Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

TNDM Stage Analysis

Tandem Diabetes Care Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 16.11Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and expanding.

Direction -50−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 46/100directional strength

Maturity 11/100lifecycle context

Confidence 64/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -36.5%USD 25.38 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	16.11	18.25	-26.57	9878891	Downward Expansion	-50	46
2026-10-02	16.50	18.43	-24.74	11540739	Balance	-48	41
2026-09-25	15.72	18.59	-27.92	13087921	Balance	-26	31
2026-09-18	16.87	18.90	-20.04	12950162	Balance	-15	18
2026-09-11	17.11	19.16	-18.04	6585380	Rotation Up	-1	9
2026-09-04	19.90	19.22	-5.03	6669640	Rotation Up	33	48
2026-08-28	21.43	19.20	3.03	5321636	Rotation Up	27	60
2026-08-21	22.32	19.15	8.32	9128900	Rotation Up	31	60
2026-08-14	22.72	19.07	8.25	8913019	Rotation Up	35	52
2026-08-07	22.38	18.98	8.70	18853301	Downward Expansion	32	31
2026-07-31	19.50	18.96	0.31	9240072	Downward Expansion	-17	12
2026-07-24	17.12	19.03	-11.42	7469663	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2026-07-17	17.08	19.20	-13.23	9245301	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2026-07-10	15.41	19.37	-25.06	7121082	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2026-07-03	15.32	19.57	-24.51	5553628	Downward Expansion	-61	39
2026-06-26	16.24	19.75	-19.76	13830457	Downward Expansion	-44	26
2026-06-19	15.30	19.91	-28.37	8229264	Downward Expansion	-52	27
2026-06-12	16.60	20.11	-21.15	14094976	Downward Expansion	-55	30
2026-06-05	19.34	20.18	-7.02	14129913	Downward Expansion	-57	52
2026-05-29	17.20	20.08	-21.64	12647291	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2026-05-22	14.96	19.97	-30.53	13197616	Balance	-65	72
2026-05-15	12.82	19.97	-40.52	17524475	Balance	-51	60
2026-05-08	15.48	20.03	-29.59	16990249	Balance	-43	40
2026-05-01	19.42	19.98	-8.26	8671942	Balance	-13	15
2026-04-24	20.36	19.83	-3.24	7454203	Balance	10	15
2026-04-17	20.61	19.55	-0.36	8202317	Balance	10	16
2026-04-10	19.18	19.28	-1.92	7126692	Balance	14	12
2026-04-03	18.61	19.05	-0.97	6777675	Upward Expansion	16	9
2026-03-27	21.00	18.85	15.63	9597178	Upward Expansion	48	26
2026-03-20	24.82	18.57	31.94	11907757	Upward Expansion	67	50
2026-03-13	21.59	18.14	12.53	9033790	Upward Expansion	54	44
2026-03-06	21.14	17.78	8.83	8811011	Upward Expansion	54	41
2026-02-27	25.30	17.45	28.52	25402576	Deceleration	74	49
2026-02-20	24.57	17.12	24.34	17444284	Deceleration	72	38
2026-02-13	18.95	16.83	-4.07	4877873	Deceleration	28	22
2026-02-06	19.17	16.69	-5.90	4972726	Deceleration	32	23
2026-01-30	19.89	16.57	-6.33	6692360	Deceleration	39	25
2026-01-23	19.90	16.47	-8.44	5608678	Upward Expansion	44	33
2026-01-16	20.16	16.43	-8.90	6410517	Upward Expansion	50	44
2026-01-09	21.70	16.44	-4.60	7368265	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-01-02	21.55	16.40	-5.01	3264917	Upward Expansion	66	61
2025-12-26	22.35	16.38	-4.98	4176037	Upward Expansion	73	71
2025-12-19	22.07	16.30	-6.68	9504659	Rotation Up	74	83
2025-12-12	21.39	16.25	-10.57	8310913	Rotation Up	46	78
2025-12-05	20.92	16.31	-15.32	8855588	Rotation Up	46	78
2025-11-28	21.01	16.38	-15.09	9356421	Rotation Up	56	79
2025-11-21	21.28	16.39	-10.88	16090064	Rotation Up	53	73
2025-11-14	18.61	16.28	-25.36	14011942	Balance	43	51
2025-11-07	16.26	16.22	-35.63	14754655	Balance	9	20
2025-10-31	14.00	16.25	-47.10	7455548	Balance	-15	17
2025-10-24	14.95	16.35	-43.53	7219627	Downward Expansion	-14	20
2025-10-17	14.79	16.49	-43.91	9926681	Downward Expansion	-32	22
2025-10-10	14.00	16.68	-46.72	10153163	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2025-10-03	14.71	16.85	-46.48	9335782	Downward Expansion	-43	34
2025-09-26	12.00	16.96	-56.94	7626561	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2025-09-19	12.57	17.29	-56.31	11412762	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2025-09-12	12.27	17.91	-57.65	8573143	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-09-05	12.58	18.62	-56.99	6726243	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2025-08-29	12.51	19.40	-57.97	9664706	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2025-08-22	11.93	20.22	-61.03	10462331	Downward Expansion	-70	85
2025-08-15	10.82	21.04	-65.88	14016564	Downward Expansion	-84	86
2025-08-08	11.23	21.85	-65.33	23188579	Downward Expansion	-89	86
2025-08-01	15.40	22.67	-51.74	8715994	Downward Expansion	-68	79
2025-07-25	15.89	23.39	-52.35	7441786	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2025-07-18	14.77	24.09	-56.15	9082584	Downward Expansion	-80	84
2025-07-11	15.59	24.79	-54.09	9117788	Downward Expansion	-79	77
2025-07-04	16.78	25.36	-51.76	9360615	Downward Expansion	-67	50
2025-06-27	18.94	25.80	-45.61	7567842	Downward Expansion	-53	39
2025-06-20	20.22	26.19	-40.43	4287936	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2025-06-13	20.76	26.55	-39.77	7323279	Downward Expansion	-41	34
2025-06-06	20.78	26.77	-41.02	7025568	Downward Expansion	-40	30
2025-05-30	19.82	27.09	-43.66	6015404	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2025-05-23	20.72	27.50	-41.23	6709986	Downward Expansion	-35	28
2025-05-16	23.08	27.85	-37.35	7488863	Downward Expansion	-39	28
2025-05-09	22.98	28.26	-34.42	7790503	Downward Expansion	-47	38
2025-05-02	21.48	28.73	-39.68	11528401	Downward Expansion	-54	52
2025-04-25	18.06	29.41	-48.35	6782638	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2025-04-18	16.86	30.22	-49.27	5744218	Downward Expansion	-73	68
2025-04-11	17.06	31.15	-50.29	11401270	Downward Expansion	-75	76
2025-04-04	16.88	32.04	-47.65	5872788	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2025-03-28	19.28	32.89	-46.60	4673901	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2025-03-21	20.29	33.70	-45.65	6704123	Downward Expansion	-71	90
2025-03-14	19.17	34.51	-48.85	11193172	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2025-03-07	17.96	35.36	-53.56	13670555	Downward Expansion	-91	92
2025-02-28	22.14	36.01	-45.05	21650186	Downward Expansion	-83	74
2025-02-21	31.00	36.66	-26.02	4037958	Balance	-51	30
2025-02-14	33.47	36.97	-22.07	5152825	Balance	-29	14
2025-02-07	36.10	37.31	-13.39	3882845	Balance	-6	13
2025-01-31	37.06	37.64	-10.65	3484777	Balance	-0	10
2025-01-24	36.50	37.75	-12.87	3876607	Balance	-4	14
2025-01-17	35.15	37.88	-14.52	5646584	Balance	-9	18
2025-01-10	36.00	38.13	-9.76	3970436	Downward Expansion	-18	24
2025-01-03	36.83	38.44	-9.53	3544053	Downward Expansion	-18	23
2024-12-27	36.88	38.84	-10.09	2849769	Downward Expansion	-27	21
2024-12-20	35.91	39.32	-11.70	8583529	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2024-12-13	32.66	39.85	-21.55	6965253	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2024-12-06	30.11	40.34	-27.29	6011908	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2024-11-29	30.63	40.81	-23.69	3907651	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2024-11-22	30.81	41.28	-22.54	7954707	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2024-11-15	27.34	41.43	-29.79	8522568	Downward Expansion	-82	89
2024-11-08	30.60	41.53	-23.94	12523322	Downward Expansion	-75	83
2024-11-01	31.91	41.63	-15.89	5276496	Downward Expansion	-75	80
2024-10-25	31.35	41.69	-18.23	6499029	Balance	-77	73
2024-10-18	35.34	41.82	-7.42	5868360	Balance	-37	44
2024-10-11	37.07	41.65	-2.26	7321532	Balance	-30	23
2024-10-04	41.78	41.37	12.27	5332061	Deceleration	24	9
2024-09-27	42.45	41.00	15.16	7674783	Deceleration	31	14
2024-09-20	44.63	40.51	23.23	5492569	Deceleration	41	20
2024-09-13	43.97	39.99	24.32	5038007	Deceleration	37	21
2024-09-06	42.40	39.34	28.11	3892675	Deceleration	34	21
2024-08-30	43.50	38.70	24.83	4333774	Deceleration	31	16
2024-08-23	44.60	38.03	27.57	5950761	Deceleration	33	15
2024-08-16	44.70	37.30	29.81	5302263	Deceleration	22	14
2024-08-09	37.50	36.64	15.22	11311246	Deceleration	-1	10
2024-08-02	41.67	36.24	28.68	15267745	Deceleration	21	14
2024-07-26	40.05	35.78	19.96	8657497	Deceleration	30	16
2024-07-19	43.66	35.43	27.15	5715970	Deceleration	35	22
2024-07-12	46.07	34.96	28.98	6532117	Deceleration	41	28
2024-07-05	40.42	34.38	13.25	4599310	Deceleration	35	30
2024-06-28	40.29	33.83	17.35	16419899	Upward Expansion	44	33
2024-06-21	42.84	33.20	25.28	4981055	Upward Expansion	61	54
2024-06-14	45.33	32.40	33.55	6362376	Upward Expansion	66	70
2024-06-07	48.85	31.48	49.80	5479186	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-05-31	51.23	30.33	62.94	4969125	Upward Expansion	79	92
2024-05-24	51.73	29.15	63.89	10761520	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-05-17	47.30	28.02	53.46	6098704	Upward Expansion	84	91
2024-05-10	44.36	27.09	47.93	7985161	Upward Expansion	84	77
2024-05-03	44.72	26.20	51.31	13056119	Upward Expansion	89	65
2024-04-26	35.24	25.35	20.25	7009757	Upward Expansion	72	51
2024-04-19	30.43	24.86	6.67	5880016	Upward Expansion	62	56
2024-04-12	33.50	24.54	9.70	4827539	Upward Expansion	67	72
2024-04-05	33.66	24.14	8.04	6577603	Upward Expansion	70	73
2024-03-29	35.41	23.81	11.10	7976970	Upward Expansion	83	78
2024-03-22	30.26	23.55	-6.75	9010179	Upward Expansion	65	67
2024-03-15	28.62	23.45	-10.77	7461780	Upward Expansion	59	67
2024-03-08	30.70	23.47	-7.08	22154805	Upward Expansion	70	65
2024-03-01	27.58	23.39	-19.03	10208583	Deceleration	55	36
2024-02-23	29.13	23.58	-14.43	11751892	Deceleration	63	30
2024-02-16	24.42	23.80	-28.27	6943432	Deceleration	-3	15
2024-02-09	23.30	24.09	-33.90	4354981	Deceleration	-3	17
2024-02-02	23.22	24.32	-34.22	4821683	Deceleration	1	15
2024-01-26	22.91	24.36	-35.71	7167150	Rotation Up	7	9
2024-01-19	24.75	24.41	-31.41	8649568	Rotation Up	22	29
2024-01-12	25.66	24.42	-28.37	7839438	Rotation Up	27	56
2024-01-05	27.80	24.47	-21.36	6480770	Rotation Up	29	67
2023-12-29	29.58	24.36	-20.69	3527048	Rotation Up	39	69
2023-12-22	29.49	24.20	-22.28	6690976	Rotation Up	44	50
2023-12-15	28.63	24.11	-25.16	11213968	Downward Expansion	20	33
2023-12-08	24.01	24.09	-36.19	8293109	Downward Expansion	-18	22
2023-12-01	21.19	24.39	-44.39	6825697	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2023-11-24	19.05	24.85	-50.85	3374132	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2023-11-17	17.79	25.54	-54.48	10086107	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2023-11-10	14.28	26.19	-63.35	9705070	Downward Expansion	-80	83
2023-11-03	15.75	27.10	-59.18	14176405	Downward Expansion	-77	76
2023-10-27	17.99	27.96	-51.18	8885136	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2023-10-20	19.32	28.71	-50.28	7590816	Downward Expansion	-65	67

Price vs TrendBelow-11.7%

Trend directionFalling-3.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-36.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+4.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-26.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.5%

Price momentumNegative-16.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.03×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-50 / ±100

-48.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

46 /100

+37.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TNDM Directional State ↗ TNDM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance34

Rotation Up7

Upward Expansion13

Deceleration51

Rotation Down72

Downward Expansion76

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 15%Downward Expansion 43%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	-2.2%
Rotation Up	2026-08-14	2026-09-11	Developing	-24.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-08-07	Developing	+30.1%
Balance	2026-04-10	2026-05-22	Developing	-22.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-04-03	Developing	-12.0%
Deceleration	2026-01-30	2026-02-27	Developing	+27.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-01-23	Developing	-11.0%
Rotation Up	2025-11-21	2025-12-19	Developing	+3.7%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	+32.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-10-24	Extended	-32.5%
Balance	2025-01-17	2025-02-21	Developing	-11.8%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-01	2025-01-10	Developing	+12.8%
Balance	2024-10-11	2024-10-25	New	-15.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing63

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution16

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: -26.57
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -16.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -38.9%
Healthcare regime cohort: 6th percentile286 in cohort

Test TNDM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.97×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.03×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TNDM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 16.30falling

Slow Activity USD 18.00falling

Trend Reference USD 18.25-11.7% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 25.38-36.5% close margin

Structural low USD 12.26shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +17.1%

Annualized volatility +73.8%

From structural high -45.7%

From structural low +31.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	37	-1.2%-36.0% to +54.8%	+43.2%	+56.8%	-4.0%	+86.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	-0.7%-51.3% to +67.9%	+38.5%	+61.5%	-12.4%	+69.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-33.8%-50.6% to +31.6%	+16.7%	+83.3%	-33.7%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-56.1%-64.5% to -30.4%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-73.5%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TNDM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map