7.72	68481284	Deceleration	31	22
2026-07-31	31.12	28.97	-0.16	71983428	Deceleration	38	22
2026-07-24	29.68	28.84	-4.81	47963036	Upward Expansion	44	31
2026-07-17	30.91	28.78	-3.02	62553069	Upward Expansion	60	50
2026-07-10	31.67	28.66	-5.33	74123329	Upward Expansion	64	68
2026-07-03	33.30	28.57	0.70	63843320	Upward Expansion	79	85
2026-06-26	33.40	28.40	1.34	121895652	Upward Expansion	86	83
2026-06-19	30.55	28.20	-11.89	66736169	Upward Expansion	64	72
2026-06-12	31.49	28.09	-7.53	77158201	Upward Expansion	82	78
2026-06-05	30.32	27.93	-9.55	52562583	Upward Expansion	74	67
2026-05-29	29.82	27.77	-15.62	51689510	Upward Expansion	69	59
2026-05-22	28.92	27.67	-16.56	51367973	Balance	57	53
2026-05-15	28.73	27.59	-16.84	43072158	Balance	56	41
2026-05-08	28.63	27.56	-18.12	47227180	Balance	43	32
2026-05-01	28.89	27.45	-13.74	66976069	Balance	18	18
2026-04-24	29.02	27.33	-12.87	75887278	Rotation Down	11	10
2026-04-17	26.53	27.20	-19.42	56768002	Rotation Down	-30	47
2026-04-10	26.57	27.20	-15.49	48260555	Rotation Down	-23	47
2026-04-03	25.31	27.19	-16.89	43225757	Balance	-36	43
2026-03-27	26.23	27.28	-11.57	49706502	Balance	-26	32
2026-03-20	26.36	27.35	-14.72	57542566	Balance	6	12
2026-03-13	27.17	27.61	-14.51	47600771	Rotation Up	39	24
2026-03-06	28.00	27.84	-13.45	45775566	Rotation Up	30	52
2026-02-27	30.02	28.02	-8.99	76719180	Rotation Up	47	65
2026-02-20	29.28	28.10	-11.89	31287628	Balance	38	52
2026-02-13	29.43	28.21	-10.88	60159363	Balance	40	34
2026-02-06	28.16	28.32	-16.03	45029188	Balance	-15	8
2026-01-30	27.20	28.47	-20.80	53350139	Balance	-35	20
2026-01-23	27.52	28.66	-20.42	48812057	Balance	-30	18
2026-01-16	27.17	28.81	-21.58	57791589	Balance	-30	20
2026-01-09	27.55	28.98	-21.58	46296788	Balance	-26	18
2026-01-02	27.49	29.13	-20.40	27879798	Balance	-14	12
2025-12-26	27.63	29.27	-21.75	30118871	Balance	-12	17
2025-12-19	27.42	29.44	-21.77	102780474	Balance	-12	19
2025-12-12	29.01	29.58	-17.20	86487456	Downward Expansion	-2	18
2025-12-05	28.21	29.71	-21.38	72266037	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2025-11-28	27.43	29.85	-23.15	57023885	Downward Expansion	-43	34
2025-11-21	27.27	30.04	-20.27	74097298	Downward Expansion	-44	35
2025-11-14	26.67	30.24	-24.82	95327265	Downward Expansion	-47	40
2025-11-07	25.52	30.50	-28.58	81157386	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2025-10-31	26.70	30.78	-28.03	153857761	Downward Expansion	-50	46
2025-10-24	26.70	30.98	-27.16	59896917	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2025-10-17	27.56	31.18	-23.77	114134909	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2025-10-10	25.39	31.34	-28.66	83191997	Downward Expansion	-72	89
2025-10-03	25.40	31.57	-30.83	74752955	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2025-09-26	25.07	31.79	-31.56	102204289	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2025-09-19	26.42	32.02	-28.91	115268034	Downward Expansion	-80	93
2025-09-12	26.53	32.23	-27.73	103705705	Downward Expansion	-85	91
2025-09-05	27.92	32.36	-23.27	121668535	Rotation Down	-82	76
2025-08-29	28.34	32.43	-22.03	191819336	Rotation Down	-43	32
2025-08-22	34.23	32.51	-6.75	32703882	Upward Expansion	66	62
2025-08-15	33.89	32.37	-8.85	36779644	Balance	62	48
2025-08-08	33.54	32.25	-9.69	40249187	Balance	57	30
2025-08-01	32.47	32.11	-9.71	55953837	Balance	28	13
2025-07-25	32.42	32.04	-12.25	61536759	Balance	31	18
2025-07-18	32.68	31.98	-11.05	43746254	Balance	32	18
2025-07-11	32.63	31.92	-10.26	58396933	Balance	29	16
2025-07-04	32.92	31.90	-9.89	37490145	Balance	30	13
2025-06-27	32.01	31.84	-11.19	48047547	Balance	5	10
2025-06-20	32.49	31.81	-6.33	44060227	Balance	10	10
2025-06-13	31.95	31.77	-8.08	46699869	Balance	6	14
2025-06-06	31.71	31.71	-9.46	56320837	Balance	13	15
2025-05-30	32.58	31.70	-5.35	50035965	Balance	26	19
2025-05-23	31.85	31.66	-5.91	42156070	Upward Expansion	25	17
2025-05-16	32.72	31.70	-5.84	51518066	Upward Expansion	37	19
2025-05-09	32.45	31.78	-0.43	94349566	Upward Expansion	52	32
2025-05-02	33.29	31.86	1.78	83877559	Upward Expansion	58	53
2025-04-25	33.29	31.90	5.09	68365228	Rotation Up	60	56
2025-04-18	34.25	31.98	14.95	42453392	Rotation Up	45	52
2025-04-11	34.02	32.03	11.75	81246617	Rotation Up	45	40
2025-04-04	32.71	32.08	15.84	81965009	Rotation Up	24	24
2025-03-28	32.65	32.16	4.53	74366469	Rotation Up	25	33
2025-03-21	32.24	32.22	0.95	64304897	Balance	19	26
2025-03-14	32.28	32.28	1.45	72757992	Balance	1	21
2025-03-07	32.04	32.32	-1.66	67804040	Balance	-3	18
2025-02-28	32.21	32.35	-4.24	155042016	Downward Expansion	-4	12
2025-02-21	32.71	32.38	-6.02	50767672	Downward Expansion	-12	14
2025-02-14	30.42	32.36	-14.65	44271108	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2025-02-07	29.83	32.39	-14.14	49837628	Downward Expansion	-63	42
2025-01-31	30.85	32.42	-11.36	37325230	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-01-24	29.94	32.43	-15.43	33675377	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2025-01-17	30.39	32.48	-13.21	39605627	Downward Expansion	-61	62
2025-01-10	29.20	32.55	-14.54	34059905	Downward Expansion	-78	69
2025-01-03	30.31	32.65	-13.62	24726809	Downward Expansion	-67	45
2024-12-27	30.79	32.72	-13.35	19066403	Downward Expansion	-61	40
2024-12-20	30.88	32.77	-12.72	84627477	Rotation Down	-62	40
2024-12-13	32.01	32.82	-11.94	43374003	Rotation Down	-30	33
2024-12-06	31.22	32.81	-13.79	42428792	Rotation Down	-35	55
2024-11-29	31.15	32.84	-11.58	38191652	Rotation Down	-29	65
2024-11-22	31.16	32.86	-11.26	55356919	Rotation Down	-28	64
2024-11-15	30.21	32.88	-12.78	53636043	Rotation Down	-47	63
2024-11-08	31.37	32.87	-12.90	49885325	Rotation Down	-39	44
2024-11-01	31.31	32.77	-8.69	143385483	Rotation Down	-6	22
2024-10-25	32.99	32.69	-5.71	55204167	Upward Expansion	26	20
2024-10-18	35.24	32.56	0.51	37704739	Upward Expansion	55	44
2024-10-11	34.71	32.31	-0.91	41416761	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-10-04	34.72	32.05	0.30	39970045	Upward Expansion	66	60
2024-09-27	35.70	31.81	3.10	26358037	Upward Expansion	73	84
2024-09-20	35.52	31.53	3.38	53713061	Upward Expansion	75	87
2024-09-13	35.66	31.29	5.00	26505405	Upward Expansion	83	90
2024-09-06	34.95	31.06	8.77	27157770	Upward Expansion	80	85
2024-08-30	34.72	30.87	1.63	26310978	Upward Expansion	83	85
2024-08-23	33.88	30.70	-1.84	25746197	Upward Expansion	75	80
2024-08-16	33.56	30.57	-2.13	34600910	Upward Expansion	74	73
2024-08-09	32.77	30.44	0.34	34532749	Deceleration	64	51
2024-08-02	33.26	30.35	1.85	44503781	Deceleration	74	43
2024-07-26	31.99	30.23	-5.27	56270126	Deceleration	42	26
2024-07-19	31.27	30.20	-10.10	41331449	Deceleration	31	25
2024-07-12	30.93	30.17	-14.93	41182130	Deceleration	37	24
2024-07-05	30.97	30.13	-15.39	27682993	Upward Expansion	44	31
2024-06-28	31.67	30.10	-10.82	41200340	Upward Expansion	52	45
2024-06-21	32.39	30.04	-9.15	38197706	Upward Expansion	66	56
2024-06-14	32.07	29.97	-10.13	31881991	Upward Expansion	65	58
2024-06-07	32.63	29.88	-5.71	33943252	Upward Expansion	75	78
2024-05-31	32.27	29.75	-4.48	31723959	Upward Expansion	72	85
2024-05-24	32.21	29.64	-6.40	28136071	Upward Expansion	74	87
2024-05-17	31.80	29.49	-6.65	36603025	Upward Expansion	69	84
2024-05-10	32.06	29.32	-4.22	26544741	Upward Expansion	80	86
2024-05-03	31.87	29.12	-3.84	35012978	Rotation Up	74	76
2024-04-26	31.77	28.99	-3.69	51038815	Rotation Up	55	45
2024-04-19	29.68	28.91	-6.95	46721772	Downward Expansion	21	25
2024-04-12	28.47	28.94	-16.20	35277073	Downward Expansion	-33	23
2024-04-05	28.99	29.02	-15.86	49447620	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2024-03-29	28.90	29.08	-17.57	59719093	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2024-03-22	27.88	29.15	-21.58	56085540	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2024-03-15	27.02	29.24	-22.48	73202476	Downward Expansion	-79	85
2024-03-08	27.26	29.38	-23.47	55118358	Downward Expansion	-80	81
2024-03-01	27.39	29.51	-25.08	98902581	Downward Expansion	-72	72
2024-02-23	28.25	29.63	-22.00	67818607	Balance	-61	50
2024-02-16	28.98	29.73	-19.72	44408461	Balance	-37	25
2024-02-09	29.14	29.77	-21.20	41118007	Balance	-14	13
2024-02-02	29.61	29.77	-19.20	36832902	Balance	2	7
2024-01-26	29.92	29.76	-18.02	31746843	Balance	-1	5
2024-01-19	29.84	29.73	-18.42	30248222	Rotation Up	2	9
2024-01-12	29.86	29.69	-16.82	47772219	Rotation Up	16	24
2024-01-05	29.91	29.68	-14.79	30084112	Rotation Up	17	25
2023-12-29	30.97	29.64	-15.42	17183925	Rotation Up	30	31
2023-12-22	30.51	29.56	-17.22	28634533	Rotation Up	24	22
2023-12-15	29.71	29.51	-19.47	51799269	Rotation Up	14	20
2023-12-08	29.84	29.49	-17.22	31031757	Rotation Up	5	20
2023-12-01	29.90	29.49	-17.40	52689608	Downward Expansion	5	20
2023-11-24	30.32	29.51	-16.91	20128752	Downward Expansion	-8	20
2023-11-17	29.49	29.50	-19.18	38047455	Downward Expansion	-32	21
2023-11-10	28.78	29.60	-20.23	36955995	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2023-11-03	28.92	29.71	-18.21	52001372	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2023-10-27	27.76	29.84	-17.21	58480969	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2023-10-20	26.63	29.99	-23.40	35896023	Downward Expansion	-80	88

Price vs TrendAbove+5.7%

Trend directionRising+3.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+4.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+0.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.2%

Price momentumPositive+19.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.88×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

36 / ±100

-15.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

15 /100

-16.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

KDP Directional State ↗ KDP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance47

Rotation Up34

Upward Expansion57

Deceleration82

Rotation Down26

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 25%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-04	2026-10-09	Developing	-1.8%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-28	Developing	+2.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-07-24	Developing	-0.5%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-05-22	New	+0.1%
Rotation Down	2026-04-10	2026-04-24	New	+9.2%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-04-03	New	-4.0%
Rotation Up	2026-02-27	2026-03-13	New	-9.5%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-02-20	Developing	+6.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-12-12	Established	+9.4%
Rotation Down	2025-08-29	2025-09-05	New	-1.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2025-08-22	New	+0.0%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-08-15	Developing	+4.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-05-23	New	-4.3%
Rotation Up	2025-03-28	2025-04-25	Developing	+2.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing30

Stage 2 · Advancing80

Stage 3 · Distribution55

Stage 4 · Declining20

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 31/100
Current Relative Strength: -4.15
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +19.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -3.4%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 25th percentile8 in cohort

Test KDP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.83×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.88×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore KDP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 31.20falling

Slow Activity USD 30.94rising

Trend Reference USD 30.03+5.7% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 30.44+4.3% close margin

Structural low USD 25.56shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.2%

Annualized volatility +26.8%

From structural high -6.1%

From structural low +27.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	-1.7%-22.8% to +12.0%	+43.8%	+43.8%	-4.8%	+56.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+1.4%-20.3% to +7.1%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+0.2%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-4.9%-19.8% to -2.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-14.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-0.7%-11.8% to +1.2%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-9.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

KDP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map